Protocol for the process evaluation of an intervention to improve antenatal smoking cessation support (MOHMQuit) in maternity services in New South Wales, Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking cessation in pregnancy remains a public health priority. Our team used the Behaviour Change Wheel to develop the Midwives and Obstetricians Helping Mothers to Quit smoking (MOHMQuit) intervention with health system, leader (including managers and educators) and clinician components. MOHMQuit addresses a critical evidence to practice gap in the provision of smoking cessation support in antenatal care. It involves nine maternity services in New South Wales in a cluster randomised stepped-wedge controlled trial of effectiveness. This paper describes the design and rationale for the process evaluation of MOHMQuit. The process evaluation aims to assess to what extent and how MOHMQuit is being implemented (acceptability; adoption/uptake; appropriateness; feasibility; fidelity; penetration and sustainability), and the context in which it is implemented, in order to support further refinement of MOHMQuit throughout the trial, and aid understanding and interpretation of the results of the trial. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The process evaluation is an integral part of the stepped-wedge trial. Its design is underpinned by implementation science frameworks and adopts a mixed methods approach. Quantitative evidence from participating leaders and clinicians in our study will be used to produce individual and site-level descriptive statistics. Qualitative evidence of leaders' perceptions about the implementation will be collected using semistructured interviews and will be analysed descriptively within-site and thematically across the dataset. The process evaluation will also use publicly available data and observations from the research team implementing MOHMQuit, for example, training logs. These data will be synthesised to provide site-level as well as individual-level implementation outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study received ethical approval from the Population Health Services Research Ethics Committee for NSW, Australia (Reference 2021/ETH00887). Results will be communicated via the study's steering committee and will also be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Trials Registry ACTRN12622000167763. https://www.australianclinicaltrials.gov.au/anzctr/trial/ACTRN12622000167763.

Study protocol of an economic evaluation embedded in the Midwives and Obstetricians Helping Mothers to Quit Smoking (MOHMQuit) trial.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking during pregnancy is the most important preventable risk factor for pregnancy complications and adverse birth outcomes and can have lifelong consequences for infants. Smoking during pregnancy is associated with higher healthcare costs related to birth complications and during childhood. Psychosocial interventions to support pregnant women to quit are effective, yet provision of smoking cessation support has been inconsistent. The Midwives and Obstetricians Helping Mothers to Quit Smoking (MOHMQuit) intervention provides systems change, and leadership and clinician elements, to support clinicians to help women stop smoking in pregnancy. There have been few long-term analyses conducted of the cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions for pregnant women that target healthcare providers. This protocol describes the economic evaluation of the MOHMQuit trial, a pragmatic stepped-wedge cluster-randomised controlled implementation trial in nine public maternity services in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, to ascertain whether MOHMQuit is cost-effective in supporting clinicians to help women quit smoking in pregnancy compared to usual care. METHODS: Two primary analyses will be carried out comparing MOHMQuit with usual care from an Australian health care system perspective: i) a within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis with results presented as the incremental cost per additional quitter; and ii) a lifetime cost-utility analysis using a published probabilistic decision analytic Markov model with results presented as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for mother and child. Patient-level data on resource use and outcomes will be used in the within-trial analysis and extrapolated and supplemented with national population statistics and published data from the literature for the lifetime analysis. DISCUSSION: There is increasing demand for information on the cost-effectiveness of implementing healthcare interventions to provide policy makers with critical information for the best value for money within finite budgets. Economic evaluation of the MOHMQuit trial will provide essential, policy-relevant information for decision makers on the value of evidence-based implementation of support for healthcare providers delivering services for pregnant women. TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: ACTRN12622000167763, registered 2 February 2022.

Patterns of collaboration and knowledge generated by an Australian rural research centre over 20 years: a co-authorship network analysis.

BACKGROUND: People living in rural areas have poorer health than their urban counterparts. Although rural health research centres have been promoted as vehicles for improving rural health by contributing evidence to address rural health disadvantage and building research capacity, their characteristics and evolution are poorly understood. Collaboration is known to have an important positive influence on research outputs and research quality. In this study we examine publication outputs from an Australian rural research centre to evaluate how researchers have engaged in research collaboration over a two-decade period. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal study of publications in peer-reviewed journals from a rural research centre-University Centre for Rural Health (UCRH) -between January 2002 and December 2021. Organisational co-author networks across four periods (2002-2006; 2007-2011; 2012-2016; 2017-2021) were constructed based on author organisational affiliations and examined using social network analysis methods. Descriptive characteristics included organisation types, study design, region of study focus, thematic research trends, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and female authorship, and journal characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 577 publications with 130 different UCRH-affiliated authors. Publications and the co-author network increased in number and diversity over each period, with an acceleration and a consolidation of the network in the final period. Over time there was an increase in publications related to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health, coupled with an increase in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander authorship and collaborations with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander organisations; rise in female senior authorship and publication in quartile 1 journals. About two-thirds of publications make no reference to regional or remote populations. CONCLUSION: Collaboration in publications increased, expanded, and consolidated, which coincided with an increase in the number and diversity of both co-authoring organisations and UCRH-affiliated authors in the final period. The findings highlight the value of collaborations (including urban and international) in building and strengthening rural health research capacity. With increased capacity and consolidation of the network it is now imperative that research becomes more focussed on understanding and addressing rural health inequities.

Individual and national financial impacts of informal caring for people with mental illness in Australia, projected to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Mental illness has a significant impact not only on patients, but also on their carers' capacity to work. AIMS: To estimate the costs associated with lost labour force participation due to the provision of informal care for people with mental illness in Australia, such as income loss for carers and lost tax revenue and increased welfare payments for government, from 2015 to 2030. METHOD: The output data of a microsimulation model Care&WorkMOD were analysed to project the financial costs of informal care for people with mental illness, from 2015 to 2030. Care&WorkMOD is a population-representative microsimulation model of the Australian population aged between 15 and 64 years, built using the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers data and the data from other population-representative microsimulation models. RESULTS: The total annual national loss of income for all carers due to caring for someone with mental illness was projected to rise from AU$451 million (£219.6 million) in 2015 to AU$645 million (£314 million) in 2030 in real terms. For the government, the total annual lost tax revenue was projected to rise from AU$121 million (£58.9 million) in 2015 to AU$170 million (£82.8 million) in 2030 and welfare payments to increase from AU$170 million (£82.8 million) to AU$220 million (£107 million) in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The costs associated with lost labour force participation due to the provision of informal care for people with mental illness are projected to increase for both carers and government, with a widening income gap between informal carers and employed non-carers, putting carers at risk of increased inequality.

Improving implementation of smoking cessation guidelines in pregnancy care: development of an intervention to address system, maternity service leader and clinician factors.

BACKGROUND: Smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of multiple serious adverse infant, child and maternal outcomes, yet nearly 10% of Australian women still smoke during pregnancy. Despite evidence-based guidelines that recommend routine and repeated smoking cessation support (SCS) for all pregnant women, the provision of recommended SCS remains poor. Guidance on developing complex interventions to improve health care recommends drawing on existing theories, reviewing evidence, undertaking primary data collection, attending to future real-world implementation and designing and refining interventions using iterative cycles with stakeholder input throughout. Here, we describe using the Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) and the Theoretical Domains Framework to apply these principles in developing an intervention to improve the provision of SCS in Australian maternity services. METHODS: Working closely with key stakeholders in the New South Wales (NSW) health system, we applied the steps of the BCW method then undertook a small feasibility study in one service to further refine the intervention. Stakeholders were engaged in multiple ways-as a core research team member, through a project Advisory Group, targeted meetings with policymakers, a large workshop to review potential components and the feasibility study. RESULTS: Barriers to and enablers of providing SCS were identified in five of six components described in the BCW method (psychological capability, physical opportunity, social opportunity and reflective and automatic motivation). These were mapped to intervention types and we selected education, training, enablement, environmental restructuring, persuasion, incentivisation and modelling as suitable in our context. Through application of the APEASE criteria (Affordability, Practicability, Effectiveness, Acceptability, Side effects and Equity) in the stakeholder workshop, behaviour change techniques were selected and applied in developing the intervention which includes systems, clinician and leadership elements. The feasibility study confirmed the feasibility and acceptability of the midwifery component and the need to further strengthen the leadership component. CONCLUSIONS: Using the BCW method combined with strong stakeholder engagement from inception resulted in transparent development of the MOHMQuit intervention, which targets identified barriers to and enablers of the provision of SCS and is developed specifically for the context in which it will be implemented. The intervention is being trialled in eight public maternity services in NSW.

Improving Clinicians' Implementation of Guidelines to Help Women Stop Smoking in Pregnancy: Developing Evidence-Based Print and Video Materials.

Smoking in pregnancy remains a public health challenge. Our team developed a comprehensive intervention using the Behaviour Change Wheel to support clinicians' implementation of guidelines on supporting women to stop smoking in pregnancy. Integral to the intervention was a suite of evidence-based video and print materials. This paper describes the rationale and process for developing these materials. Comprehensive mixed methods research was undertaken to identify the key barriers and enablers for clinicians in implementing the guidelines. This research identified which behaviours required change, and which behaviour change techniques were best suited to effecting that change. Materials were developed based on this understanding, in a collaborative process with multiple stakeholders, and their feasibility and acceptability explored in a small trial. Materials developed included leadership, clinician and client resources. There are considerable advantages to systematically and collaboratively developing materials which are integral to a behaviour-change intervention even though it is resource intensive to do so.

Factors associated with provision of smoking cessation support to pregnant women - a cross-sectional survey of midwives in New South Wales, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the most important preventable cause of adverse pregnancy outcomes, but provision of smoking cessation support (SCS) to pregnant women is poor. We examined the association between midwives' implementation of SCS (5As - Ask, Advise, Assess, Assist, Arrange follow-up) and reported barriers/enablers to implementation. METHODS: On-line anonymous survey of midwives providing antenatal care in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, assessing provision of the 5As and barriers/enablers to their implementation, using the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF). Factor analyses identified constructs underlying the 5As; and barriers/enablers. Multivariate general linear models examined relationships between the barrier/enabler factors and the 5As factors. RESULTS: Of 750 midwives invited, 150 (20%) participated. Respondents more commonly reported Asking and Assessing than Advising, Assisting, or Arranging follow-up (e.g. 77% always Ask smoking status; 17% always Arrange follow-up). Three 5As factors were identified- 'Helping', 'Assessing quitting' and 'Assessing dependence'. Responses to barrier/enabler items showed greater knowledge, skills, intentions, and confidence with Assessment than Assisting; endorsement for SCS as a priority and part of midwives' professional role; and gaps in training and organisational support for SCS. Nine barrier/enabler factors were identified. Of these, the factors of 'Capability' (knowledge, skills, confidence); 'Work Environment' (service has resources, capacity, champions and values SCS) and 'Personal priority' (part of role and a priority) predicted 'Helping'. CONCLUSION: The TDF enabled systematic identification of barriers to providing SCS, and the multivariate models identified key contributors to poor implementation. Combined with qualitative data, these results have been mapped to intervention components to develop a comprehensive intervention to improve SCS.

Informal caring for back pain: overlooked costs of back pain and projections to 2030.

This study models the economic costs of informal caring for people with back pain, using a microsimulation model, Care&WorkMOD, from 2015 to 2030. Care&WorkMOD was based on 3 national Australian Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (2003, 2009, 2012) data sets for individuals aged 15 to 64 years. Estimated national income loss due to caring for people with back pain was AU$258 million in 2015, increasing to $398 million in 2030 (54% increase). Lost income tax revenue to the Australian government due to informal care of people with back pain was estimated to be AU$78 million in 2015, increasing to AU$118 million in 2030 (50% increase), and additional welfare payments were estimated to rise from $132 million in 2015 to AU$180 in 2030 (36% increase). Larger growth in lost income, compared with the increase in welfare payments, means that there would be an increasing income gap between those out of the labour force providing informal care and noncarers who are in the labour force, leading to increased inequality. Informal carers are defined as providers of informal, unpaid assistance to someone with a health condition, for at least 6 months. Informal carers of people with back pain who are out of the labour force incur substantial economic costs. Furthermore, back pain is a large economic burden on national governments. Policies addressing back pain prevention and treatment, and supporting carers, may offset government welfare expenditure, while improving the socioeconomic well-being of carers and patients.

Do cognitive aids reduce error rates in resuscitation team performance? Trial of emergency medicine protocols in simulation training (TEMPIST) in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Resuscitation of patients with time-critical and life-threatening illness represents a cognitive challenge for emergency room (ER) clinicians. We designed a cognitive aid, the Emergency Protocols Handbook, to simplify clinical management and team processes. Resuscitation guidelines were reformatted into simple, single step-by-step pathways. This Australian randomised controlled trial tested the effectiveness of this cognitive aid in a simulated ER environment by observing team error rates when current resuscitation guidelines were followed, with and without the handbook. METHODS: Resuscitation teams were randomised to manage two scenarios with the handbook and two without in a high-fidelity simulation centre. Each scenario was video-recorded. The primary outcome measure was error rates (the number of errors made out of 15 key tasks per scenario). Key tasks varied by scenario. Each team completed four scenarios and was measured on 60 key tasks. Participants were surveyed regarding their perception of the usefulness of the handbook. RESULTS: Twenty-one groups performed 84 ER crisis simulations. The unadjusted error rate in the handbook group was 18.8% (121/645) versus 38.9% (239/615) in the non-handbook group. There was a statistically significant reduction of 54.0% (95% CI 49.9-57.9) in the estimated percentage error rate when the handbook was available across all scenarios 17.9% (95% CI 14.4-22.0%) versus 38.9% (95% CI 34.2-43.9%). Almost all (97%) participants said they would want to use this cognitive aid during a real medical crisis situation. CONCLUSION: This trial showed that by following the step-by-step, linear pathways in the handbook, clinicians more than halved their teams' rate of error, across four simulated medical crises. The handbook improves team performance and enables healthcare teams to reduce clinical error rates and thus reduce harm for patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12616001456448 registered: www.anzctr.org.au. Trial site: http://emergencyprotocols.org.au/.

Validity of a tool designed to assess the preventability of potentially preventable hospitalizations for chronic conditions.

BACKGROUND: Potentially preventable hospitalizations (PPH) are defined as unplanned hospital admissions which could potentially have been prevented with the provision of effective, timely outpatient care. To better understand and ultimately reduce rates of PPH, a means of identifying those which are actually preventable is required. The Preventability Assessment Tool (PAT) was designed for use by hospital clinicians to assess the preventability of unplanned admissions for chronic conditions. OBJECTIVE: The present study examined the ability of the PAT to distinguish between those unplanned admissions which are preventable and those which are not, compared to the assessments of an Expert Panel. METHODS: Data were collected between November 2014 and June 2017 at three hospitals in NSW, Australia. Participants were community-dwelling patients with unplanned hospital admissions for congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes complications or angina pectoris. A nurse and a doctor caring for the patient made assessments of the preventability of the admission using the PAT. Expert Panels made assessments of the preventability of each admission based on a comprehensive case report and consensus process. RESULTS: There was little concordance between the hospital doctors and nurses regarding the preventability of admissions, nor between the assessments of the Expert Panel and the hospital nurse or the Expert Panel and the hospital doctor. CONCLUSIONS: The PAT demonstrated poor concurrent validity and is not a valid tool for assessing the preventability of unplanned hospital admissions. The use of Expert Panels provides a more rigorous approach to assessing the preventability of such admissions.

Intellectual disability and autism: socioeconomic impacts of informal caring, projected to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Intellectual disability and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) influence the interactions of a person with their environment and generate economic and socioeconomic costs for the person, their family and society. AIMS: To estimate costs of lost workforce participation due to informal caring for people with intellectual disability or autism spectrum disorders by estimating lost income to individuals, lost taxation payments to federal government and increased welfare payments. METHOD: We used a microsimulation model based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (population surveys of people aged 15-64), and projected costs of caring from 2015 in 5-year intervals to 2030. RESULTS: The model estimated that informal carers of people with intellectual disability and/or ASD in Australia had aggregated lost income of AU$310 million, lost taxation of AU$100 million and increased welfare payments of AU$204 million in 2015. These are projected to increase to AU$432 million, AU$129 million and AU$254 million for income, taxation, and welfare respectively by 2030. The income gap of carers for people with intellectual disability and/or ASD is estimated to increase by 2030, meaning more financial stress for carers. CONCLUSIONS: Informal carers of people with intellectual disability and/or ASD experience significant loss of income, leading to increased welfare payments and reduced taxation revenue for governments; these are all projected to increase. Strategic policies supporting informal carers wishing to return to work could improve the financial and psychological impact of having a family member with intellectual disability and/or ASD. DECLARATION OF INTEREST: None.

Economic costs of informal care for people with chronic diseases in the community: Lost income, extra welfare payments, and reduced taxes in Australia in 2015-2030.

We estimated the economic costs of informal care in the community from 2015 to 2030, using an Australian microsimulation model, Care&WorkMOD. The model was based on data from three Surveys of Disability, Ageing, and Carers (SDACs) for the Australian population aged 15-64 years old. Estimated national income lost was AU$3.58 billion in 2015, increasing to $5.33 billion in 2030 (49% increase). Lost tax payments were estimated at AU$0.99 billion in 2015, increasing to AU$1.44 billion in 2030 (45% increase), and additional welfare payments were expected to rise from $1.45 billion in 2015 to AU$1.94 in 2030 (34% increase). There are substantial economic costs both to informal carers and the government due to carers being out of the labour-force to provide informal care for people with chronic diseases. Health and social policies supporting carers to remain in the labour force may allow governments to make substantial savings, while improving the economic situation of carers.

Ambulatory care sensitive chronic conditions: what can we learn from patients about the role of primary health care in preventing admissions?

Developing and targeting interventions to reduce hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) chronic conditions for older people is a key focus for improvement of the health system. To do this, an understanding of any modifiable factors that may contribute to such admissions is needed. To date, the literature on ACS admissions has rarely included the patient perspective. This qualitative study involved one-to-one telephone interviews with 24 patients aged ≥45 years who had had an unplanned admission for an ACS chronic condition to one of two participating regional hospitals between February and August 2015. Data were transcribed and analysed thematically. Most participants did not perceive their admission to be preventable, yet they described a series of interlinking factors, which may have contributed to their admission and which may offer potential points of leverage. Key interlinked themes interpreted were: 'support deficits', 'non-adherence to treatment' (including medication), 'mental health' and 'lack of awareness or understanding of condition'. Improving system-, clinician- and patient-level factors within a framework of appropriately resourced and supported comprehensive primary health care that is accessible, affordable, holistic, practical and evidence-based may contribute to improving patients' quality of life and to delaying or preventing hospital admission.

Comparing and contrasting 'innovation platforms' with other forms of professional networks for strengthening primary healthcare systems for Indigenous Australians.

Efforts to strengthen health systems require the engagement of diverse, multidisciplinary stakeholder networks. Networks provide a forum for experimentation and knowledge creation, information exchange and the spread of good ideas and practice. They might be useful in addressing complex issues or 'wicked' problems, the solutions to which go beyond the control and scope of any one agency. Innovation platforms are proposed as a novel type of network because of their diverse stakeholder composition and focus on problem solving within complex systems. Thus, they have potential applicability to health systems strengthening initiatives, even though they have been predominantly applied in the international agricultural development sector. In this paper, we compare and contrast the concept of innovation platforms with other types of networks that can be used in efforts to strengthen primary healthcare systems, such as communities of practice, practice-based research networks and quality improvement collaboratives. We reflect on our ongoing research programme that applies innovation platform concepts to drive large-scale quality improvement in primary healthcare for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians and outline our plans for evaluation. Lessons from our experience will find resonance with others working on similar initiatives in global health.

Evaluation of 'Stop Smoking in its Tracks': an intensive smoking cessation program for pregnant Aboriginal women incorporating contingency-based financial rewards.

BACKGROUND: Smoking during pregnancy is three times as common among Aboriginal women as non-Aboriginal women, with consequent higher rates of adverse health outcomes. Effective interventions to support Aboriginal women to quit smoking have not yet been identified. OBJECTIVES: To assess the feasibility and acceptability of implementing a culturally tailored, intensive smoking cessation program, including contingency-based financial rewards (CBFR), for pregnant Aboriginal women. METHODS: The structured program included frequent support with individually tailored counselling, free nicotine replacement therapy, engagement with household members, specially developed resources, CBFR and peer support groups. It was implemented by three rural Aboriginal Maternal and Infant Health Services sites. Women were eligible if they or their partner were Aboriginal; and if they were: current smokers or had quit since becoming pregnant; >=16 years old; at <20 weeks gestation; and locally resident. Data included demographics, obstetrics, initial smoking behaviour, program implementation and quitting behaviour. Self-reported quitting was confirmed by expired carbon monoxide (CO). Women and staff were interviewed about their experiences. RESULTS: Twenty-two of 38 eligible women (58%) enrolled in the program, with 19 (86% remaining at the end of their pregnancy. The program was highly acceptable to both women and providers. Feasibility issues included challenges providing twice-weekly visits for 3 weeks and running fortnightly support groups. Of the 19 women who completed the program, 15 (79%) reported a quit attempt lasting >=24 hours, and 8 (42%) were CO-confirmed as not smoking in late pregnancy. The rewards were perceived to help motivate women, but the key to successful quitting was considered to be the intensive support provided. CONCLUSIONS: 'Stop Smoking in its Tracks' was acceptable and is likely to be feasible to implement with some modifications. The program should be tested in a larger study.

The long-term economic impacts of arthritis through lost productive life years: results from an Australian microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: While the direct (medical) costs of arthritis are regularly reported in cost of illness studies, the 'true' cost to indivdiuals and goverment requires the calculation of the indirect costs as well including lost productivity due to ill-health. METHODS: Respondents aged 45-64 in the ABS Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003, 2009 formed the base population. We projected the indirect costs of arthritis using Health&WealthMOD2030 - Australia's first microsimulation model on the long-term impacts of ill-health in older workers - which incorporated outputs from established microsimulation models (STINMOD and APPSIM), population and labour force projections from Treasury, and chronic conditions trends for Australia. All costs of arthritis were expressed in real 2013 Australian dollars, adjusted for inflation over time. RESULTS: We estimated there are 54,000 people aged 45-64 with lost PLYs due to arthritis in 2015, increasing to 61,000 in 2030 (13% increase). In 2015, people with lost PLYs are estimated to receive AU$706.12 less in total income and AU$311.67 more in welfare payments per week than full-time workers without arthritis, and pay no income tax on average. National costs include an estimated loss of AU$1.5 billion in annual income in 2015, increasing to AU$2.4 billion in 2030 (59% increase). Lost annual taxation revenue was projected to increase from AU$0.4 billion in 2015 to $0.5 billion in 2030 (56% increase). We projected a loss in GDP of AU$6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to AU$8.2 billion in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Significant costs of arthritis through lost PLYs are incurred by individuals and government. The effectiveness of arthritis interventions should be judged not only on healthcare use but quality of life and economic wellbeing.

Improving implementation of the smoking cessation guidelines with pregnant women: How to support clinicians?

OBJECTIVE: this study aimed to explore the enablers and barriers to implementation of the Australian smoking cessation in pregnancy guidelines. These guidelines direct clinicians to follow the 5As of cessation: Ask, Advise, Assess, Assist and Arrange follow-up. DESIGN: semi-structured interviews based on the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) elicited clinicians' views and experiences of implementing the guidelines. SETTING: antenatal care in the NSW public health system. PARTICIPANTS: 27 maternity service managers, obstetricians and midwives. FINDINGS: participants confirmed that implementation of the smoking cessation guidelines was sub-optimal. This was particularly the case with Assist and Arrange follow up at the initial visit, and with following any of the 5As at subsequent visits. Key barriers included systems which did not support implementation or monitoring, lack of knowledge, skills and training, perceived time restrictions, 'difficult conversations' and perceiving smoking as a social activity. Enablers included clinicians' knowledge of the harms of smoking in pregnancy, clinicians' skills in communicating with pregnant women, positive emotions, professional role and identity, the potential of training and of champions to influence practice, and systems that regulated behaviour. KEY CONCLUSIONS: these findings will contribute to the development of a multifaceted intervention to support clinicians in implementing the guidelines. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Building on existing strengths, antenatal care providers may be supported in implementing the guidelines by working with systems which remind and support implementation, the clear reframing of smoking as an addiction, knowledge and skills development and by realizing the potential of leadership to maximise the impact of reinforcement and social influence.

The costs of diabetes among Australians aged 45-64†years from 2015 to 2030: projections of lost productive life years (PLYs), lost personal income, lost taxation revenue, extra welfare payments and lost gross domestic product from Health&WealthMOD2030.

OBJECTIVES: To project the number of people aged 45-64 years with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to diabetes and related costs (lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue); and lost gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to diabetes in Australia from 2015 to 2030. DESIGN: A simulation study of how the number of people aged 45-64 years with diabetes increases over time (based on population growth and disease trend data) and the economic losses incurred by individuals and the government. Cross-sectional outputs of a microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD2030) which used the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009 as a base population and integrated outputs from two microsimulation models (Static Incomes Model and Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model), Treasury's population and labour force projections, and chronic disease trends data. SETTING: Australian population aged 45-64 years in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. OUTCOME MEASURES: Lost PLYs, lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue, lost GDP. RESULTS: 18 100 people are out of the labour force due to diabetes in 2015, increasing to 21 400 in 2030 (18% increase). National costs consisted of a loss of $A467 million in annual income in 2015, increasing to $A807 million in 2030 (73% increase). For the government, extra annual welfare payments increased from $A311 million in 2015 to $A350 million in 2030 (13% increase); and lost annual taxation revenue increased from $A102 million in 2015 to $A166 million in 2030 (63% increase). A loss of $A2.1 billion in GDP was projected for 2015, increasing to $A2.9 billion in 2030 attributable to diabetes through its impact on PLYs. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals incur significant costs of diabetes through lost PLYs and lost income in addition to disease burden through human suffering and healthcare costs. The government incurs extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue and lost GDP, along with direct healthcare costs.

The indirect costs of back problems (dorsopathies) in Australians aged 45 to 64 years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030.

This study projected the indirect costs of back problems through lost productive life years (PLYs) from the individual's perspective (lost disposable income), the governmental perspective (reduced taxation revenue, greater welfare spending), and the societal perspective (lost gross domestic product, GDP) from 2015 to 2030, using Health&WealthMOD2030-Australia's first microsimulation model on the long-term impacts of ill-health. Quantile regression analysis was used to examine differences in median weekly income, welfare payments, and taxes of people unable to work due to back problems with working full-time without back problems as comparator. National costs and lost GDP resulting from missing workers due to back problems were also projected. We projected that 90,000 people have lost PLYs due to back problems in 2015, increasing to 104,600 in 2030 (16.2% increase). People with lost PLYs due to back problems are projected to receive AU$340.91 less in total income and AU$339.77 more in welfare payments per week than full-time workers without back problems in 2030 and pay no income tax on average. National costs consisted of a loss of AU$2931 million in annual income in 2015, increasing to AU$4660 million in 2030 (60% increase). For government, extra annual welfare payments are projected to increase from AU$1462 million in 2015 to AU$1709 million in 2030 (16.9% increase), and lost annual taxation revenue to increase from AU$671 million in 2015 to $961 million in 2030 (43.2% increase). We projected losses in GDP of AU$10,543 million in 2015, increasing to AU$14,522 million in 2030 due to back problems.

Economic costs of chronic disease through lost productive life years (PLYs) among Australians aged 45-64†years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model.

OBJECTIVES: To project the number of older workers with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to chronic disease and resultant lost income; and lost taxes and increased welfare payments from 2015 to 2030. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Using a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, the costs of chronic disease in Australians aged 45-64 were projected to 2030. The model integrates household survey data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDACs) 2003 and 2009, output from long-standing microsimulation models (STINMOD (Static Incomes Model) and APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model)) used by various government departments, population and labour force growth data from Treasury, and disease trends data from the Australian Burden of Disease and Injury Study (2003). Respondents aged 45-64 years in the SDACs 2003 and 2009 formed the base population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lost PLYs due to chronic disease; resultant lost income, lost taxes and increased welfare payments in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. RESULTS: We projected 380 000 (6.4%) people aged 45-64 years with lost PLYs in 2015, increasing to 462 000 (6.5%) in 2030-a 22% increase in absolute numbers. Those with lost PLYs experience the largest reduction in income than any other group in each year compared to those employed full time without a chronic disease, and this income gap widens over time. The total economic loss due to lost PLYs consisted of lost income modelled at $A12.6 billion in 2015, increasing to $A20.5 billion in 2030-a 62.7% increase. Additional costs to the government consisted of increased welfare payments at $A6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to $A7.3 billion in 2030-a 17.7% increase; and a loss of $A3.1 billion in taxes in 2015, increasing to $A4.7 billion in 2030-a growth of 51.6%. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for greater investment in effective preventive health interventions which improve workers' health and work capacity.