Precipitation, landscape properties and land use interactively affect water quality of tropical freshwaters.

Globally, conversion of pristine areas to anthropogenic landscapes is one of the main causes of ecosystem service losses. Land uses associated with urbanization and farming can be major sources of pollution to freshwaters promoting artificial inputs of several elements, leading to impaired water quality. However, how the effects of land use on freshwater quality are contingent on properties of the local landscape and climate is still poorly understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of landscape properties (morphometric measurements of lakes and their catchments), precipitation patterns, and land use properties (extent and proximity of the land use to freshwaters) on water quality of 98 natural lakes and reservoirs in northeast Brazil. Water quality impairment (WQI) was expressed as a composite variable incorporating parameters correlated with eutrophication including nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and Chlorophyll-a concentration. Regression tree analysis showed that WQI is mainly related to highly impacted "buffer areas". However, the effects of land use in these adjacent lands were contingent on precipitation variability for 13% of waterbodies and on surface area of the buffer in relation to the volume of waterbody (BA:Vol) for 87% of waterbodies. Overall, effects on WQI originating from the land use in the adjacent portion of the lake were amplified by high precipitation variability for ecosystems with highly impacted buffer areas and by high BA:Vol for ecosystems with less impacted buffer areas, indicating that ecosystems subjected to intense episodic rainfall events (e.g. storms) and higher buffer areas relative to aquatic ecosystem size (i.e. small waterbodies) are more susceptible to impacts of land use. Land use at the catchment scale was important for the largest ecosystems. Thus, our findings point toward the need for considering a holistic approach to managing water quality, which includes watershed management within the context of climate change.

A conceptual model to assess the impact of anthropogenic drivers on water-related ecosystem services in the Brazilian Cerrado / Um modelo conceitual para avaliar o impacto de fatores antropogênicos nos serviços ecossistêmicos relacionados à água no Cerrado

Abstract: The development of strategies that conciliate anthropogenic activities with nature conservation is becoming increasingly urgent, particularly in regions facing rapid conversion of native vegetation to agriculture. Conceptual modelling enables assessment of how anthropogenic drivers (e.g. land use/land cover change and climate change) modify natural processes, being a useful tool to support strategic decision-making. The present work describes a conceptual model to evaluate water-related ecosystem service provision under different land use scenarios in the Matopiba region of the Brazilian Cerrado, the world's most biodiverse savanna and an agricultural frontier. Model variables were determined (direct drivers, indirect drivers, focal components and responses) and the Nature Futures Framework was consulted to incorporate socio-ecological components and feedbacks. Future scenarios were developed considering potential trajectories of drivers and governance responses that may impact land use in the region, including the possibility of full compliance with Forest Code and implementation of the Soy Moratorium in the region. The conceptual model and scenarios developed in the present study may be useful to improve understanding of the complex interactions among anthropogenic drivers, water-related ecosystem services and their potential repercussions for natural and social systems of the region. Governance decisions will be critical to maintaining the ecosystems of the region, the services it provides and the culture and tradition of the people historically embedded in the landscape. In acknowledgment of humanity's dependence on nature, the importance of inverting the way scenarios are used is highlighted. Rather than using scenarios to measure the impacts of different policy options on nature, scenarios representing the desired outcomes for biodiversity and ecosystem services can be used to inform how policies can guarantee ecosystem integrity into the future.

Resumo: O desenvolvimento de estratégias que conciliem atividades antropogênicas com a conservação da natureza tem se tornado cada vez mais urgente, principalmente em regiões que enfrentam uma rápida conversão da vegetação nativa em agricultura. Modelos conceituais permitem avaliar como fatores antropogênicos (por exemplo, mudança de uso e cobertura do solo e mudanças climáticas) modificam os processos naturais, sendo uma ferramenta útil para apoiar a tomada de decisões estratégicas. O presente trabalho descreve um modelo conceitual para avaliar a provisão de serviços ecossistêmicos relacionados à água sob diferentes cenários de uso do solo na região de Matopiba, no Cerrado, a savana com maior biodiversidade do mundo e uma fronteira agrícola. Foram determinadas as variáveis do modelo (fatores diretos, fatores indiretos, componentes focais e respostas) e o Nature Futures Framework foi consultado para incorporar componentes socioeconômicos e feedbacks. Cenários futuros foram desenvolvidos considerando possíveis trajetórias de fatores antropogênicos e respostas de governança que podem impactar o uso do solo na região, incluindo a possibilidade de cumprimento total do Código Florestal e a implementação da Moratória da Soja na região. O modelo conceitual e os cenários apresentados no presente trabalho podem ser úteis para melhorar a compreensão das complexas interações entre fatores antropogênicos, serviços ecossistêmicos relacionados à água e suas possíveis implicações para os sistemas naturais e sociais da região. Decisões de governança serão críticas para manter os ecossistemas da região, os serviços fornecidos por eles, a cultura e tradição das pessoas historicamente inseridas na paisagem. Em reconhecimento da dependência da humanidade em relação à natureza, destaca-se a importância de inverter a maneira como os cenários são usualmente usados. Em vez de mensurar os impactos de diferentes políticas na natureza, cenários representando os resultados desejados para biodiversidade e serviços ecossistêmicos podem ser usados para informar como políticas podem garantir a integridade dos ecossistemas no futuro.

Effects of seasonality, trophic state and landscape properties on CO2 saturation in low-latitude lakes and reservoirs.

The role of tropical lakes and reservoirs in the global carbon cycle has received increasing attention in the past decade, but our understanding of its variability is still limited. The metabolism of tropical systems may differ profoundly from temperate systems due to the higher temperatures and wider variations in precipitation. Here, we investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of the variability in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and its drivers in a set of 102 low-latitude lakes and reservoirs that encompass wide gradients of precipitation, productivity and landscape properties (lake area, perimeter-to-area ratio, catchment size, catchment area-to-lake area ratio, and types of catchment land use). We used multiple regressions and structural equation modeling (SEM) to determine the direct and indirect effects of the main in-lake variables and landscape properties on the water pCO2 variance. We found that these systems were mostly supersaturated with CO2 (92% spatially and 72% seasonally) regardless of their trophic status and landscape properties. The pCO2 values (9-40,020 µatm) were within the range found in tropical ecosystems, and higher (p < 0.005) than pCO2 values recorded from high-latitude ecosystems. Water volume had a negative effect on the trophic state (r = -0.63), which mediated a positive indirect effect on pCO2 (r = 0.4), representing an important negative feedback in the context of climate change-driven reduction in precipitation. Our results demonstrated that precipitation drives the pCO2 seasonal variability, with significantly higher pCO2 during the rainy season (F = 16.67; p < 0.001), due to two potential main mechanisms: (1) phytoplankton dilution and (2) increasing inputs of terrestrial CO2 from the catchment. We conclude that at low latitudes, precipitation is a major climatic driver of pCO2 variability by influencing volume variations and linking lentic ecosystems to their catchments.