Data-driven determination of zooplankton bioregions and robustness analysis.

Identifying biogeographic regions through cluster analysis of species distribution data is a common method for partitioning ecosystems. Selecting the appropriate cluster analysis method requires a comparison of multiple algorithms. In this study, we demonstrate a data-driven process to select a method for bioregionalization based on community data and test its robustness to data variability following these steps: •We aggregated and curated zooplankton community observations from expeditions in the Northeast Pacific.•We determined the best bioregionalization approach by comparing nine cluster analysis methods using ten goodness of clustering indices.•We evaluated the robustness of the bioregionalization to different sources of sampling and taxonomic variability by comparing the bioregionalization of the overall dataset with bioregionalizations of subsets of the data. The K-means clustering of the log-chord transformed abundance was selected as the optimal method for bioregionalization of the zooplankton dataset. This clustering resulted in the emergence of four bioregions along the cross-shelf gradient: the Offshore, Deep Shelf, Nearshore, and Deep Fjord bioregions. The robustness analyses demonstrated that the bioregionalization was consistent despite variability in the spatial and temporal frequency of sampling, sampling methodology, and taxonomic coverage.

Domoic acid in Canadian Pacific waters, from 2016 to 2021, and relationships with physical and chemical conditions.

Domoic acid, a phycotoxin produced by species of the marine diatom Pseudo-nitzschia, can cause deleterious impacts to marine food webs and human health. Domoic acid and Pseudo-nitzschia spp. were surveyed from 2016 to 2021 in the Pacific waters of Canada to assess their occurrences, concentrations, and relationships with physical and chemical conditions. Domoic acid was common, occurring in measurable concentrations in 73 % of the 454 samples. It occurred in all regions (west coast of Vancouver Island, Salish Sea, Queen Charlotte Sound / Hecate Strait, deep oceanic NE Pacific), in all years and all seasons. Median concentrations were highest along the west coast of Vancouver Island, and lowest in the oceanic waters of the NE Pacific. Winter had the lowest concentrations; no significant differences occurred between spring, summer, and autumn. High domoic acid concentrations equal to or above 100 ng/L were not common, occurring in about 5 % of samples, but in all seasons and all years except 2019. All six Pseudo-nitzschia taxa identified had similar median concentrations, but different frequencies of occurrence. P. cf. australis appeared to be the major contributor to high concentrations of domoic acid. Physico-chemical conditions were described by ten variables: temperature, salinity, density difference between 30 m and the surface (a proxy for vertical stability), chlorophyll a, nitrate, phosphate, silicate, and the ratios nitrate:phosphate, nitrate:silicate, and silicate:phosphate. Statistical analyses, using general linear models, of their relationships with the absence/presence of Pseudo-nitzschia spp. found silicate (negative) to be the most influential variable common in both the west coast of Vancouver Island and Salish Sea regions. Temperature and chlorophyll a were the most influential variables which determined the log10 abundance of Pseudo-nitzschia spp. in both regions. Analyses of the absence/presence of particulate domoic acid per Pseudo-nitzschia cell (excluding P. americana) found chlorophyll a to be the most influential variable common in both regions, whereas no common influential variable determined the log10 concentration of particulate domoic acid per Pseudo-nitzschia cell (excluding P. americana). These results were generally similar to those of other studies from this area, although this study extends these findings to all seasons and all regions of Canada's Pacific waters. The results provide important background information against which major outbreaks and unusual events can be compared. A domoic acid surveillance program during synoptic oceanographic surveys can help to understand where and when it reaches high concentrations at sea and the potential impacts to the marine ecosystem.

Zooplankton variability in the Strait of Georgia, Canada, and relationships with the marine survivals of Chinook and Coho salmon.

The Strait of Georgia, Canada, has complex interactions among natural and human pressures that confound understanding of changes in this system. We report on the interannual variability in biomass of 12 zooplankton taxonomic groups in the deep (bottom depths greater than 50 m) central and northern Strait of Georgia from 1996 to 2018, and their relationships with 10 physical variables. Total zooplankton biomass was dominated (76%) by large-sized crustaceans (euphausiids, large and medium size calanoid copepods, amphipods). The annual anomaly of total zooplankton biomass was highest in the late 1990s, lowest in the mid-2000s, and generally above its climatological (1996-2010) average after 2011, although many individual groups had different patterns. Two latent trends (derived from dynamic factor analyses) described the variability of annual biomass anomalies underlying all zooplankton groups: a U-shaped trend with its minimum in the mid-2000s, and a declining trend from 2001 to 2011. Two latent trends also described the physical variables. The variability represented by these four latent trends clustered into two periods: 1996-2006, with generally declining zooplankton biomass and increasing salinities, and 2007-2018, with increasing zooplankton biomass and decreasing salinities. ARIMA modelling showed sea surface salinity at Entrance Island in the middle Strait of Georgia, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the peak date of the spring phytoplankton bloom were significantly related to the two latent zooplankton trends. ARIMA models comparing zooplankton and physical variables with the marine survivals of four salmon populations which enter the Strait as juveniles (Chinook: Cowichan River, Puntledge River, Harrison River; Coho: Big Qualicum River) all included zooplankton groups consistent with known salmon prey; prominent among the physical variables were sea surface salinity and variables representing the flow from the Fraser River. These regressions explained (adjR2) 38 to 85% of the annual variability in marine survival rates of these salmon populations over the study time period. Although sea temperature was important in some relationships between zooplankton biomass and salmon marine survival, salinity was a more frequent and more important variable, consistent with its influence on the hydrodynamics of the Strait of Georgia system.

Responses of ichthyoplankton assemblages to the recent marine heatwave and previous climate fluctuations in several Northeast Pacific marine ecosystems.

The effects of climate warming on ecosystem dynamics are widespread throughout the world's oceans. In the Northeast Pacific, large-scale climate patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and recently unprecedented warm ocean conditions from 2014 to 2016, referred to as a marine heatwave (MHW), resulted in large-scale ecosystem changes. Larval fishes quickly respond to environmental variability and are sensitive indicators of ecosystem change. Categorizing ichthyoplankton dynamics across marine ecosystem in the Northeast Pacific can help elucidate the magnitude of assemblage shifts, and whether responses are synchronous or alternatively governed by local responses to regional oceanographic conditions. We analyzed time-series data of ichthyoplankton abundances from four ecoregions in the Northeast Pacific ranging from subarctic to subtropical: the Gulf of Alaska (1981-2017), British Columbia (2001-2017), Oregon (1998-2017), and the southern California Current (1981-2017). We assessed the impact of the recent (2014-2016) MHW and how ichthyoplankton assemblages responded to past major climate perturbations since 1981 in these ecosystems. Our results indicate that the MHW caused widespread changes in the ichthyoplankton fauna along the coast of the Northeast Pacific Ocean, but impacts differed between marine ecosystems. For example, abundances for most dominant taxa were at all-time lows since the beginning of sampling in the Gulf of Alaska and British Columbia, while in Oregon and the southern California Current species richness increased as did abundances of species associated with warmer waters. Lastly, species associated with cold waters also increased in abundances close to shore in southern California during the MHW, a pattern that was distinctly different from previous El Niño events. We also found several large-scale, synchronized ichthyoplankton assemblage composition shifts during past major climate events. Current climate projections suggest that MHWs will become more intense and thus our findings can help project future changes in larval dynamics, allowing for improved ecosystem management decisions.

Seasonal and spatial dynamics of the planktonic trophic biomarkers in the Strait of Georgia (northeast Pacific) and implications for fish.

Fish growth and survival are largely determined by the nutritional quality of their food, and the fish that grow quickly during early life stages are more likely to reproduce. To adequately estimate the quality of the prey for fish, it is necessary to understand the trophic links at the base of the food-web. Trophic biomarkers (e.g., stable isotopes and fatty acids) are particularly useful to discriminate and quantify food-web relationships. We explored the connections between plankton food-web components, and the seasonal and spatial dynamics of the trophic biomarkers and how this determines the availability of high-quality prey for juvenile Pacific salmon and Pacific herring in the Strait of Georgia, Canada. We demonstrate that the plankton food-web in the region is largely supported by diatom and flagellate production. We also show that spatial differences in terms of energy transfer efficiency exist in the region. Further, we found that the fatty acid composition of the zooplankton varied seasonally, matching a shift from diatom dominated production in the spring to flagellate dominated production in the summer. This seasonal shift conferred a higher nutritional value to zooplankton in the summer, indicating better quality prey for juvenile salmon and herring during this period.

Changes in ocean health in British Columbia from 2001 to 2016.

Effective management of marine systems requires quantitative tools that can assess the state of the marine social-ecological system and are responsive to management actions and pressures. We applied the Ocean Health Index (OHI) framework to retrospectively assess ocean health in British Columbia annually from 2001 to 2016 for eight goals that represent the values of British Columbia's coastal communities. We found overall ocean health improved over the study period, from 75 (out of 100) in 2001 to 83 in 2016, with scores for inhabited regions ranging from 68 (North Coast, 2002) to 87 (West Vancouver Island, 2011). Highest-scoring goals were Tourism & Recreation (average 94 over the period) and Habitat Services (100); lowest-scoring goals were Sense of Place (61) and Food Provision (64). Significant increases in scores over the time period occurred for Food Provision (+1.7 per year), Sense of Place (+1.4 per year), and Coastal Livelihoods (+0.6 per year), while Habitat Services (-0.01 per year) and Biodiversity (-0.09 per year) showed modest but statistically significant declines. From the results of our time-series analysis, we used the OHI framework to evaluate impacts of a range of management actions. Despite challenges in data availability, we found evidence for the ability of management to reduce pressures on several goals, suggesting the potential of OHI as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of marine resource management to improve ocean health. Our OHI assessment provides an important comprehensive evaluation of ocean health in British Columbia, and our open and transparent process highlights opportunities for improving accessibility of social and ecological data to inform future assessment and management of ocean health.

Comparative analysis of marine ecosystems: international production modelling workshop.

Understanding the drivers that dictate the productivity of marine ecosystems continues to be a globally important issue. A vast literature identifies three main processes that regulate the production dynamics of such ecosystems: biophysical, exploitative and trophodynamic. Exploring the prominence among this 'triad' of drivers, through a synthetic analysis, is critical for understanding how marine ecosystems function and subsequently produce fisheries resources of interest to humans. To explore this topic further, an international workshop was held on 10-14 May 2010, at the National Academy of Science's Jonsson Center in Woods Hole, MA, USA. The workshop compiled the data required to develop production models at different hierarchical levels (e.g. species, guild, ecosystem) for many of the major Northern Hemisphere marine ecosystems that have supported notable fisheries. Analyses focused on comparable total system biomass production, functionally equivalent species production, or simulation studies for 11 different marine fishery ecosystems. Workshop activities also led to new analytical tools. Preliminary results suggested common patterns driving overall fisheries production in these ecosystems, but also highlighted variation in the relative importance of each among ecosystems.

Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management.

Regime shifts are abrupt changes between contrasting, persistent states of any complex system. The potential for their prediction in the ocean and possible management depends upon the characteristics of the regime shifts: their drivers (from anthropogenic to natural), scale (from the local to the basin) and potential for management action (from adaptation to mitigation). We present a conceptual framework that will enhance our ability to detect, predict and manage regime shifts in the ocean, illustrating our approach with three well-documented examples: the North Pacific, the North Sea and Caribbean coral reefs. We conclude that the ability to adapt to, or manage, regime shifts depends upon their uniqueness, our understanding of their causes and linkages among ecosystem components and our observational capabilities.