ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Certain widely used pathological outcome prediction models that were developed in tertiary centers tend to overpredict outcomes in the community setting; thus, the Michigan Urological-Surgery Improvement Collaborative (MUSIC) model was developed in general urology practice to address this issue. Additionally, the development of these models involved a relatively small proportion of Black men, potentially compromising the accuracy of predictions in this patient group. We tested the validity of the MUSIC and three widely used nomograms to compare their overall and race-stratified predictive performance. METHODS: We extracted data from 4139 (1138 Black) men from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database of the Veterans Affairs health system. The predictive performance of the MUSIC model was compared to the Memorial-Sloan Kettering (MSK), Briganti-2012, and Partin-2017 models for predicting lymph-node invasion (LNI), extra-prostatic extension (EPE), and seminal vesicle invasion (SVI). RESULTS: The median PSA of Black men was higher than White men (7.8 vs. 6.8 ng/ml), although they were younger by a median of three years and presented at a lower-stage disease. MUSIC model showed comparable discriminatory capacity (AUC:77.0%) compared to MSK (79.2%), Partin-2017 (74.6%), and Briganti-2012 (76.3%), with better calibration for LNI. AUCs for EPE and SVI were 72.7% and 76.9%, respectively, all comparable to the MSK and Partin models. LNI AUCs for Black and White men were 69.6% and 79.6%, respectively, while EPE and SVI AUCs were comparable between races. EPE and LNI had worse calibration in Black men. Decision curve analysis showed MUSIC superiority over the MSK model in predicting LNI, especially among Black men. CONCLUSION: Although the discriminatory performance of all models was comparable for each outcome, the MUSIC model exhibited superior net benefit to the MSK model in predicting LNI outcomes among Black men in the SEARCH population.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Prior studies suggest that white light cystoscopy (WLC) alone can fail to detect cases of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) vs. blue light cystoscopy (BLC). We describe bladder cancer outcomes and the impact of BLC among NMIBC patients in an equal access setting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We assessed 378 NMIBC patients within the Veterans Affairs system that had a CPT code for BLC from December 1, 2014 to December 31, 2020. We determined recurrence rates and time to recurrence prior to BLC (ie, after previous WLC if available) and following BLC. We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate event-free survival and Cox regression to determine association between BLC and recurrence, progression, and overall survival; and further, whether these outcomes differed by race. RESULTS: Of 378 patients with complete data, 43 (11%) were Black and 300 (79%) White. Median follow-up was 40.7 months from bladder cancer diagnosis. Median time to first recurrence following BLC was longer vs. WLC alone (40 [33-NE] vs. 26 [17-39] months). Recurrence risk was significantly lower following BLC (Hazard Ratio [HR] 0.70; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 0.54-0.90). There was no significant difference in recurrence (HR 0.69; 95% CI, 0.39-1.20), progression (HR 1.13; 95% CI, 0.32-3.96), and overall survival (HR 0.74; 95% CI, 0.31-1.77) following BLC by Black vs. White race. CONCLUSION: In this study from an equal access setting in the VA, we observed significantly decreased recurrence risk and prolonged time interval to recurrence following BLC vs. WLC alone. There was no difference in bladder cancer outcomes by race.
