Pan-African evolution of within- and between-country COVID-19 dynamics.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We created a strategy that helps predict the country-level case occurrences based on cases within or external to a country throughout the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history. We observed the effect of the Human Development Index, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature, and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission. One-week forecasts of case numbers from the model were driven by the quality of the reported data. Seeking equitable behavioral and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression, should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.

Tracking and predicting the African COVID-19 pandemic.

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We use a model that explains the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic over time in the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history. We observed the effect of the human development index, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission. One week forecasts of case numbers from the model were driven by the quality of the reported data. Seeking equitable behavioral and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression, should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.

Patients with nodding syndrome in Uganda improve with symptomatic treatment: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: Nodding syndrome (NS) is a poorly understood neurological disorder affecting thousands of children in Africa. In March 2012, we introduced a treatment intervention that aimed to provide symptomatic relief. This intervention included sodium valproate for seizures, management of behaviour and emotional difficulties, nutritional therapy and physical rehabilitation. We assessed the clinical and functional outcomes of this intervention after 12 months of implementation. DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional study of a cohort of patients with NS receiving the specified intervention. We abstracted preintervention features from records and compared these with the current clinical status. We performed similar assessments on a cohort of patients with other convulsive epilepsies (OCE) and compared the outcomes of the two groups. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were patients with WHO-defined NS and patients with OCE attending the same centres. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with seizure freedom (≥1 month without seizures). Secondary outcome measures included a reduction in seizure frequency, resolution of behaviour and emotional difficulties, and independence in basic self-care. RESULTS: Patients with NS had had a longer duration of symptoms (median 5 (IQR 3, 6) years) compared with those with OCE (4 (IQR 2, 6) years), p<0.001. The intervention resulted in marked improvements in both groups; compared to the preintervention state, 121/484 (25%) patients with NS achieved seizure freedom and there was a >70% reduction in seizure frequency; behaviour and emotional difficulties resolved in 194/327 (59%) patients; 193/484 (40%) patients had enrolled in school including 17.7% who had earlier withdrawn due to severe seizures, and over 80% had achieved independence in basic self-care. These improvements were, however, less than that in patients with OCE of whom 243/476 (51.1%) patients were seizure free and in whom the seizure frequency had reduced by 86%. CONCLUSIONS: Ugandan children with NS show substantial clinical and functional improvements with symptomatic treatments suggesting that NS is probably a reversible encephalopathy.