A skewed literature: Few studies evaluate the contribution of predation-risk effects to natural field patterns.

A narrative in ecology is that prey modify traits to reduce predation risk, and the trait modification has costs large enough to cause ensuing demographic, trophic and ecosystem consequences, with implications for conservation, management and agriculture. But ecology has a long history of emphasising that quantifying the importance of an ecological process ultimately requires evidence linking a process to unmanipulated field patterns. We suspected that such process-linked-to-pattern (PLP) studies were poorly represented in the predation risk literature, which conflicts with the confidence often given to the importance of risk effects. We reviewed 29 years of the ecological literature which revealed that there are well over 4000 articles on risk effects. Of those, 349 studies examined risk effects on prey fitness measures or abundance (i.e., non-consumptive effects) of which only 26 were PLP studies, while 275 studies examined effects on other interacting species (i.e., trait-mediated indirect effects) of which only 35 were PLP studies. PLP studies were narrowly focused taxonomically and included only three that examined unmanipulated patterns of prey abundance. Before concluding a widespread and influential role of predation-risk effects, more attention must be given to linking the process of risk effects to unmanipulated patterns observed across diverse ecosystems.

An assessment of statistical methods for nonindependent data in ecological meta-analyses.

In ecological meta-analyses, nonindependence among observed effect sizes from the same source paper is common. If not accounted for, nonindependence can seriously undermine inferences. We compared the performance of four meta-analysis methods that attempt to address such nonindependence and the standard random-effect model that ignores nonindependence. We simulated data with various types of within-paper nonindependence, and assessed the standard deviation of the estimated mean effect size and Type I error rate of each method. Although all four methods performed substantially better than the standard random-effects model that assumes independence, there were differences in performance among the methods. A two-step method that first summarizes the multiple observed effect sizes per paper using a weighted mean and then analyzes the reduced data in a standard random-effects model, and a robust variance estimation method performed consistently well. A hierarchical model with both random paper and study effects gave precise estimates but had a higher Type I error rates, possibly reflecting limitations of currently available meta-analysis software. Overall, we advocate the use of the two-step method with a weighted paper mean and the robust variance estimation method as reliable ways to handle within-paper nonindependence in ecological meta-analyses.

A framework and standardized terminology to facilitate the study of predation-risk effects.

The very presence of predators can strongly influence flexible prey traits such as behavior, morphology, life history, and physiology. In a rapidly growing body of literature representing diverse ecological systems, these trait (or "fear") responses have been shown to influence prey fitness components and density, and to have indirect effects on other species. However, this broad and exciting literature is burdened with inconsistent terminology that is likely hindering the development of inclusive frameworks and general advances in ecology. We examine the diverse terminology used in the literature, and discuss pros and cons of the many terms used. Common problems include the same term being used for different processes, and many different terms being used for the same process. To mitigate terminological barriers, we developed a conceptual framework that explicitly distinguishes the multiple predation-risk effects studied. These multiple effects, along with suggested standardized terminology, are risk-induced trait responses (i.e., effects on prey traits), interaction modifications (i.e., effects on prey-other-species interactions), nonconsumptive effects (i.e., effects on the fitness and density of the prey), and trait-mediated indirect effects (i.e., the effects on the fitness and density of other species). We apply the framework to three well studied systems to highlight how it can illuminate commonalities and differences among study systems. By clarifying and elucidating conceptually similar processes, the framework and standardized terminology can facilitate communication of insights and methodologies across systems and foster cross-disciplinary perspectives.

Non-consumptive predator effects on prey population size: A dearth of evidence.

There is a large and growing interest in non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of predators. Diverse and extensive evidence shows that predation risk directly influences prey traits, such as behaviour, morphology and physiology, which in turn, may cause a reduction in prey fitness components (i.e. growth rate, survival and reproduction). An intuitive expectation is that NCEs that reduce prey fitness will extend to alter population growth rate and therefore population size. However, our intensive literature search yielded only 10 studies that examined how predator-induced changes in prey traits translate to changes in prey population size. Further, the scant evidence for risk-induced changes on prey population size have been generated from studies that were performed in very controlled systems (mesocosm and laboratory), which do not have the complexity and feedbacks of natural settings. Thus, although likely that predation risk alone can alter prey population size, there is little direct empirical evidence that demonstrates that it does. There are also clear reasons that risk effects on population size may be much smaller than the responses on phenotype and fitness components that are typically measured, magnifying the need to show, rather than infer, effects on population size. Herein we break down the process of how predation risk influences prey population size into a chain of events (predation risk affects prey traits, which affect prey fitness components and population growth rate, which affect prey population size), and highlight the complexity of each transition. We illustrate how the outcomes of these transitions are not straightforward, and how environmental context strongly dictates the direction and magnitude of effects. Indeed, the high variance in prey responses is reflected in the variance of results reported in the few studies that have empirically quantified risk effects on population size. It is therefore a major challenge to predict population effects given the complexity of how environmental context interacts with predation risk and prey responses. We highlight the critical need to appreciate risk effects at each level in the chain of events, and that changes at one level cannot be assumed to translate into changes in the next because of the interplay between risk, prey responses, and the environment. The gaps in knowledge we illuminate underscore the need for more evidence to substantiate the claim that predation risk effects extend to prey population size. The lacunae we identify should inspire future studies on the impact of predation risk on population-level responses in free-living animals.

Opportunities for behavioral rescue under rapid environmental change.

Laboratory measurements of physiological and demographic tolerances are important in understanding the impact of climate change on species diversity; however, it has been recognized that forecasts based solely on these laboratory estimates overestimate risk by omitting the capacity for species to utilize microclimatic variation via behavioral adjustments in activity patterns or habitat choice. The complex, and often context-dependent nature, of microclimate utilization has been an impediment to the advancement of general predictive models. Here, we overcome this impediment and estimate the potential impact of warming on the fitness of ectotherms using a benefit/cost trade-off derived from the simple and broadly documented thermal performance curve and a generalized cost function. Our framework reveals that, for certain environments, the cost of behavioral thermoregulation can be reduced as warming occurs, enabling behavioral buffering (e.g., the capacity for behavior to ameliorate detrimental impacts) and "behavioral rescue" from extinction in extreme cases. By applying our framework to operative temperature and physiological data collected at an extremely fine spatial scale in an African lizard, we show that new behavioral opportunities may emerge. Finally, we explore large-scale geographic differences in the impact of behavior on climate-impact projections using a global dataset of 38 insect species. These multiple lines of inference indicate that understanding the existing relationship between thermal characteristics (e.g., spatial configuration, spatial heterogeneity, and modal temperature) is essential for improving estimates of extinction risk.

Pharmaceuticals May Disrupt Natural Chemical Information Flows and Species Interactions in Aquatic Systems: Ideas and Perspectives on a Hidden Global Change.

Pharmaceuticals consumption by humans and animals is increasing substantially, leading to unprecedented levels of these compounds in aquatic environments worldwide. Recent findings that concentrations reach levels that can directly have negative effects on organisms are important per se, but also sound an alarm for other potentially more pervasive effects that arise from the interconnected nature of ecological communities. Aquatic organisms use chemical cues to navigate numerous challenges, including the location of mates and food, and the avoidance of natural enemies. Low concentrations of pharmaceuticals can disrupt this "smellscape" of information leading to maladaptive responses. Furthermore, direct effects of pharmaceuticals on the traits and abundance of one species can cascade through a community, indirectly affecting other species. We review mechanisms by which pharmaceuticals in surface waters can disrupt natural chemical information flows and species interactions. Pharmaceuticals form a new class of chemical threats, which could have far-reaching implications for ecosystem functioning and conservation management.

Gape-limited predators as agents of selection on the defensive morphology of an invasive invertebrate.

Invasive species have widespread and pronounced effects on ecosystems and adaptive evolution of invaders is often considered responsible for their success. Despite the potential importance of adaptation to invasion, we still have limited knowledge of the agents of natural selection on invasive species. Bythotrephes longimanus, a cladoceran zooplankton, invaded multiple Canadian Shield lakes over the past several decades. Bythotrephes have a conspicuous caudal process (tail spine) that provides a morphological defense against fish predation. We measured viability selection on the longest component of the Bythotrephes spine, the distal spine segment, through a comparison of the lengths of first and second instar Bythotrephes collected from lakes differing in the dominance of gape-limited predation (GLP) and nongape-limited predation (NGLP) by fish. We found that natural selection varied by predator gape-limitation, with strong selection (selection intensity: 0.20-0.79) for increased distal spine length in lakes dominated by GLP, and no significant selection in lakes dominated by NGLP. Further, distal spine length was 17% longer in lakes dominated by GLP, suggesting the possibility of local adaptation. As all study lakes were invaded less than 20 years prior to our collections, our results suggest rapid divergence in defensive morphology in response to selection from fish predators.

Plastic response to a proxy cue of predation risk when direct cues are unreliable.

Responses to proximate cues that directly affect fitness or cues directly released by selective agents are well-documented forms of phenotypic plasticity. For example, to reduce predation risk, prey change phenotype in response to light level (e.g., moon phase) when light affects predation risk from visual predators, and to chemical cues (kairomones) released by predators. Less well understood is the potential for organisms to perceive predation risk through "proxy cues": proximate cues that correlate with, but do not directly affect predation risk. Previous field studies indicate that body and spine length of an invasive cladoceran in Lake Michigan, Bythotrephes longimanus (the spiny water flea), increase during the growing season, coincident with a decrease in clutch size. Although the cause of seasonal trait changes is not known, changes are associated with warmer water temperature and increased predation risk from gape-limited fish (i.e., fish whose ability to consume Bythotrephes is limited by mouth size). Using a laboratory experiment, we found no effect of fish (Perca flavescens) kairomones on Bythotrephes morphology or life history. In contrast, higher water temperature led to longer absolute spine and body length, increased investment in morphological defense of offspring (measured as the ratio of spine-to-body length), and decreased clutch size and age at reproduction. These plastic responses are unlikely to be adaptive to temperature per se, but rather our findings indicate that temperature serves as a proxy cue of fish predation risk. Temperature correlates with risk of gape-limited fish predation due to growth of fish from larval stages incapable of consuming Bythotrephes early in the season, to larger sizes by midseason increasingly capable of consuming Bythotrephes, but limited by gape size to consuming smaller individuals. We argue that for Bythotrephes, temperature is a more reliable cue of predation risk than fish kairomones, because fish kairomones are present throughout the season due to continual presence of non-gape-limited adult fish, to which plastic response would have little effect. Organisms may, therefore, not only respond to changes in an environmental factor because the factor directly affects risk, but also when the environmental factor serves as a proxy signaling change in predation risk.

Finely tuned response of native prey to an invasive predator in a freshwater system.

Lack of shared evolutionary history reduces the expectation that native prey will detect and respond to invasive predators. Four mechanisms may explain the adaptive response that is nevertheless seen in various systems: prey may perceive the invasive predator through cue similarity with preexisting predators, cues of conspecifics eaten by the invasive predator, a learned response based on experience with the invasive predator (e.g., cue association), and cues from the invasive predator that are specific to it. We performed laboratory experiments in which zooplankton (Daphnia mendotae) responded adaptively to the zooplanktivore Bythotrephes longimanus (migrating downward), showed no response to taxonomically similar predatory cladocerans, and responded adaptively to more taxonomically distant native fish (migrating downward) and native shrimp (migrating upward). Conspecific cues associated with Bythotrephes predation actually reduced the response of D. mendotae to Bythotrephes. Combined with previous experiments that rule out learning, our experiments rule out the first three mechanisms above, demonstrating that D. mendotae respond to cues specific to and produced directly by Bythotrephes. This finely tuned response may be retained from an ancestral species that coevolved with Bythotrephes in its native range, or may have rapidly evolved due to strong selection by the invasive predator.

Costs of predator-induced phenotypic plasticity: a graphical model for predicting the contribution of nonconsumptive and consumptive effects of predators on prey.

Defensive modifications in prey traits that reduce predation risk can also have negative effects on prey fitness. Such nonconsumptive effects (NCEs) of predators are common, often quite strong, and can even dominate the net effect of predators. We develop an intuitive graphical model to identify and explore the conditions promoting strong NCEs. The model illustrates two conditions necessary and sufficient for large NCEs: (1) trait change has a large cost, and (2) the benefit of reduced predation outweighs the costs, such as reduced growth rate. A corollary condition is that potential predation in the absence of trait change must be large. In fact, the sum total of the consumptive effects (CEs) and NCEs may be any value bounded by the magnitude of the predation rate in the absence of the trait change. The model further illustrates how, depending on the effect of increased trait change on resulting costs and benefits, any combination of strong and weak NCEs and CEs is possible. The model can also be used to examine how changes in environmental factors (e.g., refuge safety) or variation among predator-prey systems (e.g., different benefits of a prey trait change) affect NCEs. Results indicate that simple rules of thumb may not apply; factors that increase the cost of trait change or that increase the degree to which an animal changes a trait, can actually cause smaller (rather than larger) NCEs. We provide examples of how this graphical model can provide important insights for empirical studies from two natural systems. Implementation of this approach will improve our understanding of how and when NCEs are expected to dominate the total effect of predators. Further, application of the models will likely promote a better linkage between experimental and theoretical studies of NCEs, and foster synthesis across systems.

Scaling-up anti-predator phenotypic responses of prey: impacts over multiple generations in a complex aquatic community.

Non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of predators owing to induced changes in prey traits are predicted to influence the structure of ecological communities. However, evidence of the importance of NCEs is limited primarily to simple systems (e.g. two to four species) over relatively short periods (e.g. less than one generation). We examined the NCEs of a fish predator, arising from phenotypic plasticity in zooplankton prey traits, over multiple generations of a diverse zooplankton community. The presence of fish, caged to remove consumptive effects, strongly influenced zooplankton community structure, through both direct and indirect NCE pathways, altering the abundance of many taxa by magnitudes as large as 3 to 10-fold. Presence of fish affected different species of cladocerans and copepods both positively and negatively. A particularly striking result was the reversal of dominance in copepod taxa: presence of fish reduced the ratio of calanoids to cyclopoids from 6.3 to 0.43. Further, the NCE of fish had a strong negative trophic cascade to zooplankton resources (phytoplankton). To our knowledge, this is the first experiment to show that NCEs can influence the abundance of multiple prey species over time spans of multiple prey generations. Our findings demonstrate that adaptive phenotypic plasticity of individuals can scale-up to affect the structure of ecological communities.

Genetic and maternal effects on tail spine and body length in the invasive spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus).

Interest in the evolution of invasive species has grown in recent years, yet few studies have investigated sources of variation in invasive species traits experiencing natural selection. The spiny water flea, Bythotrephes longimanus, is an invasive zooplankton in the Great Lakes that exhibits seasonal changes in tail spine and body length consistent with natural selection. Evolution of Bythotrephes traits, however, depends on the presence and magnitude of quantitative genetic variation, which could change within or across years. Clonal analysis of wild-captured Bythotrephes indicated that variance components for distal spine length were variable among but not within years. Spine length was always heritable but was not always influenced by maternal effects. In contrast, variance components for body length varied both within and among years, but likewise body length was always heritable and not always influenced by maternal effects. Results indicate that important Bythotrephes traits have heritable variation comparable to native species and other invasive species that would enable an evolutionary response to natural selection. This evolutionary capacity could contribute to the widespread success and dramatic effects of Bythotrephes invasion in systems with diverse biotic and abiotic conditions.

Revisiting the classics: considering nonconsumptive effects in textbook examples of predator-prey interactions.

Predator effects on prey dynamics are conventionally studied by measuring changes in prey abundance attributed to consumption by predators. We revisit four classic examples of predator-prey systems often cited in textbooks and incorporate subsequent studies of nonconsumptive effects of predators (NCE), defined as changes in prey traits (e.g., behavior, growth, development) measured on an ecological time scale. Our review revealed that NCE were integral to explaining lynx-hare population dynamics in boreal forests, cascading effects of top predators in Wisconsin lakes, and cascading effects of killer whales and sea otters on kelp forests in nearshore marine habitats. The relative roles of consumption and NCE of wolves on moose and consequent indirect effects on plant communities of Isle Royale depended on climate oscillations. Nonconsumptive effects have not been explicitly tested to explain the link between planktonic alewives and the size structure of the zooplankton, nor have they been invoked to attribute keystone predator status in intertidal communities or elsewhere. We argue that both consumption and intimidation contribute to the total effects of keystone predators, and that characteristics of keystone consumers may differ from those of predators having predominantly NCE. Nonconsumptive effects are often considered as an afterthought to explain observations inconsistent with consumption-based theory. Consequently, NCE with the same sign as consumptive effects may be overlooked, even though they can affect the magnitude, rate, or scale of a prey response to predation and can have important management or conservation implications. Nonconsumptive effects may underlie other classic paradigms in ecology, such as delayed density dependence and predator-mediated prey coexistence. Revisiting classic studies enriches our understanding of predator-prey dynamics and provides compelling rationale for ramping up efforts to consider how NCE affect traditional predator-prey models based on consumption, and to compare the relative magnitude of consumptive and NCE of predators.

Consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of predators on metacommunities of competing prey.

Although predators affect prey both via consumption and by changing prey migration behavior, the interplay between these two effects is rarely incorporated into spatial models of predator-prey dynamics and competition among prey. We develop a model where generalist predators have consumptive effects (i.e., altering the likelihood of local prey extinction) as well as nonconsumptive effects (altering the likelihood of colonization) on spatially separated prey populations (metapopulations). We then extend this model to explore the effects of predators on competition among prey. We find that generalist predators can promote persistence of prey metapopulations by promoting prey colonization, but predators can also hasten system-wide extinction by either increasing local extinction or reducing prey migration. By altering rates of prey migration, predators in one location can exert remote control over prey dynamics in another location via predator-mediated changes in prey flux. Thus, the effect of predators may extend well beyond the proportion of patches they visit. In the context of prey metacommunities, predator-mediated shifts in prey migration and mortality can shift the competition-colonization trade-off among competing prey, leading to changes in the prey community as well as changes in the susceptibility of prey species to habitat loss. Consequently, native prey communities may be susceptible to invasion not only by exotic prey species that experience reduced amounts of mortality from resident predators, but also by exotic prey species that exhibit strong dispersal in response to generalist native predators. Ultimately, our work suggests that the consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of generalist predators may have strong, yet potentially cryptic, effects on competing prey capable of mediating coexistence, fostering invasion, and interacting with anthropogenic habitat alteration.

Mechanisms of nonlethal predator effect on cohort size variation: ecological and evolutionary implications.

Understanding the factors responsible for generating size variation in cohorts of organisms is important for predicting their population and evolutionary dynamics. We group these factors into two broad classes: those due to scaling relationships between growth and size (size-dependent factors), and those due to individual trait differences other than size (size-independent factors; e.g., morphology, behavior, etc.). We develop a framework predicting that the nonlethal presence of predators can have a strong effect on size variation, the magnitude and sign of which depend on the relative influence of both factors. We present experimental results showing that size-independent factors can strongly contribute to size variation in anuran larvae, and that the presence of a larval dragonfly predator reduced expression of these size-independent factors. Further, a review of a number of experiments shows that the effect of this predator on relative size variation of a cohort ranged from negative at low growth rates to positive at high growth rates. At high growth rates, effects of size-dependent factors predominate, and predator presence causes an increase in the scaling of growth rate with size (larger individuals respond less strongly to predator presence than small individuals). Thus predator presence led to an increase in size variation. In contrast, at low growth rates, size-independent factors were relatively more important, and predator presence reduced expression of these size-independent factors. Consequently, predator presence led to a decrease in size variation. Our results therefore indicate a further mechanism whereby nonlethal predator effects can be manifest on prey species performance. These results have strong implications for both ecological and evolutionary processes. Theoretical studies indicate that changes in cohort size variation can have profound effects on population dynamics and stability, and therefore the mere presence of a predator could have important ecological consequences. Further, changes in cohort size variation can have important evolutionary implications through changes in trait heritability.

Large nonlethal effects of an invasive invertebrate predator on zooplankton population growth rate.

We conducted a study to determine the contribution of lethal and nonlethal effects to a predator's net effect on a prey's population growth rate in a natural setting. We focused on the effects of an invasive invertebrate predator, Bythotrephes longimanus, on zooplankton prey populations in Lakes Michigan and Erie. Field data taken at multiple dates and locations in both systems indicated that the prey species Daphnia mendotae, Daphnia retrocurva, and Bosmina longirostris inhabited deeper portions of the water column as Bythotrephes biomass increased, possibly as an avoidance response to predation. This induced migration reduces predation risk but also can reduce birth rate due to exposure to cooler temperatures. We estimated the nonlethal (i.e., resulting from reduced birth rate) and lethal (i.e., consumptive) effects of Bythotrephes on D. mendotae and Bosmina longirostris. These estimates used diel field survey data of the vertical gradient of zooplankton prey density, Bythotrephes density, light intensity, and temperature with growth and predation rate models derived from laboratory studies. Results indicate that nonlethal effects played a substantial role in the net effect of Bythotrephes on several prey population growth rates in the field, with nonlethal effects on the same order of magnitude as or greater (up to 10-fold) than lethal effects. Our results further indicate that invasive species can have strong nonlethal, behaviorally based effects, despite short evolutionary coexistence with prey species.

The effect of size-dependent growth and environmental factors on animal size variability.

The origin of variation in animal growth rate and body size is not well understood but central to ecological and evolutionary processes. We develop a relationship that predicts the change in relative body size variation within a cohort will be approximately equal to the relative change in mean per unit size growth rate, when only size-dependent factors affect growth. When modeling cohort growth, relative size variation decreased, remained unchanged, or increased, as a function of growth rate-size scaling relationships, in a predictable manner. We use the approximation to predict how environmental factors (e.g., resource level) affect body size variation, and verified these predictions numerically for a flexible growth model using a wide range of parameter values. We also explore and discuss the assumptions underlying the approximation. We find that factors that similarly affect mean growth rate may differently affect size variation, and competition may increase body size variation without changing size-independent relationships. We discuss implications of our results to the choice of growth equations used in models where body size variation is an important variable or output.

Phenotypic plasticity opposes species invasions by altering fitness surface.

Understanding species invasion is a central problem in ecology because invasions of exotic species severely impact ecosystems, and because invasions underlie fundamental ecological processes. However, the influence on invasions of phenotypic plasticity, a key component of many species interactions, is unknown. We present a model in which phenotypic plasticity of a resident species increases its ability to oppose invaders, and plasticity of an invader increases its ability to displace residents. Whereas these effects are expected due to increased fitness associated with phenotypic plasticity, the model additionally reveals a new and unforeseen mechanism by which plasticity affects invasions: phenotypic plasticity increases the steepness of the fitness surface, thereby making invasion more difficult, even by phenotypically plastic invaders. Our results should apply to phenotypically plastic responses to any fluctuating environmental factors including predation risk, and to other factors that affect the fitness surface such as the generalism of predators. We extend the results to competition, and argue that phenotypic plasticity's effect on the fitness surface will destabilize coexistence at local scales, but stabilize coexistence at regional scales. Our study emphasizes the need to incorporate variable interaction strengths due to phenotypic plasticity into invasion biology and ecological theory on competition and coexistence in fragmented landscapes.

Experimental and model analyses of the effects of competition on individual size variation in wood frog (Rana sylvatica) tadpoles.

1. Size variation is a ubiquitous feature of animal populations and is predicted to strongly influence species abundance and dynamics; however, the factors that determine size variation are not well understood. 2. In a mesocosm experiment, we found that the relationship between mean and variation in wood frog (Rana sylvatica) tadpole size is qualitatively different at different levels of competition created by manipulating resource supply rates or tadpole density. At low competition, relative size variation (as measured by the coefficient of variation) decreased as a function of mean size, while at high competition, relative size variation increased. Therefore, increased competition magnified differences in individual performance as measured by growth rate. 3. A model was developed to estimate the contribution of size-dependent factors (i.e. based on size alone) and size-independent factors (i.e. resulting from persistent inherent phenotypic differences other than size that affect growth) on the empirical patterns. 4. Model analysis of the low competition treatment indicated that size-dependent factors alone can describe the relationship between mean size and size variation. To fit the data, the size scaling exponent that describes the dependence of growth rate on size was determined. The estimated value, 0-83, is in the range of that derived from physiological studies. 5. At high competition, the model analysis indicated that individual differences in foraging ability, either size-based or due to inherent phenotypic differences (size-independent factors), were much more pronounced than at low competition. The model was used to quantify the changes in size-dependent or size-independent factors that underlie the effect of competition on size-variation. In contrast to results at low competition, parameters derived from physiological studies could not be used to describe the observed relationships. 6. Our experimental and model results elucidate the role of size-dependent and size-independent factors in the development of size variation, and highlight and quantify the context dependence of individual (intrapopulation) differences in competitive abilities.