Re-introducing the Cambridge Group Family Reconstitutions.

English Population History from Family Reconstitution 1580-1837 was important both for its scope and its methodology. The volume was based on data from family reconstitutions of 26 parishes carefully selected to represent 250 years of English demographic history. These data remain relevant for new research questions, such as studying the intergenerational inheritance of fertility and mortality. To expand their availability the family reconstitutions have been translated into new formats: a relational database, the Intermediate Data Structure (IDS) and an episode file for fertility analysis. This paper describes that process and examines the impact of methodological decisions on analysis of the data. Wrigley, Davies, Oeppen, and Schofield were sensitive to changes in the quality of the parish registers and cautiously applied the principles of family reconstitution developed by Louis Henry. We examine how these choices affect the measurement of fertility and biases that are introduced when important principles are ignored.

Understanding Differences in Cancer Survival between Populations: A New Approach and Application to Breast Cancer Survival Differentials between Danish Regions.

Large variations in cancer survival have been recorded between populations, e.g., between countries or between regions in a country. To understand the determinants of cancer survival differentials between populations, researchers have often applied regression analysis. We here propose the use of a non-parametric decomposition method to quantify the exact contribution of specific components to the absolute difference in cancer survival between two populations. Survival differences are here decomposed into the contributions of differences in stage at diagnosis, population age structure, and stage-and-age-specific survival. We demonstrate the method with the example of differences in one-year and five-year breast cancer survival between Denmark's five regions. Differences in stage at diagnosis explained 45% and 27%, respectively, of the one- and five-year survival differences between Zealand and Central Denmark for patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2010. We find that the introduced decomposition method provides a powerful complementary analysis and has several advantages compared with regression models: No structural or distributional assumptions are required; aggregated data can be used; and the use of absolute differences allows quantification of the survival that could be gained by improving, for example, stage at diagnosis relative to a reference population, thus feeding directly into health policy evaluation.

The contribution of urbanization to changes in life expectancy in Scotland, 1861-1910.

During the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, urban populations in Europe and North America continued to be afflicted by very high mortality as rapid urbanization and industrialization processes got underway. Here we measure the effect of population redistribution from (low-mortality) rural to (high-mortality) urban areas on changes in Scottish life expectancy at birth from 1861 to 1910. Using vital registration data for that period, we apply a new decomposition method that decomposes changes in life expectancy into the contributions of two main components: (1) changes in mortality; and (2) compositional changes in the population. We find that, besides an urban penalty (higher mortality in urban areas), an urbanization penalty (negative effect of population redistribution to urban areas on survival) existed in Scotland during the study period. In the absence of the urbanization penalty, Scottish life expectancy at birth could have attained higher values by the beginning of the twentieth century.

Why did Danish women's life expectancy stagnate? The influence of interwar generations' smoking behaviour.

The general health status of a population changes over time, generally in a positive direction. Some generations experience more unfavourable conditions than others. The health of Danish women in the interwar generations is an example of such a phenomenon. The stagnation in their life expectancy between 1977 and 1995 is thought to be related to their smoking behaviour. So far, no study has measured the absolute effect of smoking on the mortality of the interwar generations of Danish women and thus the stagnation in Danish women's life expectancy. We applied a method to estimate age-specific smoking-attributable number of deaths to examine the effect of smoking on the trends in partial life expectancy of Danish women between age 50 and 85 from 1950 to 2012. We compared these trends to those for women in Sweden, where there was no similar stagnation in life expectancy. When smoking-attributable mortality was excluded, the gap in partial life expectancy at age 50 between Swedish and Danish women diminished substantially. The effect was most pronounced in the interwar generations. The major reason for the stagnation in Danish women's partial life expectancy at age 50 was found to be smoking-related mortality in the interwar generations.

What are the effects of maternal and pre-adult environments on ageing in humans, and are there lessons from animal models?

An open issue in research on ageing is the extent to which responses to the environment during development can influence variability in life span in animals, and the health profile of the elderly in human populations. Both affluence and adversity in human societies have profound impacts on survivorship curves, and some of this effect may be traceable to effects in utero or in infancy. The Barker Hypothesis that links caloric restriction in very early life to disruptions of glucose-insulin metabolism in later life has attracted much attention, as well as some controversy, in medical circles. It is only rarely considered by evolutionary biologists working on phenotypic plasticity, or by biogerontologists studying model organisms such as C. elegans or Drosophila. One crucial mechanism by which animals can respond in an adaptive manner to adverse conditions, for example in nutrition or infection, during development is phenotypic plasticity. Here we begin with a discussion of adaptive plasticity in animals before asking what such phenomena may reveal of relevance to rates of ageing in animals, and in humans. We survey the evidence for effects on adult ageing of environmental conditions during development across mammalian and invertebrate model organisms, and ask whether evolutionary conserved mechanisms might be involved. We conclude that the Barker Hypothesis is poorly supported and argue that more work in human populations should be integrated with multi-disciplinary studies of ageing-related phenomena in experimental populations of different model species that are subjected to nutritional challenges or infections during pre-adult development.

Reproduction and longevity among the British peerage: the effect of frailty and health selection.

Whether a cost of reproduction exists among humans is still questionable. A major study of aristocratic British families finds a significant positive correlation between parity and late-life mortality, which indicates a trade-off between reproduction and longevity. This result is supported by four other studies, while earlier studies have not found a relationship or came to the opposite conclusion. We show that in natural fertility populations the relationship between fertility and late-life mortality cannot be studied correctly without considering the effects of differences in health and of mortality selection during childbearing ages because these two effects lead to a dampening of the true relationship. If these effects are controlled in Hollingsworth's genealogy of the British peerage a significant trade-off between reproduction and longevity exists for females but not for males.

New age patterns of survival improvement in Sweden: do they characterize changes in individual aging?

The parameters of the Gompertz approximation to the mortality curve are negatively correlated. Strehler and Mildvan [Science 132 (1960) 14] predicted this property of the mortality curve using a mathematical model of mortality and aging and then confirmed it in empirical studies. Despite the fact that their theory was based on the cohort model of mortality the SM correlation was also revealed in the analysis of period mortality data. In fact, most applications of the SM model to human data use Gompertz's approximation to the period mortality rate. Many researchers studying SM correlation consider it a universal demographic law. Such correlation prescribes a certain regularity in mortality changes. All mortality curves must intersect at one point. Mortality decline must produce the rectangularization of survival curves. In this paper we investigated the changes in the patterns of mortality decline in Sweden between 1861 and 1999. We found a difference in patterns of SM correlation for cohort and period mortality data. We investigated trends in survival improvement and found that the tendency to rectangularization of the survival curve existed for only a limited period of time. Then it was gradually replaced by near parallel shift of the survival curve to the right. We found that the pattern of SM correlation was relatively stable only at certain phases of the survival history of male and female populations. We analyzed past and recent patterns of survival changes and discussed possible causes for instability of SM correlation both in cohort and in period mortality data.