Comprehensive phylogeny of Pieridae butterflies reveals strong correlation between diversification and temperature.

Temperature is thought to be a key factor influencing global species richness patterns. We investigate the link between temperature and diversification in the butterfly family Pieridae by combining next generation DNA sequences and published molecular data with fine-grained distribution data. We sampled nearly 600 pierid butterfly species to infer the most comprehensive molecular phylogeny of the family and curated a distribution dataset of more than 800,000 occurrences. We found strong evidence that species in environments with more stable daily temperatures or cooler maximum temperatures in the warm seasons have higher speciation rates. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates decreased in tandem with global temperatures through geological time, resulting in a constant net diversification.

A global phylogeny of butterflies reveals their evolutionary history, ancestral hosts and biogeographic origins.

Butterflies are a diverse and charismatic insect group that are thought to have evolved with plants and dispersed throughout the world in response to key geological events. However, these hypotheses have not been extensively tested because a comprehensive phylogenetic framework and datasets for butterfly larval hosts and global distributions are lacking. We sequenced 391 genes from nearly 2,300 butterfly species, sampled from 90 countries and 28 specimen collections, to reconstruct a new phylogenomic tree of butterflies representing 92% of all genera. Our phylogeny has strong support for nearly all nodes and demonstrates that at least 36 butterfly tribes require reclassification. Divergence time analyses imply an origin ~100 million years ago for butterflies and indicate that all but one family were present before the K/Pg extinction event. We aggregated larval host datasets and global distribution records and found that butterflies are likely to have first fed on Fabaceae and originated in what is now the Americas. Soon after the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum, butterflies crossed Beringia and diversified in the Palaeotropics. Our results also reveal that most butterfly species are specialists that feed on only one larval host plant family. However, generalist butterflies that consume two or more plant families usually feed on closely related plants.

Acknowledging uncertainty in evolutionary reconstructions of ecological niches.

Reconstructing ecological niche evolution can provide insight into the biogeography and diversification of evolving lineages. However, comparative phylogenetic methods may infer the history of ecological niche evolution inaccurately because (a) species' niches are often poorly characterized; and (b) phylogenetic comparative methods rely on niche summary statistics rather than full estimates of species' environmental tolerances. Here, we propose a new framework for coding ecological niches and reconstructing their evolution that explicitly acknowledges and incorporates the uncertainty introduced by incomplete niche characterization. Then, we modify existing ancestral state inference methods to leverage full estimates of environmental tolerances. We provide a worked empirical example of our method, investigating ecological niche evolution in the New World orioles (Aves: Passeriformes: Icterus spp.). Temperature and precipitation tolerances were generally broad and conserved among orioles, with niche reduction and specialization limited to a few terminal branches. Tools for performing these reconstructions are available in a new R package called nichevol.

Spatial Phylogenetics of Florida Vascular Plants: The Effects of Calibration and Uncertainty on Diversity Estimates.

Recent availability of biodiversity data resources has enabled an unprecedented ability to estimate phylogenetically based biodiversity metrics over broad scales. Such approaches elucidate ecological and evolutionary processes yielding a biota and help guide conservation efforts. However, the choice of appropriate phylogenetic resources and underlying input data uncertainties may affect interpretation. Here, we address how differences among phylogenetic source trees and levels of phylogenetic uncertainty affect these metrics and test existing hypotheses regarding geographic biodiversity patterns across the diverse vascular plant flora of Florida, US. Ecological niche models for 1,490 Florida species were combined with a "purpose-built" phylogenetic tree (phylogram and chronogram), as well as with trees derived from community resources (Phylomatic and Open Tree of Life). There were only modest differences in phylodiversity metrics given the phylogenetic source tree and taking into account the level of phylogenetic uncertainty; we identify similar areas of conservation interest across Florida regardless of the method used.

Reconstructing Ecological Niche Evolution When Niches Are Incompletely Characterized.

Evolutionary dynamics of abiotic ecological niches across phylogenetic history can shed light on large-scale biogeographic patterns, macroevolutionary rate shifts, and the relative ability of lineages to respond to global change. An unresolved question is how best to represent and reconstruct evolution of these complex traits at coarse spatial scales through time. Studies have approached this question by integrating phylogenetic comparative methods with niche estimates inferred from correlative and other models. However, methods for estimating niches often produce incomplete characterizations, as they are inferred from present-day distributions that may be limited in full expression of the fundamental ecological niche by biotic interactions, dispersal limitations, and the existing set of environmental conditions. Here, we test whether incomplete niche characterizations inherent in most estimates of species' niches bias phylogenetic reconstructions of niche evolution, using simulations of virtual species with known niches. Results establish that incompletely characterized niches inflate estimates of evolutionary change and lead to error in ancestral state reconstructions. Our analyses also provide a potential mechanism to explain the frequent observation that maximum thermal tolerances are more conserved than minimum thermal tolerances: populations and species experience more spatial variation in minimum temperature than in maximum temperature across their distributions and, consequently, may experience stronger diversifying selection for cold tolerance.

Predictable invasion dynamics in North American populations of the Eurasian collared dove Streptopelia decaocto.

Species invasions represent a significant dimension of global change yet the dynamics of invasions remain poorly understood and are considered rather unpredictable. We explored interannual dynamics of the invasion process in the Eurasian collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto) and tested whether the advance of the invasion front of the species in North America relates to centrality (versus peripherality) within its estimated fundamental ecological niche. We used ecological niche modelling approaches to estimate the dimensions of the fundamental ecological niche on the Old World distribution of the species, and then transferred that model to the New World as measures of centrality versus peripherality within the niche for the species. Although our hypothesis was that the invasion front would advance faster over more favourable (i.e. more central) conditions, the reverse was the case: the invasion expanded faster in areas presenting less favourable (i.e. more peripheral) conditions for the species as it advanced across North America. This result offers a first view of a predictive approach to the dynamics of species' invasions, and thereby has relevant implications for the management of invasive species, as such a predictive understanding would allow better anticipation of coming steps and advances in the progress of invasions, important to designing and guiding effective remediation and mitigation efforts.

Automated identification of insect vectors of Chagas disease in Brazil and Mexico: the Virtual Vector Lab.

Identification of arthropods important in disease transmission is a crucial, yet difficult, task that can demand considerable training and experience. An important case in point is that of the 150+ species of Triatominae, vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, causative agent of Chagas disease across the Americas. We present a fully automated system that is able to identify triatomine bugs from Mexico and Brazil with an accuracy consistently above 80%, and with considerable potential for further improvement. The system processes digital photographs from a photo apparatus into landmarks, and uses ratios of measurements among those landmarks, as well as (in a preliminary exploration) two measurements that approximate aspects of coloration, as the basis for classification. This project has thus produced a working prototype that achieves reasonably robust correct identification rates, although many more developments can and will be added, and-more broadly-the project illustrates the value of multidisciplinary collaborations in resolving difficult and complex challenges.