Public health determinants of child malaria mortality: a surveillance study within Siaya County, Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Malaria deaths among children have been declining worldwide during the last two decades. Despite preventive, epidemiologic and therapy-development work, mortality rate decline has stagnated in western Kenya resulting in persistently high child malaria morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to identify public health determinants influencing the high burden of malaria deaths among children in this region. METHODS: A total of 221,929 children, 111,488 females and 110,441 males, under the age of 5 years were enrolled in the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Center for Disease Control Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KEMRI/CDC HDSS) study area in Siaya County during the period 2003-2013. Cause of death was determined by use of verbal autopsy. Age-specific mortality rates were computed, and cox proportional hazard regression was used to model time to malaria death controlling for the socio-demographic factors. A variety of demographic, social and epidemiologic factors were examined. RESULTS: In total 8,696 (3.9%) children died during the study period. Malaria was the most prevalent cause of death and constituted 33.2% of all causes of death, followed by acute respiratory infections (26.7%) and HIV/AIDS related deaths (18.6%). There was a marked decrease in overall mortality rate from 2003 to 2013, except for a spike in the rates in 2008. The hazard of death differed between age groups with the youngest having the highest hazard of death HR 6.07 (95% CI 5.10-7.22). Overall, the risk attenuated with age and mortality risks were limited beyond 4 years of age. Longer distance to healthcare HR of 1.44 (95% CI 1.29-1.60), l ow maternal education HR 3.91 (95% CI 1.86-8.22), and low socioeconomic status HR 1.44 (95% CI 1.26-1.64) were all significantly associated with increased hazard of malaria death among children. CONCLUSIONS: While child mortality due to malaria in the study area in Western Kenya, has been decreasing, a final step toward significant risk reduction is yet to be accomplished. This study highlights residual proximal determinants of risk which can further inform preventive actions.

Reframing Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries for Equity in the Era of Universal Health Coverage: Findings and Recommendations from the Kenya NCDI Poverty Commission.

Background: Kenya has implemented a robust response to non-communicable diseases and injuries (NCDIs); however, key gaps in health services for NCDIs still exist in the attainment of Universal Health Coverage (UHC). The Kenya Non-Communicable Diseases and Injury (NCDI) Poverty Commission was established to estimate the burden of NCDIs, determine the availability and coverage of health services, prioritize an expanded set of NCDI conditions, and propose cost-effective and equity-promoting interventions to avert the health and economic consequences of NCDIs in Kenya. Methods: Burden of NCDIs in Kenya was determined using desk review of published literature, estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study, and secondary analysis of local health surveillance data. Secondary analysis of nationally representative surveys was conducted to estimate current availability and coverage of services by socioeconomic status. The Commission then conducted a structured priority setting process to determine priority NCDI conditions and health sector interventions based on published evidence. Findings: There is a large and diverse burden of NCDIs in Kenya, with the majority of disability-adjusted life-years occurring before age of 40. The poorest wealth quintiles experience a substantially higher deaths rate from NCDIs, lower coverage of diagnosis and treatment for NCDIs, and lower availability of NCDI-related health services. The Commission prioritized 14 NCDIs and selected 34 accompanying interventions for recommendation to achieve UHC. These interventions were estimated to cost $11.76 USD per capita annually, which represents 15% of current total health expenditure. This investment could potentially avert 9,322 premature deaths per year by 2030. Conclusions and Recommendations: An expanded set of priority NCDI conditions and health sector interventions are required in Kenya to achieve UHC, particularly for disadvantaged socioeconomic groups. We provided recommendations for integration of services within existing health services platforms and financing mechanisms and coordination of whole-of-government approaches for the prevention and treatment of NCDIs.

Conceptual frameworks for understanding the acceptability and feasibility of the minimally invasive autopsy to determine cause of death: Findings from the CADMIA Study in western Kenya.

Establishing the cause of death (CoD) is critical to better understanding health and prioritizing health investments, however the use of full post-mortem examination is rare in most low and middle-income counties for multiple reasons. The use of minimally invasive autopsy (MIA) approaches, such as needle biopsies, presents an alternate means to assess CoD. In order to understand the feasibility and acceptability of MIA among communities in western Kenya, we conducted focus groups and in-depth interviews with next-of-kin of recently deceased persons, community leaders and health care workers in Siaya and Kisumu counties. Results suggest two conceptual framework can be drawn, one with facilitating factors for acceptance of MIA due to the ability to satisfy immediate needs related to interest in learning CoD or protecting social status and honoring the deceased), and one framework covering barriers to acceptance of MIA, for reasons relating to the failure to serve an existing need, and/or the exacerbation of an already difficult time.

Modelling the relationship between malaria prevalence as a measure of transmission and mortality across age groups.

BACKGROUND: Parasite prevalence has been used widely as a measure of malaria transmission, especially in malaria endemic areas. However, its contribution and relationship to malaria mortality across different age groups has not been well investigated. Previous studies in a health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) platform in western Kenya quantified the contribution of incidence and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) to mortality. The study assessed the relationship between outcomes of malaria parasitaemia surveys and mortality across age groups. METHODS: Parasitological data from annual cross-sectional surveys from the Kisumu HDSS between 2007 and 2015 were used to determine malaria parasite prevalence (PP) and clinical malaria (parasites plus reported fever within 24 h or temperature above 37.5 °C). Household surveys and verbal autopsy (VA) were used to obtain data on all-cause and malaria-specific mortality. Bayesian negative binomial geo-statistical regression models were used to investigate the association of PP/clinical malaria with mortality across different age groups. Estimates based on yearly data were compared with those from aggregated data over 4 to 5-year periods, which is the typical period that mortality data are available from national demographic and health surveys. RESULTS: Using 5-year aggregated data, associations were established between parasite prevalence and malaria-specific mortality in the whole population (RRmalaria = 1.66; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals: 1.07-2.54) and children 1-4 years (RRmalaria = 2.29; 1.17-4.29). While clinical malaria was associated with both all-cause and malaria-specific mortality in combined ages (RRall-cause = 1.32; 1.01-1.74); (RRmalaria = 2.50; 1.27-4.81), children 1-4 years (RRall-cause = 1.89; 1.00-3.51); (RRmalaria = 3.37; 1.23-8.93) and in older children 5-14 years (RRall-cause = 3.94; 1.34-11.10); (RRmalaria = 7.56; 1.20-39.54), no association was found among neonates, adults (15-59 years) and the elderly (60+ years). Distance to health facilities, socioeconomic status, elevation and survey year were important factors for all-cause and malaria-specific mortality. CONCLUSION: Malaria parasitaemia from cross-sectional surveys was associated with mortality across age groups over 4 to 5 year periods with clinical malaria more strongly associated with mortality than parasite prevalence. This effect was stronger in children 5-14 years compared to other age-groups. Further analyses of data from other HDSS sites or similar platforms would be useful in investigating the relationship between malaria and mortality across different endemicity levels.

An online decision tree for vaccine efficacy trial design during infectious disease epidemics: The InterVax-Tool.

BACKGROUND: Licensed vaccines are urgently needed for emerging infectious diseases, but the nature of these epidemics causes challenges for the design of phase III trials to evaluate vaccine efficacy. Designing and executing rigorous, fast, and ethical, vaccine efficacy trials is difficult, and the decisions and limitations in the design of these trials encompass epidemiological, logistical, regulatory, statistical, and ethical dimensions. RESULTS: Trial design decisions are complex and interrelated, but current guidance documents do not lend themselves to efficient decision-making. We created InterVax-Tool (http://vaxeval.com), an online, interactive decision-support tool, to help diverse stakeholders navigate the decisions in the design of phase III vaccine trials. InterVax-Tool offers high-level visual and interactive assistance through a set of four decision trees, guiding users through selection of the: (1) Primary Endpoint, (2) Target Population, (3) Randomization Scheme, and, (4) Comparator. We provide guidance on how key considerations - grouped as Epidemiological, Vaccine-related, Infrastructural, or Sociocultural - inform each decision in the trial design process. CONCLUSIONS: InterVax-Tool facilitates structured, transparent, and collaborative discussion of trial design, while recording the decision-making process. Users can save and share their decisions, which is useful both for comparing proposed trial designs, and for justifying particular design choices. Here, we describe the goals and features of InterVax-Tool as well as its application to the design of a Zika vaccine efficacy trial.

Rates of hospitalization and death for all-cause and rotavirus acute gastroenteritis before rotavirus vaccine introduction in Kenya, 2010-2013.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccine was introduced in Kenya immunization program in July 2014. Pre-vaccine disease burden estimates are important for assessing vaccine impact. METHODS: Children with acute gastroenteritis (AGE) (≥3 loose stools and/or ≥ 1 episode of unexplained vomiting followed by loose stool within a 24-h period), hospitalized in Siaya County Referral Hospital (SCRH) from January 2010 through December 2013 were enrolled. Stool specimens were tested for rotavirus (RV) using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA). Hospitalization rates were calculated using person-years of observation (PYO) from the Health Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) as a denominator, while adjusting for healthcare utilization at household level and proportion of stool specimen collected from patients who met the case definition at the surveillance hospital. Mortality rates were calculated using PYO as the denominator and number of deaths estimated using total deaths in the HDSS, proportion of deaths attributed to diarrhoea by verbal autopsy (VA) and percent positive for rotavirus AGE (RVAGE) hospitalizations. RESULTS: Of 7760 all-cause hospitalizations among children < 5 years of age, 3793 (49%) were included in the analysis. Of these, 21% (805) had AGE; RV was detected in 143 (26%) of 541 stools tested. Among children < 5 years, the estimated hospitalization rates per 100,000 PYO for AGE and RVAGE were 2413 and 429, respectively. Mortality rate associated with AGE and RVAGE were 176 and 45 per 100,000 PYO, respectively. CONCLUSION: AGE and RVAGE caused substantial health care burden (hospitalizations and deaths) before rotavirus vaccine introduction in Kenya.

Uptake of skilled attendance along the continuum of care in rural Western Kenya: selected analysis from Global Health initiative survey-2012.

BACKGROUND: Examining skilled attendance throughout pregnancy, delivery and immediate postnatal period is proxy indicator on the progress towards reduction of maternal and neonatal mortality in developing countries. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional baseline survey of households of mothers with at least 1 child under-5 years in 2012 within the KEMRI/CDC health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) area in rural western Kenya. RESULTS: Out of 8260 mother-child pairs, data on antenatal care (ANC) in the most recent pregnancy was obtained for 89% (n = 8260); 97% (n = 7387) reported attendance. Data on number of ANC visits was available for 89% (n = 7140); 52% (n = 6335) of mothers reported ≥4 ANC visits. Data on gestation month at first ANC was available for 94% (n = 7140) of mothers; 14% (n = 6690) reported first visit was in1sttrimester (0-12 weeks), 73% in 2nd trimester (14-28 weeks) and remaining 13% in third trimester. Forty nine percent (n = 8259) of mothers delivered in a Health Facility (HF), 48% at home and 3% en route to HF. Forty percent (n = 7140) and 63% (n = 4028) of mothers reporting ANC attendance and HF delivery respectively also reported receiving postnatal care (PNC). About 36% (n = 8259) of mothers reported newborn assessment (NBA). Sixty eight percent (n = 3966) of mothers that delivered at home reported taking newborn for HF check-up, with only 5% (n = 2693) doing so within 48 h of delivery. Being ≤34 years (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.4-2.4) and at least primary education (OR 5.3; 95% CI 1.8-15.3) were significantly associated with ANC attendance. Being ≤34 years (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.5-2.0), post-secondary vs primary education (OR 10; 95% CI 4.4-23.4), ANC attendance (OR 4.5; 95% CI 3.2-6.1), completing ≥4 ANC visits (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.8-2.2), were strongly associated with HF delivery. The continuum of care was such that 97% (n = 7387) mothers reported ANC attendance, 49% reported both ANC and HF delivery attendance, 34% reported ANC, HF delivery and PNC attendance and only 18% reported ANC, HF delivery, PNC and NBA attendance. CONCLUSION: Uptake of services drastically declined from antenatal to postnatal period, along the continuum of care. Age and education were key determinants of uptake.

Identifying gaps in HIV policy and practice along the HIV care continuum: evidence from a national policy review and health facility surveys in urban and rural Kenya.

The last decade has seen rapid evolution in guidance from the WHO concerning the provision of HIV services along the diagnosis-to-treatment continuum, but the extent to which these recommendations are adopted as national policies in Kenya, and subsequently implemented in health facilities, is not well understood. Identifying gaps in policy coverage and implementation is important for highlighting areas for improving service delivery, leading to better health outcomes. We compared WHO guidance with national policies for HIV testing and counselling, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, HIV treatment and retention in care. We then investigated implementation of these national policies in health facilities in one rural (Kisumu) and one urban (Nairobi) sites in Kenya. Implementation was documented using structured questionnaires that were administered to in-charge staff at 10 health facilities in Nairobi and 34 in Kisumu. Policies were defined as widely implemented if they were reported to occur in > 70% facilities, partially implemented if reported to occur in 30-70% facilities, and having limited implementation if reported to occur in < 30% facilities. Overall, Kenyan national HIV care and treatment policies were well aligned with WHO guidance. Policies promoting access to treatment and retention in care were widely implemented, but there was partial or limited implementation of several policies promoting access to HIV testing, and the more recent policy of Option B+ for HIV-positive pregnant women. Efforts are needed to improve implementation of policies designed to increase rates of diagnosis, thus facilitating entry into HIV care, if morbidity and mortality burdens are to be further reduced in Kenya, and as the country moves towards universal access to antiretroviral therapy.

Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of mortality in relation to malaria incidence in Western Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: The effect of malaria exposure on mortality using health facility incidence data as a measure of transmission has not been well investigated. Health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) routinely capture data on mortality, interventions and other household related indicators, offering a unique platform for estimating and monitoring the incidence-mortality relationship in space and time. METHODS: Mortality data from the HDSS located in Western Kenya collected from 2007 to 2012 and linked to health facility incidence data were analysed using Bayesian spatio-temporal survival models to investigate the relation between mortality (all-cause/malaria-specific) and malaria incidence across all age groups. The analysis adjusted for insecticide-treated net (ITN) ownership, socio-economic status (SES), distance to health facilities and altitude. The estimates obtained were used to quantify excess mortality due to malaria exposure. RESULTS: Our models identified a strong positive relationship between slide positivity rate (SPR) and all-cause mortality in young children 1-4 years (HR = 4.29; 95% CI: 2.78-13.29) and all ages combined (HR = 1.55; 1.04-2.80). SPR had a strong positive association with malaria-specific mortality in young children (HR = 9.48; 5.11-37.94), however, in older children (5-14 years), it was associated with a reduction in malaria specific mortality (HR = 0.02; 0.003-0.33). CONCLUSION: SPR as a measure of transmission captures well the association between malaria transmission intensity and all-cause/malaria mortality. This offers a quick and efficient way to monitor malaria burden. Excess mortality estimates indicate that small changes in malaria incidence substantially reduce overall and malaria specific mortality.

Mobile phone-delivered reminders and incentives to improve childhood immunisation coverage and timeliness in Kenya (M-SIMU): a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: As mobile phone access continues to expand globally, opportunities exist to leverage these technologies to support demand for immunisation services and improve vaccine coverage. We aimed to assess whether short message service (SMS) reminders and monetary incentives can improve immunisation uptake in Kenya. METHODS: In this cluster-randomised controlled trial, villages were randomly and evenly allocated to four groups: control, SMS only, SMS plus a 75 Kenya Shilling (KES) incentive, and SMS plus 200 KES (85 KES = USD$1). Caregivers were eligible if they had a child younger than 5 weeks who had not yet received a first dose of pentavalent vaccine. Participants in the intervention groups received SMS reminders before scheduled pentavalent and measles immunisation visits. Participants in incentive groups, additionally, received money if their child was timely immunised (immunisation within 2 weeks of the due date). Caregivers and interviewers were not masked. The proportion of fully immunised children (receiving BCG, three doses of polio vaccine, three doses of pentavalent vaccine, and measles vaccine) by 12 months of age constituted the primary outcome and was analysed with log-binomial regression and General Estimating Equations to account for correlation within clusters. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01878435. FINDINGS: Between Oct 14, 2013, and Oct 17, 2014, we enrolled 2018 caregivers and their infants from 152 villages into the following four groups: control (n=489), SMS only (n=476), SMS plus 75 KES (n=562), and SMS plus 200 KES (n=491). Overall, 1375 (86%) of 1600 children who were successfully followed up achieved the primary outcome, full immunisation by 12 months of age (296 [82%] of 360 control participants, 332 [86%] of 388 SMS only participants, 383 [86%] of 446 SMS plus 75 KES participants, and 364 [90%] of 406 SMS plus 200 KES participants). Children in the SMS plus 200 KES group were significantly more likely to achieve full immunisation at 12 months of age (relative risk 1·09, 95% CI 1·02-1·16, p=0·014) than children in the control group. INTERPRETATION: In a setting with high baseline immunisation coverage levels, SMS reminders coupled with incentives significantly improved immunisation coverage and timeliness. Given that global immunisation coverage levels have stagnated around 85%, the use of incentives might be one option to reach the remaining 15%. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Integrating community-based verbal autopsy into civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS): system-level considerations.

BACKGROUND: Reliable and representative cause of death (COD) statistics are essential to inform public health policy, respond to emerging health needs, and document progress towards Sustainable Development Goals. However, less than one-third of deaths worldwide are assigned a cause. Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems in low- and lower-middle-income countries are failing to provide timely, complete and accurate vital statistics, and it will still be some time before they can provide physician-certified COD for every death. Proposals: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a method to ascertain the probable COD and, although imperfect, it is the best alternative in the absence of medical certification. There is extensive experience with VA in research settings but only a few examples of its use on a large scale. Data collection using electronic questionnaires on mobile devices and computer algorithms to analyse responses and estimate probable COD have increased the potential for VA to be routinely applied in CRVS systems. However, a number of CRVS and health system integration issues should be considered in planning, piloting and implementing a system-wide intervention such as VA. These include addressing the multiplicity of stakeholders and sub-systems involved, integration with existing CRVS work processes and information flows, linking VA results to civil registration records, information technology requirements and data quality assurance. CONCLUSIONS: Integrating VA within CRVS systems is not simply a technical undertaking. It will have profound system-wide effects that should be carefully considered when planning for an effective implementation. This paper identifies and discusses the major system-level issues and emerging practices, provides a planning checklist of system-level considerations and proposes an overview for how VA can be integrated into routine CRVS systems.

Menstrual cups and sanitary pads to reduce school attrition, and sexually transmitted and reproductive tract infections: a cluster randomised controlled feasibility study in rural Western Kenya.

OBJECTIVES: Conduct a feasibility study on the effect of menstrual hygiene on schoolgirls' school and health (reproductive/sexual) outcomes. DESIGN: 3-arm single-site open cluster randomised controlled pilot study. SETTING: 30 primary schools in rural western Kenya, within a Health and Demographic Surveillance System. PARTICIPANTS: Primary schoolgirls 14-16 years, experienced 3 menses, no precluding disability, and resident in the study area. INTERVENTIONS: 1 insertable menstrual cup, or monthly sanitary pads, against 'usual practice' control. All participants received puberty education preintervention, and hand wash soap during intervention. Schools received hand wash soap. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary: school attrition (drop-out, absence); secondary: sexually transmitted infection (STI) (Trichomonas vaginalis, Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoea), reproductive tract infection (RTI) (bacterial vaginosis, Candida albicans); safety: toxic shock syndrome, vaginal Staphylococcus aureus. RESULTS: Of 751 girls enrolled 644 were followed-up for a median of 10.9 months. Cups or pads did not reduce school dropout risk (control=8.0%, cups=11.2%, pads=10.2%). Self-reported absence was rarely reported and not assessable. Prevalence of STIs in the end-of-study survey among controls was 7.7% versus 4.2% in the cups arm (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) 0.48, 0.24 to 0.96, p=0.039), 4.5% with pads (aPR=0.62; 0.37 to 1.03, p=0.063), and 4.3% with cups and pads pooled (aPR=0.54, 0.34 to 0.87, p=0.012). RTI prevalence was 21.5%, 28.5% and 26.9% among cup, pad and control arms, 71% of which were bacterial vaginosis, with a prevalence of 14.6%, 19.8% and 20.5%, per arm, respectively. Bacterial vaginosis was less prevalent in the cups (12.9%) compared with pads (20.3%, aPR=0.65, 0.44 to 0.97, p=0.034) and control (19.2%, aPR=0.67, 0.43 to 1.04, p=0.075) arm girls enrolled for 9 months or longer. No adverse events were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Provision of menstrual cups and sanitary pads for ∼1 school-year was associated with a lower STI risk, and cups with a lower bacterial vaginosis risk, but there was no association with school dropout. A large-scale trial on menstrual cups is warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17486946; Results.

Willingness to Know the Cause of Death and Hypothetical Acceptability of the Minimally Invasive Autopsy in Six Diverse African and Asian Settings: A Mixed Methods Socio-Behavioural Study.

BACKGROUND: The minimally invasive autopsy (MIA) is being investigated as an alternative to complete diagnostic autopsies for cause of death (CoD) investigation. Before potential implementation of the MIA in settings where post-mortem procedures are unusual, a thorough assessment of its feasibility and acceptability is essential. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a socio-behavioural study at the community level to understand local attitudes and perceptions related to death and the hypothetical feasibility and acceptability of conducting MIAs in six distinct settings in Gabon, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, and Pakistan. A total of 504 interviews (135 key informants, 175 health providers [including formal health professionals and traditional or informal health providers], and 194 relatives of deceased people) were conducted. The constructs "willingness to know the CoD" and "hypothetical acceptability of MIAs" were quantified and analysed using the framework analysis approach to compare the occurrence of themes related to acceptability across participants. Overall, 75% (379/504) of the participants would be willing to know the CoD of a relative. The overall hypothetical acceptability of MIA on a relative was 73% (366/504). The idea of the MIA was acceptable because of its perceived simplicity and rapidity and particularly for not "mutilating" the body. Further, MIAs were believed to help prevent infectious diseases, address hereditary diseases, clarify the CoD, and avoid witchcraft accusations and conflicts within families. The main concerns regarding the procedure included the potential breach of confidentiality on the CoD, the misperception of organ removal, and the incompatibility with some religious beliefs. Formal health professionals were concerned about possible contradictions between the MIA findings and the clinical pre-mortem diagnoses. Acceptability of the MIA was equally high among Christian and Islamic communities. However, in the two predominantly Muslim countries, MIA acceptability was higher in Mali than in Pakistan. While the results of the study are encouraging for the potential use of the MIA for CoD investigation in low-income settings, they remain hypothetical, with a need for confirmation with real-life MIA implementation and in populations beyond Health and Demographic Surveillance System areas. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed a high level of interest in knowing the CoD of a relative and a high hypothetical acceptability of MIAs as a tool for CoD investigation across six distinct settings. These findings anticipate potential barriers and facilitators, both at the health facility and community level, essential for local tailoring of recommendations for future MIA implementation.

Pregnant Women's Intentions and Subsequent Behaviors Regarding Maternal and Neonatal Service Utilization: Results from a Cohort Study in Nyanza Province, Kenya.

Higher use of maternal and neonatal health (MNH) services may reduce maternal and neonatal mortality in Kenya. This study aims to: 1) prospectively explore women's intentions to use MNH services (antenatal care, delivery in a facility, postnatal care, neonatal care) at <20 and 30-35 weeks' gestation and their actual use of these services; 2) identify predictors of intention-behavior discordance among women with positive service use intentions; 3) examine associations between place of delivery, women's reasons for choosing it, and birthing experiences. We used data from a 2012-2013 population-based cohort of pregnant women in the Demographic Surveillance Site in Nyanza province, Kenya. Of 1,056 women completing the study (89.1% response rate), 948 had live-births and 22 stillbirths, and they represent our analytic sample. Logistic regression analysis identified predictors of intention-behavior discordance regarding delivery in a facility and use of postnatal and neonatal care. At <20 and 30-35 weeks' gestation, most women intended to seek MNH services (≥93.9% and ≥87.5%, respectively, for all services assessed). Actual service use was high for antenatal (98.1%) and neonatal (88.5%) care, but lower for delivery in a facility (76.9%) and postnatal care (51.8%). Woman's age >35 and high-school education were significant predictors of intention-behavior discordance regarding delivery in a facility; several delivery-related factors were significantly associated with intention-behavior discordance regarding use of postnatal and neonatal care. Delivery facilities were chosen based on proximity to women's residence, affordability, and service quality; among women who delivered outside a health facility, 16.3% could not afford going to a facility. Good/very good birth experiences were reported by 93.6% of women who delivered in a facility and 32.6% of women who did not. We found higher MNH service utilization than previously documented in Nyanza province. Further increasing the number of facility deliveries and use of postnatal care may improve MNH in Kenya.

Healthy or unhealthy migrants? Identifying internal migration effects on mortality in Africa using health and demographic surveillance systems of the INDEPTH network.

Migration has been hypothesised to be selective on health but this healthy migrant hypothesis has generally been tested at destinations, and for only one type of flow, from deprived to better-off areas. The circulatory nature of migration is rarely accounted for. This study examines the relationship between different types of internal migration and adult mortality in Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) populations in West, East, and Southern Africa, and asks how the processes of selection, adaptation and propagation explain the migration-mortality relationship experienced in these contexts. The paper uses longitudinal data representing approximately 900 000 adults living in nine sub-Saharan African HDSS sites of the INDEPTH Network. Event History Analysis techniques are employed to examine the relationship between all-cause mortality and migration status, over periods ranging from 3 to 14 years for a total of nearly 4.5 million person-years. The study confirms the importance of migration in explaining variation in mortality, and the diversity of the migration-mortality relationship over a range of rural and urban local areas in the three African regions. The results confirm that the pattern of migration-mortality relationship is not exclusively explained by selection but also by propagation and adaptation. Consequences for public health policy are drawn.

The Mobile Solutions for Immunization (M-SIMU) Trial: A Protocol for a Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial That Assesses the Impact of Mobile Phone Delivered Reminders and Travel Subsidies to Improve Childhood Immunization Coverage Rates and Timeliness in Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Text message (short message service, SMS) reminders and incentives are two demand-side interventions that have been shown to improve health care-seeking behaviors by targeting participant characteristics such as forgetfulness, lack of knowledge, and transport costs. Applying these interventions to routine pediatric immunizations may improve vaccination coverage and timeliness. OBJECTIVE: The Mobile Solutions for Immunization (M-SIMU) trial aims to determine if text message reminders, either with or without mobile phone-based incentives, sent to infant's parents can improve immunization coverage and timeliness of routine pediatric vaccines in rural western Kenya. METHODS: This is a four-arm, cluster, randomized controlled trial. Villages are randomized to one of four study arms prior to enrollment of participants. The study arms are: (1) no intervention (a general health-related text message will be texted to this group at the time of enrollment), (2) text message reminders only, (3) text message reminders and a 75 Kenyan Shilling (KES) incentive, or (4) text message reminders and a KES200 incentive. Participants assigned to study arms 2-4 will receive two text message reminders; sent 3 days before and one day before the scheduled immunization visit at 6, 10, and 14 weeks for polio and pentavalent (containing diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B, and Haemophilus influenza type b antigens) type b antigens) vaccines, and at 9 months for measles vaccine. Participants in incentive arms will, in addition to text message reminders as above, receive mobile phone-based incentives after each timely vaccination, where timely is defined as vaccination within 2 weeks of the scheduled date for each of the four routine expanded program immunization (EPI) vaccination visits. Mother-infant pairs will be followed to 12 months of age where the primary outcome, a fully immunized child, will be ascertained. A fully immunized child is defined as a child receiving vaccines for bacille Calmette-Guerin, three doses of pentavalent and polio, and measles by 12 months of age. General estimating equation (GEE) models that account for clustering will be employed for primary outcome analyses. RESULTS: Enrollment was completed in October 2014. Twelve month follow-up visits to ascertain immunization status from the maternal and child health booklet were completed in February 2016. CONCLUSIONS: This is one of the first studies to examine the effect of text message reminders on immunization coverage and timeliness in a lower income country and is the first study to assess the effect of mobile money-based incentives to improve immunization coverage. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01878435; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01878435 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6hQlwGYJR).

Weekly miscarriage rates in a community-based prospective cohort study in rural western Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: Information on adverse pregnancy outcomes is important to monitor the impact of public health interventions. Miscarriage is a challenging end point to ascertain and there is scarce information on its rate in low-income countries. The objective was to estimate the background rate and cumulative probability of miscarriage in rural western Kenya. DESIGN: This was a population-based prospective cohort. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Women of childbearing age were followed prospectively to identify pregnancies and ascertain their outcomes in Siaya County, western Kenya. The cohort study was carried out in 33 adjacent villages under health and demographic surveillance. OUTCOME MEASURE: Miscarriage. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2013, among 5536 women of childbearing age, 1453 pregnancies were detected and 1134 were included in the analysis. The cumulative probability was 18.9%. The weekly miscarriage rate declined steadily with increasing gestation until approximately 20 weeks. Known risk factors for miscarriage such as maternal age, gravidity, occupation, household wealth and HIV infection were confirmed. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report of weekly miscarriage rates in a rural African setting in the context of high HIV and malaria prevalence. Future studies should consider the involvement of community health workers to identify the pregnancy cohort of early gestation for better data on the actual number of pregnancies and the assessment of miscarriage.

Human capital on the move: Education as a determinant of internal migration in selected INDEPTH surveillance populations in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Education, as a key indicator of human capital, is considered one of the major determinants of internal migration, with previous studies suggesting that human capital accumulates in urban areas at the expense of rural areas. However, there is fragmentary evidence concerning the educational correlates of internal migration in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVES: The study questions whether more precise measures of migration in Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) populations support the hypothesis that migrants are self-selected on human capital and more educated people are more likely to leave rural areas or enter urban areas within a geographical region. METHODS: Using unique longitudinal data representing approximately 900,000 people living in eight sub-Saharan African HDSS sites that are members of the INDEPTH Network, the paper uses Event History Analysis techniques to examine the relationship between formal educational attainment and in-and out-migration, over the period 2009 to 2011. RESULTS: Between 7% and 27% of these local populations are moving in or out of the HDSS area over this period. Education is positively associated with both in-and out-migration in the Kenyan HDSS areas; however, the education effect has no clear pattern in the HDSS sites in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, and South Africa. CONCLUSIONS: Empirical results presented in this paper confirm a strong age profile of migration consistent with human capital expectation, yet the results point to variability in the association of education and the propensity to migrate. In particular, the hypothesis of a shift of human capital from rural to urban areas is not universally valid.

Risks of miscarriage and inadvertent exposure to artemisinin derivatives in the first trimester of pregnancy: a prospective cohort study in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The artemisinin anti-malarials are widely deployed as artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). However, they are not recommended for uncomplicated malaria during the first trimester because safety data from humans are scarce. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of women of child-bearing age carried out in 2011-2013, evaluating the relationship between inadvertent ACT exposure during first trimester and miscarriage. Community-based surveillance was used to identify 1134 early pregnancies. Cox proportional hazard models with left truncation were used. RESULTS: The risk of miscarriage among pregnancies exposed to ACT (confirmed + unconfirmed) in the first trimester, or during the embryo-sensitive period (≥6 to <13 weeks gestation) was higher than among pregnancies unexposed to anti-malarials in the first trimester: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.70, 95 % CI (1.08-2.68) and HR = 1.61 (0.96-2.70). For confirmed ACT-exposures (primary analysis) the corresponding values were: HR = 1.24 (0.56-2.74) and HR = 0.73 (0.19-2.82) relative to unexposed women, and HR = 0.99 (0.12-8.33) and HR = 0.32 (0.03-3.61) relative to quinine exposure, but the numbers of quinine exposures were very small. CONCLUSION: ACT exposure in early pregnancy was more common than quinine exposure. Confirmed inadvertent artemisinin exposure during the potential embryo-sensitive period was not associated with increased risk of miscarriage. Confirmatory studies are needed to rule out a smaller than three-fold increase in risk.

Individual level determinants for not receiving immunization, receiving immunization with delay, and being severely underimmunized among rural western Kenyan children.

BACKGROUND: Estimating vaccination coverage and delays are important because these measures can identify at risk sub-populations who can be targeted with interventions and public health policies. This paper sought to determine estimates and risk factors for children in rural western Kenya who did not receive immunization, received immunization with delay, or were severely underimmunized. METHODS: Caregivers of children aged 12-23 months old were surveyed for immunization history using written records from the immunization booklet. Risk factors for not receiving immunization, delayed immunization, and severe underimmunization were calculated using log-binomial regression. Children were categorized as delayed if a given immunization was received greater than four weeks from the age-appropriate scheduled date. Severely underimmunized children were those who were fully unvaccinated for more than 90 days and had three or more vaccines delayed or not given. RESULTS: Immunization coverage for pentavalent1, pentavalent3, measles, and fully immunized child (FIC; BCG, three doses of polio, three doses of pentavalent, and measles vaccines) were 99%, 94%, 83%, and 80%, respectively. Approximately, 10%, 24%, and 29%, of children were delayed for pentavalent1, pentavalent3, and measles, respectively. Each model produced a unique combination of risk factors with only advanced maternal age as a risk factor common to all models. Children with delayed receipt of pentavalent1 were at risk for not receiving pentavalent3 (RR: 5.20; 95%CI 3.48, 7.77), measles vaccine (RR: 1.48; 95%CI 1.12, 1.95), and not achieving FIC (RR: 1.88; 95%CI 1.51, 2.34) compared with children who received pentavalent1 on time. CONCLUSIONS: Immunization coverage among 12-23 month old children was high, yet a substantial proportion of children were vaccinated with delay. Although vaccine coverage and timeliness are often conceptualized as separate measures, the finding that delayed pentavalent1 receipt was a strong risk factor for not receiving future immunizations indicates the two measures are intertwined.