Using donor funding to catalyse investment in malaria prevention in Ghana: an analysis of the potential impact on public and private sector expenditure.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 1.5 billion malaria cases and 7.6 million malaria deaths have been averted globally since 2000; long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have contributed an estimated 68% of this reduction. Insufficient funding at the international and domestic levels poses a significant threat to future progress and there is growing emphasis on the need for enhanced domestic resource mobilization. The Private Sector Malaria Prevention (PSMP) project was a 3-year intervention to catalyse private sector investment in malaria prevention in Ghana. METHODS: To assess value for money of the intervention, non-donor expenditure in the 5 years post-project catalysed by the initial donor investment was predicted. Non-donor expenditure catalysed by this investment included: workplace partner costs of malaria prevention activities; household costs in purchasing LLINs from retail outlets; domestic resource mobilization (public sector financing and private investors). Annual ratios of projected non-donor expenditure to annualized donor costs were calculated for the 5 years post-project. Alternative scenarios were constructed to explore uncertainty around future consequences of the intervention. RESULTS: The total donor financial cost of the 3-year PSMP project was USD 4,418,996. The average annual economic donor cost per LLIN distributed through retail sector and workplace partners was USD 21.17 and USD 7.55, respectively. Taking a 5-year post-project time horizon, the annualized donor investment costs were USD 735,805. In the best-case scenario, each USD of annualized donor investment led to USD 4.82 in annual projected non-donor expenditure by the fifth-year post-project. With increasingly conservative assumptions around the project consequences, this ratio decreased to 3.58, 2.16, 1.07 and 0.93 in the "very good", "good", "poor" and "worst" case scenarios, respectively. This suggests that in all but the worst-case scenario, donor investment would be exceeded by the non-donor expenditure it catalysed. CONCLUSIONS: The unit cost per net delivered was high, reflecting considerable initial investment costs and relatively low volumes of LLINs sold during the short duration of the project. However, taking a longer time horizon and broader perspective on the consequences of this complex catalytic intervention suggests that considerable domestic resources for malaria control could be mobilized, exceeding the value of the initial donor investment.

Understanding the risk perception of visceral leishmaniasis exposure and the acceptability of sandfly protection measures among migrant workers in the lowlands of Northwest Ethiopia: a health belief model perspective.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the leading cause of health concerns among Ethiopian migrant workers. Understanding risk perception and health-protective behavior are significant challenges in the prevention and eradication of the disease. As a result, studies are required to assess these important epidemiological factors, which will provide guidance on how to assist migrant workers in taking preventive measures against VL. METHOD: We conducted qualitative research among migrant workers on seasonal agricultural farms in Northwest Ethiopia between June and November 2019 to assess their perception of the risk of contracting VL and their willingness to use protective measures against the disease. Seventeen focus group discussions and 16 key informant interviews were conducted to study migrant workers' risk perception in relation to sandfly bite exposure and use of sandfly control measures. For analysis, all interviews were recorded, transcribed, and translated. ATLASti was used to perform qualitative content analysis on the data. RESULT: Migrant workers are fearful of VL because of previous exposure and the disease's prevalence in the area. They believe, however, that VL is a minor illness that is easily treated. While Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) are widely accepted as a protective measure, there are still reservations about using them due to the seasonality of the transmission, difficulties in hanging them on farm areas, and a preference for alternative traditional practices. Regardless of perceived self-efficacy, the central cues were the message delivered by the health workers and an increase in sandfly bite irritation. Based on the findings, three levels of intervention modalities are suggested: 1) increasing pre-arrival awareness through outdoor media (posters, stickers, billboards), 2) encouraging proper use of protective measures upon arrival at farm camps, and 3) informing departing workers on disease recognition and best practices for health-seeking continuous use of protective measures at home. CONCLUSION: This finding suggests that VL prevention interventions should focus on individuals' perceptions in order to promote consistent use of protective measures. The findings are highly useful in planning effective interventions against VL.

Cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine versus single screening and treatment for the control of malaria in pregnancy in Papua, Indonesia: a provider perspective analysis from a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Malaria infection during pregnancy is associated with serious adverse maternal and birth outcomes. A randomised controlled trial in Papua, Indonesia, comparing the efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine with the current strategy of single screening and treatment showed that intermittent preventive treatment is a promising alternative treatment for the reduction of malaria in pregnancy. We aimed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine compared with single screening and treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine. METHODS: We did a provider perspective analysis. A decision tree model was analysed from a health provider perspective over a lifetime horizon. Model parameters were used in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Simulations were run in hypothetical cohorts of 1000 women who received intermittent preventive treatment or single screening and treatment. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for fetal loss or neonatal death, low birthweight, moderate or severe maternal anaemia, and clinical malaria were calculated from trial data and cost estimates in 2016 US dollars from observational studies, health facility costings and public procurement databases. The main outcome measure was the incremental cost per DALY averted. FINDINGS: Relative to single screening and treatment, intermittent preventive treatment resulted in an incremental cost of US$5657 (95% CI 1827 to 9448) and 107·4 incremental DALYs averted (-719·7 to 904·1) per 1000 women; the average incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $53 per DALY averted. INTERPRETATION: Intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine offers a cost-effective alternative to single screening and treatment for the prevention of the adverse effects of malaria infection in pregnancy in the context of the moderate malaria transmission setting of Papua. The higher cost of intermittent preventive treatment was driven by monthly administration, as compared with single-administration single screening and treatment. However, acceptability and feasibility considerations will also be needed to inform decision making. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Department for International Development, and Wellcome Trust.

Impact of Education on Knowledge and Practice of Kala Azar Preventive Measures among Seasonal and Migrant Agricultural Workers in Northwest Ethiopia.

Kala azar occurs among seasonal and migrant agricultural workers in northwest Ethiopia and accounts for almost 60% of the disease burden in the country. We conducted a quantitative study on the level of knowledge and practice of this vulnerable group in relation to kala azar transmission and acceptability of its vector control tools. A total of 403 workers were randomly selected from eight farms using a purposive sampling technique. Knowledge and practice scores were calculated based on 12 and 9 core questions, respectively. Binary logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with knowledge and practice. A large gap in knowledge of the disease and the vector was evident with 61.8%, 24.6%, and 13.6% of the workers having poor, moderate, and good levels of knowledge scores, respectively. Similarly, 95% of the seasonal workers reported poor level of use of protective measures against the bite of the sand fly vector. Good level of knowledge about kala azar and its sand fly vector was statistically associated with formal education (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.11; 95% CI = 1.17, 3.80; P < 0.05) and previous exposure to health education (AOR = 4.72; 95% CI = 1.99, 11.16; P < 0.001). Despite poor current knowledge and practice, a large proportion of the study participants showed interest in using vector control tools if made available, with 78% of the seasonal and migrant workers expressing some willingness to pay for different measures that can protect against sand fly bites. Therefore, we strongly recommend that comprehensive health education and vector control programs should be provided to these workers.

Comparing time and motion methods to study personnel time in the context of a family planning supply chain intervention in Senegal.

BACKGROUND: A family planning (FP) supply chain intervention was introduced in Senegal in 2012 to reduce contraceptive stock-outs. Labour is the highest cost in low- and middle-income country supply chains. In this paper, we (1) understand time use of personnel working in the FP supply chain at health facilities in Senegal, (2) estimate the validity of self-administered timesheets (STs) relative to continuous observations (COs), and (3) describe the cost of data collection for each method. METHODS: We collected time use data for seven stockroom managers in six facilities using both ST and CO. Activities were categorized as follows: stock management associated with FP, non-FP stock management, other productive activities, non-productive activities, and waiting time. Paired t tests were used to compare the mean differences between the two methods in all categories and in productive time alone. RESULTS: Among all activities, the absolute and relative time spent on productive activities was higher when estimated by ST compared to CO. Conversely, waiting time was underestimated by STs. There was no difference in the relative time spent on non-productive activities. When comparing the distribution of the three productive activity categories, we found no evidence of a difference in relative time percentage estimates between CO and ST (FP stockroom management - 3.0%, 95% CI - 7.4 to 1.4%; non-FP stockroom management 3.4%, 95% CI - 2.8 to 9.6%; and other productive activities - 0.1%, 95% CI - 6.3 to 6.0%). Data collection costs for CO are 140% more than ST. CONCLUSION: STs were not a reliable method for measuring absolute labour time at health facilities in Senegal due to considerable underestimates of time waiting for clients. However, ST had acceptable reliability when examining distribution of productive time. Although CO provides more accurate absolute time estimates, the unit costs for data collection using this method are more than triple those for STs in Senegal.

Caregivers' compliance with referral advice: evidence from two studies introducing mRDTs into community case management of malaria in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Several malaria endemic countries have implemented community health worker (CHW) programmes to increase access to populations underserved by health care. There is considerable evidence on CHW adherence to case management guidelines, however, there is limited evidence on the compliance to referral advice and the outcomes of children under-5 referred by CHWs. This analysis examined whether caregivers complied with CHWs referral advice. METHODS: Data from two cluster (village) randomised trials, one in a moderate-to-high malaria transmission setting, another in a low-transmission setting conducted between January 2010-July 2011 were analysed. CHW were trained to recognise signs and symptoms that required referral to a health centre. CHW in the intervention arm also had training on; malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDT) and administering artemisinin based combination therapy (ACT); CHW in the control arm were trained to treat malaria with ACTs based on fever symptoms. Caregivers' referral forms were linked with CHW treatment forms to determine whether caregivers complied with the referral advice. Factors associated with compliance were examined with logistic regression. RESULTS: CHW saw 18,497 child visits in the moderate-to-high transmission setting and referred 15.2% (2815/18,497) of all visits; in the low-transmission setting, 35.0% (1135/3223) of all visits were referred. Compliance to referral was low, in both settings < 10% of caregivers complied with referral advice. In the moderate-to-high transmission setting compliance was higher if children were tested with mRDT compared to children who were not tested with mRDT. In both settings, nearly all children treated with pre-referral rectal artesunate failed to comply with referral and compliance was independently associated with factors such as health centre distance and day of referral by a CHW. In the moderate-to-high transmission setting, time of presentation, severity of referral were also associated with compliance, whilst in the low-transmission setting, compliance was low if an ACT was prescribed. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests there are several barriers to comply with CHWs referral advice by caregivers. This is concerning for children who received rectal artesunate. As CHW programmes continue scale-up, barriers to referral compliance need to be addressed to ensure a continuum of care from the community to the health centre. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov. Identifier NCT01048801 , 13th January 2010.

Provider and user acceptability of intermittent screening and treatment for the control of malaria in pregnancy in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Malaria in pregnancy is a major cause of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Intermittent preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) is one of the control strategies promoted by WHO. In response to mounting resistance to SP, intermittent screening and treatment (ISTp) has been proposed as an alternative. The objective of this study was to explore the acceptability of ISTp for health workers and pregnant women. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews of ten health workers and five focus group discussions of 38 women enrolled in an ongoing trial comparing IPTp-SP and ISTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) were conducted at two antenatal clinics in rural Malawi. All transcripts were coded and themes were identified using a content analysis approach. RESULTS: Amongst health workers, there were contrasting opinions on the preference of blood sampling methods, and the influence of method on reliability of diagnosis. The perceived greater effectiveness of DP compared to SP was appreciated, however concerns of user compliance with the full dose of DP in non-trial settings were raised. Despite the discomfort of repeated finger pricks, pregnant women were generally accepting of ISTp, particularly the chance for regular blood tests to check for infections and the perceived greater effectiveness with fewer side effects of DP compared to SP. CONCLUSION: In the trial context, pregnant women tended to prefer ISTp-DP over IPTp-SP. Health workers were also accepting of ISTp-DP as an alternative to IPTp-SP in light of increasing SP resistance. However, reliability of stock, adherence to malaria test results and user adherence to the full course of DP may present barriers to successful routine implementation. Effective communication with health workers and between health workers, pregnant women and their communities will be essential for the acceptability of focused antenatal care, including the best malaria control measures available.

Referral Patterns of Community Health Workers Diagnosing and Treating Malaria: Cluster-Randomized Trials in Two Areas of High- and Low-Malaria Transmission in Southwestern Uganda.

Malaria-endemic countries have implemented community health worker (CHW) programs to provide malaria diagnosis and treatment to populations living beyond the reach of health systems. However, there is limited evidence describing the referral practices of CHWs. We examined the impact of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) on CHW referral in two cluster-randomized trials, one conducted in a moderate-to-high malaria transmission setting and one in a low-transmission setting in Uganda, between January 2010 and July 2012. All CHWs were trained to prescribe artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for malaria and recognize signs and symptoms for referral to health centers. CHWs in the control arm used a presumptive diagnosis for malaria based on clinical symptoms, whereas intervention arm CHWs used mRDTs. CHWs recorded ACT prescriptions, mRDT results, and referral in patient registers. An intention-to-treat analysis was undertaken using multivariable logistic regression. Referral was more frequent in the intervention arm versus the control arm (moderate-to-high transmission, P < 0.001; low transmission, P < 0.001). Despite this increase, referral advice was not always given when ACTs or prereferral rectal artesunate were prescribed: 14% prescribed rectal artesunate in the moderate-to-high setting were not referred. In addition, CHWs considered factors alongside mRDTs when referring. Child visits during the weekends or the rainy season were less likely to be referred, whereas visits to CHWs more distant from health centers were more likely to be referred (low transmission only). CHWs using mRDTs and ACTs increased referral compared with CHWs using a presumptive diagnosis. To address these concerns, referral training should be emphasized in CHW programs as they are scaled-up.

Community health workers adherence to referral guidelines: evidence from studies introducing RDTs in two malaria transmission settings in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Many malaria-endemic countries have implemented national community health worker (CHW) programmes to serve remote populations that have poor access to malaria diagnosis and treatment. Despite mounting evidence of CHWs' ability to adhere to malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and treatment guidelines, there is limited evidence whether CHWs adhere to the referral guidelines and refer severely ill children for further management. In southwest Uganda, this study examined whether CHWs referred children according to training guidelines and described factors associated with adherence to the referral guideline. METHODS: A secondary analysis was undertaken of data collected during two cluster-randomized trials conducted between January 2010 and July 2011, one in a moderate-to-high malaria transmission setting and the other in a low malaria transmission setting. All CHWs were trained to prescribe artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and recognize symptoms in children that required immediate referral to the nearest health centre. Intervention arm CHWs had additional training on how to conduct an RDT; CHWs in the control arm used a presumptive diagnosis for malaria using clinical signs and symptoms. CHW treatment registers were reviewed to identify children eligible for referral according to training guidelines (temperature of ≥38.5 °C), to assess whether CHWs adhered to the guidelines and referred them. Factors associated with adherence were examined with logistic regression models. RESULTS: CHWs failed to refer 58.8% of children eligible in the moderate-to-high transmission and 31.2% of children in the low transmission setting. CHWs using RDTs adhered to the referral guidelines more frequently than CHWs not using RDTs (moderate-to-high transmission: 50.1 vs 18.0%, p = 0.003; low transmission: 88.5 vs 44.1%, p < 0.001). In both settings, fewer than 20% of eligible children received pre-referral treatment with rectal artesunate. Children who were prescribed ACT were very unlikely to be referred in both settings (97.7 and 73.3% were not referred in the moderate-to-high and low transmission settings, respectively). In the moderate-to-high transmission setting, day and season of visit were also associated with the likelihood of adherence to the referral guidelines, but not in the low transmission setting. CONCLUSIONS: CHW adherence to referral guidelines was poor in both transmission settings. However, training CHWs to use RDT improved correct referral of children with a high fever compared to a presumptive diagnosis using sign and symptoms. As many countries scale up CHW programmes, routine monitoring of reported data should be examined carefully to assess whether CHWs adhere to referral guidelines and take remedial actions where required.

Taking stock: protocol for evaluating a family planning supply chain intervention in Senegal.

BACKGROUND: In Senegal, only 12% of women of reproductive age in union (WRAU) were using contraceptives and another 29% had an unmet need for contraceptives in 2010-11. One potential barrier to accessing contraceptives is the lack of stock availability in health facilities where women seek them. Multiple supply chain interventions have been piloted in low- and middle-income countries with the aim of improving contraceptive availability in health facilities. However, there is limited evidence on the effect of these interventions on contraceptive availability in facilities, and in turn on family planning use in the population. This evaluation protocol pertains to a supply chain intervention using performance-based contracting for contraceptive distribution that was introduced throughout Senegal between 2012 and 2015. METHODS: This multi-disciplinary research project will include quantitative, qualitative and economic evaluations. Trained researchers in the different disciplines will implement the studies separately but alongside each other, sharing findings throughout the project to inform each other's data collection. A non-randomised study with stepped-wedge design will be used to estimate the effect of the intervention on contraceptive stock availability in health facilities, and on the modern contraceptive prevalence rate among women in Senegal, compared to the current pull-based distribution model used for other commodities. Secondary data from annual Service Provision Assessments and Demographic and Health Surveys will be used for this study. Data on stock availability and monthly family planning consultations over a 4-year period will be collected from 200 health facilities in five regions to perform time series analyses. A process evaluation will be conducted to understand the extent to which the intervention was implemented as originally designed, the acceptability of third-party logisticians within the health system and potential unintended consequences. These will be assessed using monthly indicator data from the implementer and multiple ethnographic methods, including in-depth interviews with key informants and stakeholders at all levels of the distribution system, observations of third-party logisticians and clinic diaries. An economic evaluation will estimate the cost of the intervention, as well as its cost-effectiveness compared to the current supply chain model. DISCUSSION: Given the very limited evidence base, there is an important need for a comprehensive standardised approach to evaluating supply chain management, and distribution specifically. This evaluation will help address this evidence gap by providing rigorous evidence on whether private performance-based contracting for distribution of contraceptives can contribute to improving access to family planning in low- and middle-income countries.

Health Facility Utilisation Changes during the Introduction of Community Case Management of Malaria in South Western Uganda: An Interrupted Time Series Approach.

BACKGROUND: Malaria endemic countries have scaled-up community health worker (CHW) interventions, to diagnose and treat malaria in communities with limited access to public health systems. The evaluations of these programmes have centred on CHW's compliance to guidelines, but the broader changes at public health centres including utilisation and diagnoses made, has received limited attention. METHODS: This analysis was conducted during a CHW-intervention for malaria in Rukungiri District, Western Uganda. Outpatient department (OPD) visit data were collected for children under-5 attending three health centres one year before the CHW-intervention started (pre-intervention period) and for 20 months during the intervention (intervention-period). An interrupted time series analysis with segmented regression models was used to compare the trends in malaria, non-malaria and overall OPD visits during the pre-intervention and intervention-period. RESULTS: The introduction of a CHW-intervention suggested the frequency of diagnoses of diarrhoeal diseases, pneumonia and helminths increased, whilst the frequency of malaria diagnoses declined at health centres. In May 2010 when the intervention began, overall health centre utilisation decreased by 63% compared to the pre-intervention period and the health centres saw 32 fewer overall visits per month compared to the pre-intervention period (p<0.001). Malaria visits also declined shortly after the intervention began and there were 27 fewer visits per month during the intervention-period compared with the pre-intervention period (p<0.05). The declines in overall and malaria visits were sustained for the entire intervention-period. In contrast, there were no observable changes in trends of non-malarial visits between the pre-intervention and intervention-period. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests introducing a CHW-intervention can reduce the number of child malaria visits and change the profile of cases presenting at health centres. The reduction in workload of health workers may allow them to spend more time with patients or undertake additional curative or preventative roles.

Community health workers and stand-alone or integrated case management of malaria: a systematic literature review.

A systematic literature review was conducted to assess the effectiveness of strategies to improve community case management (CCM) of malaria. Forty-three studies were included; most (38) reported indicators of community health worker (CHW) performance, 14 reported on malaria CCM integrated with other child health interventions, 16 reported on health system capacity, and 13 reported on referral. The CHWs are able to provide good quality malaria care, including performing procedures such as rapid diagnostic tests. Appropriate training, clear guidelines, and regular supportive supervision are important facilitating factors. Crucial to sustainable success of CHW programs is strengthening health system capacity to support commodity supply, supervision, and appropriate treatment of referred cases. The little evidence available on referral from community to health facility level suggests that this is an area that needs priority attention. The studies of integrated CCM suggest that additional tasks do not reduce the quality of malaria CCM provided sufficient training and supervision is maintained.

Evaluation of a universal long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) distribution campaign in Ghana: cost effectiveness of distribution and hang-up activities.

BACKGROUND: Between May 2010 and October 2012, approximately 12.5 million long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) were distributed through a national universal mass distribution campaign in Ghana. The campaign included pre-registration of persons and sleeping places, door-to-door distribution of LLINs with 'hang-up' activities by volunteers and post-distribution 'keep-up' behaviour change communication activities. Hang-up activities were included to encourage high and sustained use. METHODS: The cost and cost-effectiveness of the LLIN Campaign were evaluated using a before-after design in three regions: Brong Ahafo, Central and Western. The incremental cost effectiveness of the 'hang-up' component was estimated using reported variation in the implementation of hang-up activities and LLIN use. Economic costs were estimated from a societal perspective assuming LLINs would be replaced after three years, and included the time of unpaid volunteers and household contributions given to volunteers. RESULTS: Across the three regions, 3.6 million campaign LLINs were distributed, and 45.5% of households reported the LLINs received were hung-up by a volunteer. The financial cost of the campaign was USD 6.51 per LLIN delivered. The average annual economic cost was USD 2.90 per LLIN delivered and USD 6,619 per additional child death averted by the campaign. The cost-effectiveness of the campaign was sensitive to the price, lifespan and protective efficacy of LLINs.Hang-up activities constituted 7% of the annual economic cost, though the additional financial cost was modest given the use of volunteers. LLIN use was greater in households in which one or more campaign LLINs were hung by a volunteer (OR=1.57; 95% CI=1.09, 2.27; p=0.02). The additional economic cost of the hang-up activities was USD 0.23 per LLIN delivered, and achieved a net saving per LLIN used and per death averted. CONCLUSION: In this campaign, hang-up activities were estimated to be net saving if hang-up increased LLIN use by 10% or more. This suggests hang-up activities can make a LLIN campaign more cost-effective.

Roles and effectiveness of lay community health workers in the prevention of mental, neurological and substance use disorders in low and middle income countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that lay community health workers (LHWs) could play a role in primary and secondary prevention of Mental, Neurological and Substance use (MNS) disorders in low resourced settings. We conducted a systematic review of the literature with the aim of assessing the existing evidence base for the roles and effectiveness of LHWs in primary and secondary prevention of MNS disorders in low and middle income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Internet searches of relevant electronic databases for articles published in English were done in August 2011 and repeated in June 2013. Abstracts and full text articles were screened according to predefined criteria. Authors were asked for additional information where necessary. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies, 11 of which were randomised, met our inclusion criteria. Studies were heterogeneous with respect to interventions, outcomes and LHWs' roles. Reduction in symptoms of depression and improved child mental development were the common outcomes assessed. Primary prevention and secondary prevention strategies were carried out in 11 studies and 4 studies respectively .There was evidence of effectiveness of interventions however, most studies (n = 13) involved small sample sizes and all were judged to have an unclear or high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: LHWs have the potential to provide psychosocial and psychological interventions as part of primary and secondary prevention of MNS disorders in LMICs, but there is currently insufficient robust evidence of effectiveness of LHW led preventive strategies in this setting. More studies need to be carried out in a wider range of settings in LMICs that control for risk of bias as far as possible, and that also collect indicators relating to the fidelity and cost of interventions.

Estimating population access to insecticide-treated nets from administrative data: correction factor is needed.

BACKGROUND: Population access to insecticide-treated nets (ITN) is usually determined from survey data. However, for planning purposes it is necessary to estimate this indicator between surveys. Two different approaches are currently recommended for such estimates from administrative data, multiplying the number of ITN delivered either by 2.0 or 1.8 before dividing by the population. However, the validity of such estimates has not previously been investigated. METHODS: Thirty-five datasets from household surveys in sub-Saharan Africa were selected from ten different countries. The number of ITN and de-facto population from the samples was used as proxy administrative data and estimates of population access to ITN were calculated using the recommended formulae. Administrative estimates were compared to the access indicator from the survey data. Regression analysis was used to further define the relationship between administrative and survey population access. Mean number of ITN users was determined for each data set separately for households with and without enough ITN. RESULTS: Analysis of users per ITN showed that the assumption of two users per net is valid overall (median 2.00) but that it was consistently lower in households with at least one ITN for every two people (median 1.66). Using the formula number of ITN times 2.0 divided by the population to estimate population access to ITN from administrative data generally overestimated the survey access indicator. This was particularly the case at higher coverage levels, resulting in a 30 percentage-point overestimate at survey access above 80%. Using 1.8 as the multiplier for the number of ITN from administrative data improved the results but still showed a 19 percentage-point overestimate at access coverage above 80%. Regression analysis found that a factor of 1.64 provides the best prediction of the access indicator with slight underestimation at low access levels but good fit at levels above 55%. CONCLUSIONS: A factor of 1.6 rather than 2.0 or 1.8 as the mean number of users per ITN provides a more accurate estimation of population access to ITN from administrative data accounting for discordant ITN-person pairs and a reduced number of ITN users when sufficient ITN are available.

Sustaining fragile gains: the need to maintain coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets for malaria control and likely implications of not doing so.

Global commitment to malaria control has greatly increased over the last decade. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have become a core intervention of national malaria control strategies and over 450 million nets were distributed in sub-Saharan Africa between 2008 and 2012. Despite the impressive gains made as a result of increased investment in to malaria control, such gains remain fragile. Existing funding commitments for LLINs in the pipeline to 2016 were collated for 40 sub-Saharan African countries. The population-based model NetCALC was used to estimate the potential LLIN coverage achievable with these commitments and identify remaining gaps, and the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to estimate likely consequences for mortality impact if these gaps remain unfilled. Overall, countries calculated a total need of 806 million LLINs for 2013-16. Current funding commitments meet just over half of this need, leaving approximately 374 million LLINs unfunded, most of which are needed to maintain coverage in 2015 and 2016. An estimated additional 938,500 child lives (uncertainty range: 559,400-1,364,200) could be saved from 2013 through 2016 with existing funding (relative to 2009 LLIN coverage taken as the 'baseline' for this analysis); if the funding gap were closed this would increase to 1,180,500 lives saved (uncertainty range: 707,000-1,718,900). Overall, the funding gap equates to approximately 242,000 avoidable malaria-attributable deaths amongst under-fives. Substantial additional resources will need to be mobilized to meet the full LLIN need of sub-Saharan countries to maintain universal coverage. Unless these resources are mobilized, the impressive gains made to date will not be sustained and tens of thousands of avoidable child deaths will occur.

Strategies for delivering insecticide-treated nets at scale for malaria control: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To synthesize findings from recent studies of strategies to deliver insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) at scale in malaria-endemic areas. METHODS: Databases were searched for studies published between January 2000 and December 2010 in which: subjects resided in areas with endemicity for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria; ITN delivery at scale was evaluated; ITN ownership among households, receipt by pregnant women and/or use among children aged < 5 years was evaluated; and the study design was an individual or cluster-randomized controlled design, nonrandomized, quasi-experimental, before-and-after, interrupted time series or cross-sectional without temporal or geographical controls. Papers describing qualitative studies, case studies, process evaluations and cost-effectiveness studies linked to an eligible paper were also included. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias checklist and GRADE criteria. Important influences on scaling up were identified and assessed across delivery strategies. FINDINGS: A total of 32 papers describing 20 African studies were reviewed. Many delivery strategies involved health sectors and retail outlets (partial subsidy), antenatal care clinics (full subsidy) and campaigns (full subsidy). Strategies achieving high ownership among households and use among children < 5 delivered ITNs free through campaigns. Costs were largely comparable across strategies; ITNs were the main cost. Cost-effectiveness estimates were most sensitive to the assumed net lifespan and leakage. Common barriers to delivery included cost, stock-outs and poor logistics. Common facilitators were staff training and supervision, cooperation across departments or ministries and stakeholder involvement. CONCLUSION: There is a broad taxonomy of strategies for delivering ITNs at scale.

From intervention to impact: modelling the potential mortality impact achievable by different long-lasting, insecticide-treated net delivery strategies.

BACKGROUND: The current target of universal access to long-lasting, insecticide-treated nets (LLIN) is 80% coverage to reduce malaria deaths by 75% by 2015. So far, campaigns have been the main channel for large-scale delivery of LLINs, however the World Health Organization has recommended that equal priority should be given to delivery via routine antenatal care (ANC) and immunization systems (EPI) to target pregnant women and children from birth. These various channels of LLIN delivery are targeted to children of different ages. Since risk of mortality varies with child age and LLIN effectiveness declines with net age, it was hypothesized that the age at which a child receives a new LLIN, and therefore the delivery channel, is important in optimizing the health impact of a net. METHODS: A simple dynamic mathematical model was developed of delivery and impact of LLINs among children under five years of age and their household members, incorporating data on age-specific malaria death rates, net use by household structure, and net efficacy over time. RESULTS: The presented analysis finds that supplementing a universal mass campaign with extra ANC delivery would achieve a 1.4 times higher mortality reduction than campaign delivery alone, reflecting that children born in the years between campaigns would otherwise have access to old nets or no nets at an age of high risk. The relative advantage of supplementary ANC delivery is still present though smaller if malaria transmission levels are lower or if there is a strong mass effect achieved by mass campaigns. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that LLIN delivery policies must take into account the age of greatest malaria risk. Emphasis should be placed on supporting routine delivery of LLINs to young children as well as campaigns.

Who attends antenatal care and expanded programme on immunization services in Chad, Mali and Niger? The implications for insecticide-treated net delivery.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains one of the largest public health problems facing the developing world. Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are an effective intervention against malaria. ITN delivery through routine health services, such as antenatal care (ANC) and childhood vaccination (EPI), is a promising channel of delivery to reach individuals with the highest risk (pregnant women and children under five years old). Decisions on whether to deliver ITNs through both channels depends upon the reach of each of these systems, whether these are independent and the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of each. Predictors of women attending ANC and EPI separately have been studied, but the predictors of those who attend neither service have not been identified. METHODS: Data from Chad, Mali and Niger demographic and health surveys (DHS) were analyzed to determine risk factors for attending neither service. A conceptual framework for preventative health care-seeking behaviour was created to illustrate the hierarchical relationships between the potential risk factors. The independence of attending both ANC and EPI was investigated. A multivariate model of predictors for non-attendance was developed using logistic regression. RESULTS: ANC and EPI attendance were found to be strongly associated in all three countries. However, 47% of mothers in Chad, 12% in Mali and 36% in Niger did not attend either ANC or EPI. Region, mother's education and partner's education were predictors of non-attendance in all three countries. Wealth index, ethnicity, and occupation were associated with non-attendance in Mali and Niger. Other predictors included religion, healthcare autonomy, household size and number of children under five. CONCLUSIONS: Attendance of ANC and EPI are not independent and therefore the majority of pregnant women in these countries will have the opportunity to receive ITNs through both services. Although attendance at ANC and EPI are not independent, delivery through both systems may still add incrementally to delivery through one alone. Therefore, there is potential to increase the proportion of women and children receiving ITNs by delivering through both of these channels. However, modelling is required to determine the level of attendance and incremental potential at which it's cost effective to deliver through both services.