Projecting Climate Dependent Coastal Flood Risk With a Hybrid Statistical Dynamical Model.

Numerical models for tides, storm surge, and wave runup have demonstrated ability to accurately define spatially varying flood surfaces. However these models are typically too computationally expensive to dynamically simulate the full parameter space of future oceanographic, atmospheric, and hydrologic conditions that will constructively compound in the nearshore to cause both extreme event and nuisance flooding during the 21st century. A surrogate modeling framework of waves, winds, and tides is developed in this study to efficiently predict spatially varying nearshore and estuarine water levels contingent on any combination of offshore forcing conditions. The surrogate models are coupled with a time-dependent stochastic climate emulator that provides efficient downscaling for hypothetical iterations of offshore conditions. Together, the hybrid statistical-dynamical framework can assess present day and future coastal flood risk, including the chronological characteristics of individual flood and wave-induced dune overtopping events and their changes into the future. The framework is demonstrated at Naval Base Coronado in San Diego, CA, utilizing the regional Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS; composed of Delft3D and XBeach) as the dynamic simulator and Gaussian process regression as the surrogate modeling tool. Validation of the framework uses both in-situ tide gauge observations within San Diego Bay, and a nearshore cross-shore array deployment of pressure sensors in the open beach surf zone. The framework reveals the relative influence of large-scale climate variability on future coastal flood resilience metrics relevant to the management of an open coast artificial berm, as well as the stochastic nature of future total water levels.

Prognostic significance of supradiaphragmatic lymph nodes at initial presentation in patients with stage III high-grade serous ovarian cancer.

PURPOSE: To identify the optimal size threshold and to assess the prognostic significance of supradiaphragmatic lymph nodes at initial presentation of patients with high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSC). METHODS: This IRB-approved, HIPAA-compliant retrospective study included baseline pretreatment staging abdominal CTs of 88 women (mean age 62 years, SD 10.4, range 29-85) with FIGO stage III HGSC. Patients with stage IV disease were excluded due to worse prognosis and management guided by distant metastases. Two fellowship-trained radiologists independently reviewed abdominal CTs to record the presence of supradiaphragmatic nodes, abdominal lymphadenopathy, peritoneal carcinomatosis, and ovarian mass. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were recorded after median 79 months follow-up (IQR 58-115, range 13-144). The optimal short-axis size threshold for supradiaphragmatic lymphadenopathy was determined by correlating 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 10 mm thresholds with PFS and OS using Log-rank test. Prognostic significance of supradiaphragmatic lymphadenopathy was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: There was good interobserver agreement for presence (κ = 0.65, 95%CI 0.51-0.79) and size (ICC = 0.77, 95%CI 0.66-0.86) of supradiaphragmatic nodes. 5 mm short-axis size threshold was associated with significantly shorter PFS (median 14 months, IQR 11-17 vs. 23 months, IQR 12-59; p = 0.02) and OS (median 44 months, IQR 27-69 vs. 65 months, IQR 45-96; p = 0.03). Total 38/88 (43%) patients had supradiaphragmatic lymphadenopathy. On Cox proportion hazards analysis, supradiaphragmatic lymphadenopathy was significantly associated with shorter PFS (p = 0.02; HR 1.81, 95%CI 1.11-2.96) and OS (p = 0.008; HR 2.11, 95%CI 1.21-3.65). CONCLUSION: In patients with stage III HGSC, supradiaphragmatic lymphadenopathy is associated with shorter PFS and OS. Further studies would help determine its implications on staging, decision regarding neoadjuvant therapy, and surgical technique.

Patient, tumour and treatment factors affect complication rates in soft tissue sarcoma flap reconstruction in a synergistic manner.

INTRODUCTION: Flap reconstruction plays an essential role in the management of soft tissue sarcoma, facilitating wide resection while maximizing preservation of function. The addition of reconstruction increases the complexity of the surgery and identification of patients who are at high risk for post-operative complications is an important part of the preoperative assessment. This study examines predictors of complications in these patients. METHODS: 294 patients undergoing flap reconstruction following sarcoma resection were evaluated. Data on patient, tumour and treatment variables as well as post-operative complications were collected. Bivariate and multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of complications. Analysis of synergistic interaction between key patient and tumour risk factors was subsequently performed. RESULTS: A history of cerebrovascular events or cardiac disease were found to be the strongest independent predictors of post-operative complications (OR 14.84, p = 0.003 and OR 5.71, p = 0.001, respectively). Further strong independent tumour and treatment-related predictors were high grade tumours (OR 1.91, p = 0.038) and the need for additional reconstructive procedures (OR 2.78, p = 0.001). Obesity had significant synergistic interaction with tumour resection diameter (RERI 1.1, SI 1.99, p = 0.02) and high tumour grade (RERI 0.86, SI 1.5, p = 0.01). Comorbidities showed significant synergistic interaction with large tumour resections (RERI 0.91, SI 1.83, p = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Patient, tumour and treatment-related variables contribute to complications following flap reconstruction of sarcoma defects. This study highlights the importance of considering the combined effect of multiple risk factors when evaluating and counselling patients as significant synergistic interaction between variables can further increase the risk of complications.

Is diffusion-weighted MRI sufficient for follow-up of neuroendocrine tumour liver metastases?

AIM: To assess if diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) alone could be used for follow-up of neuroendocrine hepatic metastases. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a retrospective study, approved by the institutional review board. Twenty-two patients with neuroendocrine liver metastases who had undergone more than one liver magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examination, (including DWI and using hepatocyte-specific contrast medium) were evaluated. Up to five metastases were measured at baseline and at each subsequent examination. The reference standard measurement was performed on the hepatocyte phase by one reader. Three independent readers separately measured the same lesions on DWI sequences alone, blinded to other sequences, and recorded the presence of any new lesions. RESULTS: The longest diameters of 317 liver metastases (91 on 22 baseline examinations and a further 226 measurements on follow-up) were measured on the reference standard by one reader and on three b-values by three other readers. The mean difference between DWI measurements and the reference standard measurement was between 0.01-0.08 cm over the nine reader/b-value combinations. Based on the width of the Bland and Altman interval containing approximately 95% of the differences between the reader observation and the mean of reference standard and DWI measurement, the narrowest interval over the nine reader/b-value combinations was -0.6 to +0.7 cm and the widest was -0.9 to 1 cm. In the evaluation of overall response using Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) 1.1 criteria, the weighted kappa statistic was between 0.49 and 0.86, indicating moderate-to-good agreement between the reference standard and DWI. CONCLUSION: The visualisation and measurement of hepatic metastases using DWI alone are within acceptable limits for clinical use, allowing the use of this rapid technique to restage hepatic disease in patients with neuroendocrine metastases.

Assessment of metastatic risk of gastric GIST based on treatment-naïve CT features.

OBJECTIVE: To study whether the CT features of treatment-naïve gastric GIST may be used to assess metastatic risk. METHODS: In this IRB approved retrospective study, with informed consent waived, contrast enhanced CT images of 143 patients with pathologically confirmed treatment-naïve gastric GIST (74 men, 69 women; mean age 61 years, SD ± 14) were reviewed in consensus by two oncoradiologists blinded to clinicopathologic features and clinical outcome and morphologic features were recorded. The metastatic spread was recorded using available imaging studies and electronic medical records (median follow up 40 months, interquartile range, IQR, 21-61). The association of maximum size in any plane (≤10 cm or >10 cm), outline (smooth or irregular/lobulated), cystic areas (≤50% or >50%), exophytic component (≤50% or >50%), and enhancing solid component (present or absent) with metastatic disease were analyzed using univariate (Fisher's exact test) and multivariate (logistic regression) analysis. RESULTS: Metastatic disease developed in 42 (29%) patients (28 at presentation, 14 during follow-up); 23 (16%) patients died. On multivariate analysis, tumor size >10 cm (p = 0.0001, OR 9.9), irregular/lobulated outline (p = 0.001, OR 5.6) and presence of a enhancing solid component (p < 0.0001, OR 9.1) were independent predictors of metastatic disease. On subgroup analysis, an irregular/lobulated outline and an enhancing solid component were more frequently associated with metastases in tumors ≤5 cm and >5-≤10 cm (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: CT morphologic features can be used to assess the metastatic risk of treatment-naïve gastric GIST. Risk assessment based on pretreatment CT is especially useful for patients receiving neoadjuvant tyrosine kinase inhibitors and those with tumors <5 cm in size.

MDCT and clinicopathological features of small bowel gastrointestinal stromal tumours in 102 patients: a single institute experience.

OBJECTIVE: Small bowel (SB) is the second most common site of gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs). We evaluated clinical presentation, pathology, imaging features and metastatic pattern of SB GIST. METHODS: Imaging and clinicopathological data of 102 patients with jejunal/ileal GIST treated at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women's Hospital (Boston, MA) between 2002 and 2013 were evaluated. Imaging of treatment-naive primary tumour (41 patients) and follow-up imaging in all patients was reviewed. RESULTS: 90/102 patients were symptomatic at presentation, abdominal pain and lower gastrointestinal blood loss being the most common symptoms. On pathology, 21 GISTs were low risk, 17 were intermediate and 64 were high risk. The mean tumour size was 8.5 cm. On baseline CT (n = 41), tumours were predominantly well circumscribed, exophytic and smooth/mildly lobulated in contour. Of 41 tumours, 16 (39%) were homogeneous, whereas 25 (61%) were heterogeneous. Of the 41 tumours, cystic/necrotic areas (Hounsfield units < 20) were seen in 16 (39%) and calcifications in 9 (22%). CT demonstrated complications in 13/41 (32%) patients in the form of tumour-bowel fistula (TBF) (7/41), bowel obstruction (4/41) and intraperitoneal rupture (2/41). Amongst 102 total patients, metastases developed in 51 (50%) patients (27 at presentation), predominantly involving peritoneum (40/102) and liver (32/102). 7/8 (87%) patients having intraperitoneal rupture at presentation developed metastases. Metastases elsewhere were always associated with hepatic/peritoneal metastases. At last follow-up, 28 patients were deceased (median survival, 65 months). CONCLUSION: SB GISTs were predominantly large, well-circumscribed, exophytic tumours with or without cystic/necrotic areas. Complications such as TBF, bowel obstruction and intraperitoneal perforation were visualized at presentation, with patients with perforation demonstrating a high risk of metastatic disease. Exophytic eccentric bowel wall involvement and lack of associated adenopathy are useful indicators to help differentiate GISTs from other SB neoplasms. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: SB GISTs are predominantly large, well-circumscribed, exophytic tumours, and may present with complications. They often are symptomatic at presentation, are high risk on pathology and metastasize to the peritoneum more commonly than the liver.

Differences in CT features of peritoneal carcinomatosis, sarcomatosis, and lymphomatosis: retrospective analysis of 122 cases at a tertiary cancer institution.

AIMS: To study the differences in the imaging features of spread from the three cancer cell lines, namely epithelial, sarcomatoid, and lymphoid, resulting in peritoneal carcinomatosis, peritoneal sarcomatosis, and peritoneal lymphomatosis, respectively. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this institutional review board-approved Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)-compliant retrospective study, an electronic radiology database was searched to identify patients with peritoneal tumour spread who underwent CT imaging at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, a tertiary cancer institution, between January 2011 and December 2012. Out of 1214 patients with possible peritoneal tumour spread on the radiology reports, 122 patients were included with histopathologically confirmed peritoneal disease (50 randomly selected patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis and sarcomatosis each, and all 22 patients with lymphomatosis). Two blinded, fellowship-trained radiologists in consensus reviewed the CT images in random order and recorded the imaging findings of peritoneal tumour spread. The statistical analysis was performed in two steps: the first comparing incidence of various features in each group and the second step was a pairwise analysis between each cohort. RESULTS: Peritoneal carcinomatosis more frequently had ascites, peritoneal thickening, and omental cake (all p ≤ 0.001). Measurable nodules were less common in peritoneal carcinomatosis (p < 0.001), and when present, were ill-defined and had an irregular outline (p ≤ 0.002). Peritoneal sarcomatosis more often had discrete nodules that were well defined and had a smooth outline and less frequently had ascites, peritoneal thickening, omental caking, serosal implants, and lymphadenopathy (all p ≤ 0.005). Peritoneal lymphomatosis frequently involved the omentum and mesentery, and often had associated lymphadenopathy and splenomegaly (all p ≤ 0.002). CONCLUSION: Peritoneal carcinomatosis, sarcomatosis, and lymphomatosis have distinctive patterns on imaging, which can help the radiologists to differentiate between them.

Pancreaticoduodenectomy: expected post-operative anatomy and complications.

Pancreaticoduodenectomy is a complex, high-risk surgical procedure performed for tumours of the pancreatic head and other periampullary structures. The rate of perioperative mortality has decreased in the past number of years but perioperative morbidity remains high. This pictorial review illustrates expected findings in early and late post-operative periods, including mimickers of pathology. It aims to familiarize radiologists with the imaging appearances of common and unusual post-operative complications. These are classified into early non-vascular complications such as delayed gastric emptying, post-operative collections, pancreatic fistulae and bilomas; late non-vascular complications, for example, biliary strictures and hepatic abscesses; and vascular complications including haemorrhage and ischaemia. Options for minimally invasive image-guided management of vascular and non-vascular complications are discussed. Familiarity with normal anatomic findings is essential in order to distinguish expected post-operative change from surgical complications or recurrent disease. This review summarizes the normal and abnormal radiological findings following pancreaticoduodenectomy.

Ultrasound predictors of malignancy in indeterminate thyroid nodules.

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic thyroid nodules are an increasingly common clinical problem. Lesions greater than a centimetre require cytological assessment. Indeterminate lesions often need surgical excision to establish a definitive diagnosis and plan further management. If a definitive diagnosis could be accurately predicted pre-operatively, the most appropriate surgical procedure could be performed at the initial operation. AIM: The aim of this study was to identify whether specific thyroid ultrasound features could predict malignancy in indeterminate thyroid nodules. METHODS: A retrospective review of all patients undergoing surgery for an indeterminate thyroid lesion between 2006 and 2012 was performed. Demographic features, surgical intervention and final histological findings were determined. Pre-operative ultrasound findings and final histology were correlated and the ultrasonic markers predictive of malignancy were determined. RESULTS: A total of 40 patients were identified as having undergone surgical intervention for indeterminate thyroid nodules. The majority of patients were diagnosed with a follicular adenoma (n = 22; 55 %). Papillary thyroid carcinoma was identified in three patients (7.5 %) and follicular carcinoma in a further 3 (7.5 %). Ultrasound features associated with malignancy included poorly defined nodule borders and increased vascularity. The presence of malignancy was not related to nodule size, echogenicity or the presence of calcifications. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of indeterminate thyroid lesions are benign on final histological assessment. High nodule vascularity associated with ill-defined borders is associated with malignancy. Further research is warranted to identify predictors of malignancy in indeterminate nodules in order to avoid unnecessary or repeated procedures.

Reconstruction of sarcoma defects following pre-operative radiation: free tissue transfer is safe and reliable.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant radiotherapy followed by surgical resection and soft tissue reconstruction provides the best possibility of achieving superior limb function in soft tissue sarcomas. The aim of this study was to report our experience of free flap microsurgical reconstruction of recently irradiated soft tissue sarcoma defects. METHODS: A retrospective study of microsurgical outcome in consecutively treated extremity and trunk sarcoma patients undergoing free tissue transfer between 2007 and 2012 was conducted from a prospectively collected database. Outcomes in pre-operatively irradiated patients were compared with non-irradiated patients. Demographic data, operative details, limb salvage rate, post-operative including microsurgical complications, and long-term limb function (Toronto Extremity Salvage score, TESS; Musculoskeletal Tumour Society Rating Scale, MSTS) were recorded and analysed for differences between the two study groups. RESULTS: Forty-six patients underwent 46 free flaps (pre-irradiated n = 32, non-irradiated n = 14) over the study period. Microvascular complications (intra-operative revision, flap re-exploration, flap loss) were uncommon and similar between the two groups (4/32 and 2/14 respectively, p > 0.05). Recipient site wound healing complications (i.e. not flap related) occurred more frequently in pre-irradiated patients (16 events) compared with the control group (2 events, p = 0.03). There was no significant difference in limb salvage rate, or TESS/MSTS functional outcome scores between the two patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: Free tissue transfer is safe and effective in patients undergoing surgical resection and reconstruction following neoadjuvant radiotherapy.

Audit on breast ultrasound in women under 25 years.

BACKGROUND: Women younger than 30 years with a focal breast finding have a low incidence of malignancy. Targeted ultrasound is an accurate primary imaging test. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All breast ultrasounds performed from July 1, 2011 to September 30, 2011 were reviewed. All ultrasounds in patients under 25 years were reviewed with regard to indication, imaging findings, and pathology results. RESULTS: Over a 3-month period, 855 breast ultrasounds were performed; 4.1 % breast ultrasounds were performed in a patient under 25 years. Twenty patients had imaging features consistent with a fibroadenoma. Pathology confirmed the diagnosis of fibroadenomas in 15 of the patients. Five patients did not have biopsies performed due to young age or presence of bilateral fibroadenoma. CONCLUSION: A breast nodule in a patient under the age of 25 years with benign clinical findings and imaging features consistent with a fibroadenoma does not require biopsy.

Fish vaccine injection injuries of the hand.

High pressure injection of oil-based substances can cause devastating injuries of the hand and the necessity for urgent surgical debridement has been well established. We present three cases of injection injury caused by vaccines used in the fish farming industry. Patients presented with pain, swelling and lymphangitis. The marked vascular changes often associated with such injuries were absent. All patients were treated with intravenous antibiotics combined with early surgical debridement and irrigation. We report full recovery in all three patients.

Inadequacies in the first aid management of burns presenting to plastic surgery services.

Burn injury is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity in Ireland. Simple first aid measures such as immediate wound cooling and removal of the source of injury can significantly improve clinical outcome. We conducted a six-month study, investigating the first aid measures taken by both patients and their primary carers following burn injury. Of the 63 patients referred to the plastic surgery services, only 23.2% had employed the correct first aid principles. Only 20% of patients who sustained burns at work reported that first aid was available in the workplace. This study illustrates that knowledge regarding the initial management of burn injury is very poor. We suggest that a national public health education campaign could have a positive effect on the outcome of burn injury.