Improving the biological realism of predator-prey size relationships in food web models alters ecosystem dynamics.

Body-size relationships between predators and prey exhibit remarkable diversity. However, the assumption that predators typically consume proportionally smaller prey often underlies size-dependent predation in ecosystem models. In reality, some animals can consume larger prey or exhibit limited changes in prey size as they grow larger themselves. These distinct predator-prey size relationships challenge the conventional assumptions of traditional size-based models. Cephalopods, with their diverse feeding behaviours and life histories, offer an excellent case study to investigate the impact of greater biological realism in predator-prey size relationships on energy flow within a size-structured ecosystem model. By categorizing cephalopods into high and low-activity groups, in line with empirically derived, distinct predator-prey size relationships, we found that incorporating greater biological realism in size-based feeding reduced ecosystem biomass and production, while simultaneously increasing biomass stability and turnover. Our results have broad implications for ecosystem modelling, since distinct predator-prey size relationships extend beyond cephalopods, encompassing a wide array of major taxonomic groups from filter-feeding fishes to baleen whales. Incorporating a diversity of size-based feeding in food web models can enhance their ecological and predictive accuracy when studying ecosystem dynamics.

Climate, currents and species traits contribute to early stages of marine species redistribution.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a rapid redistribution of life on Earth, particularly in the ocean, with profound implications for humans. Yet warming-driven range shifts are known to be influenced by a variety of factors whose combined effects are still little understood. Here, we use scientist-verified out-of-range observations from a national citizen-science initiative to assess the combined effect of long-term warming, climate extremes (i.e., heatwaves and cold spells), ocean currents, and species traits on early stages of marine range extensions in two warming 'hotspot' regions of southern Australia. We find effects of warming to be contingent upon complex interactions with the strength of ocean currents and their mutual directional agreement, as well as species traits. Our study represents the most comprehensive account to date of factors driving early stages of marine species redistributions, providing important evidence for the assessment of the vulnerability of marine species distributions to climate change.

Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System.

The Northern Humboldt Current System sustains one of the most productive fisheries in the world. However, climate change is anticipated to negatively affect fish production in this region over the next few decades, and detailed analyses for many fishery resources are unavailable. We implemented a trait-based Climate Vulnerability Assessment based on expert elicitation to estimate the relative vulnerability of 28 fishery resources (benthic, demersal, and pelagic) to the impacts of climate change by 2055; ten exposure factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, pH, chlorophyll) and 13 sensitivity attributes (biological and population-level traits) were used. Nearly 36% of the species assessed had "high" or "very high" vulnerability. Benthic species were ranked the most vulnerable (gastropod and bivalve species). The pelagic group was the second most vulnerable; the Pacific chub mackerel and the yellowfin tuna were amongst the most vulnerable pelagic species. The demersal group had the relatively lowest vulnerability. This study allowed identification of vulnerable fishery resources, research and monitoring priorities, and identification of the key exposure factors and sensitivity attributes which are driving that vulnerability. Our findings can help fishery managers incorporate climate change into harvest level and allocation decisions, and assist stakeholders plan for and adapt to a changing future.

Metabolic plasticity improves lobster's resilience to ocean warming but not to climate-driven novel species interactions.

Marine species not only suffer from direct effects of warming oceans but also indirectly via the emergence of novel species interactions. While metabolic adjustments can be crucial to improve resilience to warming, it is largely unknown if this improves performance relative to novel competitors. We aimed to identify if spiny lobsters-inhabiting a global warming and species re-distribution hotspot-align their metabolic performance to improve resilience to both warming and novel species interactions. We measured metabolic and escape capacity of two Australian spiny lobsters, resident Jasus edwardsii and the range-shifting Sagmariasus verreauxi, acclimated to current average-(14.0 °C), current summer-(17.5 °C) and projected future summer-(21.5 °C) habitat temperatures. We found that both species decreased their standard metabolic rate with increased acclimation temperature, while sustaining their scope for aerobic metabolism. However, the resident lobster showed reduced anaerobic escape performance at warmer temperatures and failed to match the metabolic capacity of the range-shifting lobster. We conclude that although resident spiny lobsters optimise metabolism in response to seasonal and future temperature changes, they may be unable to physiologically outperform their range-shifting competitors. This highlights the critical importance of exploring direct as well as indirect effects of temperature changes to understand climate change impacts.

Safeguarding marine life: conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems.

Marine ecosystems and their associated biodiversity sustain life on Earth and hold intrinsic value. Critical marine ecosystem services include maintenance of global oxygen and carbon cycles, production of food and energy, and sustenance of human wellbeing. However marine ecosystems are swiftly being degraded due to the unsustainable use of marine environments and a rapidly changing climate. The fundamental challenge for the future is therefore to safeguard marine ecosystem biodiversity, function, and adaptive capacity whilst continuing to provide vital resources for the global population. Here, we use foresighting/hindcasting to consider two plausible futures towards 2030: a business-as-usual trajectory (i.e. continuation of current trends), and a more sustainable but technically achievable future in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We identify key drivers that differentiate these alternative futures and use these to develop an action pathway towards the desirable, more sustainable future. Key to achieving the more sustainable future will be establishing integrative (i.e. across jurisdictions and sectors), adaptive management that supports equitable and sustainable stewardship of marine environments. Conserving marine ecosystems will require recalibrating our social, financial, and industrial relationships with the marine environment. While a sustainable future requires long-term planning and commitment beyond 2030, immediate action is needed to avoid tipping points and avert trajectories of ecosystem decline. By acting now to optimise management and protection of marine ecosystems, building upon existing technologies, and conserving the remaining biodiversity, we can create the best opportunity for a sustainable future in 2030 and beyond.

Influence of offshore oil and gas structures on seascape ecological connectivity.

Offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, wells and related fixed structures supporting the oil and gas (O&G) industry are prevalent in oceans across the globe, with many approaching the end of their operational life and requiring decommissioning. Although structures can possess high ecological diversity and productivity, information on how they interact with broader ecological processes remains unclear. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the role of O&G infrastructure in maintaining, altering or enhancing ecological connectivity with natural marine habitats. There is a paucity of studies on the subject with only 33 papers specifically targeting connectivity and O&G structures, although other studies provide important related information. Evidence for O&G structures facilitating vertical and horizontal seascape connectivity exists for larvae and mobile adult invertebrates, fish and megafauna; including threatened and commercially important species. The degree to which these structures represent a beneficial or detrimental net impact remains unclear, is complex and ultimately needs more research to determine the extent to which natural connectivity networks are conserved, enhanced or disrupted. We discuss the potential impacts of different decommissioning approaches on seascape connectivity and identify, through expert elicitation, critical knowledge gaps that, if addressed, may further inform decision making for the life cycle of O&G infrastructure, with relevance for other industries (e.g. renewables). The most highly ranked critical knowledge gap was a need to understand how O&G structures modify and influence the movement patterns of mobile species and dispersal stages of sessile marine species. Understanding how different decommissioning options affect species survival and movement was also highly ranked, as was understanding the extent to which O&G structures contribute to extending species distributions by providing rest stops, foraging habitat, and stepping stones. These questions could be addressed with further dedicated studies of animal movement in relation to structures using telemetry, molecular techniques and movement models. Our review and these priority questions provide a roadmap for advancing research needed to support evidence-based decision making for decommissioning O&G infrastructure.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution.

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

Developing achievable alternate futures for key challenges during the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development.

The oceans face a range of complex challenges for which the impacts on society are highly uncertain but mostly negative. Tackling these challenges is testing society's capacity to mobilise transformative action, engendering a sense of powerlessness. Envisaging positive but realistic visions of the future, and considering how current knowledge, resources, and technology could be used to achieve these futures, may lead to greater action to achieve sustainable transformations. Future Seas (www.FutureSeas2030.org) brought together researchers across career stages, Indigenous Peoples and environmental managers to develop scenarios for 12 challenges facing the oceans, leveraging interdisciplinary knowledge to improve society's capacity to purposefully shape the direction of marine social-ecological systems over the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030). We describe and reflect on Future Seas, providing guidance for co-developing scenarios in interdisciplinary teams tasked with exploring ocean futures. We detail the narrative development for two futures: our current trajectory based on published evidence, and a more sustainable future, consistent with the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, which is technically achievable using existing and emerging knowledge. Presentation of Business-as-usual and More Sustainable futures-together-allows communication of both trajectories, whilst also highlighting achievable, sustainable versions of the future. The advantages of the interdisciplinary approach taken include: (1) integrating different perspectives on solutions, (2) capacity to explore interactions between Life Under Water (Goal 14) and other SDGs, and (3) cross-disciplinary learning. This approach allowed participants to conceptualise shared visions of the future and co-design transformative pathways to achieving those futures. Supplementary Information SI: The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s11160-020-09629-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Connecting to the oceans: supporting ocean literacy and public engagement.

Improved public understanding of the ocean and the importance of sustainable ocean use, or ocean literacy, is essential for achieving global commitments to sustainable development by 2030 and beyond. However, growing human populations (particularly in mega-cities), urbanisation and socio-economic disparity threaten opportunities for people to engage and connect directly with ocean environments. Thus, a major challenge in engaging the whole of society in achieving ocean sustainability by 2030 is to develop strategies to improve societal connections to the ocean. The concept of ocean literacy reflects public understanding of the ocean, but is also an indication of connections to, and attitudes and behaviours towards, the ocean. Improving and progressing global ocean literacy has potential to catalyse the behaviour changes necessary for achieving a sustainable future. As part of the Future Seas project (https://futureseas2030.org/), this paper aims to synthesise knowledge and perspectives on ocean literacy from a range of disciplines, including but not exclusive to marine biology, socio-ecology, philosophy, technology, psychology, oceanography and human health. Using examples from the literature, we outline the potential for positive change towards a sustainable future based on knowledge that already exists. We focus on four drivers that can influence and improve ocean literacy and societal connections to the ocean: (1) education, (2) cultural connections, (3) technological developments, and (4) knowledge exchange and science-policy interconnections. We explore how each driver plays a role in improving perceptions of the ocean to engender more widespread societal support for effective ocean management and conservation. In doing so, we develop an ocean literacy toolkit, a practical resource for enhancing ocean connections across a broad range of contexts worldwide.

Warming world, changing ocean: mitigation and adaptation to support resilient marine systems.

Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required by 2030 to keep warming to less than 1.5 ºC but, because substantial warming is already locked in, extensive adaptation action is also needed. Here, as part of the Future Seas project, we use a "foresighting/hindcasting" technique to describe two scenarios for 2030 in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation for ocean systems. The "business-as-usual" future is expected if current trends continue, while an alternative future could be realised if society were to effectively use available data and knowledge to push as far as possible towards achieving the UN SDGs. We identify three drivers that differentiate between these alternative futures: (i) appetite for climate action, (ii) handling extreme events, and (iii) climate interventions. Actions that could navigate towards the optimistic, sustainable and technically achievable future include:(i)proactive creation and enhancement of economic incentives for mitigation and adaptation;(ii)supporting the proliferation of local initiatives to spur a global transformation;(iii)enhancing proactive coastal adaptation management;(iv)investing in research to support adaptation to emerging risks;(v)deploying marine-based renewable energy;(vi)deploying marine-based negative emissions technologies;(vii)developing and assessing solar radiation management approaches; and(viii)deploying appropriate solar radiation management approaches to help safeguard critical ecosystems. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09678-4.

Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental-scale review of climate-driven species redistribution in marine systems.

Climate-driven changes in the distribution of species are a pervasive and accelerating impact of climate change, and despite increasing research effort in this rapidly emerging field, much remains unknown or poorly understood. We lack a holistic understanding of patterns and processes at local, regional and global scales, with detailed explorations of range shifts in the southern hemisphere particularly under-represented. Australian waters encompass the world's third largest marine jurisdiction, extending from tropical to sub-Antarctic climate zones, and have waters warming at rates twice the global average in the north and two to four times in the south. Here, we report the results of a multi-taxon continent-wide review describing observed and predicted species redistribution around the Australian coastline, and highlight critical gaps in knowledge impeding our understanding of, and response to, these considerable changes. Since range shifts were first reported in the region in 2003, 198 species from nine Phyla have been documented shifting their distribution, 87.3% of which are shifting poleward. However, there is little standardization of methods or metrics reported in observed or predicted shifts, and both are hindered by a lack of baseline data. Our results demonstrate the importance of historical data sets and underwater visual surveys, and also highlight that approximately one-fifth of studies incorporated citizen science. These findings emphasize the important role the public has had, and can continue to play, in understanding the impact of climate change. Most documented shifts are of coastal fish species in sub-tropical and temperate systems, while tropical systems in general were poorly explored. Moreover, most distributional changes are only described at the poleward boundary, with few studies considering changes at the warmer, equatorward range limit. Through identifying knowledge gaps and research limitations, this review highlights future opportunities for strategic research effort to improve the representation of Australian marine species and systems in climate-impact research.

Mismatch of thermal optima between performance measures, life stages and species of spiny lobster.

In an ocean warming hotspot off south-east Australia, many species have expanded their ranges polewards, including the eastern rock lobster, Sagmariasus verreauxi. This species is likely extending its range via larval advection into Tasmanian coastal waters, which are occupied by the more commercially important southern rock lobster, Jasus edwardsii. Here, thermal tolerances of these lobster species at two life stages were investigated to assess how they may respond to warming ocean temperatures. We found that the pattern, optimum and magnitude of thermal responses differed between performance measures, life stages and species. Sagmariasus verreauxi had a warmer optimal temperature for aerobic scope and escape speed than J. edwardsii. However, J. edwardsii had a higher magnitude of escape speed, indicating higher capacity for escape performance. There were also differences between life stages within species, with the larval stage having higher variation in optimal temperatures between measures than juveniles. This inconsistency in performance optima and magnitude indicates that single performance measures at single life stages are unlikely to accurately predict whole animal performance in terms of life-time survival and fitness. However, combined results of this study suggest that with continued ocean warming, S. verreauxi is likely to continue to extend its distribution polewards and increase in abundance in Tasmania.

Citizen science and marine conservation: a global review.

Climate change, overfishing, marine pollution and other anthropogenic drivers threaten our global oceans. More effective efforts are urgently required to improve the capacity of marine conservation action worldwide, as highlighted by the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-2030. Marine citizen science presents a promising avenue to enhance engagement in marine conservation around the globe. Building on an expanding field of citizen science research and practice, we present a global overview of the current extent and potential of marine citizen science and its contribution to marine conservation. Employing an online global survey, we explore the geographical distribution, type and format of 74 marine citizen science projects. By assessing how the projects adhere to the Ten Principles of Citizen Science (as defined by the European Citizen Science Association), we investigate project development, identify challenges and outline future opportunities to contribute to marine science and conservation. Synthesizing the survey results and drawing on evidence from case studies of diverse projects, we assess whether and how citizen science can lead to new scientific knowledge and enhanced environmental stewardship. Overall, we explore how marine citizen science can inform current understanding of marine biodiversity and support the development and implementation of marine conservation initiatives worldwide. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Functional traits explain trophic allometries of cephalopods.

Individual body size strongly influences the trophic role of marine organisms and the structure and function of marine ecosystems. Quantifying trophic position-individual body size relationships (trophic allometries) underpins the development of size-structured ecosystem models to predict abundance and the transfer of energy through ecosystems. Trophic allometries are well studied for fishes but remain relatively unexplored for cephalopods. Cephalopods are important components of coastal, oceanic and deep-sea ecosystems, and they play a key role in the transfer of biomass from low trophic positions to higher predators. It is therefore important to resolve cephalopod trophic allometries to accurately represent them within size-structured ecosystem models. We assessed the trophic positions of cephalopods in an oceanic pelagic (0-500 m) community (sampled by trawling in a cold-core eddy in the western Tasman Sea), comprising 22 species from 12 families, using bulk tissue stable isotope analysis and amino acid compound-specific stable isotope analysis. We assessed whether ontogenetic trophic position shifts were evident at the species-level and tested for the best predictor of community-level trophic allometry among body size, taxonomy and functional grouping (informed by fin and mantle morphology). Individuals in this cephalopod community spanned two trophic positions and fell into three functional groups on an activity level gradient: low, medium and high. The relationship between trophic position and ontogeny varied among species, with the most marked differences evident between species from different functional groups. Activity-level-based functional group and individual body size are best explained by cephalopod trophic positions (marginal R2  = 0.43). Our results suggest that the morphological traits used to infer activity level, such as fin-to-mantle length ratio, fin musculature and mantle musculature are strong predictors of cephalopod trophic allometries. Contrary to established theory, not all cephalopods are voracious predators. Low activity level cephalopods have a distinct feeding mode, with low trophic positions and little-to-no ontogenetic increases. Given the important role of cephalopods in marine ecosystems, distinct feeding modes could have important consequences for energy pathways and ecosystem structure and function. These findings will facilitate trait-based and other model estimates of cephalopod abundance in the changing global ocean.

Temperature alters the physiological response of spiny lobsters under predation risk.

Predation risk can strongly shape prey ecological traits, with specific anti-predator responses displayed to reduce encounters with predators. Key environmental drivers, such as temperature, can profoundly modulate prey energetic costs in ectotherms, although we currently lack knowledge of how both temperature and predation risk can challenge prey physiology and ecology. Such uncertainties in predator-prey interactions are particularly relevant for marine regions experiencing rapid environmental changes due to climate change. Using the octopus (Octopus maorum)-spiny lobster (Jasus edwardsii) interaction as a predator-prey model, we examined different metabolic traits of sub adult spiny lobsters under predation risk in combination with two thermal scenarios: 'current' (20°C) and 'warming' (23°C), based on projections of sea-surface temperature under climate change. We examined lobster standard metabolic rates to define the energetic requirements at specific temperatures. Routine metabolic rates (RMRs) within a respirometer were used as a proxy of lobster activity during night and day time, and active metabolic rates, aerobic scope and excess post-exercise oxygen consumption were used to assess the energetic costs associated with escape responses (i.e. tail-flipping) in both thermal scenarios. Lobster standard metabolic rate increased at 23°C, suggesting an elevated energetic requirement (39%) compared to 20°C. Unthreatened lobsters displayed a strong circadian pattern in RMR with higher rates during the night compared with the day, which were strongly magnified at 23°C. Once exposed to predation risk, lobsters at 20°C quickly reduced their RMR by ~29%, suggesting an immobility or 'freezing' response to avoid predators. Conversely, lobsters acclimated to 23°C did not display such an anti-predator response. These findings suggest that warmer temperatures may induce a change to the typical immobility predation risk response of lobsters. It is hypothesized that heightened energetic maintenance requirements at higher temperatures may act to override the normal predator-risk responses under climate-change scenarios.

Physiological mechanisms linking cold acclimation and the poleward distribution limit of a range-extending marine fish.

Extensions of species' geographical distributions, or range extensions, are among the primary ecological responses to climate change in the oceans. Considerable variation across the rates at which species' ranges change with temperature hinders our ability to forecast range extensions based on climate data alone. To better manage the consequences of ongoing and future range extensions for global marine biodiversity, more information is needed on the biological mechanisms that link temperatures to range limits. This is especially important at understudied, low relative temperatures relevant to poleward range extensions, which appear to outpace warm range edge contractions four times over. Here, we capitalized on the ongoing range extension of a teleost predator, the Australasian snapper Chrysophrys auratus, to examine multiple measures of ecologically relevant physiological performance at the population's poleward range extension front. Swim tunnel respirometry was used to determine how mid-range and poleward range edge winter acclimation temperatures affect metabolic rate, aerobic scope, swimming performance and efficiency and recovery from exercise. Relative to 'optimal' mid-range temperature acclimation, subsequent range edge minimum temperature acclimation resulted in absolute aerobic scope decreasing while factorial aerobic scope increased; efficiency of swimming increased while maximum sustainable swimming speed decreased; and recovery from exercise required a longer duration despite lower oxygen payback. Cold-acclimated swimming faster than 0.9 body lengths sec-1 required a greater proportion of aerobic scope despite decreased cost of transport. Reduced aerobic scope did not account for declines in recovery and lower maximum sustainable swimming speed. These results suggest that while performances decline at range edge minimum temperatures, cold-acclimated snapper are optimized for energy savings and range edge limitation may arise from suboptimal temperature exposure throughout the year rather than acute minimum temperature exposure. We propose incorporating performance data with in situ behaviour and environmental data in bioenergetic models to better understand how thermal tolerance determines range limits.

Introduction: Autochthonous human adaptation to biodiversity change in the Anthropocene.

Rapid biodiversity change that is already occurring across the globe is accelerating, with major and often negative consequences for human well-being. Biodiversity change is partly driven by climate change, but it has many other interacting drivers that are also driving human adaptation, including invasive species, land-use change, pollution and overexploitation. Humans are adapting to changes in well-being that are related with these biodiversity drivers and other forces and pressures. Adaptation, in turn, has feedbacks both for biodiversity change and human well-being; however, to date, these processes have received little science or policy attention. This Special Issue introduces human adaptation to biodiversity change as a science-policy issue. Research on human adaptation to biodiversity change requires new methods and tools as well as conceptual evolution, as social-ecological systems and environmental change adaptation approaches must be reconsidered when they are applied to different processes and contexts-where biodiversity change drivers are highly significant, where people are responding principally to changes in species, species communities and related ecosystem processes, and where adaptation entails changes in the management of biodiversity and related resource use regimes. The research was carried out in different marine and terrestrial environments across the globe. All of the studies consider adaptation among highly biodiversity-reliant populations, including Indigenous Peoples in the Americas and Europe, farmers in Asia and marine resource users in Europe and the Pacific. The concept of autochthonous adaptation is introduced to specifically address adaptation to environmental change in local systems, which also considers that local adaptation is conditioned by multi-scalar influences and occurs in synergy or conflict with adaptations of other non-local agents and actors who enable or constrain autochthonous adaptation options.

Autonomous adaptation to climate-driven change in marine biodiversity in a global marine hotspot.

While governments and natural resource managers grapple with how to respond to climatic changes, many marine-dependent individuals, organisations and user-groups in fast-changing regions of the world are already adjusting their behaviour to accommodate these. However, we have little information on the nature of these autonomous adaptations that are being initiated by resource user-groups. The east coast of Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world's fastest warming marine regions with extensive climate-driven changes in biodiversity already observed. We present and compare examples of autonomous adaptations from marine users of the region to provide insights into factors that may have constrained or facilitated the available range of autonomous adaptation options and discuss potential interactions with governmental planned adaptations. We aim to support effective adaptation by identifying the suite of changes that marine users are making largely without government or management intervention, i.e. autonomous adaptations, to better understand these and their potential interactions with formal adaptation strategies.