T-cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain 3 is upregulated in rheumatoid arthritis, but insufficient in controlling inflammation.

OBJECTIVES: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune disease, that involves both pro- and anti-inflammatory mechanisms. The purpose of the present study is to investigate T-cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain 3 (Tim-3) in RA. METHODS: Plasma levels of soluble (s) Tim-3 in early RA (n=98), were followed, to evaluate association with treatment and disease activity, acquired from a prospective collected biobank (clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00660647)). We also investigate the influence of Tim-3 on spontaneous cytokine production in synovial fluid mononuclear cells (SFMC) from RA patients after addition of neutralizing anti-Tim-3's antibodies, either alone or in combination with neutralizing anti-Programmed Cell death protein 1 (PD-1) antibodies. RESULTS: Long-time stimulated CD4 T-cells expressed high levels of Tim-3, but tended to decrease their PD-1 expression. Tim-3 expression was exclusively seen co-expressed with PD-1 by CD3, CD4, CD45RO positive cells in the inflamed RA joint. Addition of neutralizing Tim-3 antibodies increased the secretion of IFNγ and MCP-1, in SFMC cultures from RA. Whereas neutralizing anti-PD-1 antibodies showed a broader impact on cytokine production. Finally, we observed that soluble Tim-3 is increased in plasma and is associated with disease activity in early RA. CONCLUSION: Taken together, our findings indicate disease-suppressive functions of Tim-3 in RA.

Prediction and characterization of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma cell-of-origin subtypes using targeted sequencing.

The aim of the present study was to determine cell of origin (COO) from a platform using a DNA-based method, COO DNA classifier (COODC). A targeted exome-sequencing platform that applies the mutational profile of a sample was used to classify COO subtype. Two major mutational signatures associated with COO were identified: Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer (COSMIC) signature 23 enriched in activated B cell (ABC) and COSMIC signature 3, which suggested increased frequency in germinal center B cell (GCB). Differential mutation signatures linked oncogenesis to mutational processes during B-cell activation, confirming the putative origin of GCB and ABC subtypes. Integrating COO with comprehensive genomic profiling enabled identification of features associated with COO and demonstrated the feasibility of determining COO without RNA.

Lay abstract To determine subtypes of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), a cancer with poor survival, we aimed to identify DLBCL subtypes using DNA mutation-based tools. A targeted gene-sequencing platform, which measures the number and types of DNA mutations in a sample, was used to categorize DLBCL subtypes. Two major patterns of mutations associated with subtypes were identified: Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer (COSMIC) signature 23 and COSMIC signature 3. Differences in how the subtypes developed suggest a link between tumor developments and B cells being activated normally, confirming where the DLBCL subtypes came from. Combining this information with comprehensive genomic profiling, which determines all of the genes that a person has, allowed identification of features that are associated with DLBCL subtypes and showed that a DLBCL subtype can be determined without using RNA.

Single-nucleotide Fcγ receptor polymorphisms do not impact obinutuzumab/rituximab outcome in patients with lymphoma.

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been shown to influence Fcγ receptor (FcγR) affinity and activity, but their effect on treatment response is unclear. We assessed their importance in the efficacy of obinutuzumab or rituximab combined with chemotherapy in untreated advanced follicular lymphoma (FL) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) in the GALLIUM (www.clinicaltrials.gov #NCT01332968) and GOYA (#NCT01287741) trials, respectively. Genomic DNA was extracted from patients enrolled in GALLIUM (n = 1202) and GOYA (n = 1418). Key germline SNPs, FCGR2A R131H (rs1801274), FCGR3A F158V (rs396991), and FCGR2B I232T (rs1050501), were genotyped and assessed for their impact on investigator-assessed progression-free survival (PFS). In both cohorts there was no prognostic effect of FCGR2A or FCGR3A. In FL, FCGR2B was associated with favorable PFS in univariate and multivariate analyses comparing I232T with I232I, with a more modest association for rituximab-treated (univariate: hazard ratio [HR], 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-1.14; P = .21) vs obinutuzumab-treated patients (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.34-0.91; P = .02). Comparing T232T with I232I, an association was found for obinutuzumab (univariate: HR, 2.76; 95% CI, 1.02-7.5; P = .0459). Neither observation retained significance after multiple-test adjustment. FCGR2B was associated with poorer PFS in multivariate analyses comparing T232T with I232I in rituximab- but not obinutuzumab-treated patients with DLBCL (HR, 4.40; 95% CI, 1.71-11.32; P = .002; multiple-test-adjusted P = .03); however, this genotype was rare (n = 13). This study shows that FcγR genotype is not associated with response to rituximab/obinutuzumab plus chemotherapy in treatment-naive patients with advanced FL or DLBCL.

Prognostic significance of FCGR2B expression for the response of DLBCL patients to rituximab or obinutuzumab treatment.

Fc γ receptor IIB (FcγRIIB) is an inhibitory molecule capable of reducing antibody immunotherapy efficacy. We hypothesized its expression could confer resistance in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) treated with anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody (mAb) chemoimmunotherapy, with outcomes varying depending on mAb (rituximab [R]/obinutuzumab [G]) because of different mechanisms of action. We evaluated correlates between FCGR2B messenger RNA and/or FcγRIIB protein expression and outcomes in 3 de novo DLBCL discovery cohorts treated with R plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP) reported by Arthur, Schmitz, and Reddy, and R-CHOP/G-CHOP-treated patients in the GOYA trial (NCT01287741). In the discovery cohorts, higher FCGR2B expression was associated with significantly shorter progression-free survival (PFS; Arthur: hazard ratio [HR], 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.19; P = .0360; Schmitz: HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.02-1.26; P = .0243). Similar results were observed in GOYA with R-CHOP (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.00-1.58; P = .0455), but not G-CHOP (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.69-1.20; P = .50). A nonsignificant trend that high FCGR2B expression favored G-CHOP over R-CHOP was observed (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.44-1.02; P = .0622); however, low FCGR2B expression favored R-CHOP (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.00-2.50; P = .0503). In Arthur and GOYA, FCGR2B expression was associated with tumor FcγRIIB expression; correlating with shorter PFS for R-CHOP (HR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.04-4.50; P = .0378), but not G-CHOP (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.66-2.87; P = .3997). This effect was independent of established prognostic biomarkers. High FcγRIIB/FCGR2B expression has prognostic value in R-treated patients with DLBCL and may confer differential responsiveness to R-CHOP/G-CHOP.

End-of-treatment PET/CT predicts PFS and OS in DLBCL after first-line treatment: results from GOYA.

GOYA was a randomized phase 3 study comparing obinutuzumab plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (CHOP) vs standard-of-care rituximab plus CHOP in patients with previously untreated diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). This retrospective analysis of GOYA aimed to assess the association between progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) with positron emission tomography (PET)-based complete response (CR) status. Overall, 1418 patients were randomly assigned to receive 8 21-day cycles of obinutuzumab (n = 706) or rituximab (n = 712) plus 6 or 8 cycles of CHOP. Patients received a mandatory fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose-PET/computed tomography scan at baseline and end of treatment. After a median follow-up of 29 months, the numbers of independent review committee-assessed PFS and OS events in the entire cohort were 416 (29.3%) and 252 (17.8%), respectively. End-of-treatment PET CR was highly prognostic for PFS and OS according to Lugano 2014 criteria (PFS: hazard ratio [HR], 0.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-0.38; P < .0001; OS: HR, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.08-0.17; P < .0001), irrespective of international prognostic index score and cell of origin. In conclusion, the results from this prospectively acquired large cohort corroborated previously published data from smaller sample sizes showing that end-of-treatment PET CR is an independent predictor of PFS and OS and a promising prognostic marker in DLBCL. Long-term survival analysis confirmed the robustness of these data over time. Additional meta-analyses including other prospective studies are necessary to support the substitution of PET CR for PFS as an effective and practical surrogate end point. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01287741.

BCL2 Expression in First-Line Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma Identifies a Patient Population With Poor Prognosis.

INTRODUCTION: The prognostic value of B-cell lymphoma 2 (BCL2) expression in de novo diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) treated with immunochemotherapy is of interest to define a target patient population for clinical development of BCL2 inhibitors. We aimed to develop a reproducible immunohistochemistry algorithm and assay to determine BCL2 protein expression and assess the prognostic value of BCL2 in newly diagnosed DLBCL cohorts. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The prospectively defined algorithm incorporated BCL2 staining intensity and percentage of BCL2-positive cells. Functionally relevant cutoffs were based on the sensitivity of lymphoma cell lines to venetoclax. This assay was highly reproducible across laboratories. The prognostic impact of BCL2 expression was assessed in DLBCL patients from the phase 3 MAIN (n = 230) and GOYA (n = 366) trials, and a population-based registry (n = 310). RESULTS: Approximately 50% of tumors were BCL2 positive, with a higher frequency in high International Prognostic Index (IPI) and activated B-cell-like DLBCL subgroups. BCL2 expression was associated with poorer progression-free survival in the MAIN study (hazard ratio [HR], 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81-3.40; multivariate Cox regression adjusted for IPI and cell of origin). This trend was confirmed in the GOYA and registry cohorts in adjusted multivariate analyses (GOYA: HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.05-2.82; registry: HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.29-2.78). Patients with BCL2 immunohistochemistry-positive and IPI-high disease had the poorest prognosis: 3-year progression-free survival rates were 51% (GOYA) and 37% (registry). CONCLUSION: Findings support use of our BCL2 immunohistochemistry scoring system and assay to select patients with BCL2-positive tumors for future studies.

Prognostic impact of somatic mutations in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and relationship to cell-of-origin: data from the phase III GOYA study.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma represents a biologically and clinically heterogeneous diagnostic category with well-defined cell-of-origin subtypes. Using data from the GOYA study (NCT01287741), we characterized the mutational profile of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and evaluated the prognostic impact of somatic mutations in relation to cell-of-origin. Targeted DNA next-generation sequencing was performed in 499 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue biopsies from previously untreated patients. Prevalence of genetic alterations/mutations was examined. Multivariate Cox regression was used to evaluate the prognostic effect of individual genomic alterations. Of 465 genes analyzed, 59 were identified with mutations occurring in at least 10 of 499 patients (≥2% prevalence); 334 additional genes had mutations occurring in ≥1 patient. Single nucleotide variants were the most common mutation type. On multivariate analysis, BCL2 alterations were most strongly associated with shorter progression-free survival (multivariate hazard ratio: 2.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.6 to 4.2). BCL2 alterations were detected in 102 of 499 patients; 92 had BCL2 translocations, 90% of whom had germinal center B-cell-like diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. BCL2 alterations were also significantly correlated with BCL2 gene and protein expression levels. Validation of published mutational subsets revealed consistent patterns of co-occurrence, but no consistent prognostic differences between subsets. Our data confirm the molecular heterogeneity of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, with potential treatment targets occurring in distinct cell-of-origin subtypes. clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01287741.

Prognostic Impact of Natural Killer Cell Count in Follicular Lymphoma and Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma Patients Treated with Immunochemotherapy.

PURPOSE: Natural killer (NK) cells are key effector cells for anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (mAb), such as obinutuzumab and rituximab. We assessed whether low pretreatment NK-cell count (NKCC) in peripheral blood or tumor tissue was associated with worse outcome in patients receiving antibody-based therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Baseline peripheral blood NKCC was assessed by flow cytometry (CD3-CD56+ and/or CD16+ cells) in 1,064 of 1,202 patients with follicular lymphoma treated with obinutuzumab or rituximab plus chemotherapy in the phase III GALLIUM trial (NCT01332968) and 1,287 of 1,418 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) treated with obinutuzumab or rituximab plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (G-CHOP or R-CHOP) in the phase III GOYA trial (NCT01287741). The prognostic value of tumor NK-cell gene expression, as assessed by whole-transcriptome gene expression using TruSeq RNA sequencing, was also analyzed. The association of baseline variables, such as treatment arm, was evaluated using multivariate Cox regression models using a stepwise approach. RESULTS: In this exploratory analysis, low baseline peripheral blood NKCC was associated with shorter progression-free survival (PFS) in both follicular lymphoma [hazard ratio (HR), 1.48; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-2.14; P = 0.04] and DLBCL (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.01-1.83; P = 0.04), and overall survival in follicular lymphoma (HR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.26-3.86; P = 0.0058). Low tumor NK-cell gene expression was associated with shorter PFS in G-CHOP-treated patients with DLBCL (HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.22-3.15; P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that the number of NK cells in peripheral blood may affect the outcome of patients with B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma receiving anti-CD20-based immunochemotherapy.

PD-L1 and tumor-associated macrophages in de novo DLBCL.

Programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) and its receptor, programmed cell death-1 (PD-1), are important negative regulators of immune cell activation. Therapeutically targeting PD-1/PD-L1 in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients with a single agent has limited activity, meriting a deeper understanding of this complex biology and of available PD-L1 clinical assays. In this study, we leveraged 2 large de novo DLBCL phase 3 trials (GOYA and MAIN) to better understand the biologic and clinical relevance of PD-L1 in de novo DLBCL. PD-L1 was expressed on myeloid cells in 85% to 95% of DLBCL patients (depending on staining procedure), compared with 10% on tumor cells, and correlated with macrophage gene expression. PD-L1 did not identify high-risk patients in de novo DLBCL; it correlated with STAT3, macrophage gene expression, and improved outcomes among a subset of patients. These results may help identify immunologically distinct DLBCL subsets relevant for checkpoint blockade. GOYA and MAIN trials were registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01287741 and #NCT00486759, respectively.

Integration of cell of origin into the clinical CNS International Prognostic Index improves CNS relapse prediction in DLBCL.

Central nervous system (CNS) relapse carries a poor prognosis in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Integrating biomarkers into the CNS-International Prognostic Index (CNS-IPI) risk model may improve identification of patients at high risk for developing secondary CNS disease. CNS relapse was analyzed in 1418 DLBCL patients treated with obinutuzumab or rituximab plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone chemotherapy in the phase 3 GOYA study. Cell of origin (COO) was assessed using gene-expression profiling. BCL2 and MYC protein expression was analyzed by immunohistochemistry. The impact of CNS-IPI, COO, and BCL2/MYC dual-expression status on CNS relapse was assessed using a multivariate Cox regression model (data available in n = 1418, n = 933, and n = 688, respectively). High CNS-IPI score (hazard ratio [HR], 4.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-12.3; P = .02) and activated B-cell‒like (ABC) (HR, 5.2; 95% CI, 2.1-12.9; P = .0004) or unclassified COO subtypes (HR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.5-11.7; P = .006) were independently associated with CNS relapse. BCL2/MYC dual-expression status did not impact CNS relapse risk. Three risk subgroups were identified based on the presence of high CNS-IPI score and/or ABC/unclassified COO (CNS-IPI-C model): low risk (no risk factors, n = 450 [48.2%]), intermediate risk (1 factor, n = 408 [43.7%]), and high risk (both factors, n = 75 [8.0%]). Two-year CNS relapse rates were 0.5%, 4.4%, and 15.2% in the respective risk subgroups. Combining high CNS-IPI and ABC/unclassified COO improved CNS relapse prediction and identified a patient subgroup at high risk for developing CNS relapse. The study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01287741.

Obinutuzumab or Rituximab Plus Cyclophosphamide, Doxorubicin, Vincristine, and Prednisone in Previously Untreated Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma.

Purpose Rituximab (R) plus CHOP (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone) chemotherapy is the standard of care in previously untreated diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Obinutuzumab (G) is a glycoengineered, type II, anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody. GOYA was a randomized phase III study that compared G-CHOP with R-CHOP in patients with previously untreated advanced-stage DLBCL. Methods Patients (N = 1,418) were randomly assigned to receive eight 21-day cycles of G (n = 706) or R (n = 712), plus six or eight cycles of CHOP. Primary end point was investigator-assessed progression-free survival (PFS). Results After median observation of 29 months, the number of investigator-assessed PFS events was similar between G (201; 28.5%) and R (215; 30.2%), stratified hazard ratio was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.76 to 1.11; P = .39), and 3-year PFS rates were 70% and 67%, respectively. Secondary end points of independently reviewed PFS, other time-to-event end points, and tumor response rates were similar between arms. In exploratory subgroup analyses, patients with germinal-center B cell-like subtype had a better PFS than did patients with activated B cell-like subtype, irrespective of treatment. Frequencies of grade 3 to 5 adverse events (AEs; 73.7% v 64.7%, respectively) and serious AEs (42.6% v 37.6%, respectively) were higher with G-CHOP compared with R-CHOP. Fatal AE frequencies were 5.8% for G-CHOP and 4.3% for R-CHOP. The most common AEs were neutropenia (G-CHOP, 48.3%; R-CHOP, 40.7%), infusion-related reactions (G-CHOP, 36.1%; R-CHOP, 23.5%), nausea (G-CHOP, 29.4%; R-CHOP, 28.3%), and constipation (G-CHOP, 23.4%; R-CHOP, 24.5%). Conclusion G-CHOP did not improve PFS compared with R-CHOP in patients with previously untreated DLBCL. AEs reported with G were consistent with the known safety profile. Biomarker analyses may help define a future role for G in DLBCL.

Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Randomized Phase III Trial Evaluating Pertuzumab Combined With Chemotherapy for Low Tumor Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 3 mRNA-Expressing Platinum-Resistant Ovarian Cancer (PENELOPE).

PURPOSE: The AGO-OVAR 2.29/ENGOT-ov14/PENELOPE prospectively randomized phase III trial evaluated the addition of pertuzumab to chemotherapy in patients with platinum-resistant ovarian carcinoma with low tumor human epidermal growth factor receptor 3 (HER3) mRNA expression. We report the results of the primary efficacy analysis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligible patients had ovarian carcinoma that progressed during or within 6 months of completing four or more platinum cycles, centrally tested low tumor HER3 mRNA expression (concentration ratio ≤ 2.81 by quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction on cobas z480 [Roche Molecular Diagnostics, Pleasanton, CA]), and no more than two prior lines of chemotherapy. After investigators' selection of the chemotherapy backbone (single-agent topotecan, weekly paclitaxel, or gemcitabine), patients were randomly assigned to also receive either placebo or pertuzumab (840-mg loading dose followed by 420 mg every 3 weeks). Stratification factors were selected chemotherapy, prior antiangiogenic therapy, and platinum-free interval. The primary end point was independent review committee-assessed progression-free survival (PFS). Additional end points included overall survival, investigator-assessed PFS, objective response rate, safety, patient-reported outcomes, and translational research. RESULTS: Overall, 156 patients were randomly assigned. Adding pertuzumab to chemotherapy did not significantly improve independent review committee-assessed PFS for the primary analysis (stratified hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.50 to 1.11; P = .14; median PFS, 4.3 months for pertuzumab plus chemotherapy v 2.6 months for placebo plus chemotherapy). Sensitivity analyses and secondary efficacy end point results were consistent with the primary analysis. The effect on PFS favoring pertuzumab was more pronounced in the gemcitabine and paclitaxel cohorts. No new safety signals were seen. CONCLUSION: Although the primary objective was not met, subgroup analyses showed trends in PFS favoring pertuzumab in the gemcitabine and paclitaxel cohorts, meriting further exploration of pertuzumab in ovarian cancer.

Creating policy frameworks for public health genomics to benefit developing countries.

Unprecedented advances in life sciences, as exemplified by the revolution in genomics, are yet to translate into effective public health interventions to benefit the health of populations living in the developing world. The developing countries continue to bear the major burden of disease globally, both infectious and chronic diseases, and they could clearly benefit from genomics being harnessed and used to address the greatest public health problems in addition to benefits for the health of individuals. For this to happen, we need to understand what are the major challenges or bottlenecks to be overcome and, informed by these priorities, create an effective, inclusive, equitable and sustainable policy framework within which knowledge translation into improved health outcomes of underprivileged populations can take place.

South African child deaths 1990-2011: have HIV services reversed the trend enough to meet Millennium Development Goal 4?

OBJECTIVE: To analyse trends in under-five mortality rate in South Africa (1990-2011), particularly the contribution of AIDS deaths. METHODS: Three nationally used models for estimating AIDS deaths in children were systematically reviewed. The model outputs were compared with under-five mortality rate estimates for South Africa from two global estimation models. All estimates were compared with available empirical data. RESULTS: Differences between the models resulted in varying point estimates for under-five mortality but the trends were similar, with mortality increasing to a peak around 2005. The three models showing the contribution of AIDS suggest a maximum of 37-39% of child deaths were due to AIDS in 2004-2005 which has since declined. Although the rate of progress from 1990 is not the 4.4% needed to meet Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival, South Africa's average annual rate of under-five mortality decline between 2006 and 2011 was between 6.3 and 10.2%. CONCLUSION: In 2005, South Africa was one of only four countries globally with an under-five mortality rate higher than the 1990 Millennium Development Goal baseline. Over the past 5 years, the country has achieved a rate of child mortality reduction exceeded by only three other countries. This rapid turnaround is likely due to scale-up of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and to a lesser degree, the expanded roll-out of antiretroviral therapy. Emphasis on these programmes must continue, but failure to address other aspects of care including integrated high-quality maternal and neonatal care means that the decline in child mortality could stall.

Born too soon: the global epidemiology of 15 million preterm births.

This second paper in the Born Too Soon supplement presents a review of the epidemiology of preterm birth, and its burden globally, including priorities for action to improve the data. Worldwide an estimated 11.1% of all livebirths in 2010 were born preterm (14.9 million babies born before 37 weeks of gestation), with preterm birth rates increasing in most countries with reliable trend data. Direct complications of preterm birth account for one million deaths each year, and preterm birth is a risk factor in over 50% of all neonatal deaths. In addition, preterm birth can result in a range of long-term complications in survivors, with the frequency and severity of adverse outcomes rising with decreasing gestational age and decreasing quality of care. The economic costs of preterm birth are large in terms of immediate neonatal intensive care, ongoing long-term complex health needs, as well as lost economic productivity. Preterm birth is a syndrome with a variety of causes and underlying factors usually divided into spontaneous and provider-initiated preterm births. Consistent recording of all pregnancy outcomes, including stillbirths, and standard application of preterm definitions is important in all settings to advance both the understanding and the monitoring of trends. Context specific innovative solutions to prevent preterm birth and hence reduce preterm birth rates all around the world are urgently needed. Strengthened data systems are required to adequately track trends in preterm birth rates and program effectiveness. These efforts must be coupled with action now to implement improved antenatal, obstetric and newborn care to increase survival and reduce disability amongst those born too soon.

Child mortality estimation: accelerated progress in reducing global child mortality, 1990-2010.

Monitoring development indicators has become a central interest of international agencies and countries for tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. In this review, which also provides an introduction to a collection of articles, we describe the methodology used by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to track country-specific changes in the key indicator for Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), the decline of the under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age five, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and (5)q(0)). We review how relevant data from civil registration, sample registration, population censuses, and household surveys are compiled and assessed for United Nations member states, and how time series regression models are fitted to all points of acceptable quality to establish the trends in U5MR from which infant and neonatal mortality rates are generally derived. The application of this methodology indicates that, between 1990 and 2010, the global U5MR fell from 88 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births, and the annual number of under-five deaths fell from 12.0 to 7.6 million. Although the annual rate of reduction in the U5MR accelerated from 1.9% for the period 1990-2000 to 2.5% for the period 2000-2010, it remains well below the 4.4% annual rate of reduction required to achieve the MDG 4 goal of a two-thirds reduction in U5MR from its 1990 value by 2015. Thus, despite progress in reducing child mortality worldwide, and an encouraging increase in the pace of decline over the last two decades, MDG 4 will not be met without greatly increasing efforts to reduce child deaths.

National, regional, and worldwide estimates of preterm birth rates in the year 2010 with time trends since 1990 for selected countries: a systematic analysis and implications.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is the second largest direct cause of child deaths in children younger than 5 years. Yet, data regarding preterm birth (<37 completed weeks of gestation) are not routinely collected by UN agencies, and no systematic country estimates nor time trend analyses have been done. We report worldwide, regional, and national estimates of preterm birth rates for 184 countries in 2010 with time trends for selected countries, and provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates. METHODS: We assessed various data sources according to prespecified inclusion criteria. National Registries (563 datapoints, 51 countries), Reproductive Health Surveys (13 datapoints, eight countries), and studies identified through systematic searches and unpublished data (162 datapoints, 40 countries) were included. 55 countries submitted additional data during WHO's country consultation process. For 13 countries with adequate quality and quantity of data, we estimated preterm birth rates using country-level loess regression for 2010. For 171 countries, two regional multilevel statistical models were developed to estimate preterm birth rates for 2010. We estimated time trends from 1990 to 2010 for 65 countries with reliable time trend data and more than 10,000 livebirths per year. We calculated uncertainty ranges for all countries. FINDINGS: In 2010, an estimated 14·9 million babies (uncertainty range 12·3-18·1 million) were born preterm, 11·1% of all livebirths worldwide, ranging from about 5% in several European countries to 18% in some African countries. More than 60% of preterm babies were born in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where 52% of the global livebirths occur. Preterm birth also affects rich countries, for example, USA has high rates and is one of the ten countries with the highest numbers of preterm births. Of the 65 countries with estimated time trends, only three (Croatia, Ecuador, and Estonia), had reduced preterm birth rates 1990-2010. INTERPRETATION: The burden of preterm birth is substantial and is increasing in those regions with reliable data. Improved recording of all pregnancy outcomes and standard application of preterm definitions is important. We recommend the addition of a data-quality indicator of the per cent of all live preterm births that are under 28 weeks' gestation. Distinguishing preterm births that are spontaneous from those that are provider-initiated is important to monitor trends associated with increased caesarean sections. Rapid scale up of basic interventions could accelerate progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival and beyond. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through grants to Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) and Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme; March of Dimes; the Partnership for Maternal Newborn and Childe Health; and WHO, Department of Reproductive Health and Research.