National Population Growth Rate, Its Components, and Subnational Contributions: A Research Note.

A population's current growth rate is determined jointly by changes in fertility, mortality, and migration. This overall growth rate is also the average of age-specific growth rates, which can be decomposed into the result of historical changes in fertility, mortality, and migration. However, doing so requires more than 100 years of historical data, meaning that such analyses are possible only in a select few populations. In this research note, we propose an adapted version of the variable-r model to measure contributions to the population growth rate for countries with shorter demographic series. In addition, we extend this model to explore the contribution of subnational changes to the national population growth rate. Our results demonstrate that the age-specific growth rates obtained from short historical series, say 25 years, closely match those of the longer series. These abbreviated age-specific growth rates closely resemble the growth rate at birth of their respective cohorts, which is the major determinant of population growth, except at older ages where mortality becomes the main explanatory element. Exploring subnational populations, we find considerable heterogeneity in the age profile of the components of growth and find that the most populous regions tend to have an outsized impact on national-level growth.

Exploring the Utilization of Imaging Modalities in the Diagnosis of Basal Cell Carcinoma: A Scoping Review.

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is a common skin cancer that occurs due to various genetic and environmental factors. Diagnosis is made by a combination of clinical appearance, biopsy, imaging, and histopathological analysis. This review describes the current array of imaging modalities available to physicians to aid in the diagnosis of BCC. It is important to stay up-to-date with improvements in diagnostic screening, and knowledge of these options is instrumental in providing the best care to patients. Embase, Medline Industries, and PubMed were searched for articles within the past 10 years based on a search query that looked for imaging modalities used in the diagnosis and evaluation of a variety of dermatologic conditions. The search was further refined to focus on BCC and satisfy the inclusion/exclusion criteria determined by the authors. The research process was detailed in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses diagram. Dermoscopy is a non-invasive in vivo microscopic technique used to evaluate skin lesions. Features of dermoscopy cannot be visualized with the naked eye, and studies found that dermoscopy increased diagnostic accuracy. Reflectance confocal microscopy (RCM) examines skin morphology, and recent studies found that 100% of patients with BCC had tumor-free margins when diagnosed with RCM. It allows for a one-stop-shop for diagnosis. Optical spectroscopy samples multiple sites without removing tissue. It helps detect subtle biophysical differences, allowing for earlier diagnosis. High-frequency ultrasound (HFUS) helps determine tumor size, structure, depth of invasion and spread. Studies found statistically significant positive correlations between depth of spread and HFUS readings. Optical coherence tomography takes cross-sectional images to analyze histopathology and morphology. It produces high-resolution images, confers slightly more accurate results than a biopsy, and expedites the treatment process through an earlier diagnosis without a biopsy.These results will advance the fields of dermatology and radiology as they describe unique uses for these imaging modalities. There are a variety of ways to use microscopy, and these techniques may be applied to many different lesions and help revolutionize the diagnosis and treatment of skin cancer and other lesions without the need for multiple, sometimes disfiguring surgical procedures. With the increase in diagnostic accuracy and decrease in diagnosis time, advanced imaging studies will become an integral part of dermatologic diagnosis and be included in future management and treatment plans, especially in the case of BCC.

Renal mass imaging modalities: does body mass index (BMI) matter?

PURPOSE: Accurate measurement of renal mass size is crucial in the management of renal cancer. With the burdensome cost of imaging yet its need for management, a better understanding of the variability among patients when determining mass size remains of urgent importance. Current guidelines on optimal imaging are limited, especially with respect to body mass index (BMI). The aim of this study is to discern which modalities accurately measure renal mass size and whether BMI influences such accuracy. METHODS: A multi-institutional chart review was performed for adult patients undergoing partial or radical nephrectomy between 2018 and 2021, with 236 patients ultimately included. Patients were categorized by BMI (BMI 1: 18.5-24.9, BMI 2: 25-29.9, BMI 3: 30-34.9, and BMI 4: ≥ 35). The greatest mass lengths were compared between the pathology report and the following: computerized tomography (CT), renal ultrasound, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). RESULTS: The difference between greatest length on CT with contrast and MRI were significantly different when compared to pathologic measurement. BMI groups 3 and 4 were found to have a significant difference in size estimates compared to BMI 2 for CT with contrast. No difference was found between size estimates by BMI group for any other imaging modality. CONCLUSION: CT with contrast becomes less accurate at estimating mass size for patients with BMI > 30. While contrast-enhanced CT remains a vital imaging modality for tissue enhancement in the context of unknown renal masses, caution must be used for mass size estimation in the obese population.

Utilization of Imaging Modalities in the Diagnosis of Melanoma: A Scoping Review.

Melanomas arise de novo or in the context of a precursor lesion. Lesions typically grow radially and then undergo a vertical growth phase proceeding to local invasion and metastasis. This review describes the utility of different imaging modalities in diagnosis and melanocytic lesion monitoring. A literature search was performed in November 2023 utilizing EMBASE, Medline, and PubMed. The PRISMA diagram demonstrates the review process. Reflectance confocal microscopy (RCM) utilizes near-infrared light to help diagnose dermatologic lesions. RCM was found to demonstrate nearly two times the positive predictive value compared to dermoscopy. The introduction of the Berlin Ultrasound (US) Morphology Criteria permitted a 65-80% improvement in diagnostic sensitivity. US with fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) accurately predicts the necessity for sentinel lymph node biopsy and lymphadenectomy, sparing patients with metastasis and prompting biopsy for equivocal lesions. Single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT) is an adjunctive tool to anatomically and functionally assess lymphatic invasion. SPECT/CT improves the detection of sentinel nodes while decreasing operating time and improving cosmetic outcomes. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) with small voxel reconstruction demonstrated increased specificity and sensitivity for detecting in-transit metastases of melanomas, specifically in the limbs. Dermoscopy allows providers to cost-effectively recognize common lesion patterns. Multiphoton microscopy assigns a weight-based score based on malignant features. Optical coherence angiography captures images of vessels to help diagnose equivocal lesions. Utilization of imaging techniques may increase diagnostic accuracy, reduce unnecessary procedures, and help guide treatment plans. Additional research is needed to further characterize the utility of these techniques in order to improve the diagnosis and treatment of melanomas.

Inequalities in Mortality in the Asia-Pacific: A Cross-National Comparison of Socioeconomic Gradients.

OBJECTIVES: Social inequalities in mortality are poorly studied in much of the Asia-Pacific. Using data from harmonized nationally representative longitudinal health and aging surveys our study systematically assesses mortality disparities across 3 standardized measures of socioeconomic status in 7 Asia-Pacific countries. METHODS: We used data from multiple waves of 7 representative sample surveys: the Health, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, the Indonesian Family Life Survey, the New Zealand Health, Work and Retirement survey, the Korean Longitudinal Study on Ageing and the Health, Aging and Retirement in Thailand survey, and the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement. We use Cox proportional hazards modeling to examine how the hazard of mortality differs across domains of social stratification including educational attainment, wealth, and occupational status across countries. RESULTS: We found consistent and pervasive gradients in mortality risk in the high-income countries by all available measures of social stratification. In contrast, patterns of inequality in adult mortality in middle-income and recently transitioned high-income countries investigated varied depending on the measure of social stratification, with strong gradients by wealth but mixed gradients by education. DISCUSSION: Analyzing social gradients in mortality in the Asia-Pacific shows that inequalities, especially wealth-based inequalities, in later-life health are present across the region, and that the magnitude of social gradients in mortality is overall larger in high-income countries as compared to middle-income countries.

Decomposition of Differentials in Health Expectancies From Multistate Life Tables: A Research Note.

Multistate modeling is a commonly used method to compute healthy life expectancy. However, there is currently no analytical method to decompose the components of differentials in summary measures calculated from multistate models. In this research note, we propose a derivative-based method to decompose the differentials in population-based health expectancies estimated via a multistate model into two main components: the proportion resulting from differences in initial health structure and the proportion resulting from differences in health transitions. We illustrate the method using data on activities of daily living from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study to decompose the sex differential in disability-free life expectancy (HLE) among older Americans. Our results suggest that the sex gap in HLE results primarily from differences in transition rates between disability states rather than from the initial health distribution of female and male populations. The methods introduced here will enable researchers, including those working in fields other than health, to decompose the relative contribution of initial population structure and transition probabilities to differences in state-specific life expectancies from multistate models.

Disability and morbidity among US birth cohorts, 1998-2018: A multidimensional test of dynamic equilibrium theory.

A substantial body of prior research has explored patterns of disability-free and morbidity-free life expectancy among older populations. However, these distinct facets of later-life health are almost always studied in isolation, even though they are very likely to be related. Using data from the US Health and Retirement Study and a multistate life table approach, this paper explores the interactions between disability, morbidity, and mortality by sex and education among four successive US birth cohorts, born from 1914 to 1923 to 1944-1953 and compared in the periods 1998-2008 and 2008-2018. We find little compression of disability but a marked expansion of morbidity across cohorts. However, disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) among those living with chronic morbidities has increased, even though at the population-level DFLE is largely unchanged. Broadly, these patterns suggest that successive cohorts of older populations in the US are experiencing a dynamic equilibrium, where the link between chronic morbidities and disability has weakened over successive cohorts. Investigating patterns by educational attainment, we find marked disparities where the least educated individuals not only live significantly fewer years free of disabilities or chronic morbidities but also have experienced an expansion in morbidity and disability. Our findings suggest that the future trajectory of disability-free life expectancy in the US is increasingly contingent on efforts to improve disease management and control the severe consequences of chronic morbidities.

A growing divide: Trends in social inequalities in healthy longevity in Australia, 2001-20.

This study examines two decades of change in social inequalities in life and health expectancy among older adults in Australia, one of the few countries that escaped an economic recession during the global financial crisis. We compare adults aged 45+ across three measures of individual socio-economic position-education, occupation, and household wealth-and use multistate life tables to estimate total life expectancy (TLE) and life expectancy free of limiting long-term illness (LLTI-free LE) based on 20 waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (2001-20). Our findings highlight substantial social disparities in both TLE and LLTI-free LE in Australia. Grouping individuals by household wealth shows striking differentials in LLTI-free LE. We observe widening social disparities in healthy longevity over time by all three measures of socio-economic position. This diverging trend in healthy longevity is troubling against the backdrop of widening income and wealth inequalities in Australia.

Impact of diabetes on longevity and disability-free life expectancy among older South African adults: A prospective longitudinal analysis.

AIMS: We seek to understand the coexisting effects of population aging and a rising burden of diabetes on healthy longevity in South Africa. METHODS: We used longitudinal data from the 2015 and 2018 waves of the "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa" (HAALSI) study to explore life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) of adults aged 45 and older with and without diabetes in rural South Africa. We estimated LE and DFLE by diabetes status using Markov-based microsimulation. RESULTS: We find a clear gradient in remaining LE and DFLE based on diabetes status. At age 45, a man without diabetes could expect to live 7.4 [95% CI 3.4 - 11.7] more years than a man with diabetes, and a woman without diabetes could expect to live 3.9 [95% CI: 0.8 - 6.9] more years than a woman with diabetes. Individuals with diabetes lived proportionately more years subject to disability than individuals without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: We find large and important decrements in disability-free aging for people with diabetes in South Africa. This finding should motivate efforts to strengthen prevention and treatment efforts for diabetes and its complications for older adults in this setting.

Differences in healthy longevity by HIV status and viral load among older South African adults: an observational cohort modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The population of people living with HIV in South Africa is rapidly ageing due to increased survivorship attributable to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We sought to understand how the combined effects of HIV and ART have led to differences in healthy longevity by HIV status and viral suppression in this context. METHODS: In this observational cohort modelling study we use longitudinal data from the 2015 baseline interview (from Nov 13, 2014, to Nov 30, 2015) and the 2018 longitudinal follow-up interview (from Oct 12, 2018, to Nov 7, 2019) of the population-based study Health and Ageing in Africa: a Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) to estimate life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) of adults aged 40 years and older in rural South Africa. Respondents who consented to HIV testing, responded to survey questions on disability, and who were either interviewed in both surveys or who died between survey waves were included in the analysis. We estimate life expectancy and DFLE by HIV status and viral suppression (defined as <200 copies per mL) using Markov-based microsimulation. FINDINGS: Among the 4322 eligible participants from the HAALSI study, we find a clear gradient in remaining life expectancy and DFLE based on HIV serostatus and viral suppression. At age 45 years, the life expectancy of a woman without HIV was 33·2 years (95% CI 32·0-35·0), compared with 31·6 years (29·2-34·1) a woman with virally suppressed HIV, and 26·4 years (23·1-29·1) for a woman with unsuppressed HIV; life expectancy for a 45 year old man without HIV was 27·2 years (25·8-29·1), compared with 24·1 years (20·9-27·2) for a man with virally suppressed HIV, and 17·4 years (15·0-20·3) for a man with unsuppressed HIV. Men and women with viral suppression could expect to live nearly as many years of DFLE as HIV-uninfected individuals at ages 45 years and 65 years. INTERPRETATION: These results highlight the tremendous benefits of ART for population health in high-HIV-prevalence contexts and reinforce the need for continued work in making ART treatment accessible to ageing populations. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Expansion, Compression, Neither, Both? Divergent Patterns in Healthy, Disability-Free, and Morbidity-Free Life Expectancy Across U.S. Birth Cohorts, 1998-2016.

This article explores how patterns of health, morbidity, and disability have changed across successive generations of older adults in the United States. Using a novel method for comparing state-specific partial life expectancies-that is, total life expectancy (LE), and health expectancies (HEs) in different health states, bounded between two ages-I explore changes in healthy life expectancy across successive birth cohorts of the U.S. population. Results show that little compression of disability is occurring across cohorts, LE with chronic morbidities has expanded considerably, and self-rated health is improving across cohorts, but only at ages 70+. These findings suggest that successive cohorts in the U.S. population may be on divergent paths in terms of late-life health and well-being. Exploring heterogeneity in these patterns, I find that less educated individuals have substantially lower partial LE and disability-free LE than those with more schooling, and that disability-free life is declining among those with less than a high school diploma. Differences in HEs are pervasive across racial and ethnic groups, and both disabled LE and unhealthy LE are expanding in some disadvantaged subgroups. The continued increases in partial LE with morbidities across successive cohorts, and the broad stagnation of disability-free and healthy LE, present a broad view of a U.S. population in which successive generations are not living healthier lives.

Life Course Socioeconomic Status and Healthy Longevity in China.

In 2020, China's population aged 60 or older exceeded 264 million, representing 25% of the global population in that age-group. Older adults in China experienced periods of dramatic political and social unrest in early life, as well as economic transformations leading to drastic improvements in living standards during adulthood and older age. However, the implications of life course socioeconomic status (SES) trajectories for healthy longevity in later life have not been systematically studied in China. We utilize data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to comprehensively investigate how early-life conditions and adult SES combine to influence healthy longevity in later life. We find that both childhood and adulthood SES are associated with late-life health. The largest disparities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free LE are found between those with persistently low SES throughout life and those with consistently high SES. At age 45, the gap in total LE between the most advantaged and least advantaged groups is six years for men and five years for women. Despite China's major policy changes prioritizing equity in income and health care in recent decades, our findings suggest that dramatic health inequalities among older adults remain. Our findings extend the literature on the effect of socioeconomic patterns across the life course on gradients in later-life health and highlight continuing disparities in healthy longevity among older adults in China.

The Components of Change in Population Growth Rates.

The demographic balance equation relates the population growth rate with crude rates of fertility, mortality, and net migration. All these rates refer to changes occurring between two time points, say, t and t + h. However, this fundamental balance equation overlooks the contribution of historical fertility, mortality, and migration in explaining these population counts. Because of this, the balance equation only partially explains a change in growth rate between time t and t + h as it does not include the contribution of historical population trends in shaping the population at time t. The overall population growth rate can also be expressed as the weighted average of age-specific growth rates. In this article, we develop a method to decompose the historical drivers of current population growth by recursively employing the variable-r method on the population's average age-specific growth rates. We illustrate our method by identifying the unique contributions of survival progress, migration change, and fertility decline for current population growth in Denmark, England and Wales, France, and the United States. Our results show that survival progress is mainly having an effect on population growth at older ages, although accounting for indirect historical effects illuminates additional contributions at younger ages. Migration is particularly important in Denmark and England and Wales. Finally, we find that across all populations studied, historical fertility decline plays the largest role in shaping recent reductions in population growth rates.

Changes in Life Expectancy and Disability-Free Life Expectancy in Successive Birth Cohorts of Older Cancer Survivors: A Longitudinal Modeling Analysis of the US Health and Retirement Study.

The population of older cancer survivors in the United States is rapidly growing. However, little is currently known about how the health of older cancer survivors has changed over time and across successive birth cohorts. Using data from the US Health and Retirement Study, we parameterized a demographic microsimulation model to compare partial cohort life expectancy (LE) and disability-free LE for US men and women without cancer and with prevalent and incident cancer diagnoses for 4 successive 10-year birth cohorts, born 1918-1927 to 1948-1957. Disability was defined as being disabled in ≥1 activity of daily living. These cohorts had midpoint ages of 55-64, 65-74, and 75-84 years during the periods 1998-2008 (the "early" period) and 2008-2018 (the "later" period). Across all cohorts and periods, those with incident cancer had the lowest LE, followed by those with prevalent cancer and cancer-free individuals. We observed declines in partial LE and an expansion of life spent disabled among more recent birth cohorts of prevalent-cancer survivors. Our findings suggest that advances in treatments that prolong life for individual cancer patients may have led to population-level declines in conditional LE and disability-free LE across successive cohorts of older cancer survivors.

Multimorbidity and mortality in an older, rural black South African population cohort with high prevalence of HIV findings from the HAALSI Study.

OBJECTIVES: Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in high-income countries. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between multimorbidity (≥2 of the following chronic medical conditions: hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, anaemia, HIV, angina, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, alcohol dependence) and all-cause mortality in an older, rural black South African population. We further investigated the relationship between HIV multimorbidity (HIV as part of the multimorbidity cluster) and mortality, while testing for the effect of frailty in all models. DESIGN: Population cohort study. SETTING: Agincourt subdistrict of Mpumalanga province, South Africa. PARTICIPANTS: 4455 individuals (54.7% female), aged ≥40 years (median age 61 years, IQR 52-71) and resident in the study area. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was time to death and the secondary outcome measure was likelihood of death within 2 years of the initial study visit. Mortality was determined during annual population surveillance updates. RESULTS: 3157 individuals (70.9%) had multimorbidity; 29% of these had HIV. In models adjusted for age and sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity was associated with greater risk of death (women: HR 1.72; 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.50; men: HR 1.46; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.95) and greater odds of dying within 2 years (women: OR 2.34; 95% CI: 1.32 to 4.16; men: OR 1.51; 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.24). HIV multimorbidity was associated with increased risk of death compared with non-HIV multimorbidity in men (HR 1.93; 95% CI: 1.05 to 3.54), but was not statistically significant in women (HR 1.85; 95% CI: 0.85 to 4.04); when detectable, HIV viral loads were higher in men (p=0.021). Further adjustment for frailty slightly attenuated the associations between multimorbidity and mortality risk (women: HR 1.55; 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.26; men: HR 1.36; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.82), but slightly increased associations between HIV multimorbidity and mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in this older black South African population. Health systems which currently focus on HIV should be reorganised to optimise identification and management of other prevalent chronic diseases.

Developing and evaluating a frailty index for older South Africans-findings from the HAALSI study.

BACKGROUND: despite rapid population ageing, few studies have investigated frailty in older people in sub-Saharan Africa. We tested a cumulative deficit frailty index in a population of older people from rural South Africa. METHODS: analysis of cross-sectional data from the Health and Ageing in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of an INDEPTH Community (HAALSI) study. We used self-reported diagnoses, symptoms, activities of daily living, objective physiological indices and blood tests to calculate a 32-variable cumulative deficit frailty index. We fitted Cox proportional hazards models to test associations between frailty category and all-cause mortality. We tested the discriminant ability of the frailty index to predict one-year mortality alone and in addition to age and sex. RESULTS: in total 3,989 participants were included in the analysis, mean age 61 years (standard deviation 13); 2,175 (54.5%) were women. The median frailty index was 0.13 (interquartile range 0.09-0.19); Using population-specific cutoffs, 557 (14.0%) had moderate frailty and 263 (6.6%) had severe frailty. All-cause mortality risk was related to frailty severity independent of age and sex (hazard ratio per 0.01 increase in frailty index: 1.06 [95% confidence interval 1.04-1.07]). The frailty index alone showed moderate discrimination for one-year mortality: c-statistic 0.68-0.76; combining the frailty index with age and sex improved performance (c-statistic 0.77-0.81). CONCLUSION: frailty measured by cumulative deficits is common and predicts mortality in a rural population of older South Africans. The number of measures needed may limit utility in resource-poor settings.

Impairment in Activities of Daily Living and Unmet Need for Care Among Older Adults: A Population-Based Study From Burkina Faso.

OBJECTIVES: The importance of impairment in performing activities of daily living (ADL) is likely to increase in sub-Saharan Africa because few care options for affected people exist. This study investigated the prevalence of ADL impairment, the extent to which care need was met, and described characteristics of people with ADL impairment and unmet need in Burkina Faso. METHODS: This study used data from the Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna Heidelberg Aging Study, a population-based study among 3,026 adults aged older than 40 years conducted in rural Burkina Faso. Information on 6 basic ADL items was sought, with a follow-up question asking whether care need was not met, partially met, or met. Bivariable correlations and multivariable logistic regression were used to determine sociodemographic and health characteristics associated with ADL impairment and unmet need. RESULTS: ADL impairment of any kind was reported by 1,202 (39.7%) respondents and was associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio: 1.05 [95% CI: 1.04-1.06]), being a woman (1.33 [1.06-1.60]), and reporting depressive symptoms (1.90 [1.65-2.18]). Among those with ADL impairment, 67.8% had at least one unmet need. Severe ADL impairment was found in 202 (6.7%) respondents, who reported a lower prevalence of unmet need (43.1%). Severe ADL impairment was associated with depressive symptoms (2.55 [2.11-3.07]) to a stronger degree than any ADL impairment. DISCUSSION: Prevalence of ADL impairment and unmet need was high in this setting. Variation in impairment across the population highlighted key groups for future interventions. Unmet need for care was highest in middle-aged adults, indicating a gap in care provision.

Depressive symptoms and cardiovascular disease: a population-based study of older adults in rural Burkina Faso.

OBJECTIVES: To contribute to the current understanding of depressive disorders in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries by examining the association of depressive symptoms with cardiovascular and cardiometabolic conditions in a population-based study of middle-aged and older adults in rural Burkina Faso. SETTING: This study was conducted in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System in north-western Burkina Faso, in a mixed rural and small-town environment. The data were obtained between May and July 2018. PARTICIPANTS: Consenting adults over 40 years of age (n=3026). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire depression module (PHQ-9). Chronic cardiometabolic conditions were assessed via a lipid panel and glycated haemoglobin measures from serum, alongside anthropometry and blood pressure measurements and a self-reported questionnaire. Multivariable linear regression was used to test the relationship between depressive symptoms and cardiovascular/cardiometabolic conditions after controlling for sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: Depressive symptoms were not associated with the metabolic syndrome (standardised beta coefficient=0.00 (95% CI -0.04 to 0.03)), hypertension (beta=0.01 (95% CI -0.02 to 0.05)), diabetes mellitus (beta=0.00 (95% CI -0.04 to 0.04)) and past diagnosis of elevated blood pressure or blood sugar. Prior stroke diagnosis (beta=0.04 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.07)) or heart disease (beta=0.08 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.11)) was positively associated with the standardised PHQ-9 score as were self-reported stroke symptoms. CONCLUSION: Objectively measured cardiometabolic conditions had no significant association with depressive symptoms in an older, poor, rural SSA population, in contrast to observations in high income countries. However, consequences of cardiovascular disease such as stroke and heart attack were associated with depressive symptoms in older adults in Burkina Faso.

Cohort profile: the mature adults cohort of the Malawi longitudinal study of families and health (MLSFH-MAC).

PURPOSE: The Mature Adults Cohort of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH-MAC) contributes to global ageing studies by providing a rare opportunity to study the processes of individual and population ageing, the public health and social challenges associated with ageing and the coincident shifts in disease burdens, in a low-income, high HIV prevalence, sub-Saharan African (SSA) context. PARTICIPANTS: The MLSFH-MAC is an open population-based cohort study of mature adults aged 45+ years living in rural communities in three districts in Malawi. Enrolment at baseline is 1266 individuals in 2012. Follow-ups were in 2013, 2017 and 2018 when the cohort size reached 1626 participants in 2018. FINDINGS TO DATE: Survey instruments cover ageing-related topics such as cognitive and mental health, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and related health literacy, subjective survival expectations, measured biomarkers including HIV, grip strength, hypertension, fasting glucose, body mass index (BMI), broad individual-level and household-level social and economic information, a 2018 qualitative survey of mature adults and community officials, 2019 surveys of village heads, healthcare facilities and healthcare providers in the MLSFH-MAC study areas. Across many domains, MLSFH-MAC allows for comparative research with global ageing studies through harmonised measures and instruments. Key findings to date include a high prevalence of depression and anxiety among older adults, evidence for rapid declines in cognitive health with age, a low incidence of HIV among mature adults, rising prevalence of HIV due to increased survival of HIV-positive individuals and poor physical health with high NCD prevalence. FUTURE PLANS: An additional wave of MLSFH-MAC is forthcoming in 2021, and future expansions of the cohort are planned. MLSFH-MAC data will also be publicly released and will provide a wealth of information unprecedented for ageing studies in a low-income SSA context that broadly represents the socioeconomic environment of millions of individuals in south-eastern Africa.