Range of trait variation in prey determines evolutionary contributions to predator growth rates.

Evolutionary and ecological dynamics can occur on similar timescales and thus influence each other. While it has been shown that the relative contribution of ecological and evolutionary change to population dynamics can vary, it still remains unknown what influences these differences. Here, we test whether prey populations with increased variation in their defense and competitiveness traits will have a stronger impact of evolution for predator growth rates. We controlled trait variation by pairing distinct clonal lineages of the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii with known traits as prey with the rotifer Brachionus calyciforus as predator and compared those results with a mechanistic model matching the empirical system. We measured the impact of evolution (shift in prey clonal frequency) and ecology (shift in prey population density) for predator growth rate and its dependency on trait variation using an approach based on a two-way ANOVA. Our experimental results indicated that higher trait variation, i.e., a greater distance in trait space, increased the relative contribution of prey evolution to predator growth rate over 3-4 predator generations, which was also observed in model simulations spanning longer time periods. In our model, we also observed clone-specific results, where a more competitive undefended prey resulted in a higher evolutionary contribution, independent of the trait distance. Our results suggest that trait combinations and total prey trait variation combine to influence the contribution of evolution to predator population dynamics, and that trait variation can be used to identify and better predict the role of eco-evolutionary dynamics in predator-prey systems.

Statistical methods to identify mechanisms in studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

While the reciprocal effects of ecological and evolutionary dynamics are increasingly recognized as an important driver for biodiversity, detection of such eco-evolutionary feedbacks, their underlying mechanisms, and their consequences remains challenging. Eco-evolutionary dynamics occur at different spatial and temporal scales and can leave signatures at different levels of organization (e.g., gene, protein, trait, community) that are often difficult to detect. Recent advances in statistical methods combined with alternative hypothesis testing provides a promising approach to identify potential eco-evolutionary drivers for observed data even in non-model systems that are not amenable to experimental manipulation. We discuss recent advances in eco-evolutionary modeling and statistical methods and discuss challenges for fitting mechanistic models to eco-evolutionary data.

The Asymmetric Response Concept explains ecological consequences of multiple stressor exposure and release.

Our capacity to predict trajectories of ecosystem degradation and recovery is limited, especially when impairments are caused by multiple stressors. Recovery may be fast or slow and either complete or partial, sometimes result in novel ecosystem states or even fail completely. Here, we introduce the Asymmetric Response Concept (ARC) that provides a basis for exploring and predicting the pace and magnitude of ecological responses to, and release from, multiple stressors. The ARC holds that three key mechanisms govern population, community and ecosystem trajectories. Stress tolerance is the main mechanism determining responses to increasing stressor intensity, whereas dispersal and biotic interactions predominantly govern responses to the release from stressors. The shifting importance of these mechanisms creates asymmetries between the ecological trajectories that follow increasing and decreasing stressor intensities. This recognition helps to understand multiple stressor impacts and to predict which measures will restore communities that are resistant to restoration.

The Time Machine framework: monitoring and prediction of biodiversity loss.

Transdisciplinary solutions are needed to achieve the sustainability of ecosystem services for future generations. We propose a framework to identify the causes of ecosystem function loss and to forecast the future of ecosystem services under different climate and pollution scenarios. The framework (i) applies an artificial intelligence (AI) time-series analysis to identify relationships among environmental change, biodiversity dynamics and ecosystem functions; (ii) validates relationships between loss of biodiversity and environmental change in fabricated ecosystems; and (iii) forecasts the likely future of ecosystem services and their socioeconomic impact under different pollution and climate scenarios. We illustrate the framework by applying it to watersheds, and provide system-level approaches that enable natural capital restoration by associating multidecadal biodiversity changes to chemical pollution.

Evolutionary mechanisms underpinning fitness response to multiple stressors in Daphnia.

Multiple stressors linked to anthropogenic activities can influence how organisms adapt and evolve. So far, a consensus on how multiple stressors drive adaptive trajectories in natural populations has not been reached. Some meta-analysis reports show predominance of additive effects of stressors on ecological endpoints (e.g., fecundity, mortality), whereas others show synergistic effects more frequently. Moreover, it is unclear what mechanisms of adaptation underpin responses to complex environments. Here, we use populations of Daphnia magna resurrected from different times in the past to investigate mechanisms of adaptation to multiple stressors and to understand how historical exposure to environmental stress shapes adaptive responses of modern populations. Using common garden experiments on resurrected modern and historical populations, we investigate (1) whether exposure to one stress results in higher tolerance to a second stressor; (2) the mechanisms of adaptation underpinning long-term evolution to multistress (genetic evolution, plasticity, evolution of plasticity); and (3) the interaction effects of multiple stressors on fitness (synergism, antagonism, additivity). We measure the combined impact of different levels of resource availability (algae) and biocides on fitness-linked life-history traits and interpret these results in light of historical environmental exposures. We show that exposure to one stressor can alter tolerance to second stressors and that the interaction effect depends on the severity of either stressor. We also show that mechanisms of adaptation underpinning phenotypic evolution significantly differ in single-stress and multistress scenarios. These adaptive responses are driven largely by synergistic effects on fecundity and size at maturity, and additive effects on age at maturity. Exposure to multiple stressors shifts the trade-offs among fitness-linked life-history traits, with a stronger effect on Daphnia populations when low-resource availability and high biocide levels are experienced. Our study indicates that mitigation interventions based on single-stress analysis may not capture realistic threats.

Eco-Evolutionary Feedbacks and the Maintenance of Metacommunity Diversity in a Changing Environment.

The presence and strength of resource competition can influence how organisms adaptively respond to environmental change. Selection may thus reflect a balance between two forces, adaptation to an environmental optimum and evolution to avoid strong competition. While this phenomenon has previously been explored in the context of single communities, its implications for eco-evolutionary dynamics at the metacommunity scale are largely unknown. We developed a simulation model for the evolution of a quantitative trait that influences both an organism's carrying capacity and its intra- and interspecific competitive ability. In the model, multiple species inhabit a three-patch landscape, and we investigated the effect of varying the connectivity level among patches, the presence and pace of directional environmental change, and the strength of competition between the species. Our model produced some patterns previously observed in evolving metacommunity models, such as species sorting and community monopolization. However, we found that species sorting was diminished even at low rates of dispersal and was influenced by competition strength, and that monopolization was observed only when environmental change was very rapid. We also detected an eco-evolutionary feedback loop between local phenotypic evolution at one site and competition at another site, which maintains species diversity in some conditions. The existence of a feedback loop maintained by dispersal indicates that eco-evolutionary dynamics in communities operate at a landscape scale.

Modeling competition, niche, and coexistence between an invasive and a native species in a two-species metapopulation.

Modeling the dynamics of competition and coexistence between species is crucial to predict long-term impacts of invasive species on their native congeners. However, natural environments are often fragmented and variable in time and space. In such contexts, regional coexistence depends on complex interactions between competition, niche differentiation and stochastic colonization-extinction dynamics. Quantifying all these processes at landscape scale has always been a challenge for ecologists. We propose a new statistical framework to evaluate metapopulation parameters (colonization and extinction) in a two-species system and how they respond to environmental variables and interspecific competition. It requires spatial surveys repeated in time, but does not assume demographic equilibrium. We apply this model to a long-term survey of two snails inhabiting a network of freshwater habitats in the West Indies. We find evidence of reciprocal competition affecting colonization or extinction rates, modulated by species-specific sensitivity to environmental variables. Simulations using model estimates allow us to predict species dynamics and explore the role of various coexistence mechanisms described by metacommunity theory in our system. The two species are predicted to stably coexist, because niche partitioning, source-sink dynamics and interspecific differences in extinction-colonization parameters all contribute to reduce the negative impacts of competition. However, none of these mechanisms is individually essential. Regional coexistence is primarily facilitated by transient co-occurrence of the two species within habitat patches, a possibility generally not considered in theoretical metacommunity models. Our framework is general and could be extended to guilds of several competing species.

Eco-evolutionary partitioning metrics: assessing the importance of ecological and evolutionary contributions to population and community change.

Interest in eco-evolutionary dynamics is rapidly increasing thanks to ground-breaking research indicating that evolution can occur rapidly and can alter the outcome of ecological processes. A key challenge in this sub-discipline is establishing how important the contribution of evolutionary and ecological processes and their interactions are to observed shifts in population and community characteristics. Although a variety of metrics to separate and quantify the effects of evolutionary and ecological contributions to observed trait changes have been used, they often allocate fractions of observed changes to ecology and evolution in different ways. We used a mathematical and numerical comparison of two commonly used frameworks - the Price equation and reaction norms - to reveal that the Price equation cannot partition genetic from non-genetic trait change within lineages, whereas the reaction norm approach cannot partition among- from within-lineage trait change. We developed a new metric that combines the strengths of both Price-based and reaction norm metrics, extended all metrics to analyse community change and also incorporated extinction and colonisation of species in these metrics. Depending on whether our new metric is applied to populations or communities, it can correctly separate intraspecific, interspecific, evolutionary, non-evolutionary and interacting eco-evolutionary contributions to trait change.

Initial genetic diversity enhances population establishment and alters genetic structuring of a newly established Daphnia metapopulation.

When newly created habitats are initially colonized by genotypes with rapid population growth rates, later arriving colonists may be prevented from establishing. Although these priority effects have been documented in multiple systems, their duration may be influenced by the diversity of the founding population. We conducted a large-scale field manipulation to investigate how initial clonal diversity influences temporal and landscape patterns of genetic structure in a developing metapopulation. Six genotypes of obligately asexual Daphnia pulex were stocked alone (no clonal diversity) or in combination ('high' clonal diversity) into newly created experimental woodland ponds. We also measured the population growth rate of all clones in the laboratory when raised on higher-quality and lower-quality resources. Our predictions were that in the 3 years following stocking, clonally diverse populations would be more likely to persist than nonclonally diverse populations and exhibit evidence for persistent founder effects. We expected that faster growing clones would be found in more pools and comprise a greater proportion of individuals genotyped from the landscape. Genetic composition, both locally and regionally, changed significantly following stocking. Six of 27 populations exhibited evidence for persistent founder effects, and populations stocked with 'high' clonal diversity were more likely to exhibit these effects than nonclonally diverse populations. Performance in the laboratory was not predictive of clonal persistence or overall dominance in the field. Hence, we conclude that although laboratory estimates of fitness did not fully explain metapopulation genetic structure, initial clonal diversity did enhance D. pulex population establishment and persistence in this system.

Disentangling the effect of body size and phylogenetic distances on zooplankton top-down control of algae.

A negative consequence of biodiversity loss is reduced rates of ecosystem functions. Phylogenetic-based biodiversity indices have been claimed to provide more accurate predictions of ecosystem functioning than species diversity alone. This approach assumes that the most relevant traits for ecosystem functioning present a phylogenetic signal. Yet, traits-mediating niche partitioning and resource uptake efficiency in animals can be labile. To assess the relative power of a key trait (body size) and phylogeny to predict zooplankton top-down control on phytoplankton, we manipulated trait and phylogenetic distances independently in microcosms while holding species richness constant. We found that body size provided strong predictions of top-down control. In contrast, phylogeny was a poor predictor of grazing rates. Size-related grazing efficiency asymmetry was mechanistically more important than niche differences in mediating ecosystem function in our experimental settings. Our study demonstrates a strong link between a single functional trait (i.e. body size) in zooplankton and trophic interactions, and urges for a cautionary use of phylogenetic information and taxonomic diversity as substitutes for trait information to predict and understand ecosystem functions.

Rapid local adaptation mediates zooplankton community assembly in experimental mesocosms.

Adaptive evolution can occur over similar timescales as ecological processes such as community assembly, but its particular effects on community assembly and structure and their magnitude are poorly understood. In experimental evolution trials, Daphnia magna were exposed to varying environments (presence and absence of fish and artificial macrophytes) for 2 months. Then, in a common gardening experiment, we compared zooplankton community composition when either experimentally adapted or D. magna from the original population were present. Local adaptation of D. magna significantly altered zooplankton community composition, leading to a suppression of abundances for some zooplankton taxa and facilitation for others. The effect size of D. magna adaptation was similar to that of adding fish or macrophytes to mesocosms, two important drivers of zooplankton community structure. Our results suggest that substantial amounts of variation in community composition in natural systems may be unexplained if evolutionary dynamics are ignored.

Population differentiation in Daphnia alters community assembly in experimental ponds.

Most studies of community assembly ignore how genetic differentiation within species affects their colonization and extinction. However, genetic differentiation in ecologically relevant traits may be substantial enough to alter the colonization and extinction processes that drive community assembly. We measured significant molecular genetic and quantitative trait differentiation among three Daphnia pulex × pulicaria populations in southwestern Michigan ponds and investigated whether this differentiation could alter the assembly of pond zooplankton communities in experimental mesocosms. In this study, we monitored the invasion success of different D. pulex × pulicaria populations after their introduction into an established zooplankton community. We also monitored the invasion success of a diverse array of zooplankton species into different D. pulex × pulicaria populations. Zooplankton community composition depended on the D. pulex × pulicaria source population. Daphnia pulex × pulicaria from one population failed to invade zooplankton communities, while those from other populations successfully invaded similar communities. If population differentiation in other species plays a role in community assembly similar to that demonstrated in our study, assembly may be more sensitive to evolutionary processes than has been previously generally considered.

Consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of predators on metacommunities of competing prey.

Although predators affect prey both via consumption and by changing prey migration behavior, the interplay between these two effects is rarely incorporated into spatial models of predator-prey dynamics and competition among prey. We develop a model where generalist predators have consumptive effects (i.e., altering the likelihood of local prey extinction) as well as nonconsumptive effects (altering the likelihood of colonization) on spatially separated prey populations (metapopulations). We then extend this model to explore the effects of predators on competition among prey. We find that generalist predators can promote persistence of prey metapopulations by promoting prey colonization, but predators can also hasten system-wide extinction by either increasing local extinction or reducing prey migration. By altering rates of prey migration, predators in one location can exert remote control over prey dynamics in another location via predator-mediated changes in prey flux. Thus, the effect of predators may extend well beyond the proportion of patches they visit. In the context of prey metacommunities, predator-mediated shifts in prey migration and mortality can shift the competition-colonization trade-off among competing prey, leading to changes in the prey community as well as changes in the susceptibility of prey species to habitat loss. Consequently, native prey communities may be susceptible to invasion not only by exotic prey species that experience reduced amounts of mortality from resident predators, but also by exotic prey species that exhibit strong dispersal in response to generalist native predators. Ultimately, our work suggests that the consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of generalist predators may have strong, yet potentially cryptic, effects on competing prey capable of mediating coexistence, fostering invasion, and interacting with anthropogenic habitat alteration.

The evolutionary ecology of metacommunities.

Research on the interactions between evolutionary and ecological dynamics has largely focused on local spatial scales and on relatively simple ecological communities. However, recent work demonstrates that dispersal can drastically alter the interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics, often in unexpected ways. We argue that a dispersal-centered synthesis of metacommunity ecology and evolution is necessary to make further progress in this important area of research. We demonstrate that such an approach generates several novel outcomes and substantially enhances understanding of both ecological and evolutionary phenomena in three core research areas at the interface of ecology and evolution.