Does gabapentin provide benefit for patients with knee OA? A benefit-harm and cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Gabapentin can treat neuropathic pain syndromes and has increasingly been prescribed to treat nociplastic pain. Some patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) suffer from both nociceptive and nociplastic pain. We examined the cost-effectiveness of adding gabapentin to knee OA care. METHOD: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model, a validated Monte Carlo simulation of knee OA, to examine the value of gabapentin in treating knee OA by comparing three strategies: 1) usual care, gabapentin sparing (UC-GS); 2) targeted gabapentin (TG), which provides gabapentin plus usual care for those who screen positive for nociplastic pain on the modified PainDETECT questionnaire (mPD-Q) and usual care only for those who screen negative; and 3) universal gabapentin plus usual care (UG). Outcomes included cumulative quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime direct medical costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), discounted at 3% annually. We derived model inputs from published literature and national databases and varied key input parameters in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: UC-GS dominated both gabapentin-containing strategies, as it led to lower costs and more QALYs. TG resulted in a cost increase of $689 and a cumulative QALY reduction of 0.012 QALYs. UG resulted in a further $1,868 cost increase and 0.036 QALY decrease. The results were robust to plausible changes in input parameters. The lowest TG strategy ICER of $53,000/QALY was reported when mPD-Q specificity was increased to 100% and AE rate was reduced to 0%. CONCLUSION: Incorporating gabapentin into care for patients with knee OA does not appear to offer good value.

Cost-effectiveness of health coaching and financial incentives to promote physical activity after total knee replacement.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of Telephonic Health Coaching and Financial Incentives (THC + FI) to promote physical activity in total knee replacement recipients. DESIGN: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model, a computer simulation of knee osteoarthritis, to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of THC + FI compared to usual care. We derived transition probabilities, utilities, and costs from trial data. We conducted lifetime analyses from the healthcare perspective and discounted all cost-effectiveness outcomes by 3% annually. The primary outcome was the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER), defined as the ratio of the differences in costs and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) between strategies. We considered ICERs <$100,000/QALY to be cost-effective. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses that varied parameters across their 95% confidence intervals (CI) and limited the efficacy of THC + FI to 1 year or to 9 months. We also conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA), simultaneously varying cost, utilities, and transition probabilities. RESULTS: THC + FI had an ICER of $57,200/QALY in the base case and an ICER below $100,000/QALY in most deterministic sensitivity analyses. THC + FI cost-effectiveness depended on assumptions about long-term efficacy; when efficacy was limited to 1 year or to 9 months, the ICER was $93,300/QALY or $121,800/QALY, respectively. In the PSA, THC + FI had an ICER below $100,000/QALY in 70% of iterations. CONCLUSIONS: Based on currently available information, THC + FI might be a cost-effective alternative to usual care. However, the uncertainty surrounding this choice is considerable, and further research to reduce this uncertainty may be economically justified.

Cost-effectiveness of generic celecoxib in knee osteoarthritis for average-risk patients: a model-based evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: The cost-effectiveness of the recently-introduced generic celecoxib in knee OA has not been examined. METHOD: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy (OAPol) Model, a validated computer simulation of knee OA, to evaluate long-term clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of generic celecoxib in persons with knee OA. We examined eight treatment strategies consisting of generic celecoxib, over-the-counter (OTC) naproxen, or prescription naproxen, with or without prescription or OTC proton-pump-inhibitors (PPIs) to reduce gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity. In the base case, we assumed that annual cost was $130 for OTC naproxen, $360 for prescription naproxen, and $880 for generic celecoxib. We considered a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and discounted costs and benefits at 3% annually. In sensitivity analyses we varied celecoxib toxicity, discontinuation, cost, and pain level. RESULTS: In the base case analysis of the high pain cohort (WOMAC 50), celecoxib had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $284,630/QALY compared with OTC naproxen. Only under highly favorable cost, toxicity, and discontinuation assumptions (e.g., annual cost below $360, combined with a reduction in the cardiovascular (CV) event rates below baseline values) was celecoxib likely to be cost-effective. Celecoxib might also be cost-effective at an annual cost of $600 if CV toxicity were eliminated completely. In subjects with moderate pain (WOMAC 30), at the base case CV event rate of 0.2%, generic celecoxib was only cost-effective at the lowest plausible cost ($190). CONCLUSION: In knee OA patients with no comorbidities, generic celecoxib is not cost-effective at its current price.

Model-based evaluation of cost-effectiveness of nerve growth factor inhibitors in knee osteoarthritis: impact of drug cost, toxicity, and means of administration.

OBJECTIVE: Studies suggest nerve growth factor inhibitors (NGFi) relieve pain but may accelerate disease progression in some patients with osteoarthritis (OA). We sought cost and toxicity thresholds that would make NGFi a cost-effective treatment for moderate-to-severe knee OA. DESIGN: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy (OAPol) model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of NGFi compared to standard of care (SOC) in OA, using Tanezumab as an example. Efficacy and rates of accelerated OA progression were based on published studies. We varied the price/dose from $200 to $1000. We considered self-administered subcutaneous (SC) injections (no administration cost) vs provider-administered intravenous (IV) infusion ($69-$433/dose). Strategies were defined as cost-effective if their incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was less than $100,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). In sensitivity analyses we varied efficacy, toxicity, and costs. RESULTS: SOC in patients with high levels of pain led to an average discounted quality-adjusted life expectancy of 11.15 QALYs, a lifetime risk of total knee replacement surgery (TKR) of 74%, and cumulative discounted direct medical costs of $148,700. Adding Tanezumab increased QALYs to 11.42, reduced primary TKR utilization to 63%, and increased costs to between $155,400 and $199,500. In the base-case analysis, Tanezumab at $600/dose was cost-effective when delivered outside of a hospital. At $1000/dose, Tanezumab was not cost-effective in all but the most optimistic scenario. Only at rates of accelerated OA progression of 10% or more (10-fold higher than reported values) did Tanezumab decrease QALYs and fail to represent a viable option. CONCLUSIONS: At $100,000/QALY, Tanezumab would be cost effective if priced ≤$400/dose in all settings except IV hospital delivery.

Cost-effectiveness of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and opioids in the treatment of knee osteoarthritis in older patients with multiple comorbidities.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate long-term clinical and economic outcomes of naproxen, ibuprofen, celecoxib or tramadol for OA patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes. DESIGN: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model to examine treatment with these analgesics after standard of care (SOC) - acetaminophen and corticosteroid injections - failed to control pain. NSAID regimens were evaluated with and without proton pump inhibitors (PPIs). We evaluated over-the-counter (OTC) regimens where available. Estimates of treatment efficacy (pain reduction, occurring in ∼57% of patients on all regimens) and toxicity (major cardiac or gastrointestinal toxicity or fractures, risk ranging from 1.09% with celecoxib to 5.62% with tramadol) were derived from published literature. Annual costs came from Red Book Online(®). Outcomes were discounted at 3%/year and included costs, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Key input parameters were varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Adding ibuprofen to SOC was cost saving, increasing QALYs by 0.07 while decreasing cost by $800. Incorporating OTC naproxen rather than ibuprofen added 0.01 QALYs and increased costs by $300, resulting in an ICER of $54,800/QALY. Using prescription naproxen with OTC PPIs led to an ICER of $76,700/QALY, while use of prescription naproxen with prescription PPIs resulted in an ICER of $252,300/QALY. Regimens including tramadol or celecoxib cost more but added fewer QALYs and thus were dominated by several of the naproxen-containing regimens. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with multiple comorbidities, naproxen- and ibuprofen-containing regimens are more effective and cost-effective in managing OA pain than opioids, celecoxib or SOC.

Disease-modifying drugs for knee osteoarthritis: can they be cost-effective?

OBJECTIVE: Disease-modifying osteoarthritis drugs (DMOADs) are under development. Our goal was to determine efficacy, toxicity, and cost thresholds under which DMOADs would be a cost-effective knee OA treatment. DESIGN: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model, a validated computer simulation of knee OA, to compare guideline-concordant care to strategies that insert DMOADs into the care sequence. The guideline-concordant care sequence included conservative pain management, corticosteroid injections, total knee replacement (TKR), and revision TKR. Base case DMOAD characteristics included: 50% chance of suspending progression in the first year (resumption rate of 10% thereafter) and 30% pain relief among those with suspended progression; 0.5%/year risk of major toxicity; and costs of $1,000/year. In sensitivity analyses, we varied suspended progression (20-100%), pain relief (10-100%), major toxicity (0.1-2%), and cost ($1,000-$7,000). Outcomes included costs, quality-adjusted life expectancy, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and TKR utilization. RESULTS: Base case DMOADs added 4.00 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and $230,000 per 100 persons, with an ICER of $57,500/QALY. DMOADs reduced need for TKR by 15%. Cost-effectiveness was most sensitive to likelihoods of suspended progression and pain relief. DMOADs costing $3,000/year achieved ICERs below $100,000/QALY if the likelihoods of suspended progression and pain relief were 20% and 70%. At a cost of $5,000, these ICERs were attained if the likelihoods of suspended progression and pain relief were both 60%. CONCLUSIONS: Cost, suspended progression, and pain relief are key drivers of value for DMOADs. Plausible combinations of these factors could reduce need for TKR and satisfy commonly cited cost-effectiveness criteria.

Newer drugs and earlier treatment: impact on lifetime cost of care for HIV-infected adults.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the component costs of care to optimize treatment with limited resources. DESIGN: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications Model of HIV disease and treatment to project life expectancy and both undiscounted and discounted lifetime costs (2010 €). METHODS: We determined medical resource utilization among HIV-infected adults followed from 1998 to 2005 in northern France. Monthly HIV costs were stratified by CD4 cell count. Costs of CD4, HIV RNA and genotype tests and antiretroviral therapy (ART) were derived from published literature. Model inputs from national data included mean age 38 years, mean initial CD4 cell count 372 cells/µl, ART initiation at CD4 cell counts less than 350 cells/µl, and ART regimen costs ranging from €760 to 2570 per month. RESULTS: The model projected a mean undiscounted life expectancy of 26.5 years and a lifetime undiscounted cost of €535,000/patient (€320,700 discounted); 73% of costs were ART related. When patients presented to care with mean CD4 cell counts of 510 cells/µl and initiated ART at CD4 cell counts less than 500 cells/µl or HIV RNA more than 100,000 copies/ml, life expectancy was 27.4 years and costs increased 1-2%, to €546,700 (€324,500 discounted). When we assumed introducing generic drugs would result in a 50% decline in first-line ART costs, lifetime costs decreased 4-6%, to €514,200 (€302 ,800 discounted). CONCLUSION: As HIV disease is treated earlier with more efficacious drugs, survival and thus costs of care will continue to increase. The availability in high-income countries of widely used antiretroviral drugs in generic form could reduce these costs.

Surveillance for isocyanate asthma: a model based cost effectiveness analysis.

AIMS: Because logistical and financial obstacles impede using large prospective cohort studies, surveillance decisions in occupational settings must often be made without evidence of relative benefits and costs. Using the example of isocyanate induced asthma, the most commonly reported immune mediated occupational asthma, the authors developed a model based approach to evaluate the costs and benefits of surveillance from both an employer and a societal perspective. METHODS: The authors used a mathematical simulation model of isocyanate asthma to compare annual surveillance to passive case finding. Outcome measures included symptom free days (SFD), quality adjusted life years (QALY), direct costs, productivity losses, and incremental cost effectiveness ratio (CER), measured from the employer and the societal perspectives. Input data were obtained from a variety of published sources. RESULTS: For 100,000 exposed workers, surveillance resulted in 683 fewer cases of disability over 10 years. Surveillance conferred benefits at an incremental cost of 24,000 dollars/QALY (employer perspective; 13.33 dollars/SFD) and was cost saving from the societal perspective. Results were sensitive to assumptions about sensitisation rate, removal rates, and time to diagnosis, but not to assumptions about therapy costs and disability rates. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline results placed the CER for surveillance for isocyanate asthma within the acceptable range. Costs from the societal and employer perspective differed substantially with a more attractive CER from the societal perspective, suggesting opportunities for employer/societal cost sharing. The analysis demonstrates the value of a model based approach to evaluate the cost effectiveness of surveillance programmes for isocyanate asthma, and to inform shared decision making among clinicians, patients, employers, and society. Such a modeling approach may be applicable to surveillance programmes for other work related conditions.

Prevention of human immunodeficiency virus-related opportunistic infections in France: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

A simulation model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease, which incorporated French data on the progression of HIV disease in the absence of antiretroviral therapy and on cost, was used to determine the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of different strategies for the prevention of opportunistic infections in French patients who receive highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Compared with use of no prophylaxis, use of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMZ) increased per-person lifetime costs from euro 185,600 to euro 187,900 and quality-adjusted life expectancy from 112.2 to 113.7 months, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of euro 18,700 per quality-adjusted life-year (euro/QALY) gained. Compared with use of TMP-SMZ alone, use of TMP-SMZ plus azithromycin cost euro 23,900/QALY gained; adding fluconazole cost an additional euro 54,500/QALY gained. All strategies that included oral ganciclovir had cost-effectiveness ratios that exceeded euro 100,000/QALY gained. In the era of HAART, on the basis of French data, prophylaxis against Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, toxoplasmic encephalitis, and Mycobacterium avium complex bacteremia is cost-effective. Prophylaxis against fungal and cytomegalovirus infections is less cost-effective than are other therapeutic options for HIV disease and should remain of lower priority.

Use of health services by insurance status among children with asthma.

OBJECTIVES: It is well known that asthmatic children receiving Medicaid use the emergency department (ED) more frequently than otherwise-insured asthmatic children. However, the extent to which this difference is attributable to provider characteristics, medication use, access to primary care, and symptomatology is poorly understood. These factors were explored as independent predictors of health care utilization. METHODS: Baseline data from a prospective cohort study of childhood asthma severity were used. Subjects were recruited from seven New England hospitals. Home interviews collected data on monthly symptoms, health care visits, insurance status, as well as sociodemographics and asthma-related risk factors (n = 804). Characteristics of providers' practices, board certifications, and asthma specialty were obtained from Folio's Medical Dictionaries for Connecticut and Massachusetts. RESULTS: After adjusting for frequency of asthma-related primary care visits, primary provider practice type, use of asthma specialist, age, gender, medication use, and symptomatology, Medicaid children still used the ED more frequently for asthma services than privately insured children (RR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1, 2.5). In general, race/ethnicity did not modify the relationship between insurance status and health care use, except that black children receiving Medicaid were 90% (95% CI, 0.0, 0.7) less likely to have had > or = 3 routine primary care visits for asthma in the previous year than black privately insured children. White children receiving Medicaid were 2.5 (95% CI, 1.0, 6.9) times more likely to use the ED for asthma than privately insured white children. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that enabling, structural, and need factors do not necessarily explain observed differences in pediatric asthma health care use by insurance status. Future investigation must explore other explanatory factors such as maternal attitudes and beliefs and patient-provider communication.

Incidence of primary opportunistic infections in two human immunodeficiency virus-infected French clinical cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines for the prevention of opportunistic infections in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals have been developed on the basis of natural history data collected in the USA. The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of primary opportunistic infections in HIV-infected individuals in geographically distinct cohorts in France. METHODS: We conducted our study on 2664 HIV-infected patients from the Tourcoing AIDS Reference Centre and the hospital-based information system of the Groupe d'Epidémiologie Clinique du SIDA en Aquitaine enrolled from January 1987 to September 1995 and followed through December 1995. We estimated: (1) CD4-adjusted incidence rates of seven primary opportunistic infections in the absence of prophylaxis for that specific infection or any antiretroviral drugs other than zidovudine; and (2) CD4 lymphocyte count decline. RESULTS: The highest incidence rates for all opportunistic infections studied occurred in patients with CD4 counts < 200/microl. With CD4 counts < 50/microl, the most common opportunistic infections were toxoplasmic encephalitis (12.6 per 100 person-years) and Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (11.4 per 100 person-years). Mycobacterium tuberculosis was the least common opportunistic infection (< 5.0/100 person-years). Even with CD4 counts > 300/microl, cases of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and toxoplasmic encephalitis were reported. The mean CD4 lymphocyte decline per month was 4.6 cells/microl. There was a significant association between HIV risk behaviour and the incidence of cytomegalovirus infection, between calendar year and the incidence of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, toxoplasmic encephalitis and Candida esophagitis, and between geographical area and the incidence of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and cytomegalovirus infection. CONCLUSIONS: Geographical differences exist in the incidence of HIV-related opportunistic infections. These results can be used to define local priorities for prophylaxis of opportunistic infections.

Cost-effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids in adults with mild-to-moderate asthma: results from the asthma policy model.

BACKGROUND: Inhaled corticosteroids remain underused among United States-based clinicians in treating mild-to-moderate adult asthma. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this investigation was to estimate the clinical impact, health-related quality of life, cost, and cost-effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroid therapy in a population of patients aged 18 years and over with FEV(1) = 60% to 100% of predicted normal. METHODS: We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of quick relievers (eg, short-acting beta-agonists) on an as-needed basis plus inhaled corticosteroid therapy versus quick relievers alone. A mathematical simulation model was developed to forecast symptoms, acute exacerbations, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), health care costs, and cost-effectiveness, measured in both dollars per QALY gained and dollars per symptom-free day gained. All evaluation outcomes were discounted at an annual rate of 3% and measured over a 10-year planning horizon. Data on the natural history of disease, drug efficacy, patient preferences, and economic costs were obtained from a variety of observational cohorts, randomized trials, and patient surveys. RESULTS: Over a 10-year period, use of inhaled corticosteroids increases total health costs from roughly $5,200 to $8,400 and improves QALYs from 6.8 to 7.0, implying an incremental cost of $13,500 per QALY gained. Costs per symptom-free day gained are $7.50. Both per-person acute exacerbations and hospitalizations are reduced by 33%. The cost-effectiveness findings are sensitive to the assumed efficacy and side-effects of inhaled corticosteroid therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Inhaled corticosteroids appear to deliver good comparative value in adults with mild-to-moderate asthma. Although more research is needed to understand their impact on preferences regarding side effects and compliance, these findings might be useful for priority-setting in limited resource situations.

Preevaluation of clinical trial data: the case of preemptive cytomegalovirus therapy in patients with human immunodeficiency virus.

We developed a mathematical simulation model to anticipate outcomes from an upcoming trial of targeted, preemptive cytomegalovirus (CMV) therapy in high-risk, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients identified by means of CMV polymerase chain reaction screening. We estimated the costs and consequences of CMV prophylaxis in patients with CD4(+) counts < or =100 cells/microL under various assumptions regarding disease progression, complication rates, drug effects, and costs. Without CMV preemptive therapy, lifetime costs average $44,600 with expected duration of survival of 19.16 quality-adjusted life-months and 213 CMV cases per 1000 patients. Targeted preemptive therapy with orally administered valganciclovir increases costs and duration of survival to $46,900 and 19.63 quality-adjusted life-months, respectively. CMV cases decrease to 174 per 1000 patients. The cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained is $59,000. This result compares favorably with other strategies in end-stage HIV disease but hinges on valganciclovir cost and efficacy assumptions and the absence of minimally effective salvage antiretroviral therapy for HIV. The upcoming trial should resolve the clinical uncertainty surrounding some of these assumptions.

The cost effectiveness of combination antiretroviral therapy for HIV disease.

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral therapy with a combination of three or more drugs has become the standard of care for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the United States. We estimated the clinical benefits and cost effectiveness of three-drug antiretroviral regimens. METHODS: We developed a mathematical simulation model of HIV disease, using the CD4 cell count and HIV RNA level as predictors of the progression of disease. Outcome measures included life expectancy, life expectancy adjusted for the quality of life, lifetime direct medical costs, and cost effectiveness in dollars per quality-adjusted year of life gained. Clinical data were derived from major clinical trials, including the AIDS Clinical Trials Group 320 Study. Data on costs were based on the national AIDS Cost and Services Utilization Survey, with drug costs obtained from the Red Book. RESULTS: For patients similar to those in the AIDS Clinical Trials Group 320 Study (mean CD4 cell count, 87 per cubic millimeter), life expectancy adjusted for the quality of life increased from 1.53 to 2.91 years, and per-person lifetime costs increased from $45,460 to $77,300 with three-drug therapy as compared with no therapy. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted year of life gained, as compared with no therapy, was $23,000. On the basis of additional data from other major studies, the cost-effectiveness ratio for three-drug therapy ranged from $13,000 to $23,000 per quality-adjusted year of life gained. The initial CD4 cell count and drug costs were the most important determinants of costs, clinical benefits, and cost effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of HIV infection with a combination of three antiretroviral drugs is a cost-effective use of resources.

FEV(1) is associated with risk of asthma attacks in a pediatric population.

BACKGROUND: FEV(1) is endorsed by the National Asthma Education and Prevention Program as a means for grading asthma severity. However, few data exist on the relationship between FEV(1) and asthma outcomes during long-term follow-up. OBJECTIVE: We explored the relationship between the percent predicted FEV(1) (FEV(1)%) and subsequent asthma attacks in a longitudinal study of pediatric lung health. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 13,842 children (100,292 observations) seen annually over a 15-year interval was analyzed for measurement of pulmonary function, and a respiratory questionnaire was completed. Up to grade 9, a standard questionnaire was completed by a parent or guardian; thereafter it was completed by the patient. For each observation, the report of an attack during the past year was paired with FEV(1) recorded at the field survey 1 year earlier. RESULTS: A progressive decrease in the proportion of individuals reporting an attack was associated with increasing decile of FEV(1)%. Two categorization schemes for FEV(1)% were examined: a scheme based on the National Asthma Education and Prevention Program recommendations (<60%, 60%-80%, and >80%), and an alternative scheme (<80%, 80%-100%, and >100%). In multivariate models, FEV(1)% was an independent predictor of attacks: among the parental report group, the odds ratios were 2.1 (95% CI, 1.3-3.4) and 1.4 (95% CI, 1.2-1.6) for FEV(1)% < 60% and FEV(1)% of 60% to 80% compared with FEV(1)% > 80%, respectively; and among the self-report group, odds ratios were 5.3 (95% CI, 2.2-12.9) and 1.4 (95% CI, 1.2-1.7) for FEV(1)% < 60% and FEV(1)% of 60% to 80% compared with FEV(1)% > 80%, respectively. With the alternative classification scheme, the relationship was similar, but the difference in risk between categories of FEV(1)% decreased. CONCLUSION: The strong association between FEV(1)% and risk of asthma attack over the subsequent year supports an emphasis on objective measures of lung function in assessment of risk for adverse asthma outcomes.

Remarks on the role of economic modeling.

BACKGROUND: Despite the growing scholarly acceptance of quantitative evaluation methods, modelers still struggle to define an appropriate role for their work at the decision-making level. GOAL: To make observations about the policy relevance of mathematical and economic policy modeling in HIV and sexually transmitted disease prevention and treatment. RESULTS: The debate is framed within the context of the inevitability of decision making. Viewed in this light, models can inform choices between competing alternatives by leveraging existing information, integrating data from multiple sources, addressing "what if" questions, evaluating future scenarios, and providing a uniform metric for evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: The goal of model-based evaluation should not be to supplant the decision maker, but rather to redefine the terms of the debate using quantitative methods that make the beliefs and values that lie at the heart of all difficult choices explicit.

Five minutes with the Governor.

This paper aims to initiate a dialog among readers regarding the positioning and promotion of health-related decision analysis in the public sector. It is motivated by the author's personal observations that quantitative and economic evaluation methods continue to be viewed with skepticism by some public officials and that no consensus exists within our community as to what an appropriate message to such decision makers might be. A personal view of some key themes to be stressed in defining a vision for the field is presented.

Evaluation of therapeutic strategies: a new method for balancing risk and benefit.

OBJECTIVE: A patient-specific drug safety-efficacy index was developed that combined objective clinical trial information about dose-related efficacy and toxicity with subjective perspectives on efficacy-toxicity trades. METHODS: Patient preferences were systematically assessed using the probability tradeoff technique (PTT). Toxicity ranges over which a drug's efficacy exceeded the patient's minimally acceptable efficacy represented ranges of "surplus efficacy." These can be related to the dose interval in which a drug delivers this surplus efficacy. Seventy surplus efficacy functions (for 7 hypothetical drugs and 10 hypothetical preference curves) were simulated. RESULTS: The analysis showed that index values change markedly by dose and patient preference, suggesting that different patients will benefit from different drugs depending on the dose prescribed and each patient's subjective assessment of the efficacy/toxicity tradeoff. In most situations, drugs achieve positive surplus efficacy only over limited dose ranges. The model was sensitive to different preference curves and discriminated well among drugs with different efficacy or safety profiles. CONCLUSION: This index provides a new, systematic approach to choosing a specific therapeutic intervention and dosage, when known risks and benefits are reconciled against patient-specific preferences among an array of therapeutic alternatives.

The cost-effectiveness of prophylaxis for Mycobacterium avium complex in AIDS.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simulation model to project costs, life expectancy, and cost-effectiveness in discounted dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) saved for clinical strategies to prevent Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) in patients with AIDS. METHODS: We used natural history data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, efficacy and toxicity data from randomized clinical trials, and cost data from the AIDS Cost and Services Utilization Survey. The model permits timing of prophylaxis to be stratified by CD4 count (201-300, 101-200, 51-100, and < or = 50/mm3), and allows combinations of prophylaxis, crossover to second- and third-line agents for toxicity, and consideration of adherence, resistance, and quality of life. RESULTS: The model projects that the average HIV-infected patient with a beginning CD4 count between 201 and 300/mm3 has total lifetime costs of approximately $43,150 and a quality-adjusted life expectancy of 42.35 months. If azithromycin prophylaxis for M. avium complex is begun after the CD4 declines to 50/mm3, costs and quality-adjusted survival increase to approximately $44,040 and 42.78 months, respectively, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $25,000/QALY compared with no M. avium complex prophylaxis. Other prophylaxis options (i.e., rifabutin, clarithromycin, and combination therapies) either cost more but offer shorter survival, or have cost-effectiveness ratios above $260,000/QALY. Sensitivity analysis reveals that, for reasonable assumptions about quality of life, risk of infection, prophylaxis cost, adherence, and resistance, azithromycin remains the most cost-effective prophylaxis option. CONCLUSIONS: Azithromycin prophylaxis, begun after the CD4 count has declined to 50/mm3, is the most cost-effective M. avium complex prophylaxis strategy. Consistent with new United States Public Health Service guidelines, it should be the first-line prophylaxis option.