Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of the invasive tomato pinworm Phthorimaea absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae).

Phthorimaea absoluta (Meyrick) (= Tuta absoluta) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), is the most damaging insect pest threatening the production of tomato and other solanaceous vegetables in many countries. In this study, we predicted the risk of establishment and number of generations for P. absoluta in the current and future climatic conditions under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) of the years 2050 and 2070 using insect life cycle modelling (ILCYM) software. We used a temperature-dependent phenology model to project three risk indices viz., establishment risk index (ERI), generation index (GI), and activity index (AI) based on temperature data. The model projected large suitable areas for P. absoluta establishment in the Southern hemisphere under current and future climatic scenarios, compared to the Northern part. However, the risk of P. absoluta is expected to increase in Europe, USA, Southern Africa, and some parts of Asia in the future. Under current conditions, P. absoluta can complete between 6 and 16 generations per year in suitable areas. However, an increase in GI between 1 and 3 per year is projected for most parts of the world in the future, with an increase in AI between 1 and 4. Our results provide information on the risk of establishment of P. absoluta which could guide decision-makers to develop control strategies adapted for specific agro-ecological zones.

Old and new association of Cotesia icipe (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) with alien invasive and native Spodoptera species and key stemborer species: implication for their management.

BACKGROUND: Maize production in Africa is hindered by a myriad of biotic challenges, key among them being invasive and native lepidopteran stemborers. Recent invasion of the continent by fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, has further exacerbated the situation. Fortunately, Cotesia icipe was found to be very promising against S. frugiperda. However, the co-occurrence and interaction between S. frugiperda and the stemborers (Busseola fusca, Sesamia calamistis, and Chilo partellus) in maize agroecosystem may jeopardize the efficiency of C. icipe as a biocontrol agent of S. frugiperda. This study investigated the performance of C. icipe on S. frugiperda, Spodoptera littoralis and the stemborers. Specifically, the preference and acceptability of C. icipe to the host insects, the physiological suitability of the hosts for its development, and the effect of these hosts on the fitness parameters of the offspring were assessed. RESULTS: Cotesia icipe accepted all the tested hosts, albeit with higher preference for Spodoptera species than for stemborers under multiple-choice tests. Also, the highest parasitism of up to 97% was recorded on S. frugiperda compared with parasitism on the stemborers of 43% in B. fusca. Moreover, physiological suitability and fitness traits (except for per cent female offspring) varied with host species, again being optimal on Spodoptera species. CONCLUSION: Cotesia icipe demonstrated strong potential to control S. frugiperda in maize due to its high affinity for parasitization and developmental success in this host; and despite its non-specific parasitization, the presence of other hosts may not prevent its maximum control of S. frugiperda. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Identification, Microhabitat, and Ecological Niche Prediction of Two Promising Native Parasitoids of Tuta absoluta in Kenya.

Associations between the South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), and its native parasitoids need to be updated to increase the implementation of pest control strategies. In this study, T. absoluta-infested tomato plants were collected from three regions in Kenya. The emerged parasitoids were identified, and their abundance was correlated with agroecological parameters, viz. cropping systems, and the abundance of the predator Nesidiocoris tenuis Reuter (Hemiptera: Miridae). The study further conducted a habitat suitability prediction for the identified parasitoids. Two parasitoid species, Bracon nigricans (Szépligeti) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) and Stenomesius sp. near japonicus (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) emerged from T. absoluta immature stages, with parasitism rates ranging from 0 to 21% and 0 to 17% respectively. Insecticide application and open field cropping negatively influenced the parasitism by S. sp. nr japonicus. Low occurrence of N. tenuis positively affected B. nigricans parasitism. The predicted occurrence of parasitoid species indicated vast suitable areas for B. nigricans in sub-Saharan Africa, Australia, and South America. Low suitability was observed for S. sp. nr japonicus in Africa. Therefore, native parasitoids, especially B. nigricans could be considered for implementation as a biocontrol agent in the Integrated Pest Management program of T. absoluta.

Estimating the Demographic Parameters of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Using Temperature-Dependent Development Models and Their Validation under Fluctuating Temperature.

The tomato leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is an invasive pest that devastates the production of tomatoes and other solanaceous vegetables. Since its trans-Atlantic invasion in 2006, T. absoluta has spread and established in many countries across the Afro-Eurasian Supercontinent, causing huge yield losses. This study aimed to determine the relationship between temperature and the life history traits of T. absoluta and provide the thermal thresholds for development using life cycle modelling. Linear and non-linear models were fitted to life table data collected at five constant temperatures of 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 °C, with Relative Humidity 70 ± 5% and photoperiod 12L:12D. Another experiment was conducted at fluctuating temperatures to validate the laboratory results. Tuta absoluta completed its life cycle at temperatures between 15 and 35 °C. The development time ranged between 4.0-11 days, 6.3-16.0 days, and 5.4-20.7 days for egg, larva, and pupa, respectively. The lowest thermal threshold was estimated at 8.10, 7.83, and 11.62 °C, respectively for egg, larva, and pupa. While the optimum temperature for T. absoluta immature stages survival and female fecundity were predicted at a temperature range of 21-23 °C. The intrinsic rate of increase (rm), gross reproductive (GRR), and net reproductive (Ro) rates were significantly higher at temperatures between 20-25 °C. The model validation outcome showed similarities between observed and simulated values for development time, mortality rate, and life table parameters, attesting to the quality of the phenology model. Our results will help in predicting the effect of climate warming on the distribution and population dynamics of T. absoluta. Furthermore, the results could be used to develop management strategies adapted to different agroecological zones.

A deadly encounter: Alien invasive Spodoptera frugiperda in Africa and indigenous natural enemy, Cotesia icipe (Hymenoptera, Braconidae).

The invasion and wide spread of Spodoptera frugiperda represent real impediments to food security and the livelihood of the millions of maize and sorghum farming communities in the sub-Saharan and Sahel regions of Africa. Current management efforts for the pest are focused on the use of synthetic pesticides, which are often economically unviable and are extremely hazardous to the environment. The use of biological control offers a more economically and environmentally safer alternative. In this study, the performance of the recently described parasitoid, Cotesia icipe, against the pest was elucidated. We assessed the host stage acceptability by and suitability for C. icipe, as well as its ovigenic status. Furthermore, the habitat suitability for the parasitoid in the present and future climatic conditions was established using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP). Cotesia icipe differentially accepted the immature stages of the pest. The female acceptance of 1st and 2nd instar larvae for oviposition was significantly higher with more than 60% parasitism. No oviposition on the egg, 5th and 6th larval instars, and pupal stages was observed. Percentage of cocoons formed, and the number of emerged wasps also varied among the larval stages. At initial parasitism, parasitoid progenies, time to cocoon formation and overall developmental time were significantly affected by the larval stage. Egg-load varied significantly with wasp age, with six-day-old wasps having the highest number of mature eggs. Ovigeny index of C. icipe was 0.53. Based on the models, there is collinearity in the ecological niche of the parasitoid and the pest under current and future climate scenarios. Eastern, Central and parts of coastal areas of western Africa are highly suitable for the establishment of the parasitoid. The geographic distribution of the parasitoid would remain similar under future climatic conditions. In light of the findings of this study, we discuss the prospects for augmentative and classical biological control of S. frugiperda with C. icipe in Africa.

The South America Tomato Leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), Spreads Its Wings in Eastern Africa: Distribution and Socioeconomic Impacts.

Following the arrival of Tuta absoluta Meyrick in the eastern African subregion in 2012, several studies have shown numerous ecological aspects of its invasion. We investigated the impact of T. absoluta on people's livelihoods across four counties of Kenya. Here, 200 farmers in the country were interviewed in person using semistructured questionnaires. In addition to livelihood surveys, T. absoluta distribution was mapped between 2016 and 2018 to determine its current distribution across four countries (Kenya, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) in the subregion. Albeit a recent invader, T. absoluta is abundant and distributed throughout the subregion and is viewed as the worst invasive alien species of agriculturally sustainable livelihoods by tomato farmers. The arrival of T. absoluta in the subregion has resulted in livelihood losses and increased both the cost of tomato production and frequency of pesticide application. We recommend the implementation of biological control along, with other control measures in an integrated approach, against T. absoluta in the subregion, where its impact on sustainable livelihoods is serious and long-term control strategies are required to curb its detrimental effects.