Machine Learning for Short-Term Mortality in Acute Decompensation of Liver Cirrhosis: Better than MELD Score.

Prediction of short-term mortality in patients with acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis could be improved. We aimed to develop and validate two machine learning (ML) models for predicting 28-day and 90-day mortality in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated liver cirrhosis. We trained two artificial neural network (ANN)-based ML models using a training sample of 165 out of 290 (56.9%) patients, and then tested their predictive performance against Model of End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) and MELD 3.0 scores using a different validation sample of 125 out of 290 (43.1%) patients. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting 28-day mortality for the ML model was 0.811 (95%CI: 0.714- 0.907; p < 0.001), while the AUC for the MELD-Na score was 0.577 (95%CI: 0.435-0.720; p = 0.226) and for MELD 3.0 was 0.600 (95%CI: 0.462-0.739; p = 0.117). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting 90-day mortality for the ML model was 0.839 (95%CI: 0.776- 0.884; p < 0.001), while the AUC for the MELD-Na score was 0.682 (95%CI: 0.575-0.790; p = 0.002) and for MELD 3.0 was 0.703 (95%CI: 0.590-0.816; p < 0.001). Our study demonstrates that ML-based models for predicting short-term mortality in patients with acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis perform significantly better than MELD-Na and MELD 3.0 scores in a validation cohort.

Serum proteomic profiling of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease with and without clinically significant portal hypertension.

INTRODUCTION: Portal hypertension (PH) drives the progression of liver cirrhosis to decompensation and death. Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement is the standard of PH quantification, and HVPG≥10 mmHg defines clinically significant PH (CSPH). We performed proteomics-based serum profiling to search for a proteomic signature of CSPH in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients with histologically confirmed cACLD and results of HVPG measurements were prospectively included. Serum samples were pooled according to the presence/absence of CSPH and analysed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Gene set enrichment analysis was performed, followed by comprehensive literature review for proteins identified with the most striking difference between the groups. RESULTS: We included 48 patients (30 with, and 18 without CSPH). Protein CD44, involved in the inflammatory response, vascular endothelial growth factor C (VEGF-C) and lymphatic vessel endothelial hyaluronan receptor-1 (LYVE-1), both involved in lymphangiogenesis were found solely in the CSPH group. Although identified in both groups, proteins involved in neutrophil extracellular traps (NET) formation, as well as tenascin C, autotaxin and nephronectin which mediate vascular contractility and lymphangiogenesis were more abundant in CSPH. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: We propose that altered inflammatory response, including NET formation, vascular contractility and formation of new lymph vessels are key steps in PH development. Proteins such as CD44, VEGF-C, LYVE-1, tenascin C, Plasminogen activator inhibitor 1, Nephronectin, Bactericidal permeability-increasing protein, Autotaxin, Myeloperoxidase and a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs-like protein 4 might be considered for further validation as potential therapeutic targets and candidate biomarkers of CSPH in cACLD.

Porto-sinusoidal vascular disease: a new definition of an old clinical entity.

Porto-sinusoidal vascular disease (PSVD) is defined as a vascular liver disease characterized by the absence of cirrhosis and the presence of characteristic histological features, with or without the presence of portal hypertension (PH). Half of the patients with PSVD also have associated disease that may contribute to the development of PSVD. Patients usually remain asymptomatic until complications of PH arise. Variceal bleeding and portal vein thrombosis are major complications associated with PSVD. The treatment is focused on managing complications of PH, mainly through primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding and treatment of portal vein thrombosis. Currently, there is insufficient evidence to support the use of anticoagulants for thrombosis prevention in these patients. Despite the increase of recognition of PSVD, further research is needed to enable early disease diagnosis, establish optimal screening methods, and develop strategies to slow down disease progression.