Temporal changes in the positivity rate of common enteric viruses among paediatric admissions in coastal Kenya, during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2019-2022.

BACKGROUND: The non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented to curb the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, substantially disrupted the activity of other respiratory viruses. However, there is limited data from low-and-middle income countries (LMICs) to determine whether these NPIs also impacted the transmission of common enteric viruses. Here, we investigated the changes in the positivity rate of five enteric viruses among hospitalised children who presented with diarrhoea to a referral hospital in coastal Kenya, during COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: A total of 870 stool samples from children under 13 years of age admitted to Kilifi County Hospital between January 2019, and December 2022 were screened for rotavirus group A (RVA), norovirus genogroup II (GII), astrovirus, sapovirus, and adenovirus type F40/41 using real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. The proportions positive across the four years were compared using the chi-squared test statistic. RESULTS: One or more of the five virus targets were detected in 282 (32.4%) cases. A reduction in the positivity rate of RVA cases was observed from 2019 (12.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 8.7-16.2%) to 2020 (1.7%, 95% CI 0.2-6.0%; p < 0.001). However, in the 2022, RVA positivity rate rebounded to 23.5% (95% CI 18.2%-29.4%). For norovirus GII, the positivity rate fluctuated over the four years with its highest positivity rate observed in 2020 (16.2%; 95% C.I, 10.0-24.1%). No astrovirus cases were detected in 2020 and 2021, but the positivity rate in 2022 was similar to that in 2019 (3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.7%) vs. 3.3% (95% CI 1.4-6.5%)). A higher case fatality rate was observed in 2021 (9.0%) compared to the 2019 (3.2%), 2020 (6.8%) and 2022 (2.1%) (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our study finds that in 2020 the transmission of common enteric viruses, especially RVA and astrovirus, in Kilifi Kenya may have been disrupted due to the COVID-19 NPIs. After 2020, local enteric virus transmission patterns appeared to return to pre-pandemic levels coinciding with the removal of most of the government COVID-19 NPIs.

Changes in the global hospitalisation burden of respiratory syncytial virus in young children during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is reported to have affected the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which could have important implications for RSV prevention and control strategies. We aimed to assess the hospitalisation burden of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in children younger than 5 years during the pandemic period and the possible changes in RSV epidemiology from a global perspective. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search for studies published between Jan 1, 2020, and June 30, 2022, in MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Web of Science, the WHO COVID-19 Research Database, CINAHL, LILACS, OpenGrey, CNKI, WanFang, and CqVip. We included unpublished data on RSV epidemiology shared by international collaborators. Eligible studies reported data on at least one of the following measures for children (aged <5 years) hospitalised with RSV-associated ALRI: hospital admission rates, in-hospital case fatality ratio, and the proportion of hospitalised children requiring supplemental oxygen or requiring mechanical ventilation or admission to intensive care. We used a generalised linear mixed-effects model for data synthesis to measure the changes in the incidence, age distribution, and disease severity of children hospitalised with RSV-associated ALRI during the pandemic, compared with the year 2019. FINDINGS: We included 61 studies from 19 countries, of which 14 (23%) studies were from the published literature (4052 identified records) and 47 (77%) were from unpublished datasets. Most (51 [84%]) studies were from high-income countries; nine (15%) were from upper-middle-income countries, one (2%) was from a lower-middle-income country (Kenya), and none were from a low-income country. 15 studies contributed to the estimates of hospitalisation rate and 57 studies contributed to the severity analyses. Compared with 2019, the rates of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation in all children (aged 0-60 months) in 2020 decreased by 79·7% (325 000 cases vs 66 000 cases) in high-income countries, 13·8% (581 000 cases vs 501 000 cases) in upper-middle-income countries, and 42·3% (1 378 000 cases vs 795 000 cases) in Kenya. In high-income countries, annualised rates started to rise in 2021, and by March, 2022, had returned to a level similar to 2019 (6·0 cases per 1000 children [95% uncertainty interval 5·4-6·8] in April, 2021, to March, 2022, vs 5·0 cases per 1000 children [3·6-6·8] in 2019). By contrast, in middle-income countries, rates remained lower in the latest period with data available than in 2019 (for upper-middle-income countries, 2·1 cases [0·7-6·1] in April, 2021, to March, 2022, vs 3·4 [1·2-9·7] in 2019; for Kenya, 2·2 cases [1·8-2·7] in 2021 vs 4·1 [3·5-4·7] in 2019). Across all time periods and income regions, hospitalisation rates peaked in younger infants (aged 0 to <3 months) and decreased with increasing age. A significantly higher proportion of children aged 12-24 months were hospitalised with RSV-associated ALRI in high-income and upper-middle-income countries during the pandemic years than in 2019, with odds ratios ranging from 1·30 (95% uncertainty interval 1·07-1·59) to 2·05 (1·66-2·54). No consistent changes in disease severity were observed. INTERPRETATION: The hospitalisation burden of RSV-associated ALRI in children younger than 5 years was significantly reduced during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rebound in hospitalisation rates to pre-pandemic rates observed in the high-income region but not in the middle-income region by March, 2022, suggests a persistent negative impact of the pandemic on health-care systems and health-care access in the middle-income region. RSV surveillance needs to be established (or re-established) to monitor changes in RSV epidemiology, particularly in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. FUNDING: EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Preparing for RSV Immunisation and Surveillance in Europe (PROMISE), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and WHO.

Genetic and potential antigenic evolution of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses circulating in Kenya during 2009-2018 influenza seasons.

Influenza viruses undergo rapid evolutionary changes, which requires continuous surveillance to monitor for genetic and potential antigenic changes in circulating viruses that can guide control and prevention decision making. We sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed A(H1N1)pdm09 virus genome sequences obtained from specimens collected from hospitalized patients of all ages with or without pneumonia between 2009 and 2018 from seven sentinel surveillance sites across Kenya. We compared these sequences with recommended vaccine strains during the study period to infer genetic and potential antigenic changes in circulating viruses and associations of clinical outcome. We generated and analyzed a total of 383 A(H1N1)pdm09 virus genome sequences. Phylogenetic analyses of HA protein revealed that multiple genetic groups (clades, subclades, and subgroups) of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus circulated in Kenya over the study period; these evolved away from their vaccine strain, forming clades 7 and 6, subclades 6C, 6B, and 6B.1, and subgroups 6B.1A and 6B.1A1 through acquisition of additional substitutions. Several amino acid substitutions among circulating viruses were associated with continued evolution of the viruses, especially in antigenic epitopes and receptor binding sites (RBS) of circulating viruses. Disease severity declined with an increase in age among children aged < 5 years. Our study highlights the necessity of timely genomic surveillance to monitor the evolutionary changes of influenza viruses. Routine influenza surveillance with broad geographic representation and whole genome sequencing capacity to inform on prioritization of antigenic analysis and the severity of circulating strains are critical to improved selection of influenza strains for inclusion in vaccines.

New SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant with Spike Protein Mutation Y451H, Kilifi, Kenya, March-May 2023.

We report a newly emerged SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant FY.4 that has mutations Y451H in spike and P42L in open reading frame 3a proteins. FY.4 emergence coincided with increased SARS-CoV-2 cases in coastal Kenya during April-May 2023. Continued SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance is needed to identify new lineages to inform COVID-19 outbreak prevention.

Assessment of gestational age at antenatal care visits among Kenyan women to inform delivery of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in low- and middle-income countries.

Background: Maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines that are likely to be implementable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are in final stages of clinical trials. Data on the number of women presenting for antenatal care (ANC) per day and proportion attending within the proposed gestational window for vaccine delivery, is a prerequisite to guide development of vaccine vial size and inform vaccine uptake in this setting. Methods: We undertook administrative review and abstraction of ANC attendance records from 2019 registers of 24 selected health facilities, stratified by the level of care, from Kilifi, Siaya and Nairobi counties in Kenya. Additional data were obtained from Mother and Child Health (MCH) booklets of women in each of the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) areas of Kilifi, Nairobi and Siaya. Data analysis involved descriptive summaries of the number (mean, median) and proportion of women attending ANC within the gestational window period of 28-32 weeks and 24-36 weeks. Results: A total of 62,153 ANC records were abstracted, 33,872 from Kilifi, 19,438 from Siaya and 8,943 from Nairobi Counties. The median (Interquartile range, IQR) number of women attending ANC per day at a gestational age window of 28-32 and 24-36 weeks, respectively, were: 4 (2-6) and 7 (4-12) in dispensaries, 5 (2-9) and 10 (4-19) in health centres and 6 (4-11) and 16 (10-26) in county referral hospitals. In the HDSS areas of Kilifi, Siaya and Nairobi, pregnant women attending at least one ANC visit, within a window of 28-32 weeks, were: 77% (360/470), 75% (590/791) and 67% (547/821), respectively. Conclusions: About 70% of pregnant women across three distinct geographical regions in Kenya, attend ANC within 28-32 weeks of gestation. A multidose vial size with about five doses per vial, approximates daily ANC attendance and would not incur possible wastage in similar settings.

The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom.

Beginning in May 2022, Mpox virus spread rapidly in high-income countries through close human-to-human contact primarily amongst communities of gay, bisexual and men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Behavioural change arising from increased knowledge and health warnings may have reduced the rate of transmission and modified Vaccinia-based vaccination is likely to be an effective longer-term intervention. We investigate the UK epidemic presenting 26-week projections using a stochastic discrete-population transmission model which includes GBMSM status, rate of formation of new sexual partnerships, and clique partitioning of the population. The Mpox cases peaked in mid-July; our analysis is that the decline was due to decreased transmission rate per infected individual and infection-induced immunity among GBMSM, especially those with the highest rate of new partners. Vaccination did not cause Mpox incidence to turn over, however, we predict that a rebound in cases due to behaviour reversion was prevented by high-risk group-targeted vaccination.

Genomic epidemiology of the rotavirus G2P[4] strains in coastal Kenya pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine introduction, 2012-8.

The introduction of rotavirus vaccines into the national immunization programme in many countries has led to a decline in childhood diarrhoea disease burden. Coincidentally, the incidence of some rotavirus group A (RVA) genotypes has increased, which may result from non-vaccine-type replacement. Here, we investigate the evolutionary genomics of rotavirus G2P[4] which has shown an increase in countries that introduced the monovalent Rotarix® vaccine. We examined sixty-three RVA G2P[4] strains sampled from children (aged below 13 years) admitted to Kilifi County Hospital, coastal Kenya, pre- (2012 to June 2014) and post-(July 2014 to 2018) rotavirus vaccine introduction. All the sixty-three genome sequences showed a typical DS-1-like genome constellation (G2-P[4]-I2-R2-C2-M2-A2-N2-T2-E2-H2). Pre-vaccine G2 sequences predominantly classified as sub-lineage IVa-3 and co-circulated with low numbers of sub-lineage IVa-1 strains, whereas post-vaccine G2 sequences mainly classified into sub-lineage IVa-3. In addition, in the pre-vaccine period, P[4] sub-lineage IVa strains co-circulated with low numbers of P[4] lineage II strains, but P[4] sub-lineage IVa strains predominated in the post-vaccine period. On the global phylogeny, the Kenyan pre- and post-vaccine G2P[4] strains clustered separately, suggesting that different virus populations circulated in the two periods. However, the strains from both periods exhibited conserved amino acid changes in the known antigenic epitopes, suggesting that replacement of the predominant G2P[4] cluster was unlikely a result of immune escape. Our findings demonstrate that the pre- and post-vaccine G2P[4] strains circulating in Kilifi, coastal Kenya, differed genetically but likely were antigenically similar. This information informs the discussion on the consequences of rotavirus vaccination on rotavirus diversity.

Genomic epidemiology of human adenovirus F40 and F41 in coastal Kenya: A retrospective hospital-based surveillance study (2013-2022).

Human enteric adenovirus species F (HAdV-F) is a leading cause of childhood diarrhoeal deaths. The genomic analysis would be key to understanding transmission dynamics, potential drivers of disease severity, and vaccine development. However, currently, there are limited HAdV-F genomic data globally. Here, we sequenced and analysed HAdV-F from stool samples collected in coastal Kenya between 2013 and 2022. The samples were collected at Kilifi County Hospital in coastal Kenya from children <13 years of age who reported a history of three or more loose stools in the previous 24 hours. The genomes were analysed together with the data from the rest of the world by phylogenetic analysis and mutational profiling. Types and lineages were assigned based on phylogenetic clustering consistent with the previously described criteria and nomenclature. Participant clinical and demographic data were linked to genotypic data. Of ninety-one cases identified using real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction, eighty-eight near-complete genomes were assembled, and these were classified into HAdV-F40 (n = 41) and HAdV-F41 (n = 47). These types co-circulated throughout the study period. Three and four distinct lineages were observed for HAdV-F40 (Lineages 1-3) and HAdV-F41 (Lineages 1, 2A, 3A, 3C, and 3D). Types F40 and F41 coinfections were observed in five samples and F41 and B7 in one sample. Two children with F40 and 41 coinfections were also infected with rotavirus and had moderate and severe diseases as defined using the Vesikari Scoring System, respectively. Intratypic recombination was found in four HAdV-F40 sequences occurring between Lineages 1 and 3. None of the HAdV-F41 cases had jaundice. This study provides evidence of extensive genetic diversity, coinfections, and recombination within HAdV-F40 in a rural coastal Kenya that will inform public health policy, vaccine development that includes the locally circulating lineages, and molecular diagnostic assay development. We recommend future comprehensive studies elucidating on HAdV-F genetic diversity and immunity for rational vaccine development.

Phylogenomic analysis uncovers a 9-year variation of Uganda influenza type-A strains from the WHO-recommended vaccines and other Africa strains.

Genetic characterisation of circulating influenza viruses directs annual vaccine strain selection and mitigation of infection spread. We used next-generation sequencing to locally generate whole genomes from 116 A(H1N1)pdm09 and 118 A(H3N2) positive patient swabs collected across Uganda between 2010 and 2018. We recovered sequences from 92% (215/234) of the swabs, 90% (193/215) of which were whole genomes. The newly-generated sequences were genetically and phylogenetically compared to the WHO-recommended vaccines and other Africa strains sampled since 1994. Uganda strain hemagglutinin (n = 206), neuraminidase (n = 207), and matrix protein (MP, n = 213) sequences had 95.23-99.65%, 95.31-99.79%, and 95.46-100% amino acid similarity to the 2010-2020 season vaccines, respectively, with several mutated hemagglutinin antigenic, receptor binding, and N-linked glycosylation sites. Uganda influenza type-A virus strains sequenced before 2016 clustered uniquely while later strains mixed with other Africa and global strains. We are the first to report novel A(H1N1)pdm09 subclades 6B.1A.3, 6B.1A.5(a,b), and 6B.1A.6 (± T120A) that circulated in Eastern, Western, and Southern Africa in 2017-2019. Africa forms part of the global influenza ecology with high viral genetic diversity, progressive antigenic drift, and local transmissions. For a continent with inadequate health resources and where social distancing is unsustainable, vaccination is the best option. Hence, African stakeholders should prioritise routine genome sequencing and analysis to direct vaccine selection and virus control.

Estimates of the national burden of respiratory syncytial virus in Kenyan children aged under 5 years, 2010-2018.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is among the leading childhood causes of viral pneumonia worldwide. Establishing RSV-associated morbidity and mortality is important in informing the development, delivery strategies, and evaluation of interventions. METHODS: Using data collected during 2010-2018 from base regions (population-based surveillance studies in western Kenya and the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance Study), we estimated age-specific rates of acute respiratory illness (ARI), severe acute respiratory illness (SARI-defined as hospitalization with cough or difficulty breathing with onset within the past 10 days), and SARI-associated deaths. We extrapolated the rates from the base regions to other regions of Kenya, while adjusting for risk factors of ARI and healthcare seeking behavior, and finally applied the proportions of RSV-positive cases identified from various sentinel and study facilities to the rates to obtain regional age-specific rates of RSV-associated outpatient and non-medically attended ARI and hospitalized SARI and severe ARI that was not hospitalized (non-hospitalized SARI). We applied age-specific RSV case fatality ratios to SARI to obtain estimates of RSV-associated in- and out-of-hospital deaths. RESULTS: Among Kenyan children aged < 5 years, the estimated annual incidence of outpatient and non-medically attended RSV-associated ARI was 206 (95% credible interval, CI; 186-229) and 226 (95% CI; 204-252) per 1000 children, respectively. The estimated annual rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized RSV-associated SARI were 349 (95% CI; 303-404) and 1077 (95% CI; 934-1247) per 100,000 children respectively. The estimated annual number of in- and out-of-hospital deaths associated with RSV infection in Kenya were 539 (95% CI; 420-779) and 1921 (95% CI; 1495-2774), respectively. Children aged < 6 months had the highest burden of RSV-associated severe disease: 2075 (95% CI; 1818-2394) and 44 (95% CI 25-71) cases per 100,000 children for hospitalized SARI and in-hospital deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a substantial disease burden due to RSV infection, particularly among younger children. Prioritizing development and use of maternal vaccines and affordable long-lasting monoclonal antibodies could help reduce this burden.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibodies for respiratory syncytial virus in Kenya and South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial burden of acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5 years, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Maternal vaccine (MV) and next-generation monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates have been shown to reduce RSV disease in infants in phase 3 clinical trials. The cost-effectiveness of these biologics has been estimated using disease burden data from global meta-analyses, but these are sensitive to the detailed age breakdown of paediatric RSV disease, for which there have previously been limited data. METHODS: We use original hospital-based incidence data from South Africa (ZAF) and Kenya (KEN) collected between 2010 and 2018 of RSV-associated acute respiratory infection (ARI), influenza-like illness (ILI), and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) as well as deaths with monthly age-stratification, supplemented with data on healthcare-seeking behaviour and costs to the healthcare system and households. We estimated the incremental cost per DALY averted (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or ICER) of public health interventions by MV or mAb for a plausible range of prices (5-50 USD for MV, 10-125 USD for mAb), using an adjusted version of a previously published health economic model of RSV immunisation. RESULTS: Our data show higher disease incidence for infants younger than 6 months of age in the case of Kenya and South Africa than suggested by earlier projections from community incidence-based meta-analyses of LMIC data. Since MV and mAb provide protection for these youngest age groups, this leads to a substantially larger reduction of disease burden and, therefore, more favourable cost-effectiveness of both interventions in both countries. Using the latest efficacy data and inferred coverage levels based on antenatal care (ANC-3) coverage (KEN: 61.7%, ZAF: 75.2%), our median estimate of the reduction in RSV-associated deaths in children under 5 years in Kenya is 10.5% (95% CI: 7.9, 13.3) for MV and 13.5% (10.7, 16.4) for mAb, while in South Africa, it is 27.4% (21.6, 32.3) and 37.9% (32.3, 43.0), respectively. Starting from a dose price of 5 USD, in Kenya, net cost (for the healthcare system) per (undiscounted) DALY averted for MV is 179 (126, 267) USD, rising to 1512 (1166, 2070) USD at 30 USD per dose; for mAb, it is 684 (543, 895) USD at 20 USD per dose and 1496 (1203, 1934) USD at 40 USD per dose. In South Africa, a MV at 5 USD per dose would be net cost-saving for the healthcare system and net cost per DALY averted is still below the ZAF's GDP per capita at 40 USD dose price (median: 2350, 95% CI: 1720, 3346). For mAb in ZAF, net cost per DALY averted is 247 (46, 510) USD at 20 USD per dose, rising to 2028 (1565, 2638) USD at 50 USD per dose and to 6481 (5364, 7959) USD at 125 USD per dose. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporation of new data indicating the disease burden is highly concentrated in the first 6 months of life in two African settings suggests that interventions against RSV disease may be more cost-effective than previously estimated.

Serum immunoglobulin G and mucosal immunoglobulin A antibodies from prepandemic samples collected in Kilifi, Kenya, neutralize SARS-CoV-2 in vitro.

OBJECTIVES: Many regions of Africa have experienced lower COVID-19 morbidity and mortality than Europe. Pre-existing humoral responses to endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) may cross-protect against SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the neutralizing capacity of SARS-CoV-2 spike reactive and nonreactive immunoglobulin (Ig)G and IgA antibodies in prepandemic samples. METHODS: To investigate the presence of pre-existing immunity, we performed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay using spike antigens from reference SARS-CoV-2, HCoV HKU1, OC43, NL63, and 229E using prepandemic samples from Kilifi in coastal Kenya. In addition, we performed neutralization assays using pseudotyped reference SARS-CoV-2 to determine the functionality of the identified reactive antibodies. RESULTS: We demonstrate the presence of HCoV serum IgG and mucosal IgA antibodies, which cross-react with the SARS-CoV-2 spike. We show pseudotyped reference SARS-CoV-2 neutralization by prepandemic serum, with a mean infective dose 50 of 1: 251, which is 10-fold less than that of the pooled convalescent sera from patients with COVID-19 but still within predicted protection levels. The prepandemic naso-oropharyngeal fluid neutralized pseudo-SARS-CoV-2 at a mean infective dose 50 of 1: 5.9 in the neutralization assay. CONCLUSION: Our data provide evidence for pre-existing functional humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 in Kilifi, coastal Kenya and adds to data showing pre-existing immunity for COVID-19 from other regions.

Rhinovirus dynamics across different social structures.

Rhinoviruses (RV), common human respiratory viruses, exhibit significant antigenic diversity, yet their dynamics across distinct social structures remain poorly understood. Our study delves into RV dynamics within Kenya by analysing VP4/2 sequences across four different social structures: households, a public primary school, outpatient clinics in the Kilifi Health and Demographics Surveillance System (HDSS), and countrywide hospital admissions and outpatients. The study revealed the greatest diversity of RV infections at the countrywide level (114 types), followed by the Kilifi HDSS (78 types), the school (47 types), and households (40 types), cumulatively representing >90% of all known RV types. Notably, RV diversity correlated directly with the size of the population under observation, and several RV type variants occasionally fuelled RV infection waves. Our findings highlight the critical role of social structures in shaping RV dynamics, information that can be leveraged to enhance public health strategies. Future research should incorporate whole-genome analysis to understand fine-scale evolution across various social structures.

Identifying the research, advocacy, policy and implementation needs for the prevention and management of respiratory syncytial virus lower respiratory tract infection in low- and middle-income countries.

Introduction: The high burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in young children disproportionately occurs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The PROUD (Preventing RespiratOry syncytial virUs in unDerdeveloped countries) Taskforce of 24 RSV worldwide experts assessed key needs for RSV prevention in LMICs, including vaccine and newer preventive measures. Methods: A global, survey-based study was undertaken in 2021. An online questionnaire was developed following three meetings of the Taskforce panellists wherein factors related to RSV infection, its prevention and management were identified using iterative questioning. Each factor was scored, by non-panellists interested in RSV, on a scale of zero (very-low-relevance) to 100 (very-high-relevance) within two scenarios: (1) Current and (2) Future expectations for RSV management. Results: Ninety questionnaires were completed: 70 by respondents (71.4% physicians; 27.1% researchers/scientists) from 16 LMICs and 20 from nine high-income (HI) countries (90.0% physicians; 5.0% researchers/scientists), as a reference group. Within LMICs, RSV awareness was perceived to be low, and management was not prioritised. Of the 100 factors scored, those related to improved diagnosis particularly access to affordable point-of-care diagnostics, disease burden data generation, clinical and general education, prompt access to new interventions, and engagement with policymakers/payers were identified of paramount importance. There was a strong need for clinical education and local data generation in the lowest economies, whereas upper-middle income countries were more closely aligned with HI countries in terms of current RSV service provision. Conclusion: Seven key actions for improving RSV prevention and management in LMICs are proposed.

Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant childhood morbidity and mortality in the developing world. The determinants of RSV seasonality are of importance in designing interventions. They are poorly understood in tropical and sub-tropical regions in low- and middle-income countries. Our study utilized long-term surveillance data on cases of RSV associated with severe or very severe pneumonia in children aged 1 day to 59 months admitted to the Kilifi County Hospital. A generalized additive model was used to investigate the association between RSV admissions and meteorological variables (maximum temperature, rainfall, absolute humidity); weekly number of births within the catchment population; and school term dates. Furthermore, a time-series-susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model was used to reconstruct an empirical transmission rate which was used as a dependent variable in linear regression and generalized additive models with meteorological variables and school term dates. Maximum temperature, absolute humidity, and weekly number of births were significantly associated with RSV activity in the generalized additive model. Results from the TSIR model indicated that maximum temperature and absolute humidity were significant factors. Rainfall and school term did not yield significant relationships. Our study indicates that meteorological parameters and weekly number of births potentially play a role in the RSV seasonality in this region. More research is required to explore the underlying mechanisms underpinning the observed relationships.

A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while accounting for the highly heterogeneous risk profile of COVID-19. Models accounting either for age structure or the household structure necessary to explicitly model many NPIs are commonly used in infectious disease modelling, but models incorporating both levels of structure present substantial computational and mathematical challenges due to their high dimensionality. Here we present a modelling framework for the spread of an epidemic that includes explicit representation of age structure and household structure. Our model is formulated in terms of tractable systems of ordinary differential equations for which we provide an open-source Python implementation. Such tractability leads to significant benefits for model calibration, exhaustive evaluation of possible parameter values, and interpretability of results. We demonstrate the flexibility of our model through four policy case studies, where we quantify the likely benefits of the following measures which were either considered or implemented in the UK during the current COVID-19 pandemic: control of within- and between-household mixing through NPIs; formation of support bubbles during lockdown periods; out-of-household isolation (OOHI); and temporary relaxation of NPIs during holiday periods. Our ordinary differential equation formulation and associated analysis demonstrate that multiple dimensions of risk stratification and social structure can be incorporated into infectious disease models without sacrificing mathematical tractability. This model and its software implementation expand the range of tools available to infectious disease policy analysts.

Differences in epidemiology of enteropathogens in children pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine introduction in Kilifi, coastal Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Kenya introduced Rotarix® (GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Rixensart, Belgium) vaccination into its national immunization programme beginning July 2014. The impact of this vaccination program on the local epidemiology of various known enteropathogens is not fully understood. METHODS: We used a custom TaqMan Array Card (TAC) to screen for 28 different enteropathogens in 718 stools from children aged less than 13 years admitted to Kilifi County Hospital, coastal Kenya, following presentation with diarrhea in 2013 (before vaccine introduction) and in 2016-2018 (after vaccine introduction). Pathogen positivity rate differences between pre- and post-Rotarix® vaccination introduction were examined using both univariate and multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: In 665 specimens (92.6%), one or more enteropathogen was detected, while in 323 specimens (48.6%) three or more enteropathogens were detected. The top six detected enteropathogens were: enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (EAggEC; 42.1%), enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC; 30.2%), enterovirus (26.9%), rotavirus group A (RVA; 24.8%), parechovirus (16.6%) and norovirus GI/GII (14.4%). Post-rotavirus vaccine introduction, there was a significant increase in the proportion of samples testing positive for EAggEC (35.7% vs. 45.3%, p = 0.014), cytomegalovirus (4.2% vs. 9.9%, p = 0.008), Vibrio cholerae (0.0% vs. 2.3%, p = 0.019), Strongyloides species (0.8% vs. 3.6%, p = 0.048) and Dientamoeba fragilis (2.1% vs. 7.8%, p = 0.004). Although not reaching statistical significance, the positivity rate of adenovirus 40/41 (5.8% vs. 7.3%, p = 0.444), norovirus GI/GII (11.2% vs. 15.9%, p = 0.089), Shigella species (8.7% vs. 13.0%, p = 0.092) and Cryptosporidium spp. (11.6% vs. 14.7%, p = 0.261) appeared to increase post-vaccine introduction. Conversely, the positivity rate of sapovirus decreased significantly post-vaccine introduction (7.8% vs. 4.0%, p = 0.030) while that of RVA appeared not to change (27.4% vs. 23.5%, p = 0.253). More enteropathogen coinfections were detected per child post-vaccine introduction compared to before (mean: 2.7 vs. 2.3; p = 0.0025). CONCLUSIONS: In this rural Coastal Kenya setting, childhood enteropathogen infection burden was high both pre- and post-rotavirus vaccination introduction. Children who had diarrheal admissions post-vaccination showed an increase in coinfections and changes in specific enteropathogen positivity rates. This study highlights the utility of multipathogen detection platforms such as TAC in understanding etiology of childhood acute gastroenteritis in resource-limited regions.

Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: A few studies have assessed the epidemiological impact and the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in settings where most of the population had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya from a societal perspective over a 1.5-year time frame. An age-structured transmission model assumed at least 80% of the population to have prior natural immunity when an immune escape variant was introduced. We examine the effect of slow (18 months) or rapid (6 months) vaccine roll-out with vaccine coverage of 30%, 50% or 70% of the adult (>18 years) population prioritising roll-out in those over 50-years (80% uptake in all scenarios). Cost data were obtained from primary analyses. We assumed vaccine procurement at US$7 per dose and vaccine delivery costs of US$3.90-US$6.11 per dose. The cost-effectiveness threshold was US$919.11. FINDINGS: Slow roll-out at 30% coverage largely targets those over 50 years and resulted in 54% fewer deaths (8132 (7914-8373)) than no vaccination and was cost saving (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER=US$-1343 (US$-1345 to US$-1341) per disability-adjusted life-year, DALY averted). Increasing coverage to 50% and 70%, further reduced deaths by 12% (810 (757-872) and 5% (282 (251-317) but was not cost-effective, using Kenya's cost-effectiveness threshold (US$919.11). Rapid roll-out with 30% coverage averted 63% more deaths and was more cost-saving (ICER=US$-1607 (US$-1609 to US$-1604) per DALY averted) compared with slow roll-out at the same coverage level, but 50% and 70% coverage scenarios were not cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: With prior exposure partially protecting much of the Kenyan population, vaccination of young adults may no longer be cost-effective.

Transmission networks of SARS-CoV-2 in Coastal Kenya during the first two waves: A retrospective genomic study.

Background: Detailed understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) regional transmission networks within sub-Saharan Africa is key for guiding local public health interventions against the pandemic. Methods: Here, we analysed 1139 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from positive samples collected between March 2020 and February 2021 across six counties of Coastal Kenya (Mombasa, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Tana River, and Lamu) to infer virus introductions and local transmission patterns during the first two waves of infections. Virus importations were inferred using ancestral state reconstruction, and virus dispersal between counties was estimated using discrete phylogeographic analysis. Results: During Wave 1, 23 distinct Pango lineages were detected across the six counties, while during Wave 2, 29 lineages were detected; 9 of which occurred in both waves and 4 seemed to be Kenya specific (B.1.530, B.1.549, B.1.596.1, and N.8). Most of the sequenced infections belonged to lineage B.1 (n = 723, 63%), which predominated in both Wave 1 (73%, followed by lineages N.8 [6%] and B.1.1 [6%]) and Wave 2 (56%, followed by lineages B.1.549 [21%] and B.1.530 [5%]). Over the study period, we estimated 280 SARS-CoV-2 virus importations into Coastal Kenya. Mombasa City, a vital tourist and commercial centre for the region, was a major route for virus imports, most of which occurred during Wave 1, when many Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) government restrictions were still in force. In Wave 2, inter-county transmission predominated, resulting in the emergence of local transmission chains and diversity. Conclusions: Our analysis supports moving COVID-19 control strategies in the region from a focus on international travel to strategies that will reduce local transmission. Funding: This work was funded by The Wellcome (grant numbers: 220985, 203077/Z/16/Z, 220977/Z/20/Z, and 222574/Z/21/Z) and the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), project references: 17/63/and 16/136/33 using UK Aid from the UK government to support global health research, The UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the funding agencies.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in children younger than 5 years in 2019: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of acute lower respiratory infection in young children. We previously estimated that in 2015, 33·1 million episodes of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection occurred in children aged 0-60 months, resulting in a total of 118 200 deaths worldwide. Since then, several community surveillance studies have been done to obtain a more precise estimation of RSV associated community deaths. We aimed to update RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality at global, regional, and national levels in children aged 0-60 months for 2019, with focus on overall mortality and narrower infant age groups that are targeted by RSV prophylactics in development. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, we expanded our global RSV disease burden dataset by obtaining new data from an updated search for papers published between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2020, from MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Web of Science, LILACS, OpenGrey, CNKI, Wanfang, and ChongqingVIP. We also included unpublished data from RSV GEN collaborators. Eligible studies reported data for children aged 0-60 months with RSV as primary infection with acute lower respiratory infection in community settings, or acute lower respiratory infection necessitating hospital admission; reported data for at least 12 consecutive months, except for in-hospital case fatality ratio (CFR) or for where RSV seasonality is well-defined; and reported incidence rate, hospital admission rate, RSV positive proportion in acute lower respiratory infection hospital admission, or in-hospital CFR. Studies were excluded if case definition was not clearly defined or not consistently applied, RSV infection was not laboratory confirmed or based on serology alone, or if the report included fewer than 50 cases of acute lower respiratory infection. We applied a generalised linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) to estimate RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence, hospital admission, and in-hospital mortality both globally and regionally (by country development status and by World Bank Income Classification) in 2019. We estimated country-level RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence through a risk-factor based model. We developed new models (through GLMM) that incorporated the latest RSV community mortality data for estimating overall RSV mortality. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021252400). FINDINGS: In addition to 317 studies included in our previous review, we identified and included 113 new eligible studies and unpublished data from 51 studies, for a total of 481 studies. We estimated that globally in 2019, there were 33·0 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 25·4-44·6 million), 3·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (2·9-4·6 million), 26 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (15 100-49 100), and 101 400 RSV-attributable overall deaths (84 500-125 200) in children aged 0-60 months. In infants aged 0-6 months, we estimated that there were 6·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (4·6-9·7 million), 1·4 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (1·0-2·0 million), 13 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (6800-28 100), and 45 700 RSV-attributable overall deaths (38 400-55 900). 2·0% of deaths in children aged 0-60 months (UR 1·6-2·4) and 3·6% of deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months (3·0-4·4) were attributable to RSV. More than 95% of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes and more than 97% of RSV-attributable deaths across all age bands were in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). INTERPRETATION: RSV contributes substantially to morbidity and mortality burden globally in children aged 0-60 months, especially during the first 6 months of life and in LMICs. We highlight the striking overall mortality burden of RSV disease worldwide, with one in every 50 deaths in children aged 0-60 months and one in every 28 deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months attributable to RSV. For every RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital death, we estimate approximately three more deaths attributable to RSV in the community. RSV passive immunisation programmes targeting protection during the first 6 months of life could have a substantial effect on reducing RSV disease burden, although more data are needed to understand the implications of the potential age-shifts in peak RSV burden to older age when these are implemented. FUNDING: EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).