Cost-benefit analysis of intervention reducing young stock mortality in Ethiopia.

Livestock provide meat, milk, draught labour, are used for breeding, and act as a store of value for smallholder farmers. High young stock mortality (YSM) has the potential to cause significant financial loss. The Young Stock Mortality Reduction Consortium collaborated on a project to deliver a package of basic health and husbandry interventions to reduce YSM for cattle and small ruminants in mixed and pastoral production systems in Ethiopia. Prior to the intervention, YSM rates ranged from 9.8% for calves in mixed systems, to 35.6% for small ruminants in pastoral systems. Proportional reductions YSM from the intervention ranged from 60% for calves and for small ruminants in mixed systems, to 72% for calves in pastoral systems. This brief research report assesses the costs and benefits of the intervention ex-poste to determine its efficiency. NPVs for the intervention (per household) were calculated for a range of benefit periods (from 1 to 20 years), based on the cost of training enumerators and farmers and the net annual household benefits realised within each benefit period. We found in both pastoral and mixed systems the net annual household benefit for the intervention was positive. For pastoral households the intervention achieves a positive NPV after 2 years. For mixed households the intervention achieves a positive NPV after 11 years. Overall, we found the benefits of the intervention exceed the costs, by a very large amount in pastoral systems, and that benefits were larger for households that kept larger numbers of breeding females.

Empirical and model-based evidence for a negligible role of cattle in peste des petits ruminants virus transmission and eradication.

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) is a multi-host pathogen with sheep and goats as main hosts. To investigate the role of cattle in the epidemiology of PPR, we simulated conditions similar to East African zero-grazing husbandry practices in a series of trials with local Zebu cattle (Bos taurus indicus) co-housed with goats (Capra aegagrus hircus). Furthermore, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of PPRV-transmission from cattle to goats. Of the 32 cattle intranasally infected with the locally endemic lineage IV strain PPRV/Ethiopia/Habru/2014 none transmitted PPRV to 32 co-housed goats. However, these cattle or cattle co-housed with PPRV-infected goats seroconverted. The results confirm previous studies that cattle currently play a negligible role in PPRV-transmission and small ruminant vaccination is sufficient for eradication. However, the possible emergence of PPRV strains more virulent for cattle may impact eradication. Therefore, continued monitoring of PPRV circulation and evolution is recommended.

Systematic map of recent evidence on reproductive performance of cattle in Africa.

Good cattle reproductive performance is essential for livestock productivity. Farmers are highly dependent on the success of productive outputs to support their livelihoods. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), however, optimal reproduction of cows and bulls is comparatively less well defined, with information on key reproductive parameters and reproductive management often not available. The aim of this study was to collate and synthesise the recent published evidence on cattle reproductive performance in selected sub-Saharan countries.Systematic mapping methodology was used, with searches conducted for both cow and bull reproductive performance in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, for the period 2012-2022, in English language. Search returns were screened for relevance at title and abstract, and full-text levels, based on the research question criteria.A substantial number of studies were identified for cows (n = 133), but only very few for bulls (n = 11). A large proportion of reported studies have been conducted in Ethiopia, with relatively few from the other countries, and most studies published between 2014 and 2016, and in 2021. Certain reproductive parameters received more attention than others; calving interval was reported in 86 studies, while culling due to infertility was reported in eight studies.The study highlights where research is being conducted in this area, and importantly where there is a gap, in particular on bull reproductive performance. While there were a range of values reported for cow reproductive parameters, the values were reasonable, indicating that it is possible to have good reproductive performance in LMICs. The synthesis of studies in the map should help to inform farmers and their advisors, at farm and national levels.

Interventions to reduce camel and small ruminant young stock morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia.

Morbidity and mortality of young stock is a challenge for livestock producers globally. In Ethiopia, where camels and small ruminants (sheep and goats) are essential smallholder and pastoral livestock, young stock losses can cause severe consequences to livelihoods. This pilot study, part of a Government-led Young Stock Mortality Reduction Consortium project, was undertaken to identify and evaluate interventions to reduce young stock mortality in mixed crop-livestock and pastoral production systems in Ethiopia. Pastoralists and mixed crop-livestock farmers were enrolled by convenience sampling across four regions. Households were sampled with questionnaire surveys to establish baseline mortality risk and prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease in animals younger than one year, and followed longitudinally over a one-year period, with final evaluations conducted from March to July 2020. Mortality risk and prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease before and after implementation were compared using Poisson regression models including household as random effect. Prior to intervention, median camel mortality, prevalence of diarrhoea, and respiratory disease across production systems in the different households was 0.4, 0.44 and 0.2, respectively. This compared to median pastoralist small ruminant mortality risk and prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease of 0.45, 0.32 and 0.18, respectively. Post-intervention, median camel mortality, prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease dropped to 0.1, 0.08 and 0. Similarly, more than half of the small ruminant households reported no mortality, and no cases of diarrhoea or respiratory disease. In camels, rate ratios of mortality risk, prevalence of diarrhoea, and respiratory disease post-intervention compared to the baseline were 0.41, 0.41 and 0.37. In small ruminants, rate ratios were 0.33, 0.35 and 0.46. All reductions were statistically significant (p < 0.01). Generally, pastoralists experienced higher mortality and disease prevalence compared to mixed crop-livestock smallholders, and the effect of intervention was slightly higher in pastoralist households. The pilot study findings demonstrated highly significant reductions in mortality and risk of diarrhoea and respiratory disease post-interventions. However, not all households benefitted from the interventions, with a few households reporting increased mortality and morbidity. Many households had very few animals which made it challenging to measure impact and the study was conducted over a single year, without a control group, so between year effects could not be accounted for in the reductions observed. These findings should contribute to improved livestock productivity in Ethiopia.

Systematic map of the most recent evidence (2010-2019) on ruminant production-limiting disease prevalence and associated mortality in Ethiopia.

Background: Ethiopia's livestock sector supports the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers. However, despite the improvements of recent years, livestock productivity remains low due to critical constraints, including infectious diseases. The aim of this study was to collate and synthesize the published evidence on ruminant disease frequency and disease-associated mortality in Ethiopia, by identifying knowledge gaps and clusters in the literature to provide the basis for a decision-making tool. Methods: Searches on both bibliographic and organization databases were conducted in English and were restricted to the period 2010-2019. Search results were screened for relevance at title, abstract and full text level. Results: There were 716 articles identified relevant to the research question. The systematic map revealed an increased publication output from 2012-2017, compared to 2010-2011 and 2018-2019. Most studies were conducted in Oromia, Amhara and SNNPR. A substantial body of evidence was found for trypanosomosis, ectoparasite infestation, fasciolosis, nematodiasis, echinococcosis, and brucellosis. Conclusion: This study suggests that despite the high output of epidemiological publications, further understanding of a considerable number of diseases is required and where evidence is abundant, synthesis of information should be carried out in order to better inform decisions on disease control priorities in the livestock sector.

Patterns of mortality in domesticated ruminants in Ethiopia.

Background: Premature death of livestock is a problem in all ruminant production systems. While the number of premature ruminant deaths in a country is a reasonable indicator for the nation's health, few data sources exist in a country like Ethiopia that can be used to generate valid estimates. The present study aimed to establish if three different data sets, each with imperfect information on ruminant mortality, including abortions, could be combined into improved estimates of nationwide mortality in Ethiopia. Methods: We combined information from a recent survey of ruminant mortality with information from the Living Standards Measurement Study and the Disease Outbreak and Vaccination Reporting dataset. Generalized linear mixed and hurdle models were used for data analysis, with results summarized using predicted outcomes. Results: Analyses indicated that most herds experienced zero mortality and reproductive losses, with rare occasions of larger losses. Diseases causing deaths varied greatly both geographically and over time. There was little agreement between the different datasets. While the models aid the understanding of patterns of mortality and reproductive losses, the degree of variation observed limited the predictive scope. Conclusions: The models revealed some insight into why mortality rates are variable over time and are therefore less useful in measuring production or health status, and it is suggested that alternative measures of productivity, such as number of offspring raised to 1 year old per dam, would be more stable over time and likely more indicative.

Use of a cow-side oestrus detection test for fertility management in Kenyan smallholder dairy herds.

Background: The use of artificial insemination (AI) has great potential to improve smallholder dairy herds in Africa, however poor success and, in some situations, high costs in Kenya, have been discouraging.  Effective AI requires accurate oestrus detection and the measurement of progesterone (P4) can be used to indicate oestrus as well as non-pregnancy.  A cow-side progesterone lateral flow test, P4 Rapid, was evaluated as an aid to detect oestrus and non-pregnancy in Kenyan dairy cows, and assessed for association with AI efficiency.  Methods: A total of 527 cows were enrolled in the study, from two counties in central and southern Kenya.  Cattle in the test group (n = 308) were presented when suspected to be in oestrus and tested with the P4 Rapid (low P4 = oestrus, medium P4 = inconclusive, high P4 = not in oestrus/pregnant).  Cattle with low P4 were inseminated.  Cattle in the control group (n = 219) were inseminated when oestrus behaviour was detected i.e. standard practice. Results: Of the total P4 Rapid tests performed (n = 745), 1.5% were inconclusive, with the true accuracy of the test between 87-97%.  Conception rates were not significantly higher in the test group (83.9%) compared to the control group (77.9%). Abortion rates were not significantly different between the control (9.5%) and test groups (8.2%).  In the test group, 6.2% (19/308) cows showed a medium or high P4 level on day 0 and nine of these were subsequently found to have been already pregnant. Conclusions: The data indicated that the P4 Rapid test can be a useful tool to assist farmer decision-making in the confirmation of correct timing for AI, and importantly may avoid unnecessary inseminations in pregnant animals, thus reducing the risk of AI-induced abortion.

A multi-stakeholder participatory pilot study of the data demands of the future Ethiopian dairy sector.

Background:  This paper describes a pilot study undertaken in 2018, to determine the key data needs of each of the different Ethiopian dairy sector stakeholder groups.  The study aimed to characterise the emerging trends of dairy product production, processing, retailing and consumption in Ethiopia, and to identify and characterise current and future data needs of different stakeholders. Methods:  The study undertook a mapping of the interactions between different stakeholders in the dairy sector, and an interactive evaluation of the institutional data repository and access options.  Focus group discussions and interviews were held in three regions of the country prior to a two-day workshop in the capital Addis Ababa.  Data needs were characterised by type, availability, format, level of detail, methods of dissemination, uptake and use, and the institutional arrangement, including the different roles of public and private sectors in decision making processes. Results:  The study highlighted the main data needs and identified several broader institutional issues constraining the further development of the Ethiopian dairy sector.  The stakeholder groups endorsed the reactivation of a national dairy board, independent of government but closely incorporating government, and with the buy-in and membership of private sector enterprises, including producers, processers, service providers and consumers, to provide clearer facilitative leadership on the dairy industry. Conclusions:  The study workshop provided a timely discussion between diverse stakeholders, including government, and several potential organisations were suggested to host and manage a national dairy database. Importantly, the reactivation of a national dairy board was strongly endorsed.  It was recommended that stakeholder links be established, sector-specific data needs be elevated to higher detail, and a national roll out of herd-specific data recording schemes was called for, to allow for effective evidence-based policies and decision making.

Reducing Calf Mortality in Ethiopia.

Morbidity and mortality of young stock present economic and production challenges to livestock producers globally. In Ethiopia, calf morbidity and mortality rates, particularly due to diarrhea and respiratory disease, are high, limiting production, incomes, and the ability of farmers to improve their livelihoods. In this paper, we present findings from the combined experience of the Young Stock Mortality Reduction Consortium, which conducted epidemiological and intervention testing in calves across three production systems. This innovative alliance identified Cryptosporidium parvum and E. Coli K99 as the most common causes of diarrhea in pastoral and peri-urban calves; Strongyloides spp. as the most common fecal parasite in mixed crop-livestock and peri-urban calves; and bovine adenovirus, parainfluenza virus-3, and bovine respiratory syncytial virus as the most common respiratory pathogens in peri-urban calves. Furthermore, by improving producer knowledge with respect to fundamental livestock husbandry, feeding, housing, and neonatal care practices, calf mortality risk across production systems was reduced by 31.4 to 71.4% compared to baseline (between 10.5 and 32.1%), whereas risk of diarrhea was reduced by 52.6-75.3% (baseline between 11.4 and 30.4%) and risk of respiratory disease was reduced by 23.6-80.8% (baseline between 3.3 and 16.3%). These findings have informed scaling strategies and can potentially contribute to improved livestock productivity and human livelihoods in Ethiopia.

Safety and Efficacy of the East Coast Fever Muguga Cocktail Vaccine: A Systematic Review.

Immunisation of livestock with high quality vaccines is considered an essential approach to controlling many animal diseases. The only currently available commercial vaccine to protect cattle from East Coast fever (ECF), a tick-borne disease caused by Theileria parva, is an unconventional "infection and treatment method" (ITM) involving administration of a combination of live T. parva isolates, referred to as the "Muguga cocktail", and simultaneous treatment with long-acting oxytetracycline. Veterinary vaccine research and development typically involves studies designed to demonstrate vaccine quality, safety, and efficacy; however, as there were no such purpose-designed registration studies conducted for the Muguga cocktail, evidence for safety and efficacy is solely based on that which is available in the clinical literature. An extensive systematic review was conducted to analyse the evidence available in the literature in order to establish the safety and efficacy of the Muguga cocktail vaccine. A combination of meta-analyses and narrative summaries was conducted. A total of 61 studies met the criteria to be included in the systematic review. The majority of studies demonstrated or reported in favour of the vaccine with regards to safety and efficacy of the Muguga cocktail vaccine. Proximity to buffalo often resulted in reduced vaccine efficacy, and reports of shed and transmission of vaccine components affected the overall interpretation of safety. Better understanding of control options for this devastating livestock disease is important for policymakers and livestock keepers, enabling them to make informed decisions with regards to the health of their animals and their livelihoods.

A study of the effectiveness of a detergent-based California mastitis test (CMT), using Ethiopian and Nigerian domestic detergents, for the detection of high somatic cell counts in milk and their reliability compared to the commercial UK CMT.

Background:  The California mastitis test (CMT) is a simple cow-side indicator of the somatic cell count (SCC) in milk, providing a useful tool in identifying cases of subclinical mastitis in cattle. Mastitis, and in particular subclinical mastitis, is a major concern in Ethiopia and Nigeria, yet detection is challenging due to cost and access to commercial CMT reagents. Methods: Commercially available domestic detergents from Ethiopia and Nigeria were compared (n = 3 for each country) with the UK commercial CMT reagent in their ability to detect high SCC (>400,000 cells/ml milk).  Sensitivity and specificity of the CMT test were calculated for the different detergents and positive and negative predictive values were established. Results:  The average sensitivities of the tests ranged from 28-75% for the Ethiopian detergents and 68-80% for the Nigerian detergents, compared to 76% for the UK domestic detergent.  Test specificities were 84-98%, 93-97% and 96%, respectively. Conclusions:  Overall, the detergents demonstrated higher specificity than sensitivity.   Nigerian detergents performed better than the Ethiopian products, however, the study identified suitable domestic detergents from both Ethiopia and Nigeria, comparable to the UK commercial CMT reagent, and we recommend their use as alternative CMT reagents for livestock-keepers to aid in cost-effective diagnosis of mastitis.

Development of a systematic mapping review protocol for the most recent evidence on ruminant infectious disease frequency and disease-associated mortality: Ethiopia as a case study.

Almost 19% of the GDP of Ethiopia results from livestock production. Ruminants, in particular, form the majority of the national herd and are a critical source of income for smallholder farmers. Infectious diseases have been identified as a major cause of reduced livestock productivity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); therefore, a sound and comprehensive understanding of the relevant evidence would be beneficial in order to enable decision making on disease control policies. However, livestock disease data from sub-Saharan Africa is variable and disparate, which poses a challenge for evidence synthesis. This paper describes a protocol for a systematic mapping review of the recent available evidence on ruminant disease prevalence and associated mortality in Ethiopia. Literature sources will be identified using database search strategies. The titles, abstracts and, subsequently, full texts will be screened for inclusion based on predefined eligibility criteria. Specific data will be extracted and a preliminary qualitative assessment of the evidence will be performed using predefined indicators. The planned systematic map will be the first to provide a large-scale overview of the available ruminant disease evidence in Ethiopia; the final output will be an interactive dashboard tool to inform critical stakeholders in policy and research.

The Opportunity To Eradicate Peste des Petits Ruminants.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly infectious disease of sheep and goats that is caused by PPR virus, a member of the genus Morbillivirus that includes the viruses that cause rinderpest (RP) in cattle. RP was the first animal disease to be globally eradicated in 2011 and is only the second disease, after smallpox, to have ever been eradicated. PPR is one of the principal constraints to small ruminant production in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. The epidemiology of PPR and RP as well as the technologies available for their diagnosis and control are similar. The conditions that favored the eradication of RP are also largely present for PPR. In this work, we outline the evolving strategy for eradication in light of current opportunities and challenges, as well as the lessons from other eradication programs in animal and human health. The global PPR situation and technology for its control are summarized. A strategy based on the lessons from previous eradication efforts that integrate epidemiology, social science, and economics as tools to target and motivate vaccination is summarized. Major aspects of the cost and benefit-cost analysis of the indicated program are presented. The overall undiscounted cost of eradication was estimated as $3.1 billion, and the benefit-cost ratio for the most likely scenario was estimated at 33.8. We close with a discussion of the possible next steps.

The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants: A Benefit-Cost Analysis.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the economic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia.

Induction of ovulation in seasonally anestrous mares under ambient lights using recombinant equine FSH (reFSH).

Traditionally, mares are put under artificial lights to advance the first ovulation of the year. The aim of the present study was to determine the efficacy of recombinant equine FSH (reFSH) in stimulating follicular development and advancing the first ovulation of the year in seasonally anestrous mares compared with anestrous mares given a placebo. Both groups of mares were housed under ambient light conditions. Sixty deep anestrous mares of light horse breeds (follicular diameters ≤ 20 mm in diameter and progesterone <1 ng/mL) were maintained under a natural photoperiod at three different sites: University of California, Davis, Colorado State University, and University of Kentucky Gluck Centre. Twenty mares at each site were randomly allocated to receive either 0.65 mg of reFSH (group A: treatment; n = 10) or a placebo (group B: control; n = 10) twice daily by im beginning on January 31. Treatment continued until one or more preovulatory follicles developed or up to a maximum of 15 days. Randomized treatments were blinded. Follicular development was closely monitored by transrectal ultrasonography. When the largest follicle reached ≥ 35 mm in diameter, reFSH treatment was discontinued and an injection of 2500 international units of hCG was administered iv 36 hours later to induce ovulation. Jugular blood samples were collected daily from all mares at University of California, Davis, and processed for LH, FSH, progesterone, estradiol-17ß, and immunoreactive-inhibin by RIA. All 30 mares receiving reFSH (group A) developed follicles ≥ 35 mm within 7.4 ± 1.6 days of treatment. Twenty-three of the 30 reFSH-treated mares (group A) ovulated within 72 hours after hCG administration. In contrast, mares in group B (placebo, control) did not exhibit significant follicular development and none ovulated within the 15-day observation period. Mares in group A had significantly higher plasma levels of FSH, estradiol-17ß, and immunoreactive-inhibin during treatment but did not exhibit a preovulatory LH surge. Mares administered reFSH returned to anestrus and spontaneously ovulated at a similar calendar date as control mares. These data indicate that reFSH was effective in stimulating the development of ovarian follicles and advancing the first ovulation of the year in seasonally anestrous mares under ambient lights but was not successful in inducing continued cyclicity.