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1.
Aust Vet J ; 2024 Jul 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39042044

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: It is doubtful that any of the treatments proposed for feline leukaemia virus (FeLV) infection are effective, despite the entity being described 60 years ago. METHODS: Eighteen pet cats with progressive FeLV infections were recruited in Australia. One or more antiviral drugs were trialled in 16 cats, while two FeLV-infected cats were not handleable and served as untreated controls. Six cats were administered RetroMAD1™ only (0.5 mg/kg orally twice daily), a commercially available recombinant chimeric protein with proposed antiretroviral activity. Three cats were administered the integrase inhibitor raltegravir only (10-15 mg/kg orally twice daily), a drug used as a component of highly effective antiretroviral therapy for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) infection. Three cats were administered RetroMAD1™ and raltegravir concurrently, and four cats were administered raltegravir and the reverse transcriptase inhibitor zidovudine (AZT, 5 mg/kg orally twice daily) concurrently. FeLV RNA and p27 antigen loads were measured at two timepoints (T1-2 months and T3-5 months) during therapy and compared to baseline (pretreatment) levels, to assess the response to therapy using linear modelling. The median survival time (MST) of the cats from commencement of FeLV treatment to death was also determined and compared between treatments. RESULTS: The MST for the 16 FeLV-positive cats which received antiviral therapy was 634 days, while the MST from FeLV diagnosis to death for the two untreated control cats was 780 days. In cats treated with RetroMAD1™, FeLV viral load decreased from T0 to T1-2 months (median viral load reduced from 1339 × 106 to 705 × 106 copies/mL plasma; P = 0.012), but MST was reduced compared to cats not given RetroMAD1™ (426 days vs 1006 days; P = 0.049). Cats treated with raltegravir and AZT had no significant changes in FeLV viral load over time, but p27 antigen load was decreased from T0 to T3-5 months in cats treated with raltegravir (median p27 antigen level reduced from 50.2% to 42.7%; P = 0.005). All other results were not significantly affected by the treatment provided. Importantly, statistically significant and substantial associations were found between age at FeLV diagnosis and survival time (P = 0.046, R2 = 18.6) and between FeLV viral load at T0 and survival time (P = 0.004, R2 = 44.4). Younger cats, and cats with higher levels of pretreatment FeLV RNA, had reduced survival times. Cats treated with RetroMAD1™ were typically younger (median age 2.0 vs 8.0 years), likely explaining the observed reduction in MST. A significant association was found between FeLV viral load and p27 antigen load at T0 (P = 0.015, R2 = 32.9). CONCLUSIONS: Results from this small case series do not provide convincing support for the use of RetroMAD1™, raltegravir or AZT, alone or in combination, for the treatment of cats progressively infected with FeLV. The changes observed were biologically insignificant. Age and FeLV viral load at diagnosis are useful prognostic markers, and p27 antigen concentration can be used to predict viral load. Larger field trials should be performed examining antiretroviral therapy in FeLV-positive cats with progressive infections, preferably using three or more drugs from at least two classes, as is standard with human antiretroviral therapy. Future studies would be easier in countries with a higher prevalence of FeLV infections than Australia.

4.
Aust Vet J ; 102(4): 215-221, 2024 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38220214

ABSTRACT

In 2017, highly fatal canine leptospirosis emerged in Sydney, Australia. Based on results of microscopic agglutination testing (MAT), serovar Copenhageni appeared to be the most common causative serovar. Prior to this, no clinical cases had been reported since 1976. In a serosurvey of healthy dogs in Australian shelters in 2004, 2.4% of 431 New South Wales dogs had serological evidence of exposure to Copenhageni, the most prevalent serovar. The aim of this study was to estimate the current prevalence of Leptospira exposure and associated serovars in healthy Sydney dogs, previously unvaccinated against Leptospira. Serum samples from 411 healthy dogs in leptospirosis hotspots and neighbouring suburbs were collected before vaccination. MAT for 23 serovars was performed at the WHO Leptospirosis Reference Laboratory in Queensland, Australia. The overall seroprevalence was 4.1% (17/411) with low titres (1/50-1/200) detected. Eleven dogs were from known leptospirosis hotspots. Eight dogs were known to hunt rodents. One dog had been in contact with a leptospirosis positive dog 1 year prior. Serovar Topaz was the most prevalent serovar (n = 5) followed by serovars Australis (n = 4), Copenhageni (n = 4), Djasiman (n = 2), Cynopteri (n = 1), Javanica (n = 1), Medanensis (n = 1), and Pomona (n = 1). In conclusion, serological evidence of exposure of dogs in Sydney to Leptospira is low, but apparently has increased since 2004. Positive titres to serovars not previously reported to cause disease in dogs could be due to low virulence of those serovars or cross-reactivity with other serovars.


Subject(s)
Dog Diseases , Leptospira , Leptospirosis , Animals , Dogs , New South Wales/epidemiology , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Australia , Leptospirosis/epidemiology , Leptospirosis/veterinary , Leptospirosis/prevention & control , Antibodies, Bacterial
5.
Aust Vet J ; 101(9): 339-344, 2023 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37403520

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the presence of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), extended beta-lactamase (ESBL) producing Enterobacteriaceae, and vancomycin resistant enterococci (VRE) in bulk tank milk in dairy herds in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. METHODS: Bulk tank milk samples (n = 80) were collected from dairy farms (n = 40, i.e. 2 per farm) in NSW during 2021. Bacteria were cultured using selective chromogenic indicator media with isolate identity confirmed using biochemical testing, Gram stain, and MALDI-TOF mass spectroscopy. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was confirmed using antibiotic disk diffusion. RESULTS: No samples tested positive to the targeted AMR organisms. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of MRSA, ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae, and VRE is low in NSW dairy herds.


Subject(s)
Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus , Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci , Animals , Enterobacteriaceae , beta-Lactamases , New South Wales/epidemiology , Milk/microbiology , Prevalence , Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology , Microbial Sensitivity Tests/veterinary
6.
Aust Vet J ; 101(4): 142-152, 2023 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36635984

ABSTRACT

Numerous culture-based diagnostics are available on the Australian and international markets for on-farm detection of bacterial pathogens in milk. Use of such diagnostics may provide an opportunity to improve the prudent use of antimicrobials in udder health management. Farms are low-resource settings in terms of diagnostic microbiology capacity. The World Health Organisation has identified criteria for the evaluation of diagnostic tests in low resource settings based on Accuracy, Sensitivity, Specificity, User-friendliness, being Rapid or Robust, Equipment-free and being Deliverable (ASSURED). Here, we review how those criteria can be interpreted in the context of microbiological diagnosis of mastitis pathogens, and how on-farm diagnostics that are currently available in Australia perform relative to ASSURED criteria. This evaluation identifies multiple trade-offs, both with regard to scientific criteria and with regards to convenience criteria. More importantly, the purpose of testing may differ between farms, and test performance should be evaluated relative to its intended use. The ability of on-farm mastitis diagnostics to inform mastitis treatment decision-making in a timely and cost-effective manner depends not just on test characteristics but also on farm-specific pathogen prevalence, and on the farm enterprise's priorities and the farm manager's potential courses of action. With most assay evaluations to date conducted in professional laboratories, there is a surprising dearth of information on how well any of the diagnostic tests perform on-farm and, indeed, of the on-farm decision-making processes that they aim to inform.


Subject(s)
Anti-Infective Agents , Cattle Diseases , Mastitis, Bovine , Cattle , Female , Animals , Farms , Mastitis, Bovine/diagnosis , Australia , Milk/microbiology , Dairying
7.
Nature ; 612(7939): 228-231, 2022 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36477127

ABSTRACT

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are flashes of high-energy radiation arising from energetic cosmic explosions. Bursts of long (greater than two seconds) duration are produced by the core-collapse of massive stars1, and those of short (less than two seconds) duration by the merger of compact objects, such as two neutron stars2. A third class of events with hybrid high-energy properties was identified3, but never conclusively linked to a stellar progenitor. The lack of bright supernovae rules out typical core-collapse explosions4-6, but their distance scales prevent sensitive searches for direct signatures of a progenitor system. Only tentative evidence for a kilonova has been presented7,8. Here we report observations of the exceptionally bright GRB 211211A, which classify it as a hybrid event and constrain its distance scale to only 346 megaparsecs. Our measurements indicate that its lower-energy (from ultraviolet to near-infrared) counterpart is powered by a luminous (approximately 1042 erg per second) kilonova possibly formed in the ejecta of a compact object merger.


Subject(s)
Stars, Celestial
8.
Rev Sci Instrum ; 93(11): 113502, 2022 Nov 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36461505

ABSTRACT

During inertial confinement fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), a capsule filled with deuterium and tritium (DT) gas, surrounded by a DT ice layer and a high-density carbon ablator, is driven to the temperature and densities required to initiate fusion. In the indirect method, 2 MJ of NIF laser light heats the inside of a gold hohlraum to a radiation temperature of 300 eV; thermal x rays from the hohlraum interior couple to the capsule and create a central hotspot at tens of millions degrees Kelvin and a density of 100-200 g/cm3. During the laser interaction with the gold wall, m-band x rays are produced at ∼2.5 keV; these can penetrate into the capsule and preheat the ablator and DT fuel. Preheat can impact instability growth rates in the ablation front and at the fuel-ablator interface. Monitoring the hohlraum x-ray spectrum throughout the implosion is, therefore, critical; for this purpose, a Multilayer Mirror (MLM) with flat response in the 2-4 keV range has been installed in the NIF 37° Dante calorimeter. Precision engineering and x-ray calibration of components mean the channel will report 2-4 keV spectral power with an uncertainty of ±8.7%.

9.
Aust Vet J ; 100(12): 587-595, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36173313

ABSTRACT

Antimicrobial use (AMU) in the food chain is a potential driver of antimicrobial resistance. Despite Australia's strong regulation of AMU limited to veterinary prescriptions, a proportion of empirical antimicrobial treatments are administered by dairy farmers to manage common cattle health problems. This cross-sectional survey identified key influences on AMU by dairy cattle farmers within New South Wales, Australia, to detect opportunities for antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) engagement. The study identified existing relationships, resources and attitudes of the dairy farmers that could be optimised for on-farm AMS strategies. Farmers were most highly influenced by veterinary advice and clinical signs of the animal followed by the withholding period and the potential for antimicrobial resistance development. Farmers' high confidence regarding their own knowledge of antimicrobials (>90%), their high regard for veterinary advice (>90%) and high rate of veterinary health care plan use (69%) provides a strong framework to build the profile and practice of AMS on dairy farms. Positive engagement by dairy farmers (survey response of 20%), was achieved by working with the NSW Food Authority. Despite respondents reporting low reliance on formal (government and commercial) organisations for information about AMU, their engagement demonstrates an opportunity for groups with unparalleled access to dairy farmers to drive AMS. An association between frequent use of veterinary advice and respondents keeping ceftiofur on-farm requires further investigation. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of on-farm resources, decision-making, and practices is required to understand how practices relate to veterinary advice and accepted standards of appropriate AMU on dairy farms.


Subject(s)
Anti-Infective Agents , Farmers , Cattle , Animals , Humans , Farms , Dairying , New South Wales , Cross-Sectional Studies , Anti-Infective Agents/therapeutic use
10.
Aust Vet J ; 100(8): 345-359, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35578381

ABSTRACT

Despite the passage of over 30 years since its discovery, the importance of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) on the health and longevity of infected domestic cats is hotly debated amongst feline experts. Notwithstanding the absence of good quality information, Australian and New Zealand (NZ) veterinarians should aim to minimise the exposure of cats to FIV. The most reliable way to achieve this goal is to recommend that all pet cats are kept exclusively indoors, or with secure outdoor access (e.g., cat enclosures, secure gardens), with FIV testing of any in-contact cats. All animal holding facilities should aim to individually house adult cats to limit the spread of FIV infection in groups of animals that are stressed and do not have established social hierarchies. Point-of-care (PoC) FIV antibody tests are available in Australia and NZ that can distinguish FIV-infected and uninfected FIV-vaccinated cats (Witness™ and Anigen Rapid™). Although testing of whole blood, serum or plasma remains the gold standard for FIV diagnosis, PoC testing using saliva may offer a welfare-friendly alternative in the future. PCR testing to detect FIV infection is not recommended as a screening procedure since a negative PCR result does not rule out FIV infection and is only recommended in specific scenarios. Australia and NZ are two of three countries where a dual subtype FIV vaccine (Fel-O-Vax® FIV) is available and offers a further avenue for disease prevention. Since FIV vaccination only has a reported field effectiveness of 56% in Australia, and possibly lower in NZ, FIV-vaccinated cats should undergo annual FIV testing prior to annual FIV re-vaccination using a suitable PoC kit to check infection has not occurred in the preceding year. With FIV-infected cats, clinicians should strive to be even more thorough than usual at detecting early signs of disease. The most effective way to enhance the quality of life and life expectancy of FIV-infected cats is to optimise basic husbandry and to treat any concurrent conditions early in the disease course. Currently, no available drugs are registered for the treatment of FIV infection. Critically, the euthanasia of healthy FIV-infected cats, and sick FIV-infected cats without appropriate clinical investigations, should not occur.


Subject(s)
Cat Diseases , Feline Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome , Immunodeficiency Virus, Feline , Viral Vaccines , Animals , Antibodies, Viral , Australia , Cat Diseases/diagnosis , Cat Diseases/prevention & control , Cats , Euthanasia, Animal , Feline Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/diagnosis , Feline Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/prevention & control , New Zealand , Quality of Life
11.
Aust Vet J ; 100(8): 360-366, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35607254

ABSTRACT

Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease with worldwide distribution. Brucella suis serotype 1 is thought to be maintained in the Australian feral pig population, with disease prevalence higher in Queensland (Qld) than New South Wales (NSW). Pig hunting is a popular recreational activity in rural Qld and NSW, with feral pigs in these states thought to carry B. suis. Brucellosis associated with B. suis has been diagnosed in dogs engaged in pig hunting in some of these areas. A total of 431 dogs from northern Qld and north-west NSW were recruited. Two distinct cohorts of clinically healthy dogs were tested - (1) 96 dogs from central, north and far north Queensland actively engaged in pig-hunting and (2) 335 dogs from rural and remote north-west NSW that were primarily companion (non-pig hunting) animals. Serum samples were tested for antibodies to Brucella spp. using the Rose Bengal test (RBT) test followed by complement fixation testing (CFT) for RBT-positive samples. A subset of samples was retested using RBT and CFT. Seven dogs were considered seropositive for B. suis from Qld and remote NSW, including 4/96 (4.2%; 95% CI 3.5% to 4.3%) from the pig-hunting cohort and 3/335 (0.9%) from the regional pet dog cohort. The use of RBT and CFT in dogs to detect anti-Brucella antibodies requires validation. Veterinarians treating pig-hunting dogs and physicians treating pig hunters in central, north and far north Qld need to be aware of the zoonotic risk posed by B. suis to these groups.


Subject(s)
Brucella suis , Brucellosis , Dog Diseases , Animals , Animals, Wild , Australia , Brucellosis/epidemiology , Brucellosis/veterinary , Dog Diseases/epidemiology , Dogs , Humans , Hunting
12.
Aust Vet J ; 100(6): 230-235, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35156193

ABSTRACT

The causative agent of Q fever, Coxiella burnetii, is endemic to Queensland and is one of the most important notifiable zoonotic diseases in Australia. The reservoir species for C. burnetii are classically ruminants, including sheep, cattle and goats. There is increasing evidence of C. burnetii exposure in dogs across eastern and central Australia. The present study aimed to determine if pig-hunting dogs above the Tropic of Capricorn in Queensland had similar rates of C. burnetii exposure to previous serosurveys of companion dogs in rural north-west New South Wales. A total of 104 pig-hunting dogs had serum IgG antibody titres to phase I and phase 2 C. burnetii determined using an indirect immunofluorescence assay test. Almost one in five dogs (18.3%; 19/104; 95% confidence interval 9.6%-35.5%) were seropositive to C. burnetii, with neutered dogs more likely to test positive compared to entire dogs (P = 0.0497). Seropositivity of the sampled pig-hunting dogs was one of the highest recorded in Australia. Thirty-nine owners of the pig-hunting dogs completed a survey, revealing 12.8% (5/39) had been vaccinated against Q fever and 90% (35/39) were aware that both feral pigs and dogs could potentially be sources of C. burnetii. Our findings indicate that pig hunters should be aware of the risk of exposure to Q fever during hunts and the sentinel role their dogs may play in C. burnetii exposure.


Subject(s)
Cattle Diseases , Coxiella burnetii , Dog Diseases , Goat Diseases , Q Fever , Sheep Diseases , Swine Diseases , Animals , Cattle , Dogs , Antibodies, Bacterial , Australia , Cattle Diseases/epidemiology , Dog Diseases/epidemiology , Goats , Q Fever/epidemiology , Q Fever/veterinary , Queensland/epidemiology , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Sheep , Swine , Working Dogs
13.
Aust Vet J ; 100(5): 190-200, 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35076093

ABSTRACT

Canine leptospirosis has not been reported in the Sydney dog population since 1976. However, between 2017 and 2020, leptospirosis was confirmed in 17 dogs, five of which were known to hunt rodents. Dogs infected between 2017 and 2019 lived within a 3 km radius in the Inner City of Sydney (n = 11). In 2020, cases emerged across a broader area of Sydney; Inner City (n = 1), Inner West (n = 3), Lower North Shore (n = 1) and Upper North Shore (n = 1). The disease was characterised by severe hepatorenal involvement resulting in an unusually high case fatality rate (88%). In conjunction with supportive clinical signs, diagnosis was confirmed by real-time PCR on whole blood (n = 1), kidney (n = 1), urine (n = 4), whole blood and urine (n = 9) or by seroconversion (n = 3). Antibody titres determined by Microscopic Agglutination Test (MAT) to Leptospira serovars were measured in 12 dogs: seven were positive for serovar Copenhageni, one was positive for serovar Hardjo, three were negative for all serovars, likely due to insufficient time for seroconversion before death and one had a low positive titre (1/50) for serovars Australis and Robinsoni. This sudden emergence of a highly fatal disease in pet dogs in Sydney has led to the introduction of Leptospira vaccination protocols for dogs living in inner Sydney using a monovalent vaccine containing serovar Copenhageni. The success of this vaccination program will require ongoing research to understand the emergence of leptospirosis in this region and the serovars involved.


Subject(s)
Dog Diseases , Leptospira , Leptospirosis , Agglutination Tests/veterinary , Animals , Antibodies, Bacterial , Dog Diseases/diagnosis , Dog Diseases/epidemiology , Dogs , Leptospirosis/diagnosis , Leptospirosis/epidemiology , Leptospirosis/veterinary , Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction/veterinary , Vaccination/veterinary
15.
Prog Urol ; 31(3): 147-157, 2021 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33189555

ABSTRACT

CONTEXT: Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is now recommended before performing prostate biopsies, looking for suspicious lesions to perform targeted biopsies (TB). However, the association or exclusive performance of systematic biopsies (SB), criticized for its morbidity and for the detection of insignificant cancers, remains debated. OBJECTIVE: To perform a literature review to answer three questions: (1) In the presence of a suspicious MRI lesion, should we always perform SB in addition to TB? (2) Can we avoid SB when considering focal treatment? (3) Is there an increase in adverse events when associating SB with TB? SOURCES: A non-systematic literature review was carried out on Medline in April 2020 using the keywords "MRI", "PROSTATE CANCER", "SYSTEMATIC BIOPSY", "TARGETED BIOPSY", "ADVERSE EVENTS". The references of the selected articles were analyzed for additional articles. Selection of Studies published in the last five years were analyzed and retained if the available data made it possible to answer one of the three questions asked. RESULTS: In biopsy-naive patients, the added value of SB to TB for detection of significative cancer varied from +5 to+7% and was reduced to +1 to +3% in the case of a previous series of negative biopsies. For patients under active surveillance, this added value was higher, ranging from +8% to +17%. MRI has a negative predictive value of 85 to 95%, but this value drops to 55% for the detection of secondary or tertiary foci. The use of SB is necessary if focal treatment is considered. Serious complications from biopsies requiring hospitalization range from 1.4 to 6.9% and are increased by the number of previous biopsy series performed more than by the number of biopsies per series. CONCLUSION: In the presence of a suspicious MRI lesion, SB is indicated in addition to TB but can be discussed in patients with previous negative biopsies. They are necessary if focal treatment is considered to aid surgical planning. Severe complications from biopsies do not seem to increase when SB are associated to TB, but rather with the number of biopsy series performed.


Subject(s)
Image-Guided Biopsy/methods , Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Prostate/diagnostic imaging , Prostate/pathology , Prostatic Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Prostatic Neoplasms/pathology , Humans , Male
16.
Prog Urol ; 30(16): 986-999, 2020 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33008718

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Many guidelines now recommend multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) prior to an initial or repeat prostate biopsy. However, clinical decision making for men with a non-suspicious mpMRI (Likert or PIRADS score 1-2) varies. OBJECTIVES: To review the most recent literature to answer three questions. (1) Should we consider systematic biopsy if mpMRI is not suspicious? (2) Are there additional predictive factors that can help decide which patient should have a biopsy? (3) Can the low visibility of some cancers be explained and what are the implications? SOURCES: A narrative review was performed in Medline databases using two searches with the terms "MRI" and "prostate cancer" and ("diagnosis" or "biopsy") and ("non-suspicious" or "negative" or "invisible"); "prostate cancer MRI visible". References of the selected articles were screened for additional articles. STUDY SELECTION: Studies published in the last 5 years in English language were assessed for eligibility and selected if data was available to answer one of the three study questions. RESULTS: Considering clinically significant cancer as ISUP grade≥2, the negative predictive value (NPV) of mpMRI in various settings and populations ranges from 76% to 99%, depending on cancer prevalence and the type of confirmatory reference test used. NPV is higher among patients with prior negative biopsy (88-96%), and lower for active surveillance patients (85-90%). The PSA density (PSAd) with a threshold of PSAd<0.15ng/ml/ml was the most studied and relevant predictive factor used in combination with mpMRI to rule out clinically significant cancer. Finally, mpMRI-invisible tumours appear to differ from a histopathological and genetic point of view, conferring clinical advantage to invisibility. LIMITATIONS: Most published data come from expert centres and results may not be reproducible in all settings. CONCLUSION: mpMRI has high diagnostic accuracy and in cases of negative mpMRI, PSA density can be used to determine which patient should have a biopsy. Growing knowledge of the mechanisms and genetics underlying MRI visibility will help develop more accurate risk calculators and biomarkers.


Subject(s)
Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Prostatic Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Prostatic Neoplasms/pathology , Biopsy , Humans , Male , Predictive Value of Tests , Reproducibility of Results
17.
Rev Geophys ; 58(4): e2019RG000678, 2020 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33015673

ABSTRACT

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

18.
Aust Vet J ; 98(10): 504-510, 2020 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32754949

ABSTRACT

Canine parvovirus (CPV) has been reported throughout the world since the late 1970s. Published information was reviewed to draw insights into the epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis, treatment and outcomes of CPV disease in Australia and the role of scientific research on CPV occurrence, with key research discoveries and knowledge gaps identified. Australian researchers contributed substantially to early findings, including the first reported cases of parvoviral myocarditis, investigations into disease aetiopathogenesis, host and environmental risk factors and links between CPV and feline panleukopenia. Two of the world's first CPV serological surveys were conducted in Australia and a 1980 national veterinary survey of Australian and New Zealand dogs revealed 6824 suspected CPV cases and 1058 deaths. In 2010, an Australian national disease surveillance system was launched; 4940 CPV cases were reported between 2009 and 2014, although underreporting was likely. A 2017 study estimated national incidence to be 4.12 cases per 1000 dogs, and an annual case load of 20,110 based on 4219 CPV case reports in a survey of all Australian veterinary clinics, with a 23.5% response rate. CPV disease risk factors identified included socioeconomic disadvantage, geographical location (rural/remote), season (summer) and rainfall (recent rain and longer dry periods both increasing risk). Age <16 weeks was identified as a risk factor for vaccination failure. Important knowledge gaps exist regarding national canine and feline demographic and CPV case data, vaccination coverage and population immunity, CPV transmission between owned dogs and other carnivore populations in Australia and the most effective methods to control epizootics.


Subject(s)
Cat Diseases , Dog Diseases/epidemiology , Parvovirus, Canine , Animals , Australia/epidemiology , Cats , Dogs , New Zealand
19.
Prev Vet Med ; 181: 105065, 2020 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32599371

ABSTRACT

Canine parvovirus (CPV) is a cause of severe disease in dogs globally, yet is preventable by vaccination. A range of vaccination protocols are used by veterinary practitioners with evidence suggesting some protocols provide better protection than others in high infection-risk situations. This study investigated associations between veterinarians' vaccination recommendations and hospital remoteness, socioeconomic disadvantage, CPV caseload, and veterinarian perceptions and demographics. A national Australian veterinary survey in 2017 received 569 practitioner responses from 534 unique hospitals (23.6 % response rate). Respondents from major city hospitals had the lowest perceptions of the national CPV caseload (p < 0.0001). Those from hospitals with mild to moderate caseloads (6-40 cases per annum) recommended more frequent puppy revaccination - which is considered more protective - than those with the highest caseload (p = 0.0098), which might increase vaccination failure risk. Respondents from the most socioeconomically disadvantaged regions were over-represented in recommending annual revaccination of adult dogs; those from the least disadvantaged regions were over-represented in recommending triennial revaccination (p < 0.0001). Hospitals with higher CPV caseloads, greater socioeconomic disadvantage or increased remoteness did not favor two puppy vaccination protocols that are considered more protective (younger first vaccination age or older final vaccination age), despite these regions presenting higher CPV caseload risk. Titer testing to determine whether to revaccinate was more likely to be used in major city hospitals (p = 0.0052) and less disadvantaged areas (p = 0.0550). University of graduation was associated with CPV caseload, remoteness and level of socioeconomic disadvantage of the region where the graduate worked. University of graduation was significantly associated with age for final puppy vaccination and titer-testing recommendations. Graduates from one university were over-represented in recommending an earlier (10-week) finish protocol and titer testing, compared to all other universities. Year and university of graduation, and respondent's age were associated with a number of vaccination protocol recommendations suggesting that inherent biases might affect veterinarians' decisions. Emphasis on currently recommended vaccination protocols in undergraduate curricula and more protective vaccination protocol use in higher-risk regions could reduce immunization failure and CPV caseload.


Subject(s)
Clinical Competence , Dog Diseases/prevention & control , Parvoviridae Infections/veterinary , Perception , Socioeconomic Factors , Workload/statistics & numerical data , Animals , Australia , Dog Diseases/psychology , Dogs , Geography , Parvoviridae Infections/prevention & control , Parvoviridae Infections/psychology , Parvovirus, Canine
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