An entry risk assessment of African horse sickness virus into the controlled area of South Africa through the legal movement of equids.

South Africa is endemic for African horse sickness (AHS), an important health and trade-sensitive disease of equids. The country is zoned with movement control measures facilitating an AHS-free controlled area in the south-west. Our objective was to quantitatively establish the risk of entry of AHS virus into the AHS controlled area through the legal movement of horses. Outcomes were subcategorised to evaluate movement pathway, temporal, and spatial differences in risk. A 'no-control' scenario allowed for evaluation of the impact of control measures. Using 2019 movement and AHS case data, and country-wide census data, a stochastic model was developed establishing local municipality level entry risk of AHSV at monthly intervals. These were aggregated to annual probability of entry. Sensitivity analysis evaluated model variables on their impact on the conditional means of the probability of entry. The median monthly probability of entry of AHSV into the controlled area of South Africa ranged from 0.75% (June) to 5.73% (February), with the annual median probability of entry estimated at 20.21% (95% CI: 15.89%-28.89%). The annual risk of AHSV entry compared well with the annual probability of introduction of AHS into the controlled area, which is ~10% based on the last 20 years of outbreak data. Direct non-quarantine movements made up most movements and accounted for most of the risk of entry. Spatial analysis showed that, even though reported case totals were zero throughout 2019 in the Western Cape, horses originating from this province still pose a risk that should not be ignored. Control measures decrease risk by a factor of 2.8 on an annual basis. Not only do the outcomes of this study inform domestic control, they can also be used for scientifically justified trade decision making, since in-country movement control forms a key component of export protocols.

Impact of a peer-delivered telephone intervention for women experiencing a breast cancer recurrence.

PURPOSE: A first breast cancer recurrence creates considerable distress, yet few psychosocial interventions directed at this population have been reported. The Southwest Oncology Group conducted a phase III randomized trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a brief telephone intervention. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred five women experiencing a first recurrence of breast cancer were randomly assigned to standard care or intervention. The intervention consisted of four to eight telephone calls delivered over a 1-month period. The calls were conducted by trained peer counselors at a breast cancer advocacy organization, the Y-ME National Breast Cancer Organization, and followed a standard curriculum. Psychosocial distress (Cancer Rehabilitation Evaluation System-Short Form [CARES-SF]) and depressive symptoms (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale [CES-D]) outcomes were assessed at baseline and 3 and 6 months. The 3-month assessment was the primary end point and is the focus of this article. RESULTS: Analysis revealed no differences in distress or depressive symptoms at 3 months between the intervention and control groups; at 3 months, 70% of control patients and 66% of intervention patients reported psychosocial distress, and 40% of control patients and 47% of intervention patients exhibited depressive symptoms. CONCLUSION: Telephone peer counseling did not lead to better psychosocial outcomes. The persistent distress in these women supports the urgent need for the development and testing of more intensive or different supportive interventions for this group of patients.