A novel diagnostic model for tuberculous meningitis using Bayesian latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is hampered by the lack of a gold standard. Current microbiological tests lack sensitivity and clinical diagnostic approaches are subjective. We therefore built a diagnostic model that can be used before microbiological test results are known. METHODS: We included 659 individuals aged [Formula: see text] years with suspected brain infections from a prospective observational study conducted in Vietnam. We fitted a logistic regression diagnostic model for TBM status, with unknown values estimated via a latent class model on three mycobacterial tests: Ziehl-Neelsen smear, Mycobacterial culture, and GeneXpert. We additionally re-evaluated mycobacterial test performance, estimated individual mycobacillary burden, and quantified the reduction in TBM risk after confirmatory tests were negative. We also fitted a simplified model and developed a scoring table for early screening. All models were compared and validated internally. RESULTS: Participants with HIV, miliary TB, long symptom duration, and high cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lymphocyte count were more likely to have TBM. HIV and higher CSF protein were associated with higher mycobacillary burden. In the simplified model, HIV infection, clinical symptoms with long duration, and clinical or radiological evidence of extra-neural TB were associated with TBM At the cutpoints based on Youden's Index, the sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing TBM for our full and simplified models were 86.0% and 79.0%, and 88.0% and 75.0% respectively. CONCLUSION: Our diagnostic model shows reliable performance and can be developed as a decision assistant for clinicians to detect patients at high risk of TBM. Diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis is hampered by the lack of gold standard. We developed a diagnostic model using latent class analysis, combining confirmatory test results and risk factors. Models were accurate, well-calibrated, and can support both clinical practice and research.

Automated pupillometry and optic nerve sheath diameter ultrasound to define tuberculous meningitis disease severity and prognosis.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) causes high mortality and morbidity, in part due to raised intracranial pressure (ICP). Automated pupillometry (NPi) and optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) are both low-cost, easy-to-use and non-invasive techniques that correlate with ICP and neurological status. However, it is uncertain how to apply these techniques in the management of TBM. METHODS: We conducted a pilot study enrolling 20 adults with TBM in the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Our objective was to investigate the relationships between baseline and serial measurements of NPi and ONSD and disease severity and outcome. Serial NPi and ONSD were performed for 30 days, at discharge, and at 3-months, with measurements correlated with clinical progression and outcomes. RESULTS: ONSD and NPi measurements had an inverse relationship. Higher ONSD and lower NPi values were associated with lower Glasgow coma score. Baseline NPi was a strong predictor 3-month outcome (median NPi 4.55, interquartile range 4.35-4.65 for good outcomes versus 2.60, IQR 0.65-3.95 for poor outcomes, p = 0.002). Pupil inequality (NPi ≥0.7) was also strongly associated with poor 3-month outcomes (p = 0.006). Individual participants' serial NPi and ONSD were variable during initial treatment and correlated with clinical condition and outcome. CONCLUSION: Pupillometry and ONSD may be used to predict clinical deterioration and outcome from TBM. Future, larger studies are need explore the optimal timing of measurements and to define how they might be used to optimise treatments and improve outcomes from TBM.

Urinary catecholamine excretion, cardiovascular variability, and outcomes in tetanus.

Severe tetanus is characterized by muscle spasm and cardiovascular system disturbance. The pathophysiology of muscle spasm is relatively well understood and involves inhibition of central inhibitory synapses by tetanus toxin. That of cardiovascular disturbance is less clear, but is believed to relate to disinhibition of the autonomic nervous system. The clinical syndrome of autonomic nervous system dysfunction (ANSD) seen in severe tetanus is characterized principally by changes in heart rate and blood pressure which have been linked to increased circulating catecholamines. Previous studies have described varying relationships between catecholamines and signs of ANSD in tetanus, but are limited by confounders and assays used. In this study, we aimed to perform detailed characterization of the relationship between catecholamines (adrenaline and noradrenaline), cardiovascular parameters (heart rate and blood pressure) and clinical outcomes (ANSD, mechanical ventilation required, and length of intensive care unit stay) in adults with tetanus, as well as examine whether intrathecal antitoxin administration affected subsequent catecholamine excretion. Noradrenaline and adrenaline were measured by ELISA from 24-h urine collections taken on day 5 of hospitalization in 272 patients enrolled in a 2 × 2 factorial-blinded randomized controlled trial in a Vietnamese hospital. Catecholamine results measured from 263 patients were available for analysis. After adjustment for potential confounders (i.e., age, sex, intervention treatment, and medications), there were indications of non-linear relationships between urinary catecholamines and heart rate. Adrenaline and noradrenaline were associated with subsequent development of ANSD, and length of ICU stay.

Human versus equine intramuscular antitoxin, with or without human intrathecal antitoxin, for the treatment of adults with tetanus: a 2 × 2 factorial randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Intramuscular antitoxin is recommended in tetanus treatment, but there are few data comparing human and equine preparations. Tetanus toxin acts within the CNS, where there is limited penetration of peripherally administered antitoxin; thus, intrathecal antitoxin administration might improve clinical outcomes compared with intramuscular injection. METHODS: In a 2  × 2 factorial trial, all patients aged 16 years or older with a clinical diagnosis of generalised tetanus admitted to the intensive care unit of the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, were eligible for study entry. Participants were randomly assigned first to 3000 IU human or 21 000 U equine intramuscular antitoxin, then to either 500 IU intrathecal human antitoxin or sham procedure. Interventions were delivered by independent clinicians, with attending clinicians and study staff masked to treatment allocations. The primary outcome was requirement for mechanical ventilation. The analysis was done in the intention-to-treat population. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02999815; recruitment is completed. FINDINGS: 272 adults were randomly assigned to interventions between Jan 8, 2017, and Sept 29, 2019, and followed up until May, 2020. In the intrathecal allocation, 136 individuals were randomly assigned to sham procedure and 136 to antitoxin; in the intramuscular allocation, 109 individuals were randomly assigned to equine antitoxin and 109 to human antitoxin. 54 patients received antitoxin at a previous hospital, excluding them from the intramuscular antitoxin groups. Mechanical ventilation was given to 56 (43%) of 130 patients allocated to intrathecal antitoxin and 65 (50%) of 131 allocated to sham procedure (relative risk [RR] 0·87, 95% CI 0·66-1·13; p=0·29). For the intramuscular allocation, 48 (45%) of 107 patients allocated to human antitoxin received mechanical ventilation compared with 48 (44%) of 108 patients allocated to equine antitoxin (RR 1·01, 95% CI 0·75-1·36, p=0·95). No clinically relevant difference in adverse events was reported. 22 (16%) of 136 individuals allocated to the intrathecal group and 22 (11%) of 136 allocated to the sham procedure experienced adverse events related or possibly related to the intervention. 16 (15%) of 108 individuals allocated to equine intramuscular antitoxin and 17 (16%) of 109 allocated to human antitoxin experienced adverse events related or possibly related to the intervention. There were no intervention-related deaths. INTERPRETATION: We found no advantage of intramuscular human antitoxin over intramuscular equine antitoxin in tetanus treatment. Intrathecal antitoxin administration was safe, but did not provide overall benefit in addition to intramuscular antitoxin administration. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust.

Optic Nerve Sheath Ultrasound for the Detection and Monitoring of Raised Intracranial Pressure in Tuberculous Meningitis.

BACKGROUND: Neurological complications of tuberculous meningitis (TBM) often lead to raised intracranial pressure (ICP) resulting in high morbidity and mortality. Measurement of optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) by point-of-care ultrasound may aid in the identification of raised ICP in TBM. METHODS: From June 2017 to December 2019, 107 Vietnamese adults with TBM, enrolled in the ACT HIV or LAST ACT trials (NCT03092817, NCT03100786), underwent ONSD ultrasound at ≥1 of days 0, 3, 7, 14, 21, and day ±30 after enrollment. Demographic data, TBM severity grade, HIV coinfection status, and clinical endpoints by 3 months were recorded. ONSD values were correlated with disease severity, baseline brain imaging, cerebrospinal fluid parameters, and clinical endpoints. RESULTS: 267 ONSD ultrasound scans were performed in 107 participants over the first 30 days of treatment, with measurements from 0.38-0.74 cm. Paired baseline ONSD and brain imaging were performed in 63 participants. Higher baseline ONSD was associated with more severe disease and abnormal brain imaging (abnormal imaging 0.55 cm vs 0.50 cm normal imaging, P = .01). Baseline median ONSD was significantly higher in participants who died by 3 months (0.56 cm [15/72]) versus participants who survived by 3 months (0.52 cm [57/72]) (P = .02). Median ONSD was higher at all follow-up times in participants who died by 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: Higher ONSD was associated with increased disease severity, brain imaging abnormalities, and increased death by 3 months. ONSD ultrasound has a potential role as a noninvasive, affordable bedside tool for predicting brain pathology and death in TBM.

Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra versus Xpert MTB/RIF for the diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis: a prospective, randomised, diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra) might have higher sensitivity than its predecessor, Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert), but its role in tuberculous meningitis diagnosis is uncertain. We aimed to compare Xpert Ultra with Xpert for the diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected adults. METHODS: In this prospective, randomised, diagnostic accuracy study, adults (≥16 years) with suspected tuberculous meningitis from a single centre in Vietnam were randomly assigned to cerebrospinal fluid testing by either Xpert Ultra or Xpert at baseline and, if treated for tuberculous meningitis, after 3-4 weeks of treatment. Test performance (sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values) was calculated for Xpert Ultra and Xpert and compared against clinical and mycobacterial culture reference standards. Analyses were done for all patients and by HIV status. FINDINGS: Between Oct 16, 2017, and Feb 10, 2019, 205 patients were randomly assigned to Xpert Ultra (n=103) or Xpert (n=102). The sensitivities of Xpert Ultra and Xpert for tuberculous meningitis diagnosis against a reference standard of definite, probable, and possible tuberculous meningitis were 47·2% (95% CI 34·4-60·3; 25 of 53 patients) for Xpert Ultra and 39·6% (27·6-53·1; 21 of 53) for Xpert (p=0·56); specificities were 100·0% (95% CI 92·0-100·0; 44 of 44) and 100·0% (92·6-100·0; 48 of 48), respectively. In HIV-negative patients, the sensitivity of Xpert Ultra was 38·9% (24·8-55·1; 14 of 36) versus 22·9% (12·1-39·0; eight of 35) by Xpert (p=0·23). In HIV co-infected patients, the sensitivities were 64·3% (38·8-83·7; nine of 14) for Xpert Ultra and 76·9% (49·7-91·8; ten of 13) for Xpert (p=0·77). Negative predictive values were 61·1% (49·6-71·5) for Xpert Ultra and 60·0% (49·0-70·0) for Xpert. Against a reference standard of mycobacterial culture, sensitivities were 90·9% (72·2-97·5; 20 of 22 patients) for Xpert Ultra and 81·8% (61·5-92·7; 18 of 22) for Xpert (p=0·66); specificities were 93·9% (85·4-97·6; 62 of 66) and 96·9% (89·5-91·2; 63 of 65), respectively. Six (22%) of 27 patients had a positive test by Xpert Ultra after 4 weeks of treatment versus two (9%) of 22 patients by Xpert. INTERPRETATION: Xpert Ultra was not statistically superior to Xpert for the diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected adults. A negative Xpert Ultra or Xpert test does not rule out tuberculous meningitis. New diagnostic strategies are urgently required. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics.