Taiwan ended third COVID-19 community outbreak as forecasted.

Accurate forecasting of community outbreaks is crucial for governments to allocate healthcare resources correctly and implement suitable non-pharmaceutical interventions. Additionally, companies must address critical questions about stock and staff management. Society's key concern is when businesses and organizations can resume normal operations. Between December 31st 2019 and 2021, Taiwan experienced three separate COVID-19 community outbreaks with significant time intervals in between, suggesting that each outbreak eventually came to an end. We identified the ratio of the 7-day average of local & unknown confirmed to suspected cases as the key control variable and forecasted the end of the third outbreak by the exponential model. We forecasted the end of the third outbreak on Aug. 16th with threshold ratios of 1.2 · 10 - 4 . The real observations crossed the threshold on Aug. 27th, eleven days later than forecasted, with the last case of the third outbreak confirmed and quarantined on Sept. 20th. This demonstrated the accuracy of the proposed forecasting method in predicting the end of a local outbreak. Furthermore, we highlight that the ratio reflects the effectiveness of contact tracing. Effective contact tracing together with testing and isolation of infected individuals is crucial for ending community outbreaks.

Ideal adaptive control in biological systems: an analysis of P -invariance and dynamical compensation properties.

BACKGROUND: Dynamical compensation (DC) provides robustness to parameter fluctuations. As an example, DC enables control of the functional mass of endocrine or neuronal tissue essential for controlling blood glucose by insulin through a nonlinear feedback loop. Researchers have shown that DC is related to the structural unidentifiability and the P -invariance property. The P -invariance property is a sufficient and necessary condition for the DC property. DC has been seen in systems with at least three dimensions. In this article, we discuss DC and P -invariance from an adaptive control perspective. An adaptive controller automatically adjusts its parameters to optimise performance, maintain stability, and deal with uncertainties in a system. RESULTS: We initiate our analysis by introducing a simplified two-dimensional dynamical model with DC, fostering experimentation and understanding of the system's behavior. We explore the system's behavior with time-varying input and disturbance signals, with a focus on illustrating the system's P -invariance properties in phase portraits and step-like response graphs. CONCLUSIONS: We show that DC can be seen as a case of ideal adaptive control since the system is invariant to the compensated parameter.

Age Prediction Using Resting-State Functional MRI.

The increasing lifespan and large individual differences in cognitive capability highlight the importance of comprehending the aging process of the brain. Contrary to visible signs of bodily ageing, like greying of hair and loss of muscle mass, the internal changes that occur within our brains remain less apparent until they impair function. Brain age, distinct from chronological age, reflects our brain's health status and may deviate from our actual chronological age. Notably, brain age has been associated with mortality and depression. The brain is plastic and can compensate even for severe structural damage by rewiring. Functional characterization offers insights that structural cannot provide. Contrary to the multitude of studies relying on structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), we utilize resting-state functional MRI (rsfMRI). We also address the issue of inclusion of subjects with abnormal brain ageing through outlier removal. In this study, we employ the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to identify the 39 most predictive correlations derived from the rsfMRI data. The data is from a cohort of 176 healthy right-handed volunteers, aged 18-78 years (95/81 male/female, mean age 48, SD 17) collected at the Mind Research Imaging Center at the National Cheng Kung University. We establish a normal reference model by excluding 68 outliers, which achieves a leave-one-out mean absolute error of 2.48 years. By asking which additional features that are needed to predict the chronological age of the outliers with a smaller error, we identify correlations predictive of abnormal aging. These are associated with the Default Mode Network (DMN). Our normal reference model has the lowest prediction error among published models evaluated on adult subjects of almost all ages and is thus a candidate for screening for abnormal brain aging that has not yet manifested in cognitive decline. This study advances our ability to predict brain aging and provides insights into potential biomarkers for assessing brain age, suggesting that the role of DMN in brain aging should be studied further.

ThermalProGAN: A sequence-based thermally stable protein generator trained using unpaired data.

MOTIVATION: The synthesis of proteins with novel desired properties is challenging but sought after by the industry and academia. The dominating approach is based on trial-and-error inducing point mutations, assisted by structural information or predictive models built with paired data that are difficult to collect. This study proposes a sequence-based unpaired-sample of novel protein inventor (SUNI) to build ThermalProGAN for generating thermally stable proteins based on sequence information. RESULTS: The ThermalProGAN can strongly mutate the input sequence with a median number of 32 residues. A known normal protein, 1RG0, was used to generate a thermally stable form by mutating 51 residues. After superimposing the two structures, high similarity is shown, indicating that the basic function would be conserved. Eighty four molecular dynamics simulation results of 1RG0 and the COVID-19 vaccine candidates with a total simulation time of 840[Formula: see text]ns indicate that the thermal stability increased. CONCLUSION: This proof of concept demonstrated that transfer of a desired protein property from one set of proteins is feasible. Availability and implementation: The source code of ThermalProGAN can be freely accessed at https://github.com/markliou/ThermalProGAN/ with an MIT license. The website is https://thermalprogan.markliou.tw:433. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available on Github.

Knowledge of the perturbation design is essential for accurate gene regulatory network inference.

The gene regulatory network (GRN) of a cell executes genetic programs in response to environmental and internal cues. Two distinct classes of methods are used to infer regulatory interactions from gene expression: those that only use observed changes in gene expression, and those that use both the observed changes and the perturbation design, i.e. the targets used to cause the changes in gene expression. Considering that the GRN by definition converts input cues to changes in gene expression, it may be conjectured that the latter methods would yield more accurate inferences but this has not previously been investigated. To address this question, we evaluated a number of popular GRN inference methods that either use the perturbation design or not. For the evaluation we used targeted perturbation knockdown gene expression datasets with varying noise levels generated by two different packages, GeneNetWeaver and GeneSpider. The accuracy was evaluated on each dataset using a variety of measures. The results show that on all datasets, methods using the perturbation design matrix consistently and significantly outperform methods not using it. This was also found to be the case on a smaller experimental dataset from E. coli. Targeted gene perturbations combined with inference methods that use the perturbation design are indispensable for accurate GRN inference.

Uncovering cancer gene regulation by accurate regulatory network inference from uninformative data.

The interactions among the components of a living cell that constitute the gene regulatory network (GRN) can be inferred from perturbation-based gene expression data. Such networks are useful for providing mechanistic insights of a biological system. In order to explore the feasibility and quality of GRN inference at a large scale, we used the L1000 data where ~1000 genes have been perturbed and their expression levels have been quantified in 9 cancer cell lines. We found that these datasets have a very low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) level causing them to be too uninformative to infer accurate GRNs. We developed a gene reduction pipeline in which we eliminate uninformative genes from the system using a selection criterion based on SNR, until reaching an informative subset. The results show that our pipeline can identify an informative subset in an overall uninformative dataset, allowing inference of accurate subset GRNs. The accurate GRNs were functionally characterized and potential novel cancer-related regulatory interactions were identified.

Perturbation-based gene regulatory network inference to unravel oncogenic mechanisms.

The gene regulatory network (GRN) of human cells encodes mechanisms to ensure proper functioning. However, if this GRN is dysregulated, the cell may enter into a disease state such as cancer. Understanding the GRN as a system can therefore help identify novel mechanisms underlying disease, which can lead to new therapies. To deduce regulatory interactions relevant to cancer, we applied a recent computational inference framework to data from perturbation experiments in squamous carcinoma cell line A431. GRNs were inferred using several methods, and the false discovery rate was controlled by the NestBoot framework. We developed a novel approach to assess the predictiveness of inferred GRNs against validation data, despite the lack of a gold standard. The best GRN was significantly more predictive than the null model, both in cross-validated benchmarks and for an independent dataset of the same genes under a different perturbation design. The inferred GRN captures many known regulatory interactions central to cancer-relevant processes in addition to predicting many novel interactions, some of which were experimentally validated, thus providing mechanistic insights that are useful for future cancer research.

A generalized framework for controlling FDR in gene regulatory network inference.

MOTIVATION: Inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from perturbation data can give detailed mechanistic insights of a biological system. Many inference methods exist, but the resulting GRN is generally sensitive to the choice of method-specific parameters. Even though the inferred GRN is optimal given the parameters, many links may be wrong or missing if the data is not informative. To make GRN inference reliable, a method is needed to estimate the support of each predicted link as the method parameters are varied. RESULTS: To achieve this we have developed a method called nested bootstrapping, which applies a bootstrapping protocol to GRN inference, and by repeated bootstrap runs assesses the stability of the estimated support values. To translate bootstrap support values to false discovery rates we run the same pipeline with shuffled data as input. This provides a general method to control the false discovery rate of GRN inference that can be applied to any setting of inference parameters, noise level, or data properties. We evaluated nested bootstrapping on a simulated dataset spanning a range of such properties, using the LASSO, Least Squares, RNI, GENIE3 and CLR inference methods. An improved inference accuracy was observed in almost all situations. Nested bootstrapping was incorporated into the GeneSPIDER package, which was also used for generating the simulated networks and data, as well as running and analyzing the inferences. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: https://bitbucket.org/sonnhammergrni/genespider/src/NB/%2B Methods/NestBoot.m.

Realization and direct observation of five normal and parametric modes in silicon nanowire resonators by in situ transmission electron microscopy.

Mechanical resonators have wide applications in sensing bio-chemical substances, and provide an accurate method to measure the intrinsic elastic properties of oscillating materials. A high resonance order with high response frequency and a small resonator mass are critical for enhancing the sensitivity and precision. Here, we report on the realization and direct observation of high-order and high-frequency silicon nanowire (Si NW) resonators. By using an oscillating electric-field for inducing a mechanical resonance of single-crystalline Si NWs inside a transmission electron microscope (TEM), we observed resonance up to the 5th order, for both normal and parametric modes at ∼100 MHz frequencies. The precision of the resonant frequency was enhanced, as the deviation reduced from 3.14% at the 1st order to 0.25% at the 5th order, correlating with the increase of energy dissipation. The elastic modulus of Si NWs was measured to be ∼169 GPa in the [110] direction, and size scaling effects were found to be absent down to the ∼20 nm level.

A crowdsourced analysis to identify ab initio molecular signatures predictive of susceptibility to viral infection.

The response to respiratory viruses varies substantially between individuals, and there are currently no known molecular predictors from the early stages of infection. Here we conduct a community-based analysis to determine whether pre- or early post-exposure molecular factors could predict physiologic responses to viral exposure. Using peripheral blood gene expression profiles collected from healthy subjects prior to exposure to one of four respiratory viruses (H1N1, H3N2, Rhinovirus, and RSV), as well as up to 24 h following exposure, we find that it is possible to construct models predictive of symptomatic response using profiles even prior to viral exposure. Analysis of predictive gene features reveal little overlap among models; however, in aggregate, these genes are enriched for common pathways. Heme metabolism, the most significantly enriched pathway, is associated with a higher risk of developing symptoms following viral exposure. This study demonstrates that pre-exposure molecular predictors can be identified and improves our understanding of the mechanisms of response to respiratory viruses.

YHMI: a web tool to identify histone modifications and histone/chromatin regulators from a gene list in yeast.

Post-translational modifications of histones (e.g. acetylation, methylation, phosphorylation and ubiquitination) play crucial roles in regulating gene expression by altering chromatin structures and creating docking sites for histone/chromatin regulators. However, the combination patterns of histone modifications, regulatory proteins and their corresponding target genes remain incompletely understood. Therefore, it is advantageous to have a tool for the enrichment/depletion analysis of histone modifications and histone/chromatin regulators from a gene list. Many ChIP-chip/ChIP-seq datasets of histone modifications and histone/chromatin regulators in yeast can be found in the literature. Knowing the needs and having the data motivate us to develop a web tool, called Yeast Histone Modifications Identifier (YHMI), which can identify the enriched/depleted histone modifications and the enriched histone/chromatin regulators from a list of yeast genes. Both tables and figures are provided to visualize the identification results. Finally, the high-quality and biological insight of the identification results are demonstrated by two case studies. We believe that YHMI is a valuable tool for yeast biologists to do epigenetics research.

HRPDviewer: human ribosome profiling data viewer.

Translational regulation plays an important role in protein synthesis. Dysregulation of translation causes abnormal cell physiology and leads to diseases such as inflammatory disorders and cancers. An emerging technique, called ribosome profiling (ribo-seq), was developed to capture a snapshot of translation. It is based on deep sequencing of ribosome-protected mRNA fragments. A lot of ribo-seq data have been generated in various studies, so databases are needed for depositing and visualizing the published ribo-seq data. Nowadays, GWIPS-viz, RPFdb and TranslatomeDB are the three largest databases developed for this purpose. However, two challenges remain to be addressed. First, GWIPS-viz and RPFdb databases align the published ribo-seq data to the genome. Since ribo-seq data aim to reveal the actively translated mRNA transcripts, there are advantages of aligning ribo-req data to the transcriptome over the genome. Second, TranslatomeDB does not provide any visualization and the other two databases only provide visualization of the ribo-seq data around a specific genomic location, while simultaneous visualization of the ribo-seq data on multiple mRNA transcripts produced from the same gene or different genes is desired. To address these two challenges, we developed the Human Ribosome Profiling Data viewer (HRPDviewer). HRPDviewer (i) contains 610 published human ribo-seq datasets from Gene Expression Omnibus, (ii) aligns the ribo-seq data to the transcriptome and (iii) provides visualization of the ribo-seq data on the selected mRNA transcripts. Using HRPDviewer, researchers can compare the ribosome binding patterns of multiple mRNA transcripts from the same gene or different genes to gain an accurate understanding of protein synthesis in human cells. We believe that HRPDviewer is a useful resource for researchers to study translational regulation in human.Database URL: http://cosbi4.ee.ncku.edu.tw/HRPDviewer/ or http://cosbi5.ee.ncku.edu.tw/HRPDviewer/.

Mesoscopic physical removal of material using sliding nano-diamond contacts.

Wear mechanisms including fracture and plastic deformation at the nanoscale are central to understand sliding contacts. Recently, the combination of tip-induced material erosion with the sensing capability of secondary imaging modes of AFM, has enabled a slice-and-view tomographic technique named AFM tomography or Scalpel SPM. However, the elusive laws governing nanoscale wear and the large quantity of atoms involved in the tip-sample contact, require a dedicated mesoscale description to understand and model the tip-induced material removal. Here, we study nanosized sliding contacts made of diamond in the regime whereby thousands of nm3 are removed. We explore the fundamentals of high-pressure tip-induced material removal for various materials. Changes in the load force are systematically combined with AFM and SEM to increase the understanding and the process controllability. The nonlinear variation of the removal rate with the load force is interpreted as a combination of two contact regimes each dominating in a particular force range. By using the gradual transition between the two regimes, (1) the experimental rate of material eroded on each tip passage is modeled, (2) a controllable removal rate below 5 nm/scan for all the materials is demonstrated, thus opening to future development of 3D tomographic AFM.

LASSIM-A network inference toolbox for genome-wide mechanistic modeling.

Recent technological advancements have made time-resolved, quantitative, multi-omics data available for many model systems, which could be integrated for systems pharmacokinetic use. Here, we present large-scale simulation modeling (LASSIM), which is a novel mathematical tool for performing large-scale inference using mechanistically defined ordinary differential equations (ODE) for gene regulatory networks (GRNs). LASSIM integrates structural knowledge about regulatory interactions and non-linear equations with multiple steady state and dynamic response expression datasets. The rationale behind LASSIM is that biological GRNs can be simplified using a limited subset of core genes that are assumed to regulate all other gene transcription events in the network. The LASSIM method is implemented as a general-purpose toolbox using the PyGMO Python package to make the most of multicore computers and high performance clusters, and is available at https://gitlab.com/Gustafsson-lab/lassim. As a method, LASSIM works in two steps, where it first infers a non-linear ODE system of the pre-specified core gene expression. Second, LASSIM in parallel optimizes the parameters that model the regulation of peripheral genes by core system genes. We showed the usefulness of this method by applying LASSIM to infer a large-scale non-linear model of naïve Th2 cell differentiation, made possible by integrating Th2 specific bindings, time-series together with six public and six novel siRNA-mediated knock-down experiments. ChIP-seq showed significant overlap for all tested transcription factors. Next, we performed novel time-series measurements of total T-cells during differentiation towards Th2 and verified that our LASSIM model could monitor those data significantly better than comparable models that used the same Th2 bindings. In summary, the LASSIM toolbox opens the door to a new type of model-based data analysis that combines the strengths of reliable mechanistic models with truly systems-level data. We demonstrate the power of this approach by inferring a mechanistically motivated, genome-wide model of the Th2 transcription regulatory system, which plays an important role in several immune related diseases.

GeneSPIDER - gene regulatory network inference benchmarking with controlled network and data properties.

A key question in network inference, that has not been properly answered, is what accuracy can be expected for a given biological dataset and inference method. We present GeneSPIDER - a Matlab package for tuning, running, and evaluating inference algorithms that allows independent control of network and data properties to enable data-driven benchmarking. GeneSPIDER is uniquely suited to address this question by first extracting salient properties from the experimental data and then generating simulated networks and data that closely match these properties. It enables data-driven algorithm selection, estimation of inference accuracy from biological data, and a more multifaceted benchmarking. Included are generic pipelines for the design of perturbation experiments, bootstrapping, analysis of linear dependence, sample selection, scaling of SNR, and performance evaluation. With GeneSPIDER we aim to move the goal of network inference benchmarks from simple performance measurement to a deeper understanding of how the accuracy of an algorithm is determined by different combinations of network and data properties.

High sensitivity isoelectric focusing to establish a signaling biomarker for the diagnosis of human colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The progression of colorectal cancer (CRC) involves recurrent amplifications/mutations in the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and downstream signal transducers of the Ras pathway, KRAS and BRAF. Whether genetic events predicted to result in increased and constitutive signaling indeed lead to enhanced biological activity is often unclear and, due to technical challenges, unexplored. Here, we investigated proliferative signaling in CRC using a highly sensitive method for protein detection. The aim of the study was to determine whether multiple changes in proliferative signaling in CRC could be combined and exploited as a "complex biomarker" for diagnostic purposes. METHODS: We used robotized capillary isoelectric focusing as well as conventional immunoblotting for the comprehensive analysis of epidermal growth factor receptor signaling pathways converging on extracellular regulated kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2), AKT, phospholipase Cγ1 (PLCγ1) and c-SRC in normal mucosa compared with CRC stage II and IV. Computational analyses were used to test different activity patterns for the analyzed signal transducers. RESULTS: Signaling pathways implicated in cell proliferation were differently dysregulated in CRC and, unexpectedly, several were downregulated in disease. Thus, levels of activated ERK1 (pERK1), but not pERK2, decreased in stage II and IV while total ERK1/2 expression remained unaffected. In addition, c-SRC expression was lower in CRC compared with normal tissues and phosphorylation on the activating residue Y418 was not detected. In contrast, PLCγ1 and AKT expression levels were elevated in disease. Immunoblotting of the different signal transducers, run in parallel to capillary isoelectric focusing, showed higher variability and lower sensitivity and resolution. Computational analyses showed that, while individual signaling changes lacked predictive power, using the combination of changes in three signaling components to create a "complex biomarker" allowed with very high accuracy, the correct diagnosis of tissues as either normal or cancerous. CONCLUSIONS: We present techniques that allow rapid and sensitive determination of cancer signaling that can be used to differentiate colorectal cancer from normal tissue.

Avoiding pitfalls in L1-regularised inference of gene networks.

Statistical regularisation methods such as LASSO and related L1 regularised regression methods are commonly used to construct models of gene regulatory networks. Although they can theoretically infer the correct network structure, they have been shown in practice to make errors, i.e. leave out existing links and include non-existing links. We show that L1 regularisation methods typically produce a poor network model when the analysed data are ill-conditioned, i.e. the gene expression data matrix has a high condition number, even if it contains enough information for correct network inference. However, the correct structure of network models can be obtained for informative data, data with such a signal to noise ratio that existing links can be proven to exist, when these methods fail, by using least-squares regression and setting small parameters to zero, or by using robust network inference, a recent method taking the intersection of all non-rejectable models. Since available experimental data sets are generally ill-conditioned, we recommend to check the condition number of the data matrix to avoid this pitfall of L1 regularised inference, and to also consider alternative methods.

Functional association networks as priors for gene regulatory network inference.

MOTIVATION: Gene regulatory network (GRN) inference reveals the influences genes have on one another in cellular regulatory systems. If the experimental data are inadequate for reliable inference of the network, informative priors have been shown to improve the accuracy of inferences. RESULTS: This study explores the potential of undirected, confidence-weighted networks, such as those in functional association databases, as a prior source for GRN inference. Such networks often erroneously indicate symmetric interaction between genes and may contain mostly correlation-based interaction information. Despite these drawbacks, our testing on synthetic datasets indicates that even noisy priors reflect some causal information that can improve GRN inference accuracy. Our analysis on yeast data indicates that using the functional association databases FunCoup and STRING as priors can give a small improvement in GRN inference accuracy with biological data.

Optimal sparsity criteria for network inference.

Gene regulatory network inference (that is, determination of the regulatory interactions between a set of genes) provides mechanistic insights of central importance to research in systems biology. Most contemporary network inference methods rely on a sparsity/regularization coefficient, which we call ζ (zeta), to determine the degree of sparsity of the network estimates, that is, the total number of links between the nodes. However, they offer little or no advice on how to select this sparsity coefficient, in particular, for biological data with few samples. We show that an empty network is more accurate than estimates obtained for a poor choice of ζ. In order to avoid such poor choices, we propose a method for optimization of ζ, which maximizes the accuracy of the inferred network for any sparsity-dependent inference method and data set. Our procedure is based on leave-one-out cross-optimization and selection of the ζ value that minimizes the prediction error. We also illustrate the adverse effects of noise, few samples, and uninformative experiments on network inference as well as our method for optimization of ζ. We demonstrate that our ζ optimization method for two widely used inference algorithms--Glmnet and NIR--gives accurate and informative estimates of the network structure, given that the data is informative enough.

Network modeling of the transcriptional effects of copy number aberrations in glioblastoma.

DNA copy number aberrations (CNAs) are a hallmark of cancer genomes. However, little is known about how such changes affect global gene expression. We develop a modeling framework, EPoC (Endogenous Perturbation analysis of Cancer), to (1) detect disease-driving CNAs and their effect on target mRNA expression, and to (2) stratify cancer patients into long- and short-term survivors. Our method constructs causal network models of gene expression by combining genome-wide DNA- and RNA-level data. Prognostic scores are obtained from a singular value decomposition of the networks. By applying EPoC to glioblastoma data from The Cancer Genome Atlas consortium, we demonstrate that the resulting network models contain known disease-relevant hub genes, reveal interesting candidate hubs, and uncover predictors of patient survival. Targeted validations in four glioblastoma cell lines support selected predictions, and implicate the p53-interacting protein Necdin in suppressing glioblastoma cell growth. We conclude that large-scale network modeling of the effects of CNAs on gene expression may provide insights into the biology of human cancer. Free software in MATLAB and R is provided.