The lifetime risk of surgery in England: a nationwide observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The average number of times a person will have surgery in their lifetime, and the amount of surgical healthcare resources they use, is unknown. Lifetime risk is a measure of the risk of an average person having a specific event within their lifetime. We report the lifetime risk of surgery and the change observed during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a population cohort study using hospital episode statistics to identify all patients undergoing surgery between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2020, in England. We calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates of surgery and combined these with routinely available population and mortality data from the Office for National Statistics. We computed the probability of requiring surgery stratified by 5-yr epochs (age 0-4 to ≥90 yr). Our primary analysis calculated lifetime risk for all surgery using the life table method. We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, comparing a pre-pandemic and a pandemic period. RESULTS: Between 2016 and 2020, 23 427 531 patients underwent surgery, of which 11 937 062 were first surgeries. The average denominator population for England was 55.9 million. The lifetime risk of first surgery was 60.2% (95% confidence interval 55.1-65.4%) for women and 59.1% (95% confidence interval 54.2-64.1%) for men. The COVID-19 pandemic decreased the lifetime risk of first surgery by 32.3% for women and by 31.7% for men. This estimated lifetime risk should only be applied to the English population. CONCLUSIONS: This population epidemiological analysis suggests that approximately 60% of people in England will undergo surgery in their lifetime.

Family supplemented patient monitoring after surgery (SMARTER): a pilot stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Mortality after surgery in Africa is twice that in high-income countries. Most deaths occur on wards after patients develop postoperative complications. Family members might contribute meaningfully and safely to early recognition of deteriorating patients. METHODS: This was a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of an intervention training family members to support nursing staff to take and record patient vital signs every 4 h after surgery. Adult inpatients across four surgical wards (clusters) in a Ugandan hospital were included. Clusters crossed once from routine care to the SMARTER intervention at monthly intervals. The primary outcome was frequency of vital sign measurements from arrival on the postoperative ward to the end of the third postoperative day (3 days). RESULTS: We enrolled 1395 patients between April and October 2021. Mean age was 28.2 (range 5-89) yr; 85.7% were female. The most common surgical procedure was Caesarean delivery (74.8%). Median (interquartile range) number of sets of vital signs increased from 0 (0-1) in control wards to 3 (1-8) in intervention wards (incident rate ratio 12.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.8-17.5, P<0.001). Mortality was 6/718 (0.84%) patients in the usual care group vs 12/677 (1.77%) in the intervention group (odds ratio 1.32, 95% CI 0.1-14.7, P=0.821). There was no difference in length of hospital stay between groups (usual care: 2 [2-3] days vs intervention: 2 [2-4] days; hazard ratio 1.11, 95% CI 0.84-1.47, P=0.44). CONCLUSIONS: Family member supplemented vital signs monitoring substantially increased the frequency of vital signs after surgery. Care interventions involving family members have the potential to positively impact patient care. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04341558.

Volatile vs Total intravenous Anaesthesia for major non-cardiac surgery: a pragmatic randomised triaL (VITAL).

BACKGROUND: Improving outcomes after surgery is a major public health research priority for patients, clinicians and the NHS. The greatest burden of perioperative complications, mortality and healthcare costs lies amongst the population of patients aged over 50 years who undergo major non-cardiac surgery. The Volatile vs Total Intravenous Anaesthesia for major non-cardiac surgery (VITAL) trial specifically examines the effect of anaesthetic technique on key patient outcomes: quality of recovery after surgery (quality of recovery after anaesthesia, patient satisfaction and major post-operative complications), survival and patient safety. METHODS: A multi-centre pragmatic efficient randomised trial with health economic evaluation comparing total intravenous anaesthesia with volatile-based anaesthesia in adults (aged 50 and over) undergoing elective major non-cardiac surgery under general anaesthesia. DISCUSSION: Given the very large number of patients exposed to general anaesthesia every year, even small differences in outcome between the two techniques could result in substantial excess harm. Results from the VITAL trial will ensure patients can benefit from the very safest anaesthesia care, promoting an early return home, reducing healthcare costs and maximising the health benefits of surgical treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN62903453. September 09, 2021.

Protocolized care pathways in emergency general surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with significant postoperative morbidity and mortality. The delivery of standardized pathways in this setting may have the potential to transform clinical care and improve patient outcomes. METHODS: The OVID SP versions of MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched between January 1950 and October 2022. All randomized and non-randomized cohort studies comparing protocolized care streams with standard care protocols in adult patients (>18 years old) undergoing major emergency abdominal surgery with 30-day follow-up data were included. Studies were excluded if they reported on standardized care protocols in the trauma or elective setting. Outcomes assessed included length of stay, 30-day postoperative morbidity, 30-day postoperative mortality and 30-day readmission and reoperations rates. Risk of bias was assessed using ROBINS-I for non-randomized studies and RoB-2 for randomized controlled trials. Meta-analysis was performed using random effects modelling. RESULTS: Seventeen studies including 20 927 patients were identified, with 12 359 patients undergoing protocolized care pathways and 8568 patients undergoing standard care pathways. Thirteen unique protocolized pathways were identified, with a median of eight components (range 6-15), with compliance of 24-100%. Protocolized care pathways were associated with a shorter hospital stay compared to standard care pathways (mean difference -2.47, 95% c.i. -4.01 to -0.93, P = 0.002). Protocolized care pathways had no impact on postoperative mortality (OR 0.87, 95% c.i. 0.41 to 1.87, P = 0.72). A reduction in specific postoperative complications was observed, including postoperative pneumonia (OR 0.42 95% c.i. 0.24 to 0.73, P = 0.002) and surgical site infection (OR 0.34, 95% c.i. 0.21 to 0.55, P < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Protocolized care pathways in the emergency setting currently lack standardization, with variable components and low compliance; however, despite this they are associated with short-term clinical benefits.

Clinical context and communication in shared decision-making about major surgery: Findings from a qualitative study with colorectal, orthopaedic and cardiac patients.

Increasing numbers of older people undergo major surgery in the United Kingdom (UK), with many at high risk of complications due to age, co-morbidities or frailty. This article reports on a study of such patients and their clinicians engaged in shared decision-making. Shared decision-making is a collaborative approach that seeks to value and centre patients' preferences, potentially addressing asymmetries of knowledge and power between clinicians and patients by countering medical authority with greater patient empowerment. We studied shared decision-making practices in the context of major surgery by recruiting 16 patients contemplating either colorectal, cardiac or joint replacement surgery in the UK National Health Service (NHS). Over 18 months 2019-2020, we observed and video-recorded decision-making consultations, studied the organisational and clinical context for consultations, and interviewed patients and clinicians about their experiences of making decisions. Linguistic ethnography, the study of communication and interaction in context, guided us to analyse the interplay between interactions (during consultations between clinicians, patients and family members) and clinical and organisational features of the contexts for those interactions. We found that the framing of consultations as being about life-saving or life-enhancing procedures was important in producing three different genres of consultations focused variously on: resolving problems, deliberation of options and evaluation of benefits of surgery. We conclude that medical authority persists, but can be used to create more deliberative opportunities for decision-making through amending the context for consultations in addition to adopting appropriate communication practices during surgical consultations.

Erratum to "Exploring the cost-effectiveness of high versus low perioperative fraction of inspired oxygen in the prevention of surgical site infections among abdominal surgery patients in three low- and middle-income countries" [BJA Open 7 (2023) 100207].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.bjao.2023.100207.].

Erratum to 'Exploring the cost-effectiveness of high versus low perioperative fraction of inspired oxygen in the prevention of surgical site infections among abdominal surgery patients in three low- and middle-income countries' [BJA Open 7 (2023) 100207].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.bjao.2023.100207.].

Preoperative N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and myocardial injury after stopping or continuing renin-angiotensin system inhibitors in noncardiac surgery: a prespecified analysis of a phase 2 randomised controlled multicentre trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with elevated preoperative plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP >100 pg ml-1) experience more complications after noncardiac surgery. Individuals prescribed renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors for cardiometabolic disease are at particular risk of perioperative myocardial injury and complications. We hypothesised that stopping RAS inhibitors before surgery increases the risk of perioperative myocardial injury, depending on preoperative risk stratified by plasma NT-proBNP concentrations. METHODS: In a preplanned analysis of a phase 2a trial in six UK centres, patients ≥60 yr old undergoing elective noncardiac surgery were randomly assigned either to stop or continue RAS inhibitors before surgery. The pharmacokinetic profile of individual RAS inhibitors determined for how long they were stopped before surgery. The primary outcome, masked to investigators, clinicians, and patients, was myocardial injury (plasma high-sensitivity troponin-T ≥15 ng L-1 or a ≥5 ng L-1 increase, when preoperative high-sensitivity troponin-T ≥15 ng L-1) within 48 h after surgery. The co-exposures of interest were preoperative plasma NT-proBNP (< or >100 pg ml -1) and stopping or continuing RAS inhibitors. RESULTS: Of 241 participants, 101 (41.9%; mean age 71 [7] yr; 48% females) had preoperative NT-proBNP >100 pg ml -1 (median 339 [160-833] pg ml-1), of whom 9/101 (8.9%) had a formal diagnosis of cardiac failure. Myocardial injury occurred in 63/101 (62.4%) subjects with NT-proBNP >100 pg ml-1, compared with 45/140 (32.1%) subjects with NT-proBNP <100 pg ml -1 {odds ratio (OR) 3.50 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.05-5.99); P<0.0001}. For subjects with preoperative NT-proBNP <100 pg ml-1, 30/75 (40%) who stopped RAS inhibitors had myocardial injury, compared with 15/65 (23.1%) who continued RAS inhibitors (OR for stopping 2.22 [95% CI 1.06-4.65]; P=0.03). For preoperative NT-proBNP >100 pg ml-1, myocardial injury rates were similar regardless of stopping (62.2%) or continuing (62.5%) RAS inhibitors (OR for stopping 0.98 [95% CI 0.44-2.22]). CONCLUSIONS: Stopping renin-angiotensin system inhibitors in lower-risk patients (preoperative NT-proBNP <100 pg ml -1) increased the likelihood of myocardial injury before noncardiac surgery.

Creatine supplementation for optimization of physical function in the patient at risk of functional disability: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of creatine replacement through supplementation for the optimization of physical function in the population at risk of functional disability is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and CINAHL from inception to November 2022. Studies included were randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing creatine supplementation with placebos in older adults and adults with chronic disease. The primary outcome was physical function measured by the sit-to-stand test after pooling data using random-effects modeling. We also performed a Bayesian meta-analysis to describe the treatment effect in probability terms. Secondary outcomes included other measures of physical function, muscle function, and body composition. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. RESULTS: We identified 33 RCTs, comprising 1076 participants. From six trials reporting the primary outcome, the pooled standardized mean difference (SMD) was 0.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01-1.00; I2 = 62%; P = 0.04); using weakly informative priors, the posterior probability that creatine supplementation improves physical function was 66.7%. Upper-body muscle strength (SMD: 0.25; 95% CI: 0.06-0.44; I2 = 0%; P = 0.01), handgrip strength (SMD 0.23; 95% CI: 0.01-0.45; I2 = 0%; P = 0.04), and lean tissue mass (MD 1.08 kg; 95% CI: 0.77-1.38; I2 = 26%; P < 0.01) improved with creatine supplementation. The quality of evidence for all outcomes was low or very low because of a high risk of bias. CONCLUSION: Creatine supplementation improves sit-to-stand performance, muscle function, and lean tissue mass. It is crucial to conduct high-quality prospective RCTs to confirm these hypotheses (PROSPERO number, CRD42023354929).

Method of Anesthesia and Perioperative Risk Factors, Maternal Anesthesia Complications, and Neonatal Mortality Following Cesarean Delivery in Africa: A Substudy of a 7-Day Prospective Observational Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) found that maternal mortality following cesarean delivery in Africa is 50 times higher than in high-income countries, and associated with obstetric hemorrhage and anesthesia complications. Mothers who died were more likely to receive general anesthesia (GA). The associations between GA versus spinal anesthesia (SA) and preoperative risk factors, maternal anesthesia complications, and neonatal outcomes following cesarean delivery in Africa are unknown. METHODS: This is a secondary explanatory analysis of 3792 patients undergoing cesarean delivery in ASOS, a prospective observational cohort study, across 22 African countries. The primary aim was to estimate the association between preoperative risk factors and the outcome of the method of anesthesia delivered. Secondary aims were to estimate the association between the method of anesthesia and the outcomes (1) maternal intraoperative hypotension, (2) severe maternal anesthesia complications, and (3) neonatal mortality. Generalized linear mixed models adjusting for obstetric gravidity and gestation, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) category, urgency of surgery, maternal comorbidities, fetal distress, and level of anesthesia provider were used. RESULTS: Of 3709 patients, SA was performed in 2968 (80%) and GA in 741 (20%). Preoperative factors independently associated with GA for cesarean delivery were gestational age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.093; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.052-1.135), ASA categories III (aOR, 11.84; 95% CI, 2.93-46.31) and IV (aOR, 11.48; 95% CI, 2.93-44.93), eclampsia (aOR, 3.92; 95% CI, 2.18-7.06), placental abruption (aOR, 6.23; 95% CI, 3.36-11.54), and ruptured uterus (aOR, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.36-9.63). SA was administered to 48 of 94 (51.1%) patients with eclampsia, 12 of 28 (42.9%) with cardiac disease, 14 of 19 (73.7%) with preoperative sepsis, 48 of 76 (63.2%) with antepartum hemorrhage, 30 of 55 (54.5%) with placenta previa, 33 of 78 (42.3%) with placental abruption, and 12 of 29 (41.4%) with a ruptured uterus. The composite maternal outcome "all anesthesia complications" was more frequent in GA than SA (9/741 [1.2%] vs 3/2968 [0.1%], P < .001). The unadjusted neonatal mortality was higher with GA than SA (65/662 [9.8%] vs 73/2669 [2.7%], P < .001). The adjusted analyses demonstrated no association between method of anesthesia and (1) intraoperative maternal hypotension and (2) neonatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of patients undergoing anesthesia for cesarean delivery in Africa indicated patients more likely to receive GA. Anesthesia complications and neonatal mortality were more frequent following GA. SA was often administered to high-risk patients, including those with eclampsia or obstetric hemorrhage. Training in the principles of selection of method of anesthesia, and the skills of safe GA and neonatal resuscitation, is recommended.

Discontinuation vs. continuation of renin-angiotensin system inhibition before non-cardiac surgery: the SPACE trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Haemodynamic instability is associated with peri-operative myocardial injury, particularly in patients receiving renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors (angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers). Whether stopping RAS inhibitors to minimise hypotension, or continuing RAS inhibitors to avoid hypertension, reduces peri-operative myocardial injury remains unclear. METHODS: From 31 July 2017 to 1 October 2021, patients aged ≥60 years undergoing elective non-cardiac surgery were randomly assigned to either discontinue or continue RAS inhibitors prescribed for existing medical conditions in six UK centres. Renin-angiotensin system inhibitors were withheld for different durations (2-3 days) before surgery, according to their pharmacokinetic profile. The primary outcome, masked to investigators, clinicians, and patients, was myocardial injury [plasma high-sensitivity troponin-T (hs-TnT) ≥ 15 ng/L within 48 h after surgery, or ≥5 ng/L increase when pre-operative hs-TnT ≥15 ng/L]. Pre-specified adverse haemodynamic events occurring within 48 h of surgery included acute hypertension (>180 mmHg) and hypotension requiring vasoactive therapy. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty-two participants were randomized to continue (n = 132) or stop (n = 130) RAS inhibitors. Myocardial injury occurred in 58 (48.3%) patients randomized to discontinue, compared with 50 (41.3%) patients who continued, RAS inhibitors [odds ratio (for continuing): 0.77; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45-1.31]. Hypertensive adverse events were more frequent when RAS inhibitors were stopped [16 (12.4%)], compared with 7 (5.3%) who continued RAS inhibitors [odds ratio (for continuing): 0.4; 95% CI 0.16-1.00]. Hypotension rates were similar when RAS inhibitors were stopped [12 (9.3%)] or continued [11 (8.4%)]. CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuing RAS inhibitors before non-cardiac surgery did not reduce myocardial injury, and could increase the risk of clinically significant acute hypertension. These findings require confirmation in future studies.

Association between energy surplus and intensive care unit length of stay in critically ill patients: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients experiencing persistent critical illness have poor short-term and long-term outcomes and consume disproportionate amounts of health care resources. Nutrition optimization may improve outcomes, though few data exist on resting energy expenditure and nutrition requirements. We hypothesized that increased energy surplus per day is associated with increased intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LoS) in critically ill patients. METHODS: Patients from a single ICU at Royal London Hospital were included in this retrospective cohort study. EXPOSURE: energy surplus measured by serial indirect calorimetry (IC) and nutrition intake. INCLUSION CRITERIA: mechanical ventilation of ≥3 days and expected to remain ventilated. PRIMARY OUTCOME: ICU LoS. RESULTS: Across 30 patients (median LoS 21 days), increased ICU LoS was associated with actual daily energy intake surplus to resting energy expenditure (REE) (R2 0.16; P < 0.005). Median REE was less than predicted energy requirements: 24 kcal per day per kilogram of ideal body weight (IBW) (interquartile range [IQR], 20-28) vs 28 kcal/day/kg IBW (IQR, 26-29) (P < 0.001). Patients with COVID-19 had a median energy surplus (actual intake- REE) + 344 kcal/day (IQR 35-517) vs -57 kcal/day (IQR -324 to 211) in other patients (P = 0.011); however, they had a median LoS of 44 days (IQR 26-58) vs 10 days (IQR 7-24), respectively (P < 0.001). Patients with obesity had a median energy deficit of -32 kcal/day (IQR -384 to 335) vs +234 kcal/day (IQR -79 to 499) for nonobese patients (P = 0.021). CONCLUSION: Overfeeding represents an easily modifiable factor to improve outcomes in patients experiencing persistent critical illness, for which IC may be useful.

Prediction, prognosis, and professionalism in perioperative medicine.

Guidelines provide a framework to take better care of our patients. They are published by different professional groups and are based on all the research done for us by hardworking colleagues. Compiling a guideline is an enormous amount of work and is generally done with the utmost care. However, recommendations often require a subjective interpretation of published research, where personal and academic interests can influence the outcome. We discuss two recently published guidelines on perioperative cardiovascular assessment that led to different conclusions on some important areas of patient care.

Supporting effective shared decision-making in surgical context: Why framing of choices matters for high-risk patients and clinicians.

AIM: In the context of high-risk surgery, shared decision-making (SDM) is important. However, the effectiveness of SDM can be hindered by misalignment between patients and clinicians in their expectations of postoperative outcomes. This study investigated the extent and the effects of this misalignment, as well as its amenability to interventions that encourage perspective-taking. METHOD: Lay participants with a Charlson Comorbidity Index of ≥4 (representing patients) and surgeons and anaesthetists (representing doctors) were recruited. During an online experiment, subjects in both groups forecast their expectations regarding short-term (0, 1 and 3 months after treatment) and long-term (6, 9 and 12 months after treatment) outcomes of different treatment options for one of three hypothetical clinical scenarios - ischaemic heart disease, colorectal cancer or osteoarthritis of the hip - and then chose between surgical or non-surgical treatment. Subjects in both groups were asked to consider the scenarios from their own perspective (Estimation task), and then to adopt the perspective of subjects in the other study group (Perspective task). The decisions of all participants (surgery vs. non-surgical alternative) were analysed using binomial generalized linear mixed models. RESULTS: In total, 55 lay participants and 54 doctors completed the online experiment. Systematic misalignment in expectations between high-risk patients and doctors was observed, with patients expecting better surgical outcomes than clinicians. Patients forecast a significantly higher likelihood of engaging in normal activities in the long term (ß = -1.09, standard error [SE] = 0.20, t = -5.38, p < 0.001), a lower likelihood of experiencing complications in the long term (ß = 0.92, SE = 0.21, t = 4.45, p < 0.001) and a lower likelihood of experiencing depression in both the short term and the long term (ß = 1.01, SE = 0.19, t = 5.38, p < 0.001), than did doctors. Compared with doctors, patients forecast higher estimates of experiencing complications in the short term when a non-surgical alternative was selected (ß = -0.91, SE = 0.26, t = -3.50, p = 0.003). Despite this misalignment, in both groups surgical treatment was strongly preferred (estimation task: 88.7% of doctors and 80% of patients; perspective task: 82.2% of doctors and 90.1% of patients). CONCLUSION: When high-risk surgery is discussed, a non-surgical option may be viewed as 'doing nothing', hence reducing the sense of agency and control. This biases the decision-making process, regardless of the expectations that doctors and patients might have about the outcomes of surgery. Therefore, to improve SDM and to increase the agency and control of patients regarding decisions about their care, we advocate framing the non-surgical treatment options in a way that emphasizes action, agency and change.

A Transcriptomic Approach to Understand Patient Susceptibility to Pneumonia After Abdominal Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To describe immune pathways and gene networks altered following major abdominal surgery and to identify transcriptomic patterns associated with postoperative pneumonia. BACKGROUND: Nosocomial infections are a major healthcare challenge, developing in over 20% of patients aged 45 or over undergoing major abdominal surgery, with postoperative pneumonia associated with an almost 5-fold increase in 30-day mortality. METHODS: From a prospective consecutive cohort (n=150) undergoing major abdominal surgery, whole-blood RNA was collected preoperatively and at 3 time-points postoperatively (2-6, 24, and 48 h). Twelve patients diagnosed with postoperative pneumonia and 27 matched patients remaining infection-free were identified for analysis with RNA-sequencing. RESULTS: Compared to preoperative sampling, 3639 genes were upregulated and 5043 downregulated at 2 to 6 hours. Pathway analysis demonstrated innate-immune activation with neutrophil degranulation and Toll-like-receptor signaling upregulation alongside adaptive-immune suppression. Cell-type deconvolution of preoperative RNA-sequencing revealed elevated S100A8/9-high neutrophils alongside reduced naïve CD4 T-cells in those later developing pneumonia. Preoperatively, a gene-signature characteristic of neutrophil degranulation was associated with postoperative pneumonia acquisition ( P =0.00092). A previously reported Sepsis Response Signature (SRSq) score, reflecting neutrophil dysfunction and a more dysregulated host response, at 48 hours postoperatively, differed between patients subsequently developing pneumonia and those remaining infection-free ( P =0.045). Analysis of the novel neutrophil gene-signature and SRSq scores in independent major abdominal surgery and polytrauma cohorts indicated good predictive performance in identifying patients suffering later infection. CONCLUSIONS: Major abdominal surgery acutely upregulates innate-immune pathways while simultaneously suppressing adaptive-immune pathways. This is more prominent in patients developing postoperative pneumonia. Preoperative transcriptomic signatures characteristic of neutrophil degranulation and postoperative SRSq scores may be useful predictors of subsequent pneumonia risk.

One-year Outcomes after Discharge from Noncardiac Surgery and Association between Predischarge Complications and Death after Discharge: Analysis of the VISION Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: In previous analyses, myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery, major bleeding, and sepsis were independently associated with most deaths in the 30 days after noncardiac surgery, but most of these deaths occurred during the index hospitalization for surgery. The authors set out to describe outcomes after discharge from hospital up to 1 yr after inpatient noncardiac surgery and associations between predischarge complications and postdischarge death up to 1 yr after surgery. METHODS: This study was an analysis of patients discharged after inpatient noncardiac surgery in a large international prospective cohort study across 28 centers from 2007 to 2013 of patients aged 45 yr or older followed to 1 yr after surgery. The study estimated (1) the cumulative postdischarge incidence of death and other outcomes up to a year after surgery and (2) the adjusted time-varying associations between postdischarge death and predischarge complications including myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery, major bleeding, sepsis, infection without sepsis, stroke, congestive heart failure, clinically important atrial fibrillation or flutter, amputation, venous thromboembolism, and acute kidney injury managed with dialysis. RESULTS: Among 38,898 patients discharged after surgery, the cumulative 1-yr incidence was 5.8% (95% CI, 5.5 to 6.0%) for all-cause death and 24.7% (95% CI, 24.2 to 25.1%) for all-cause hospital readmission. Predischarge complications were associated with 33.7% (95% CI, 27.2 to 40.2%) of deaths up to 30 days after discharge and 15.0% (95% CI, 12.0 to 17.9%) up to 1 yr. Most of the association with death was due to myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (15.6% [95% CI, 9.3 to 21.9%] of deaths within 30 days, 6.4% [95% CI, 4.1 to 8.7%] within 1 yr), major bleeding (15.0% [95% CI, 8.3 to 21.7%] within 30 days, 4.7% [95% CI, 2.2 to 7.2%] within 1 yr), and sepsis (5.4% [95% CI, 2.2 to 8.6%] within 30 days, 2.1% [95% CI, 1.0 to 3.1%] within 1 yr). CONCLUSIONS: One in 18 patients 45 yr old or older discharged after inpatient noncardiac surgery died within 1 yr, and one quarter were readmitted to the hospital. The risk of death associated with predischarge perioperative complications persists for weeks to months after discharge.

A pilot study of alternative substrates in the critically Ill subject using a ketogenic feed.

Bioenergetic failure caused by impaired utilisation of glucose and fatty acids contributes to organ dysfunction across multiple tissues in critical illness. Ketone bodies may form an alternative substrate source, but the feasibility and safety of inducing a ketogenic state in physiologically unstable patients is not known. Twenty-nine mechanically ventilated adults with multi-organ failure managed on intensive care units were randomised (Ketogenic n = 14, Control n = 15) into a two-centre pilot open-label trial of ketogenic versus standard enteral feeding. The primary endpoints were assessment of feasibility and safety, recruitment and retention rates and achievement of ketosis and glucose control. Ketogenic feeding was feasible, safe, well tolerated and resulted in ketosis in all patients in the intervention group, with a refusal rate of 4.1% and 82.8% retention. Patients who received ketogenic feeding had fewer hypoglycaemic events (0.0% vs. 1.6%), required less exogenous international units of insulin (0 (Interquartile range 0-16) vs.78 (Interquartile range 0-412) but had slightly more daily episodes of diarrhoea (53.5% vs. 42.9%) over the trial period. Ketogenic feeding was feasible and may be an intervention for addressing bioenergetic failure in critically ill patients. Clinical Trials.gov registration: NCT04101071.

Long-term healthcare use after postoperative complications: an analysis of linked primary and secondary care routine data.

Background: Postoperative complications are associated with reduced long-term survival. We characterise healthcare use changes after sentinel postoperative complications. Methods: We linked primary and secondary care records of patients undergoing elective surgery at four East London hospitals (2012-7) with at least 90 days follow-up. Complication codes (wound infection, urinary tract infection, pneumonia, new stroke, and new myocardial infarction) recorded within 90 days of surgery were identified from primary or secondary care. Outcomes were change in healthcare contact days in the 2 yr before and after surgery, and 2 yr mortality. We report rate ratios (RaR) with 95% confidence intervals and adjusted for baseline healthcare use and confounders using negative binomial regression. Results: We included 49 913 patients (median age 49 yr [inter-quartile range {IQR}: 34-64]), 27 958 (56.0%) were female. Amongst 3883 (7.8%) patients with complications (median age 58 [IQR: 43-72]), there were 18.4 days per year in contact with healthcare before surgery and 25.3 days after surgery (RaR: 1.38 [1.37-1.39]). Patients without complications (median age 48 [IQR: 33-63]) had 12.3 days per year in contact with healthcare before surgery and 14.0 days after surgery (RaR: 1.14 [1.14-1.15]). The adjusted incidence rate ratio of days in contact with healthcare associated with complications was 1.67 (1.49-1.87). More patients (391; 10.1%) with complications died within 2 yr than those without (1428; 3.1%). Conclusions: Patients with postoperative complications are older with greater healthcare use before surgery. However, their absolute and relative increases in healthcare use after surgery are greater than patients without complications.

Propensity score methods in observational research: brief review and guide for authors.

Causal inference in observational research requires a careful approach to adjustment for confounding. One such approach is the use of propensity score analyses. In this editorial, we focus on the role of propensity score-based methods in estimating causal effects from non-randomised observational data. We highlight the details, assumptions, and limitations of these methods and provide authors with guidelines for the conduct and reporting of propensity score analyses.