Hepatitis C virus dynamics and cellular gene expression in uPA-SCID chimeric mice with humanized livers during intravenous silibinin monotherapy.

Legalon SIL (SIL) is a chemically hydrophilized version of silibinin, an extract of milk thistle (Silybum marianum) seeds that has exhibited hepatoprotective and antiviral effectiveness against hepatitis C virus (HCV) in patients leading to viral clearance in combination with ribavirin. To elucidate the incompletely understood mode of action of SIL against HCV, mathematical modelling of HCV kinetics and human hepatocyte gene expression studies were performed in uPA-SCID-chimeric mice with humanized livers. Chronically HCV-infected mice (n = 15) were treated for 14 days with daily intravenous SIL at 469, 265 or 61.5 mg/kg. Serum HCV and human albumin (hAlb) were measured frequently, and liver HCV RNA was analysed at days 3 and 14. Microarray analysis of human hepatocyte gene expression was performed at days 0, 3 and 14 of treatment. While hAlb remained constant, a biphasic viral decline in serum was observed consisting of a rapid 1st phase followed by a second slower phase (or plateau with the two lower SIL dosings). SIL effectiveness in blocking viral production was similar among dosing groups (median ε = 77%). However, the rate of HCV-infected hepatocyte decline, δ, was dose-dependent. Intracellular HCV RNA levels correlated (r = 0.66, P = 0.01) with serum HCV RNA. Pathway analysis revealed increased anti-inflammatory and antiproliferative gene expression in human hepatocytes in SIL-treated mice. The results suggest that SIL could lead to a continuous second-phase viral decline, that is potentially viral clearance, in the absence of adaptive immune response along with increased anti-inflammatory and antiproliferative gene expression in human hepatocytes.

Viral dynamic modelling of Hepatitis C and resistance-associated variants in haemophiliacs.

AIM: Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is an important source of morbidity and mortality among haemophiliacs. Limited data are available regarding treatment intervention using direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and theoretical concerns regarding accumulation of drug-associated resistance variants (RAVs) remain. We conducted a pilot study of treatment with telaprevir/pegylated interferon-alfa/ribavirin to evaluate treatment response and the role of lead-in DAA therapy on mutational selection of resistance variants. METHODS: Ultra-deep sequence analysis was performed at baseline, 48 hours and 168 hours after treatment initiation. RESULTS: No dominant RAVs were identified at baseline, but low-level RAVs were noted at baseline in all subjects. Viral dynamic models were used to assess treatment responses. The efficacy parameter (Ɛ) for lead-in ranged from 0 to 0.9745 (mean = 0.514). Subsequent addition of telaprevir resulted in a mean efficacy of more than 0.999. This was comparable to subjects who started all three medications simultaneously. A total of 80% achieved SVR. While rapid shifts in the RAV population following DAA initiation were observed, treatment failure associated with A156V was observed in only one patient. Adverse event profiles were similar to that observed in non-haemophilia cohorts. There was no evidence of factor inhibitor formation. There was no evidence that lead-in provided benefit in terms of response efficacy. CONCLUSION: These data support DAA-based therapy in those with inherited bleeding disorders.

A perspective on modelling hepatitis C virus infection.

By mathematically describing early hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA decay after initiation of interferon (IFN)-based antiviral therapy, crucial parameters of the in vivo viral kinetics have been estimated, such as the rate of production and clearance of free virus, and the rate of loss of infected cells. Furthermore, by suggesting mechanisms of action for IFN and ribavirin mathematical modelling has provided a means for evaluating and optimizing treatment strategies. Here, we review recent modelling developments for understanding complex viral kinetics patterns, such as triphasic HCV RNA declines and viral rebounds observed in patients treated with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. Moreover, we discuss new modelling approaches developed to interpret the viral kinetics observed in clinical trials with direct-acting antiviral agents, which induce a rapid decline of wild-type virus but also engender a higher risk for emergence of drug-resistant variants. Lastly, as in vitro systems have allowed a better characterization of the virus lifecycle, we discuss new modelling approaches that combine the intracellular and the extracellular viral dynamics.

Modelling hepatitis C virus kinetics during treatment with pegylated interferon alpha-2b: errors in the estimation of viral kinetic parameters.

Neumann et al. [1] developed a widely used model for the analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) dynamics after the initiation of interferon therapy that assumes the effectiveness of therapy in blocking virion production, epsilon, is constant. However, with pegylated interferon alpha-2b (PEG-IFN) given weekly, there are significant changes in drug concentration between doses, leading to changes in drug effectiveness and viral rebounds. To investigate the appropriateness of the constant effectiveness (CE) model [1] for studies involving PEG-IFN, we simulated PEG-IFN treatment, using 294 sets of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) parameters that span observed ranges and fit the simulated data to the CE model. For most combinations of PK/PD parameters, the fits resulted in an infected cell loss rate, delta, that underestimates the true value used in the simulations and yielded over-estimates of the average effectiveness of PEG-IFN. In the setting of PEG-IFN therapy, the use of the CE model of HCV kinetics has to be reevaluated and the validity of its use depends on the amount of HCV RNA rebound observed between doses.

Modelling the kinetics of hepatitis C virus RNA decline over 4 weeks of treatment with pegylated interferon alpha-2b.

Viral kinetic models for hepatitis C virus (HCV) have generally assumed that the effectiveness of therapy in blocking virion production, epsilon, is constant. However, with pegylated interferon alpha-2b (PEG-IFN) given weekly, there are significant changes in drug concentration between doses that may lead to changes in drug effectiveness and viral rebounds towards the end of the dosing interval. Here we investigate the effects of using a model that assumes a constant effectiveness for studies involving PEG-IFN. We simulated PEG-IFN treatment in a population of 294 computer simulated 'patients', each characterized by a different set of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters. We then sampled the simulated treatment data over 4 weeks with a schedule similar to that used in viral kinetic studies, and fitted a viral kinetic model assuming constant drug effectiveness, the CE model, to that data. Although the CE model was able to fit to the data well in most cases, the parameter estimates obtained scattered widely both above and below the true values. Thus, this model is less useful to analyse HCV RNA data during therapy with PEG-IFN than with standard IFN given daily. With PEG-IFN accurate estimation of viral dynamic parameters necessitates concomitant measurements of serum viral load and drug concentration.

Acute hepatitis C in patients receiving hemodialysis.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is frequent in patients with end-stage renal disease treated by chronic dialysis, with a prevalence varying from 10-65% according to the geographical data. The prevalence is significantly associated with the duration of dialysis and the number of transfused blood products[1,2] and has dramatically declined with efficient blood screening.[3] We studied patients with acute HCV infection in a dialysis unit. The diagnosis was based on both anti-HCV detection and HCV-RNA detection. Other virological tools including HCV genotype determination was also used to tailor treatment to the individual patient and determine its efficacy for a one-year follow-up period. Seventeen patients (7 male and 10 female, mean age: 63.7 +/- 11.6 SD) with acute hepatitis C were enrolled to our study. All of them were followed up for a period of one year after the diagnosis was established. Phylogenetic analysis distinguished two separate HCV subtypes 1b, which were both responsible for this acute infection (see Figure 1). These types did not differ in their behavior on the clinical situation of our patients, as confirmed by the fact that in both groups of patients, there was only one patient who presented with acute illness. Six patients of our study group, three months after the acute infection, received pegylated interferon (Peg-IFNa2a) 135 mug for a six-month period. Four of them responded very well to therapy and at the first determination HCV RNA was below the cutoff point. One of our patients with very high HCV levels (HCV RNA > 50,000,000 IU/mL), despite receiving the same therapy, did not respond well and developed cirrhosis. In conclusion, it is clear from our experience that better information is needed about the current incidence, prevalence, and risk factors for HCV infection in dialysis patients. Algorithms for the diagnosis and management of hepatitis C should be developed by academic societies. Routine screening for hepatitis C also would allow for better definition of the natural history of hepatitis C in patients with end stage renal disease. [image omitted]Figure 1. NS 5B gene phylogenetic tree analysis of the acute hepatitis C epidemic.

The metabolism, pharmacokinetics and mechanisms of antiviral activity of ribavirin against hepatitis C virus.

Ribavirin, a broad spectrum antiviral agent, in conjunction with interferon forms the current standard of treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in humans. While ribavirin alone fails to induce a significant antiviral response, in combination with interferon, ribavirin dramatically improves the long-term outcome of therapy. The predominant mechanism(s) of ribavirin action against HCV, are yet to be established. In this review, we examine the current status of our understanding of the metabolism, pharmacokinetics and mechanisms of the antiviral activity of ribavirin against HCV, all of which are central to the rational identification of improved treatment protocols.

Optimizing within-host viral fitness: infected cell lifespan and virion production rate.

We explore how an infected cell's virion production rate can affect the relative fitness of a virus within a host. We perform an invasion analysis, based on an age-structured model of viral dynamics, to derive the within-host relative viral fitness. We find that for chronic infections, in the absence of trade-offs between viral life history stages, natural selection favors viral strains whose virion production rate maximizes viral burst size. We then show how various life history trade-offs such as that between virion production and immune system recognition and clearance of virally infected cells can lead to natural selection favoring production rates lower than the one that maximizes burst size. Our findings suggest that HIV replication rates should vary between cells with different life spans, as has been suggested by recent observation.

Increased turnover of T lymphocytes in HIV-1 infection and its reduction by antiretroviral therapy.

The mechanism of CD4(+) T cell depletion in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infection remains controversial. Using deuterated glucose to label the DNA of proliferating cells in vivo, we studied T cell dynamics in four normal subjects and seven HIV-1-infected patients naive to antiretroviral drugs. The results were analyzed using a newly developed mathematical model to determine fractional rates of lymphocyte proliferation and death. In CD4(+) T cells, mean proliferation and death rates were elevated by 6.3- and 2.9-fold, respectively, in infected patients compared with normal controls. In CD8(+) T cells, the mean proliferation rate was 7.7-fold higher in HIV-1 infection, but the mean death rate was not significantly increased. Five of the infected patients underwent subsequent deuterated glucose labeling studies after initiating antiretroviral therapy. The lymphocyte proliferation and death rates in both CD4(+) and CD8(+) cell populations were substantially reduced by 5-11 weeks and nearly normal by one year. Taken together, these new findings strongly indicate that CD4(+) lymphocyte depletion seen in AIDS is primarily a consequence of increased cellular destruction, not decreased cellular production.

Analysis of hepatitis B viral load decline under potent therapy: complex decay profiles observed.

We used a new real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assay that is sensitive, has a wide dynamic linear range, and is highly reproducible to quantify hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA in the serum of infected individuals undergoing potent antiviral therapy. In addition, we made frequent measurements of viral load after initiation of treatment and maintained follow-up to about 12 weeks. To analyze the data we used a new model of HBV decay, which takes into account that existing drug treatments do not completely block de novo infection and the possibility of noncytolytic loss of infected cells. On initiation of therapy, there was a mean delay of 1.6 days followed by a biphasic or muliphasic decay of plasma HBV DNA. The slope of the first phase varied considerably, with one individual having rapid decay, corresponding to a virion half-life of 1 hour, but others showing half-lives of up to 92 hours. Individuals either had a slow second-phase decline (t((1/2)) = 7.2 +/- 1.2 days) or a flat second phase. Some individuals exhibited a complex "staircase pattern" of decay, with further phases of viral DNA decline and phases with little change in viral load.

Recruitment times, proliferation, and apoptosis rates during the CD8(+) T-cell response to lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus.

The specific CD8(+) T-cell response during acute lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) infection of mice is characterized by a rapid proliferation phase, followed by a rapid death phase and long-term memory. In BALB/c mice the immunodominant and subdominant CD8(+) responses are directed against the NP118 and GP283 epitopes. These responses differ mainly in the magnitude of the epitope-specific CD8(+) T-cell expansion. Using mathematical models together with a nonlinear parameter estimation procedure, we estimate the parameters describing the rates of change during the three phases and thereby establish the differences between the responses to the two epitopes. We find that CD8(+) cell proliferation begins 1 to 2 days after infection and occurs at an average rate of 3 day(-1), reaching the maximum population size between days 5 and 6 after immunization. The 10-fold difference in expansion to the NP118 and GP283 epitopes can be accounted for in our model by a 3.5-fold difference in the antigen concentration of these epitopes at which T-cell stimulation is half-maximal. As a consequence of this 3.5-fold difference in the epitope concentration needed for T-cell stimulation, the rates of activation and proliferation of T cells specific for the two epitopes differ during the response and in combination can account for the large difference in the magnitude of the response. After the peak, during the death phase, the population declines at a rate of 0.5 day(-1), i.e., cells have an average life time of 2 days. The model accounts for a memory cell population of 5% of the peak population size by a reversal to memory of 1 to 2% of the activated cells per day during the death phase.

Effect of drug efficacy and the eclipse phase of the viral life cycle on estimates of HIV viral dynamic parameters.

Fits of mathematic models to the decline in HIV-1 RNA after antiretroviral therapies have yielded estimates for the life span of productively infected cells of 1 to 2 days. In a previous report, we described the mathematic properties of an extended model that accounts for imperfect viral suppression and the eclipse phase of the viral life cycle (the intracellular delay between initial infection and release of progeny virions). In this article, we fit this extended model to detailed data on the decline of plasma HIV-1 RNA after treatment with the protease inhibitor ritonavir. Because the therapy in this study was most likely not completely suppressive, we allowed the drug efficacy parameter to vary from 70% to 100%. Estimates for the clearance rate of free virus, c, increased with the addition of the intracellular delay (as reported previously) but were not appreciably affected by changes in the drug efficacy parameter. By contrast, the estimated death rate of virus-producing cells, delta, increased from an average of 0.49 day-1 to 0.90 day-1 (an increase of 84%) because the drug efficacy parameter was reduced from 100% to 70%. Neglecting the intracellular delay, the comparable increase in delta was only about 55%. The inferred increases in delta doubled when the model was extended to account for possible increases in target cell densities after treatment initiation. This work suggests that estimates for delta may be greater than previously reported and that the half-life of a cell in vivo that is producing virus, on average, may be 1 day.

Kinetics of acute hepatitis B virus infection in humans.

Using patient data from a unique single source outbreak of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, we have characterized the kinetics of acute HBV infection by monitoring viral turnover in the serum during the late incubation and clinical phases of the disease in humans. HBV replicates rapidly with minimally estimated doubling times ranging between 2.2 and 5.8 d (mean 3.7 +/- 1.5 d). After a peak viral load in serum of nearly 10(10) HBV DNA copies/ml is attained, clearance of HBV DNA follows a two or three phase decay pattern with an initial rapid decline characterized by mean half-life (t(1/2)) of 3.7 +/- 1.2 d, similar to the t(1/2) observed in the noncytolytic clearance of covalently closed circular DNA for other hepadnaviruses. The final phase of virion clearance occurs at a variable rate (t(1/2) of 4.8 to 284 d) and may relate to the rate of loss of infected hepatocytes. Free virus has a mean t(1/2) of at most 1.2 +/- 0.6 d. We estimate a peak HBV production rate of at least 10(13) virions/day and a maximum production rate of an infected hepatocyte of 200-1,000 virions/day, on average. At this peak rate of virion production we estimate that every possible single and most double mutations would be created each day.

Short-term measures of relative efficacy predict longer-term reductions in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 RNA levels following nelfinavir monotherapy.

We calculated the relative efficacy of treatment, defined as the rate of decline of virus levels in plasma during treatment relative to the rate of decline during highly potent combination therapy, in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) patients treated for 56 days with different doses of the protease inhibitor nelfinavir. Relative efficacies based on the rate of decline of HIV-1 RNA levels in plasma over the first 14 to 21 days correlated with drug dose and viral load reduction by day 56. Calculation of relative treatment efficacies over the first 2 to 3 weeks of treatment can allow rapid assessment of new antiretroviral agents and dosing regimens, reducing the need to keep subjects in clinical trials on monotherapy for prolonged periods of time. Relative efficacy may also serve as a measure of treatment efficacy in patients in initiating established therapies.

Estimation of early hepatitis C viral clearance in patients receiving daily interferon and ribavirin therapy using a mathematical model.

Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 infection are resistant to standard interferon (IFN) therapy. We used a mathematical model to estimate the duration of daily therapy necessary to maximize the number of patients achieving viral negativity before 12 weeks of therapy. Patients from a study to determine HCV RNA reduction over 4 weeks using 3 million units (MU), 5 MU, or 10 MU of IFN alfa daily plus Ribavirin were compared with a group receiving IFN alfa 3 MU three times a week. By extending the linear regression and prediction interval lines, the estimated time to negativity was greater than 12 weeks for the standard IFN group, 42 to greater than 84 days for the 3 MU IFN daily plus Ribavirin, 39 to 60 days for 5 MU IFN daily plus Ribavirin and 25 to 45 days for the 10 MU IFN daily and Ribavirin group, respectively. Thus, the use of a predictive model based on log transformation and linear regression of the early HCV RNA response suggests daily doses of 5 or 10 million units of IFN plus Ribavirin will be theoretically necessary for longer than 4 weeks to maximize the number of patients who clear virus by 12 weeks of therapy. This model may be useful in predicting response in groups of patients receiving other therapies.

Persistence of infectious HIV on follicular dendritic cells.

Follicular dendritic cells (FDCs) trap Ags and retain them in their native state for many months. Shortly after infection, HIV particles are trapped on FDCs and can be observed until the follicular network is destroyed. We sought to determine whether FDCs could maintain trapped virus in an infectious state for long periods of time. Because virus replication would replenish the HIV reservoir and thus falsely prolong recovery of infectious virus, we used a nonpermissive murine model to examine maintenance of HIV infectivity in vivo. We also examined human FDCs in vitro to determine whether they could maintain HIV infectivity. FDC-trapped virus remained infectious in vivo at all time points examined over a 9-mo period. Remarkably, as few as 100 FDCs were sufficient to transmit infection throughout the 9-mo period. Human FDCs maintained HIV infectivity for at least 25 days in vitro, whereas virus without FDCs lost infectivity after only a few days. These data indicate that HIV retained on FDCs can be long lived even in the absence of viral replication and suggest that FDCs stabilize and protect HIV, thus providing a long-term reservoir of infectious virus. These trapped stores of HIV may be replenished with replicating virus that persists even under highly active antiretroviral therapy and would likely be capable of causing infection on cessation of drug therapy.

Resource competition determines selection of B cell repertoires.

Previous experiments with mouse chimeras demonstrated that cellular competition for antigen-specific survival signals plays a crucial role in the maintenance of the naive B cell repertoire. Transgenic (Tg) B cell populations in these chimeras have a shortened lifespan and poor competitive abilities as compared to more diverse non-Tg populations in the same mice. We develop a mathematical model to investigate the mechanism of B cell competition. The model allows for various B cell clones, generated in the bone marrow, to go into the peripheral circulation, where they compete specifically for various ligands providing survival signals. In the model we also find the observed poor competitive abilities of the Tg repertoire. Investigating the nature of the competition in the model, we find that most of the competition is "intraspecific" occurring largely within the clone of truly Tg B cells, and within the repertoire of leaky Tg and non-Tg B cells. This is confirmed by analysing a simplified version of the model, which only allows for intraspecific competition, and resembles a simple ecological model with density-dependent death. The fact that our model accounts for the data, casts doubt on a previous interpretation of the same data arguing that more diverse repertoires outcompete repertoires of lower diversity. Here, we conclude that most of the data can be explained with intraspecific competition, and formulate an experimental prediction that allows one to distinguish between the previous interpretation of inter-specific competition between repertoires, and the current interpretation of intraspecific competition.

Influence of follicular dendritic cells on decay of HIV during antiretroviral therapy.

Drug treatment of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) infection leads to a rapid initial decay of plasma virus followed by a slower second phase of decay. To investigate the role of HIV-1 retained on follicular dendritic cells (FDCs) in this process, we have developed and analyzed a mathematical model for HIV-1 dynamics in lymphoid tissue (LT) that includes FDCs. Analysis of clinical data using this model indicates that decay of HIV-1 during therapy may be influenced by release of FDC-associated virus. The biphasic character of viral decay can be explained by reversible multivalent binding of HIV-1 to receptors on FDCs, indicating that the second phase of decay is not necessarily caused by long-lived or latently infected cells. Furthermore, viral clearance and death of short-lived productively infected cells may be faster than previously estimated. The model, with reasonable parameter values, is consistent with kinetic measurements of viral RNA in plasma, viral RNA on FDCs, productively infected cells in LT, and CD4(+) T cells in LT during therapy.

Different turnover rate of hepatitis C virus clearance by different treatment regimen using interferon-beta.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Since patients with high viral load and HCV subtype 1b are known to respond poorly to interferon (IFN) therapy, the viral dynamics of HCV RNA after initiation of interferon therapy were examined in the present study with respect to two different administration regimens, once vs. twice a day. METHODS: Twenty-two patients with chronic hepatitis C confirmed by liver biopsy and with >1 Meq/ml of HCV RNA and HCV subtype 1b were randomly assigned to two different IFN administration regimens (6 million units of IFN once a day or 3 million units of IFN twice a day), and the serum HCV RNA level was serially measured. RESULTS: Graphs of HCV RNA levels vs. treatment time showed an initial rapid fall, followed by a slower clearance phase. Fitting the data to a model for HCV decay proposed by Neumann et al. showed that the treatment efficacy was significantly higher with twice daily administration. Negativity for HCV RNA measured by Amplicor assay in the twice-a-day administration group was 18%, 73% and >89% at 1, 2 and 3 weeks, respectively, in contrast to 0%, 0%, and 18%, respectively, with once-a-day administration. However, a significant reduction of platelet count and albumin level, a marked increase in serum aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase, and a high incidence of renal toxicity (proteinuria) were found in patients receiving IFN twice a day in comparison with those receiving it once a day. CONCLUSION: The twice-a-day administration of IFN accelerated the clearance of HCV RNA from serum, leading to a more efficient virological response for patients with chronic hepatitis C, but with a high rate of renal toxicity.

The paradox of alloreactivity and self MHC restriction: quantitative analysis and statistics.

Although 1-24% of T cells are alloreactive, i.e., respond to MHC molecules encoded by a foreign haplotype, it is generally believed that T cells cannot recognize foreign peptides binding foreign MHC molecules. We show using a quantitative model that, if T cell selection and activation are affinity-driven, then an alloreactivity of 1-24% is incompatible with the textbook notion that self MHC restriction is absolute. If an average of 1% of clones are alloreactive, then according to our model, at most 20-fold more clones should, on average, be activated by antigens presented on self MHC than by antigens presented on foreign MHC. This ratio is at best 5 if alloreactivity is 5%. These results describe average properties of the murine immune system, but not the outcome of individual experiments. Using supercomputer technology, we simulated 100,000 MHC restriction experiments. Although the average restriction ratio was 7.1, restriction was absolute in 10% of the simulated experiments, greater than 100, although not absolute, in 29%, and below 6 in 24%. This extreme variability agrees with experimental estimates. Our analysis suggests that alloreactivity and average self MHC restriction both cannot be high, but that a low average restriction level is compatible with high levels in a significant number of experiments.