Impact of Embedding a Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment Model in the Electronic Health Record Versus Usual Care: A Cluster-Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: There are multiple risk assessment models (RAMs) for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis, but it is unknown whether they increase appropriate prophylaxis. METHODS: To determine the impact of a RAM embedded in the electronic health record, we conducted a stepped-wedge hospital-level cluster-randomized trial conducted from October 1, 2017 to February 28, 2019 at 10 Cleveland Clinic hospitals. We included consecutive general medical patients aged 18 years or older. Patients were excluded if they had a contraindication to prophylaxis, including anticoagulation for another condition, acute bleeding, or comfort-only care. A RAM was embedded in the general admission order set and physicians were encouraged to use it. The decisions to use the RAM and act on the results were reserved to the treating physician. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients receiving appropriate prophylaxis (high-risk patients with pharmacological thromboprophylaxis plus low-risk patients without prophylaxis) within 48 hours of hospitalization. Secondary outcomes included total patients receiving prophylaxis, venous thromboembolism among high-risk patients at 14 and 45 days, major bleeding, heparin-induced thrombocytopenia, and length of stay. Mixed-effects models were used to analyze the study outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 26 506 patients (mean age, 61; 52% female; 73% White) were analyzed, including 11 134 before and 15 406 after implementation of the RAM. After implementation, the RAM was used for 24% of patients, and the percentage of patients receiving appropriate prophylaxis increased from 43.1% to 48.8% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.11 [1.00-1.23]), while overall prophylaxis use decreased from 73.5% to 65.2% (adjusted odds ratio, 0.87 [0.78-0.97]). Rates of venous thromboembolism among high-risk patients (adjusted odds ratio, 0.72 [0.38-1.36]), rates of bleeding and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (adjusted odds ratio, 0.19 [0.02-1.47]), and length of stay were unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a RAM for venous thromboembolism increased appropriate prophylaxis use, but the RAM was used for a minority of patients. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03243708?term=nct03243708&rank=1; Unique identifier: NCT03243708.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of cardiac stress testing before major noncardiac surgery-A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the incremental contribution of preoperative stress test results toward a diagnosis of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), prediction of mortality, or prediction of perioperative myocardial infarction in patients considering noncardiac, nonophthalmologic surgery. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective cohort study of visits to a preoperative risk assessment and optimization clinic in a large health system between 2008 and 2018. MEASUREMENTS: To assess diagnostic information of preoperative stress testing, we used the Begg and Greenes method to calculate test characteristics adjusted for referral bias, with a gold standard of angiography. To assess prognostic information, we first created multiply-imputed logistic regression models to predict 90-day mortality and perioperative myocardial infarction (MI), starting with two tools commonly used to assess perioperative cardiac risk, Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest (MICA). We then added stress test results and compared the discrimination for models with and without stress test results. MAIN RESULTS: Among 136,935 visits by patients without an existing diagnosis of CAD, the decision to obtain preoperative stress testing identified around 4.0% of likely new diagnoses. Stress testing increased the likelihood of CAD (likelihood ratio: 1.31), but for over 99% of patients, stress testing should not change a decision on whether to proceed to angiography. In 117,445 visits with subsequent noncardiac surgery, stress test results failed to improve predictions of either perioperative MI or 90-day mortality. Reweighting the models and adding hemoglobin improved the prediction of both outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac stress testing before noncardiac, nonophthalmologic surgery does not improve predictions of either perioperative mortality or myocardial infarction. Very few patients considering noncardiac, nonophthalmologic surgery have a pretest probability of CAD in a range where stress testing could usefully select patients for angiography. Better use of existing patient data could improve predictions of perioperative adverse events without additional patient testing.

Consequences of preoperative cardiac stress testing-A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the consequences of functional cardiac stress testing among patients considering noncardiac nonophthalmologic surgery. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of 118,552 patients who made 159,795 visits to a dedicated preoperative risk assessment and optimization clinic between 2008 and 2018. SETTING: A large integrated health system. PATIENTS: Patients who visited a dedicated preoperative risk assessment and optimization clinic before noncardiac nonophthalmologic surgery. MEASUREMENTS: To assess changes to care delivered, we measured the probability of completing additional cardiac testing, cardiac surgery, or noncardiac surgery. To assess outcomes, we measured time-to-mortality and total one-year mortality. MAIN RESULTS: In causal inference models, preoperative stress testing was associated with increased likelihood of coronary angiography (relative risk: 8.6, 95% CI 6.1-12.1), increased likelihood of percutaneous coronary intervention (RR: 4.1, 95% CI: 1.8-9.2), increased likelihood of cardiac surgery (RR: 6.8, 95% CI 4.9-9.4), decreased likelihood of noncardiac surgery (RR: 0.77, 95% CI 0.75-0.79), and delayed noncardiac surgery for patients completing noncardiac surgery (mean 28.3 days, 95% CI: 23.1-33.6). The base rate of downstream cardiac testing was low, and absolute risk increases were small. Stress testing was associated with higher mortality in unadjusted analysis but was not associated with mortality in causal inference analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative cardiac stress testing likely induces coronary angiography and cardiac interventions while decreasing use of noncardiac surgery and delaying surgery for patients who ultimately proceed to noncardiac surgery. Despite changes to processes of care, our results do not support a causal relationship between stress testing and postoperative mortality. Analyses of care cascades should consider care that is avoided or substituted in addition to care that is induced.

State of research in adult Hospital Medicine: Updated results of a national survey and longitudinal analysis of national data.

We sought to understand the current state of research in adult Hospital Medicine by repeating a 2018 survey of leaders in Hospital Medicine with changes to improve the response rate of surveyed programs. We also analyzed the public sources of federal research funding and MEDLINE-indexed publications from 2010 through 2019 among members of the Society of Hospital Medicine (SHM). Of the 102 contacted leaders of Hospital Medicine groups across the country, 49 responded, for a total response rate of 48%. Among the 3397 faculty members represented in responding programs, 72 (2%) of faculty were identified as conducting research for more than 50% of their time. Respondents noted difficulties at every stage of the research development pipeline, from a lack of mentors to running a fellowship program to a lack of applicants seeking further research training. Improvements to our research training pipeline will be essential to the long-term improvement of our profession.

Relationship Between Oral Temperature and Bacteremia in Hospitalized Patients.

BACKGROUND: Early recognition and treatment of bacteremia can be lifesaving. Fever is a well-known marker of bacteremia, but the predictive value of temperature has not been fully explored. OBJECTIVE: To describe temperature as a predictor of bacteremia and other infections. DESIGN: Retrospective review of electronic health record data. SETTING: A single healthcare system comprising 13 hospitals in the United States. PATIENTS: Adult medical patients admitted in 2017 or 2018 without malignancy or immunosuppression. MAIN MEASURES: Maximum temperature, bacteremia, influenza and skin and soft tissue (SSTI) infections based on blood cultures and ICD-10 coding. KEY RESULTS: Of 97,174 patients, 1,518 (1.6%) had bacteremia, 1,392 (1.4%) had influenza, and 3,280 (3.3%) had an SSTI. There was no identifiable temperature threshold that provided adequate sensitivity and specificity for bacteremia. Only 45% of patients with bacteremia had a maximum temperature ≥ 100.4˚F (38˚C). Temperature showed a U-shaped relationship with bacteremia with highest risk above 103˚F (39.4˚C). Positive likelihood ratios for influenza and SSTI also increased with temperature but showed a threshold effect at ≥ 101.0 ˚F (38.3˚C). The effect of temperature was similar but blunted for patients aged ≥ 65 years, who frequently lacked fever despite bacteremia. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of bacteremic patients had maximum temperatures below 100.4 ˚F (38.0˚C) and positive likelihood ratios for bacteremia increased with high temperatures above the traditional definition of fever. Efforts to predict bacteremia should incorporate temperature as a continuous variable.

Estimating the costs of physician turnover in hospital medicine.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Costs of physician turnover are lacking for specialties organized around a site of care. We sought to estimate the cost of physician turnover in adult hospital medicine (HM). DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective cohort study within a large integrated health system between July 2017 and June 2020. To understand likely variation across the country, we also simulated costs using national wage data and a range of assumptions. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: Direct costs of turnover borne by our department and institution and indirect costs from reduced hospital billing. In our simulation, we measured costs per hired hospitalist. RESULTS: Between July 2017 and June 2020, 34 hospitalists left the practice, 97 hospitalists were hired, and a total of 234 hospitalists provided adult care at six hospitals. Direct costs of turnover totaled $6166 per incoming physician. Additional clinical coverage required at times of transition was the largest expense, followed by physician time recruiting and interviewing prospective candidates. The salary difference between outgoing and incoming hospitalists was cost-saving, while reduced billing would add to indirect costs per hire. In our simulation using national wage data, programs hiring one hospitalist would spend a mean of $56,943 (95% CI: $27,228-$86,659), programs hiring five hospitalists would spend a mean of $33,333 per hospitalist (95% CI: $9375-$57,292), and programs hiring 10 hospitalists would spend a mean of $30,382 per hospitalist (95% CI: $6877-$53,887). CONCLUSIONS: The financial cost of turnover in HM appears to be substantially lower than earlier estimates of the cost of turnover from non-hospitalist specialties.

Volume and Outcomes of Joint Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Joint arthroplasties are among the most commonly performed elective surgeries in the United States. Surgical outcomes are known to improve with volume but it is unclear whether this has led to consolidation among elective surgeries. We examined trends in volumes per surgeon and hospital to assess whether the known volume-outcome relationship has led to consolidation in elective joint arthroplasty and to determine if there exist volume thresholds above which outcomes do not change. METHODS: Among Medicare beneficiaries who underwent either total knee or total hip arthroplasty from 2009 through 2015, we described volume trends and used mixed-effect models to relate annual surgeon and hospital volumes with 30-day complications or mortality. We tested for optimal volume cut points at both the hospital and surgeon level. RESULTS: Adjusted annual complication rates were inversely associated with volume for both procedures at both the surgeon level and hospital level, but there was minimal consolidation between 2009 and 2015. Complications no longer declined after volumes of each case exceeded 260 per year. The vast majority of cases (around 93% of hip and 88% of knee arthroplasties) were performed by surgeons operating at suboptimal volumes. CONCLUSION: More than 2 decades after the volume-outcome relationship was established for joint arthroplasty, many cases continue to be performed by low-volume surgeons, with far more cases performed by surgeons operating at suboptimal volumes. Further improvement could be expected through consolidation at both the hospital and surgeon level, with a target of at least 260 cases per surgeon annually for each operation. Payers seem best-equipped to drive consolidation.

Prescribing of anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation in primary care.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in primary care patients. Many patients who could benefit from anticoagulation do not receive it. The objective of this study was to describe anticoagulation prescribing by primary care physicians. We conducted an observational study in the Cleveland Clinic Health System among patients with AF and ≥ 1 primary care appointment between 2015 and 2018 and their physicians. We estimated differences in the odds of an eligible patient receiving anticoagulation versus not and a DOAC versus warfarin using two mixed effects logistic regression models, adjusted for patient sociodemographic factors, history of falls or dementia, and CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores. We categorized physicians into prescribing tertiles, based on their adjusted prescribing rate, which we included as predictors in the models. Among 5253 patients, 47% received anticoagulation. Of those, 56% received a DOAC. CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores were not associated with anticoagulation prescription. Black race was negatively associated with receiving anticoagulation overall (aOR:0.71; 95%CI:0.56-0.89) and with prescription for a DOAC (aOR:0.65; 95%CI:0.45-0.93). Among 195 physicians, the anticoagulation prescribing rate ranged from 27% to 57% and DOAC rates ranged from 34% to 69%. Physician prescribing tertile was associated with odds of a patient receiving anticoagulation overall (aOR:1.51; 95%CI: 1.13-2.01 for the highest versus lowest tertile), but not DOAC prescriptions. When prescribing anticoagulation, physicians appear not to consider risk of stroke or bleeding but patient race is an important determinant. Seeing a physician with a high anticoagulation prescribing rate was strongly associated with a patient receiving it, suggesting a lack of individualization.

Variation in preoperative stress testing by patient, physician and surgical type: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe variation in and drivers of contemporary preoperative cardiac stress testing. SETTING: A dedicated preoperative risk assessment and optimisation clinic at a large integrated medical centre from 2008 through 2018. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 118 552 adult patients seen by 104 physicians across 159 795 visits to a preoperative risk assessment and optimisation clinic. MAIN OUTCOME: Referral for stress testing before major surgery, including nuclear, echocardiographic or electrocardiographic-only stress testing, within 30 days after a clinic visit. RESULTS: A total of 8303 visits (5.2%) resulted in referral for preoperative stress testing. Key patient factors associated with preoperative stress testing included predicted surgical risk, patient functional status, a previous diagnosis of ischaemic heart disease, tobacco use and body mass index. Patients living in either the most-deprived or least-deprived census block groups were more likely to be tested. Patients were tested more frequently before aortic, peripheral vascular or urologic interventions than before other surgical subcategories. Even after fully adjusting for patient and surgical factors, provider effects remained important: marginal testing rates differed by a factor-of-three in relative terms and around 2.5% in absolute terms between the 5th and 95th percentile physicians. Stress testing frequency decreased over the time period; controlling for patient and physician predictors, a visit in 2008 would have resulted in stress testing approximately 3.5% of the time, while a visit in 2018 would have resulted in stress testing approximately 1.3% of the time. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of patients seen for preoperative risk assessment at a single health system, decisions to refer patients for preoperative stress testing are influenced by various factors other than estimated perioperative risk and functional status, the key considerations in current guidelines. The frequency of preoperative stress testing has decreased over time, but remains highly provider-dependent.

Analyzing the Proliferation of Social Media Use Among Orthopaedic Surgery Residency Programs.

Social media can influence how students and residents learn about and select graduate medical education programs. COVID-19-related travel restrictions forced residencies to adapt their recruitment strategies. The objective of our investigation was to characterize the prevalence of social media use by orthopaedic surgery residency programs and to examine any change over time before the COVID-19 pandemic and leading up to the 2020 to 2021 virtual interview season. METHODS: The Fellowship and Residency Electronic Interactive Database was queried for all orthopaedic surgery residency programs (N = 164). We performed a cross-sectional analysis on the use of Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram by orthopaedic surgery residency programs in May 2019, July 2020, and November 2020. Orthopaedic surgery residency programs were systematically identified on each of the social media platforms. Descriptive statistics were used to facilitate comparisons between the time points. RESULTS: Seventy-six social media accounts were identified in May 2019 compared with 239 in November 2020-a greater than 300% increase in 19 months. The prevalence of residency programs using Facebook increased from 21.3% in May 2019 to 30.5% in July 2020 to 36.0% in November 2020. Similar increases in prevalence were identified for Twitter (15.2%-31.7% then 43.9%) and Instagram (9.1% to 37.2% to 65.9%). In May 2019, we identified 35 programs with Facebook accounts, 26 with Twitter accounts, and 15 with Instagram accounts. By November 2020, this increased to 59 Facebook accounts, 72 Twitter accounts, and 108 Instagram accounts. This corresponds to an expansion in the use of each platform by 69%, 177%, and 620% for Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The use of social media by academic orthopaedic surgery residency programs increased substantially over the study period. The adoption of Instagram seems to be occurring at the fastest rate. Social media may represent a useful tool in resident recruitment, but the platform must be carefully selected and planned to avoid unintended dilemmas.

Keys to diagnosis and management of spinal epidural abscesses: 9 years of institutional experience.

OBJECTIVE: Spinal epidural abscesses (SEA's) are a challenge to diagnose, particularly if there are non-contiguous (skip) lesions. There is also limited data to predict which patients can be treated with antibiotics alone and which require surgery. We sought to assess which demographics, clinical and laboratory findings can guide both diagnosis and management of SEA's. METHODS: All patients with SEA (ICD9 324.1, ICD10 G06.1) between April 2011-May 2019 at a single tertiary center were included. A retrospective EMR review was completed. Patient and disease characteristics were compared using appropriate statistical tests. RESULTS: 108 patients underwent initial surgical treatment versus 105 that were treated medically initially; 22 (21 %) of those failed medical management. Patients who failed medical management had significantly higher CRP, longer symptom duration, and had higher rates of concurrent non-spinal infections. 9% of patients had skip lesions. Patients with skip lesions had significantly higher WBC, ESR, as well as higher rates of bacteremia and concurrent non-spinal infections. Demographic characteristics and proportion with IVDU, smoking, malignancy, and immunosuppression were similar among the three treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: 21 % of SEA patients failed initial medical management; they had significantly greater CRP, longer symptom duration, more commonly had neurologic deficits, and concurrent non-spinal infections. 9% of patients had skip lesions; they had significantly higher WBC, ESR, rates of bacteremia and infections outside the spine. These variables may guide diagnostic imaging, and identify those at risk of failing of medical management, and therefore require more involved clinical evaluation, and consideration for surgical intervention.

The relationship between the follow-up to discharge ratio and length of stay.

OBJECTIVES: Average length of stay (ALOS) is used as a measure of the effectiveness of care delivery and therefore is an important operational measure when evaluating both the hospitalist group and individual hospitalist performance. No metric within the control of the individual hospitalist has been identified to support the individual hospitalist's contribution to the hospitalist group's ALOS goals. This study's objective was to evaluate the correlation between the follow-up to discharge ratio (F:D ratio) and ALOS and assess the relationship between F:D ratio and hospitalist experience. STUDY DESIGN: We systematically evaluated the relationship between hospitalist-level billing data for daily inpatient follow-up encounters and discharge visits (F:D ratio) and the attributed ALOS across consecutive hospitalist encounters at a tertiary care center. RESULTS: Over the study period of 10 quarters from 2017 to 2019, there were 103,080 follow-up or discharge inpatient encounters. The mean (SD) provider F:D ratio and ALOS were 3.94 (0.36) and 4.45 (0.24) days, respectively. The mean (SD) case mix index (CMI) was 1.68 (0.04). There was a strong linear relationship between the F:D ratio and both ALOS and CMI-adjusted ALOS (r = 0.807; P = .014; and r = 0.814; P = .001, respectively). The mean (SD) F:D ratio for hospitalists with 1 year or less of experience compared with those with more than 1 year of experience was 4.23 (0.80) vs 3.88 (0.39), respectively (P = .012). CONCLUSIONS: A strong linear relationship exists between the F:D ratio and ALOS. Additionally, the F:D ratio improves with experience. Provider-level billing data applied as the F:D ratio can be used as a hospitalist management and assessment tool.

How Are We Measuring Cost-Effectiveness in Total Joint Arthroplasty Studies? Systematic Review of the Literature.

BACKGROUND: As volumes of total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) continue to rise, it is important to understand their economic impact. No systematic review on cost-effectiveness of THA/TKA has been performed since 2016 despite recent changes in the healthcare environment. The purpose of the study is to provide a contemporary analysis of the cost-effectiveness of total joint arthroplasty and the use of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). METHODS: A systematic review was performed from 2005 to 2020. Online databases (OVID Medline, PubMed, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, Google Scholar, Elton B. Stephens Co) were queried to identify economic analyses that evaluated the cost-effectiveness of THA/TKA. RESULTS: In total, 38 studies met the screening criteria. Study designs were primarily Markov models (68%), cohort studies (16%), and randomized trials (8%). Most studies adopted either a societal perspective (45%) or a health system perspective (39%). Analysis revealed that THA/TKA was strongly cost-effective compared to nonsurgical treatment. THA/TKA procedures that were not delayed were more cost-effective than delayed intervention. The majority of studies used QALYs as the primary quality metric (82%); in all these studies there was a significant improvement in QALYs gained. CONCLUSION: Given the high economic impact of arthroplasty, ongoing assessment of cost-effectiveness is needed. Twenty-four percent of studies included in this systematic review were published in the last 4 years of this 15-year study period, highlighting the need for continuous assessment of aggregate data. Future studies should incorporate the cost-effectiveness of THA and TKA with respect to the work-value provided by surgeon providers to support health policy and reimbursement.

Net clinical benefit of anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation following intracerebral hemorrhage.

Following an anticoagulation-associated intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), whether and when to resume anticoagulation is controversial. Patient-level recurrence risk is difficult to predict with accuracy, but time-based recurrence risk may be more predictable. To better inform clinical decisions, we set out to estimate the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation over time among patients with atrial fibrillation. Using a large administrative dataset with 5339 index ICH hospitalizations and 132 readmissions for ICH, we created a two-stage prediction model, first predicting patient-level risk of recurrence and then predicting timing, conditional on recurrence. A log-normal survival function best explained the declining risk of recurrent ICH over time. We then compared risk of recurrent ICH over time against ischemic stroke risk, weighting the two outcomes to compute the net clinical benefit on each day following an index discharge. Using a bootstrapping approach, we identified the first day following discharge on which anticoagulation would lead to net benefit rather than net harm. Anticoagulation remains harmful for at least 11 days following index discharge and, depending on desired confidence level and assumptions, may remain harmful for as long as 62 days after discharge. Results were sensitive to the overall ICH recurrence risk. Although patient-level risk of recurrent ICH is difficult to predict accurately, recurrence risk declines rapidly over time. The survival function presented herein can inform decision-analytic models regarding when patients should resume anticoagulation following ICH.

Resuming Anticoagulation following Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding among Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation-A Microsimulation Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) who have sustained an upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB), the benefits and harms of oral anticoagulation change over time. Early resumption of anticoagulation increases recurrent bleeding, while delayed resumption exposes patients to a higher risk of ischemic stroke. We therefore set out to estimate the expected benefit of resuming anticoagulation as a function of time after UGIB among patients with NVAF. METHODS: We created a decision-analytic model estimating discounted quality-adjusted life-years when patients with NVAF resume anticoagulation on each day following UGIB. We simulated from a health system perspective over a lifelong time horizon. RESULTS: Peak utility for warfarin was achieved by resumption 41 days after hemostasis from the index UGIB. Resumption between days 32 and 51 produced greater than 99.9% of the peak utility. Peak utility for apixaban was achieved by resumption 32 days after the index UGIB. Resumption between days 21 and 47 produced greater than 99.9% of the peak utility. Of input parameters, results were most sensitive to underlying stroke risk. Specifically, across the range of CHA2DS2-Vasc scores, the optimal day of resumption varied by around 11 days for patients resuming warfarin and by around 15 days for patients resuming apixaban. Results were less sensitive to underlying risk of rebleeding. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with NVAF following UGIB, warfarin is optimally restarted approximately six weeks following hemostasis, and apixaban is optimally restarted approximately one month following hemostasis. Modest changes to this timing based on probability of thromboembolic stroke are reasonable.

Cost-Effectiveness of Bridging Anticoagulation Among Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Bridging anticoagulation is commonly prescribed to patients with atrial fibrillation during initiation and interruption of warfarin. Guidelines recommend bridging patients at high risk of stroke, while a recent randomized trial demonstrated overall harm in a population at comparatively low risk of ischemic stroke. Theory suggests that patients at high risk of stroke and low risk of hemorrhage may benefit from bridging, but data informing patient selection are scant. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the utility and cost-effectiveness of bridging anticoagulation among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, stratified by thromboembolic and hemorrhagic risk DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis with lifelong time horizon, from the perspective of a third-party payer MAIN MEASURES: Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per bridged patient; US dollars per QALY gained KEY RESULTS: Unselected patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation may be harmed by bridging anticoagulation. Hospital admission for bridging is almost never cost-effective, and generally harmful. Among patients carefully selected by both thromboembolic and hemorrhagic risks, outpatient bridging can be beneficial and cost-effective. Results were sensitive to how effectively heparin products reduce stroke risk. CONCLUSIONS: Outpatient bridging anticoagulation can be beneficial and cost-effective for a subset of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation during interruption or initiation of warfarin. Admission for bridging should be avoided.

Anticipated Rates and Costs of Guideline-Concordant Preoperative Stress Testing.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend that patients have preoperative assessment of cardiac risk and functional status, and that patients at "elevated" cardiac risk with poor or unknown functional status be referred for preoperative stress testing. Little is known about current rates of testing or resultant medical costs. We set out to estimate the expected rates of preoperative stress testing and resultant costs if physicians in the United States were to follow current guidelines and to investigate differences that would arise from 2 risk prediction methods included in current guidelines. METHODS: We applied 2 risk prediction tools (Revised Cardiac Risk Index and Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest) included in current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines to a multicenter prospective registry of patients undergoing surgery in the United States in 2009. We then calculated expected rates of preoperative cardiac stress testing if physicians were to follow American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines, expected nationwide direct medical expenditures that would result (in 2017 US dollars), and agreement beyond chance between the 2 risk prediction tools. RESULTS: Current guidelines recommend considerable spending on preoperative stress testing. Guideline-recommended spending would differ substantially depending on the risk prediction tool used and the reliability of the functional status assessment. Rates of testing and resultant spending are likely much greater among patients at "elevated" risk, compared with patients at "low" risk. Two guideline-recommended risk assessment tools, Revised Cardiac Risk Index and Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest, have poor agreement beyond chance across the currently recommended risk threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative stress testing is likely a considerable source of medical spending, despite unproven benefit. Which perioperative risk assessment tool clinicians should use, what risk thresholds are appropriate for patient selection, and the reliability of the functional status assessment all warrant further attention.