Improved interpretable machine learning emergency department triage tool addressing class imbalance.

Objective: The Score for Emergency Risk Prediction (SERP) is a novel mortality risk prediction score which leverages machine learning in supporting triage decisions. In its derivation study, SERP-2d, SERP-7d and SERP-30d demonstrated good predictive performance for 2-day, 7-day and 30-day mortality. However, the dataset used had significant class imbalance. This study aimed to determine if addressing class imbalance can improve SERP's performance, ultimately improving triage accuracy. Methods: The Singapore General Hospital (SGH) emergency department (ED) dataset was used, which contains 1,833,908 ED records between 2008 and 2020. Records between 2008 and 2017 were randomly split into a training set (80%) and validation set (20%). The 2019 and 2020 records were used as test sets. To address class imbalance, we used random oversampling and random undersampling in the AutoScore-Imbalance framework to develop SERP+-2d, SERP+-7d, and SERP+-30d scores. The performance of SERP+, SERP, and the commonly used triage risk scores was compared. Results: The developed SERP+ scores had five to six variables. The AUC of SERP+ scores (0.874 to 0.905) was higher than that of the corresponding SERP scores (0.859 to 0.894) on both test sets. This superior performance was statistically significant for SERP+-7d (2019: Z = -5.843, p < 0.001, 2020: Z = -4.548, p < 0.001) and SERP+-30d (2019: Z = -3.063, p = 0.002, 2020: Z = -3.256, p = 0.001). SERP+ outperformed SERP marginally on sensitivity, specificity, balanced accuracy, and positive predictive value measures. Negative predictive value was the same for SERP+ and SERP. Additionally, SERP+ showed better performance compared to the commonly used triage risk scores. Conclusions: Accounting for class imbalance during training improved score performance for SERP+. Better stratification of even a small number of patients can be meaningful in the context of the ED triage. Our findings reiterate the potential of machine learning-based scores like SERP+ in supporting accurate, data-driven triage decisions at the ED.

Increasing neurologically intact survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest among elderly: Singapore Experience.

Objectives: With more elderly presenting with Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrests (OHCAs) globally, neurologically intact survival (NIS) should be the aim of resuscitation. We aimed to study the trend of OHCA amongst elderly in a large Asian registry to identify if age is independently associated with NIS and factors associated with NIS. Methods: All adult OHCAs aged ≥18 years attended by emergency medical services (EMS) from April 2010 to December 2019 in Singapore was extracted from the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study (PAROS) registry. Cases pronounced dead at scene, non-EMS transported, traumatic OHCAs and OHCAs in ambulances were excluded. Patient characteristics and outcomes were compared across four age categories (18-64, 65-79, 80-89, ≥90). Multivariable logistic regression analysis determined the factors associated with NIS. Results: 19,519 eligible cases were analyzed. OHCA incidence increased with age almost doubling in octogenarians (from 312/100,000 in 2011 to 652/100,000 in 2019) and tripling in those ≥90 years (from 458/100,000 in 2011 to 1271/100,000 in 2019). The proportion of patients with NIS improved over time for the 18-64, 65-79- and 80-89-years age groups, with the greatest improvement in the youngest group. NIS decreased with each increasing year of age and minute of response time. NIS increased in the arrests of presumed cardiac etiology, witnessed and bystander CPR. Conclusions: Survival with good outcomes has increased even amongst the elderly. Regardless of age, NIS is possible with good-quality CPR, highlighting its importance. End-of-life planning is a complex yet necessary decision that requires qualitative exploration with elderly, their families and care providers.

Technology activated community first responders in Singapore: Real-world care delivery & outcome trends.

BACKGROUND: Community first responders (CFRs) strengthen the Chain of Survival for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) care. Considerable efforts have been invested in Singapore's CFR program, during the years 2016-2020, by developing an app-based activation system called myResponder. This paper reports on national CFR response indicators to evaluate the real-world impact of these efforts. METHODS: We matched data from the Singapore Civil Defence Force's CFR registry with the Pan Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study (PAROS) registry data to calculate performance indicators. These included the number of CFRs receiving and accepting an issued alert per OHCA event. Also calculated were the fraction of OHCA events where CFRs received an issued alert, or accepted the alert, and arrived at the scene either before or after EMS. We also present trends of these indicators and compare the prevalence of these fractions between the CFR-attended and CFR-unattended OHCA events. RESULTS: Of 6577 alerted OHCA events, 42.7% accepted an alert, 50% of these arrived at the scene and 71% of them arrived before EMS. Almost all CFR response indicators improved over time even for the pandemic year (2020). The fraction of OHCA events where >2 CFRs received an alert increased from 62% to 96%; the same figure for accepting an alert did not change much but >2 CFRs arriving at the scene increased from 0% to 7.5%. The fraction of OHCA events with an automated external defibrillator applied and defibrillation performed by CFR increased from 4.2% to 10.3% and 1.6% to 3%, respectively. Statistically significant differences were observed in these indicators when CFR-attended and CFR-unattended OHCA events were compared. CONCLUSION: This real-world study shows that activating CFRs using mobile technology can improve community response to OHCA and are bearing fruit in Singapore at a national level. Some targets for improvement and future research are highlighted in this report.

Impact of COVID-19 on perceived wellbeing, self-management and views of novel modalities of care among medically vulnerable patients in Singapore.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine the impact of COVID-19 measures on wellbeing and self-management in medically vulnerable non-COVID patients and their views of novel modalities of care in Singapore. METHODS: Patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, chronic kidney disease, diabetes and cancer were recruited from the SingHealth cluster and national cohort of older adults. Data on demographics, chronic conditions and perceived wellbeing were collected using questionnaire. We performed multivariable regression to examine factors associated with perceived wellbeing. Qualitative interviews were conducted to elicit patient's experience and thematically analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 91 patients participated. Male patients compared with female patients perceived a lower impact of the pandemic on subjective wellbeing. Patients with CVD compared to those having conditions other than CVD perceived a lower impact. Impacts of the pandemic were primarily described in relation to emotional distress and interference in maintaining self-care. Hampering of physical activity featured prominently, but most did not seek alternative ways to maintain activity. Despite general willingness to try novel care modalities, lack of physical interaction and communication difficulties were perceived as main barriers. DISCUSSION: Findings underline the need to alleviate emotional distress and develop adaptive strategies to empower patients to maintain wellbeing and self-care.

Impact of COVID-19 on barriers to dispatcher-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation in adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrests in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: Fewer out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients received bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation during the COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore. We investigated the impact of COVID-19 on barriers to dispatcher-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation (DA-CPR). METHODS: We reviewed audio recordings of all calls to our national ambulance service call centre during the pandemic (January-June 2020) and pre-pandemic (January-June 2019) periods. Our primary outcome was the presence of barriers to DA-CPR. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the effect of COVID-19 on the likelihood of barriers to and performance of DA-CPR, adjusting for patient and event characteristics. RESULTS: There were 1241 and 1118 OHCA who were eligible for DA-CPR during the pandemic (median age 74 years, 61.6 % males) and pre-pandemic (median age 73 years, 61.1 % males) periods, respectively. Compared to pre-pandemic, there were more residential and witnessed OHCA during the pandemic (87 % vs 84.9 % and 54 % vs 38.1 %, respectively); rates of DA-CPR were unchanged (57.3 % vs 61.1 %). COVID-19 increased the likelihood of barriers to DA-CPR (aOR 1.47, 95 % CI: 1.25-1.74) but not performance of DA-CPR (aOR 0.86, 95 % CI: 0.73 - 1.02). Barriers such as 'patient status changed' and 'caller not with patient' increased during COVID-19 pandemic. 'Afraid to do CPR' markedly decreased during the pandemic; fear of COVID-19 transmission made up 0.5 % of the barriers. CONCLUSION: Barriers to DA-CPR were encountered more frequently during the COVID-19 pandemic but did not affect callers' willingness to perform DA-CPR. Distancing measures led to more residential arrests with increases in certain barriers, highlighting opportunities for public education and intervention.

Multifactorial influences underpinning a decision on COVID-19 vaccination among healthcare workers: a qualitative analysis.

COVID-19 vaccination in healthcare workers (HCW) is essential for improved patient safety and resilience of health systems. Despite growing body of literature on the perceptions of COVID vaccines in HCWs, existing studies tend to focus on reasons for 'refusing' the vaccines, using surveys almost exclusively. To gain a more nuanced understanding, we explored multifactorial influences underpinning a decision on vaccination and suggestions for decision support to improve vaccine uptake among HCWs in the early phase of vaccination rollout. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with thirty-three HCWs in Singapore. Transcribed data was thematically analyzed. Decisions to accept vaccines were underpinned by a desire to protect patients primarily driven by a sense of professional integrity, collective responsibility to protect others, confidence in health authorities and a desire to return to a pre-pandemic way of life. However, there were prevailing concerns with respect to the vaccines, including long-term benefits, safety and efficacy, that hampered a decision. Inadequate information and social media representation of vaccination appeared to add to negative beliefs, impeding a decision to accept while low perceived susceptibility played a moderate role in the decision to delay or decline vaccination. Participants made valuable suggestions to bolster vaccination. Our findings support an approach to improving vaccine uptake in HCWs that features routine tracking and transparent updates on vaccination status, use of institutional platforms for sharing of experience, assuring contingency management plans and tailored communications to emphasize the duty of care and positive outlook associated with vaccination.

Survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, Viet Nam: multicentre prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate factors associated with survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Viet Nam. METHODS: We did a multicentre prospective observational study of people (> 18 years) presenting with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (not caused by trauma) to three tertiary hospitals in Viet Nam from February 2014 to December 2018. We collected data on characteristics, management and outcomes of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and compared these data by type of transportation to hospital and survival to hospital admission. We assessed factors associated with survival to admission to and discharge from hospital using logistic regression analysis. FINDINGS: Of 590 eligible people with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, 440 (74.6%) were male and the mean age was 56.1 years (standard deviation: 17.2). Only 24.2% (143/590) of these people survived to hospital admission and 14.1% (83/590) survived to hospital discharge. Most cardiac arrests (67.8%; 400/590) occurred at home, 79.4% (444/559) were witnessed by bystanders and 22.3% (124/555) were given cardiopulmonary resuscitation by a bystander. Only 8.6% (51/590) of the people were taken to hospital by the emergency medical services and 32.2% (49/152) received pre-hospital defibrillation. Pre-hospital defibrillation (odds ratio, OR: 3.90; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.54-9.90) and return of spontaneous circulation in the emergency department (OR: 2.89; 95% CI: 1.03-8.12) were associated with survival to hospital admission. Hypothermia therapy during post-resuscitation care was associated with survival to discharge (OR: 5.44; 95% CI: 2.33-12.74). CONCLUSION: Improvements are needed in the emergency medical services in Viet Nam such as increasing bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and public access defibrillation, and improving ambulance and post-resuscitation care.

An essential review of Singapore's response to out-of-hospital cardiac arrests: improvements over a ten-year period.

Care for patients who experience out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has rapidly evolved in the past decade. Increased sophistication of care in the community, emergency medical services (EMS) and hospital setting is associated with improved patient-centred outcomes. Notably, Utstein survival doubled from 11.6% to 23.1% between 2011 and 2016. These achievements involved collaboration between policymakers, clinicians and researchers, and were made possible by a strategic interplay of policy, research and implementation. We review the development and current state of OHCA in Singapore using primary population-based data from the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study and an unstructured search of research databases. We discuss the roles of important milestones in policy, community, dispatch, EMS and hospital interventions. Finally, we relate these interventions to relevant processes and outcomes, such as the relationship between the strategic implementation of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and placement of automated external defibrillator with return of spontaneous circulation, survival to discharge and survival with favourable neurological outcomes.

Nation-Wide Observational Study of Cardiac Arrests Occurring in Nursing Homes and Nursing Facilities in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Nursing home (NH) residents with out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) have unique resuscitation priorities. This study aimed to describe OHCA characteristics in NH residents and identify independent predictors of survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: OHCA cases between 2010-16 in the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study were retrospectively analysed. Patients aged <18 years old and non-emergency cases were excluded. Primary outcome was survival at discharge or 30 days. Good neurological outcome was defined as a cerebral performance score between 1-2. RESULTS: A total of 12,112 cases were included. Of these, 449 (3.7%) were NH residents who were older (median age 79 years, range 69-87 years) and more likely to have a history of stroke, heart and respiratory diseases. Fewer NH OHCA had presumed cardiac aetiology (62% vs 70%, P <0.01) and initial shockable rhythm (8.9% vs 18%, P <0.01), but had higher incidence of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (74% vs 43%, P <0.01) and defibrillator use (8.5% vs 2.8%, P <0.01). Non-NH (2.8%) residents had better neurological outcomes than NH (0.9%) residents (P <0.05). Factors associated with survival for cardiac aetiology included age <65 years old, witnessed arrest, bystander defibrillator use and initial shockable rhythm; for non-cardiac aetiology, these included witnessed arrest (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.8, P <0.001) and initial shockable rhythm (AOR 5.7, P <0.001). CONCLUSION: Neurological outcomes were poorer in NH survivors of OHCA. These findings should inform health policies on termination of resuscitation, advance care directives and do-not-resuscitate orders in this population.

Mortality and Neurological Outcomes in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Patients With and Without Targeted Temperature Management in a Multiethnic Asian Population.

INTRODUCTION: The use of targeted temperature management (TTM) is increasing although adoption is still variable. We describe our 6-year experience and compare the mortality and neurological outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients with and without the use of TTM in a multiethnic Asian population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective observational study at a tertiary academic medical centre. OHCA survivors admitted to our hospital between April 2010‒December 2016 were included. Outcomes of interest were 30-day mortality postresuscitation, Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) and Overall Performance Category (OPC) scores. RESULTS: A total of 121 of 261 patients (46.3%) underwent TTM. TTM patients were younger (TTM 60.0 years old vs no TTM 63.7 years old, P = 0.047). There was no difference in the initial arrest rhythm of shockable origin between the 2 groups (P = 0.289). There was suggestion of lower 30-day mortality (TTM 24.3% vs no TTM 31.4%, P = 0.214), higher and good CPC/OPC scores (TTM 19.0% vs no TTM 15.7%, P = 0.514) with TTM although this did not reach statistical significance. On multivariable logistic regression analysis, TTM was not associated with 30-day mortality (P = 0.07). However, older age, initial non-shockable rhythm and increased duration from arrest to return of spontaneous circulation were associated with increased mortality. Malay ethnicity was associated with a poorer CPC/ OPC score. CONCLUSION: Adoption and outcomes of TTM postresuscitation is variable and there is still a need to optimise management of the identified predictors of survival and good neurological outcomes while TTM is being used.

Impact of Air Pollution and Trans-Boundary Haze on Nation-Wide Emergency Department Visits and Hospital Admissions in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Air pollution is associated with adverse health outcomes. However, its impact on emergency health services is less well understood. We investigated the impact of air pollution on nation-wide emergency department (ED) visits and hospital admissions to public hospitals in Singapore. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Anonymised administrative and clinical data of all ED visits to public hospitals in Singapore from January 2010 to December 2015 were retrieved and analysed. Primary and secondary outcomes were defined as ED visits and hospital admissions, respectively. Conditional Poisson regression was used to model the effect of Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) on each outcome. Both outcomes were stratified according to subgroups defined a priori based on age, diagnosis, gender, patient acuity and time of day. RESULTS: There were 5,791,945 ED visits, of which 1,552,187 resulted in hospital admissions. No significant association between PSI and total ED visits (Relative risk [RR], 1.002; 99.2% confidence interval [CI], 0.995-1.008; P = 0.509) or hospital admissions (RR, 1.005; 99.2% CI, 0.996-1.014; P = 0.112) was found. However, for every 30-unit increase in PSI, significant increases in ED visits (RR, 1.023; 99.2% CI, 1.011-1.036; P = 1.24 × 10-6 ) and hospital admissions (RR, 1.027; 99.2% CI, 1.010-1.043; P = 2.02 × 10-5 ) for respiratory conditions were found. CONCLUSION: Increased PSI was not associated with increase in total ED visits and hospital admissions, but was associated with increased ED visits and hospital admissions for respiratory conditions in Singapore.

Elderly Asian Patients Have Lower Revascularisation Rates and Poorer Outcomes for ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Compared to Younger Patients.

INTRODUCTION: There is limited information on elderly patients presenting with ST- elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). This study aimed to study the outcomes of elderly Asian patients with STEMI compared to younger patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study utilised data from 2007 to 2012 from the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry, a mandatory national population-based registry. Elderly patients were defined as ≥80 years of age, middle-aged to old (MAO) patients were defined as 45-80 years of age and young patients were defined as ≤45 years of age. The primary outcome of the study was 1-year mortality and secondary outcomes included in-hospital complications and mortality. RESULTS: There were 12,409 STEMI patients with 1207 (9.7%) elderly patients, 10,093 (81.3%) MAO patients and 1109 (8.9%) young patients. Elderly patients had more cardiovascular risk factors and lower rates of total percutaneous coronary intervention (26.0% vs 72.4% vs 85.5%, respectively; P <0.0001) compared to MAO and young patients. They had higher 1-year mortality (60.6% vs 18.3% vs 4.1%, respectively; P <0.0001) when compared to MAO and young patients. CONCLUSION: Elderly patients with STEMI have poorer outcomes than MAO and young patients. This is potentially attributable to a myriad of factors including age, higher burden of comorbidities and a lesser likelihood of receiving revascularisation and guideline-recommended medical therapy.

Impact of age on survival of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest transported to tertiary emergency medical institutions in Osaka, Japan.

AIM: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) characteristics of patients stratified by age who had resuscitation attempted and were transported to tertiary emergency medical institutions in Osaka Prefecture, Japan; especially those of advanced age. METHODS: A prospective, population-based, observational review was carried out of consecutive OHCA patients with emergency responder resuscitation attempts from July 2012 to December 2016 in Osaka, Japan. Patients were classified into four groups: (i) 18-64 years; (ii) 65-74 years; (iii) 75-84 years; and (iv) ≥85 years. Patient, event and treatment characteristics were examined for patients with presumed cardiac etiology of OHCA. The primary outcome was the 1-month survival with a neurologically favorable outcome. RESULTS: A total of 4636 patients with OHCA of presumed cardiac origin were transported to tertiary emergency medical institutions. The number of patients in the four groups was as follows: (i) 1290 (27.8%); (ii) 1102 (23.8%); (iii) 1420 (30.6%); and (iv) 824 (17.8%). The 1-month survival with a neurologically favorable outcome was: (i) 207 (16.0%); (ii) 96 (8.7%); (iii) 60 (4.2%); and (iv) seven (0.85%). In a multivariate analysis for 1-month survival with a neurologically favorable outcome, increased age was a significant prognostic factor (≥85 years; adjusted odds ratio 0.08, 95% confidence interval 0.03-0.23) for poor outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In this population, advanced age (≥85 years) was strongly associated with poor outcomes. Further discussion of policies directed at resuscitation of very elderly OHCA patients is required, considering limited medical resources and the rapidly aging population in Japan. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 1088-1095.

Risk factors and reasons for cancellation within 24 h of scheduled elective surgery in an academic medical centre: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Operating Theatre (OT) is the largest cost centre as well as the main revenue generator in most hospitals. One of the common problems affecting optimal OT utilization is the cancellation of scheduled surgeries. The goal of this study was to identify factors associated with cancellation within 24 h of scheduled surgeries in a tertiary hospital. METHODS: All elective surgeries performed on adults 18 years and above between June 2015 and December 2016 were included. Cancellations ≤24 h from the scheduled start time of the surgery were recorded, with their reasons for cancellation. Data relating to the patient, surgeon and planned surgery were obtained from the hospital operational database. Univariate analysis and multivariable analysis were conducted using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 4060 scheduled surgeries were included, of which 398 (9.8%) were cancelled within 24 h of surgery. On multivariate analysis, cancellation within 24 h of surgery was associated with history of heart failure (Adjusted odds ratio, AOR1.65; 95%CI 1.08-2.50), advanced chronic kidney disease (AOR2.33; 95%CI 1.58-3.39), or a history of hip fracture (AOR2.29; 95%CI 1.33-3.80), low socio-economic status (on Medifund financing, AOR3.16; 95%CI 1.37-6.72), history of ≥4 cancelled surgeries in the past 3 years (AOR2.38; 95%CI 1.30-4.19), and scheduled time in the afternoon (AOR1.83; 95%CI 1.44-2.32) and evening (AOR2.09; 95%CI0.73-5.13), compared to the morning. Attendance at preoperative anaesthesia assessment clinic was associated with reduced likelihood of cancellation (AOR0.55; 95%CI0.43-0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Several patient and system factors can be used to identify scheduled surgeries that are at high likelihood of cancellation within 24 h of surgery, which may inform strategies to improve the efficiency of OT utilization, including having a dedicated preoperative anaesthesia assessment clinic.

Ethnic Differences and Trends in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Incidence and Mortality in a Multi-Ethnic Population.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to compare the incidence and mortality of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) across the 3 main ethnic groups in Singapore, determine if there is any improvement in trends over the years and postulate the reasons underlying the ethnic disparity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study consisted of 16,983 consecutive STEMI patients who sought treatment from all public hospitals in Singapore from 2007 to 2014. RESULTS: Compared to the Chinese (58 per 100,000 population in 2014), higher STEMI incidence rate was consistently observed in the Malays (114 per 100,000 population) and Indians (126 per 100,000 population). While the incidence rate for the Chinese and Indians remained relatively stable over the years, the incidence rate for the Malays rose slightly. Relative to the Indians (30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality at 9% and 13%, respectively, in 2014), higher 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality rates were observed in the Chinese (15% and 21%) and Malays (13% and 18%). Besides the Malays having higher adjusted 1-year all-cause mortality, all other ethnic disparities in 30-day and 1-year mortality risk were attenuated after adjusting for demographics, comorbidities and primary percutaneous coronary intervention. CONCLUSION: It is important to continuously evaluate the effectiveness of existing programmes and practices as the aetiology of STEMI evolves with time, and to strike a balance between prevention and management efforts as well as between improving the outcome of "poorer" and "better" STEMI survivors with finite resources.

Outcomes of Patients Presenting with Primary or Secondary Atrial Fibrillation with Rapid Ventricular Rate to the Emergency Department.

INTRODUCTION: Atrial fibrillation (AF) with rapid ventricular rate (RVR) is a common diagnosis in the Emergency Department (ED) requiring evaluation and treatment. We present the characteristics and outcomes of patients presenting with primary or secondary AF in a tertiary hospital ED. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included consecutive patients ≥21 years old, with a primary or secondary diagnosis of AF with RVR in the ED over a 1-year period from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2016. Primary AF is defined as AF with no precipitating cause and secondary AF as AF secondary to a precipitating cause. RESULTS: A total of 464 patients presented to the ED from 1 January to 31 December 2016 with primary and secondary diagnosis of AF with RVR; 44.8% had primary diagnosis of AF whereas 55.2% had secondary AF. Overall admission rate from ED was high at 91.8% (primary 84.6% vs secondary 97.7%). Patients with primary AF were younger (68 vs 74 years, P <0.001), had lower rates of cardiovascular risk factors, and shorter length of stay (median 4 vs 5 days). Within 30 days of discharge, they had lower ED reattendance (16.3% vs 25.8%, P <0.001) and lower readmission (16.3% vs 25.8%, P <0.001). There was no mortality in the primary AF group (0% vs 9.8%, P <0.001). CONCLUSION: Currently, majority of patients with AF with RVR are admitted from the ED. Other study suggests patients with uncomplicated primary AF have lower adverse outcomes and some could potentially be treated as outpatients.

COSCA (Core Outcome Set for Cardiac Arrest) in Adults: An Advisory Statement From the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation.

Cardiac arrest effectiveness trials have traditionally reported outcomes that focus on survival. A lack of consistency in outcome reporting between trials limits the opportunities to pool results for meta-analysis. The COSCA initiative (Core Outcome Set for Cardiac Arrest), a partnership between patients, their partners, clinicians, research scientists, and the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation, sought to develop a consensus core outcome set for cardiac arrest for effectiveness trials. Core outcome sets are primarily intended for large, randomized clinical effectiveness trials (sometimes referred to as pragmatic trials or phase III/IV trials) rather than for pilot or efficacy studies. A systematic review of the literature combined with qualitative interviews among cardiac arrest survivors was used to generate a list of potential outcome domains. This list was prioritized through a Delphi process, which involved clinicians, patients, and their relatives/partners. An international advisory panel narrowed these down to 3 core domains by debate that led to consensus. The writing group refined recommendations for when these outcomes should be measured and further characterized relevant measurement tools. Consensus emerged that a core outcome set for reporting on effectiveness studies of cardiac arrest (COSCA) in adults should include survival, neurological function, and health-related quality of life. This should be reported as survival status and modified Rankin scale score at hospital discharge, at 30 days, or both. Health-related quality of life should be measured with ≥1 tools from Health Utilities Index version 3, Short-Form 36-Item Health Survey, and EuroQol 5D-5L at 90 days and at periodic intervals up to 1 year after cardiac arrest, if resources allow.

Effect of known history of heart disease on survival outcomes after out-of-hospital cardiac arrests.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the effect of known heart disease on post-out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) survival outcomes, and its association with factors influencing survival. METHODS: This was an observational, retrospective study involving an OHCA database from seven Asian countries in 2009-2012. Heart disease was defined as a documented diagnosis of coronary artery disease or congenital heart disease. Patients with non-traumatic arrests for whom resuscitation was attempted and with known medical histories were included. Differences in demographics, arrest characteristics and survival between patients with and without known heart disease were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify factors influencing survival to discharge. RESULTS: Of 19 044 eligible patients, 5687 had known heart disease. They were older (77 vs 72 years) and had more comorbidities like diabetes (40.9 vs 21.8%), hypertension (60.6 vs 36.0%) and previous stroke (15.2 vs 10.1%). However, they were not more likely to receive bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (P = 0.205) or automated external defibrillation (P = 0.980). On univariate analysis, known heart disease was associated with increased survival (unadjusted odds ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.30). However, on multivariate analysis, heart disease predicted poorer survival (adjusted odds ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.58-1.00). Other factors influencing survival corresponded with previous reports. CONCLUSIONS: Known heart disease independently predicted poorer post-OHCA survival. This study may provide information to guide future prospective studies specifically looking at family education for patients with heart disease and the effect on OHCA outcomes.

Emergency department crowding in Singapore: Insights from a systems thinking approach.

OBJECTIVES: Emergency Department crowding is a serious and international health care problem that seems to be resistant to most well intended but often reductionist policy approaches. In this study, we examine Emergency Department crowding in Singapore from a systems thinking perspective using causal loop diagramming to visualize the systemic structure underlying this complex phenomenon. Furthermore, we evaluate the relative impact of three different policies in reducing Emergency Department crowding in Singapore: introduction of geriatric emergency medicine, expansion of emergency medicine training, and implementation of enhanced primary care. METHODS: The construction of the qualitative causal loop diagram is based on consultations with Emergency Department experts, direct observation, and a thorough literature review. For the purpose of policy analysis, a novel approach, the path analysis, is applied. RESULTS: The path analysis revealed that both the introduction of geriatric emergency medicine and the expansion of emergency medicine training may be associated with undesirable consequences contributing to Emergency Department crowding. In contrast, enhancing primary care was found to be germane in reducing Emergency Department crowding; in addition, it has apparently no negative side effects, considering the boundary of the model created. CONCLUSION: Causal loop diagramming was a powerful tool for eliciting the systemic structure of Emergency Department crowding in Singapore. Additionally, the developed model was valuable in testing different policy options.