Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria.

Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease's true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning.

A rapid assessment of the implementation of integrated disease surveillance and response system in Northeast Nigeria, 2017.

BACKGROUND: Integrated disease surveillance and response (IDSR) is the strategy adopted for public health surveillance in Nigeria. IDSR has been operational in Nigeria since 2001 but the functionality varies from state to state. The outbreaks of cerebrospinal meningitis and cholera in 2017 indicated weakness in the functionality of the system. A rapid assessment of the IDSR was conducted in three northeastern states to identify and address gaps to strengthen the system. METHOD: The survey was conducted at the state and local government areas using standard IDSR assessment tools which were adapted to the Nigerian context. Checklists were used to extract data from reports and records on resources and tools for implementation of IDSR. Questionnaires were used to interview respondents on their capacities to implement IDSR. Quantitative data were entered into an MS Excel spreadsheet, analysed and presented in proportions. Qualitative data were summarised and reported by thematic area. RESULTS: A total of 34 respondents participated in the rapid survey from six health facilities and six local government areas (LGAs). Of the 2598 health facilities in the three states, only 606 (23%) were involved in reporting IDSR. The standard case definitions were available in all state and LGA offices and health facilities visited. Only 41 (63%) and 31 (47.7%) of the LGAs in the three states had rapid response teams and epidemic preparedness and response committees respectively. The Disease Surveillance and Notification Officers (DSNOs) and clinicians' knowledge were limited to only timeliness and completeness among over 10 core indicators for IDSR. Review of the facility registers revealed many missing variables; the commonly missed variables were patients' age, sex, diagnosis and laboratory results. CONCLUSIONS: The major gaps were poor documentation of patients' data in the facility registers, inadequate reporting tools, limited participation of health facilities in IDSR and limited capacities of personnel to identify, report IDSR priority diseases, analyze and interpret IDSR data for decision making. Training of surveillance focal persons, provision of IDSR reporting tools and effective supportive supervisions will strengthen the system in the country.

Measures to control protracted large Lassa fever outbreak in Nigeria, 1 January to 28 April 2019.

Lassa fever cases have increased in Nigeria since 2016 with the highest number, 633 cases, reported in 2018. From 1 January to 28 April 2019, 554 laboratory-confirmed cases including 124 deaths were reported in 21 states in Nigeria. A public health emergency was declared on 22 January by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. We describe the various outbreak responses that have been implemented, including establishment of emergency thresholds and guidelines for case management.

Progress Towards Measles Elimination in Nigeria: 2012 - 2016.

INTRODUCTION: Nigeria has adopted the African Regional measles elimination targets and is implementing the recommended strategies. Nigeria provides routine measles vaccination for children aged 9 months. In addition, since 2006, Nigeria has been conducting nationwide measles supplemental Immunisation activities (SIAs) or mass vaccination campaigns every 2 years, and has established measles case-based surveillance. METHODS: We reviewed routine and supplemental measles immunization coverage data, as well as measles case-based surveillance data from Nigeria for the years 2012 - 2016, in an attempt to determine the country's progress towards these elimination targets. RESULTS: The first dose measles vaccination coverage in Nigeria ranged from 42% and 54% between 2012 and 2015, according to the WHO UNICEF national coverage estimates. Nigeria achieved 84.5% coverage by survey following the 2015 nationwide measles supplemental immunisation activities (SIAs). During this period, the incidence of confirmed measles ranged from 25 - 300 confirmed cases per million population per year, with the Northern States having significantly higher incidence as compared to the Southern States. At the same time, the pattern of confirmed cases indicated a consistent shift in epidemiological susceptibility including older age children. CONCLUSIONS: In order to accelerate its progress towards the measles elimination targets, Nigeria should build population immunity on a sustainable basis by addressing systemic issues in order to scale up routine immunisation coverage, especially in the Northern half of the country; tailoring the target age for measles SIAs so as to sharply reduce measles incidence in age groups heavily affected by the disease; effectively mobilising resources and improving the quality of planning and coverage outcome of SIAs.

Innovative Technological Approach to Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak Response in Nigeria Using the Open Data Kit and Form Hub Technology.

The recent outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in West Africa has ravaged many lives. Effective containment of this outbreak relies on prompt and effective coordination and communication across various interventions; early detection and response being critical to successful control. The use of information and communications technology (ICT) in active surveillance has proved to be effective but its use in Ebola outbreak response has been limited. Due to the need for timeliness in reporting and communication for early discovery of new EVD cases and promptness in response; it became imperative to empower the response team members with technologies and solutions which would enable smooth and rapid data flow. The Open Data Kit and Form Hub technology were used in combination with the Dashboard technology and ArcGIS mapping for follow up of contacts, identification of cases, case investigation and management and also for strategic planning during the response. A remarkable improvement was recorded in the reporting of daily follow-up of contacts after the deployment of the integrated real time technology. The turnaround time between identification of symptomatic contacts and evacuation to the isolation facility and also for receipt of laboratory results was reduced and informed decisions could be taken by all concerned. Accountability in contact tracing was ensured by the use of a GPS enabled device. The use of innovative technologies in the response of the EVD outbreak in Nigeria contributed significantly to the prompt control of the outbreak and containment of the disease by providing a valuable platform for early warning and guiding early actions.