Regional Differences in Clinical Presentation and Prognosis of Patients With Post-Sustained Virologic Response Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Widespread use of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus infection has been paralleled with increased numbers of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving sustained virologic response (post-SVR HCC) worldwide. Few data compare regional differences in the presentation and prognosis of patients with post-SVR HCC. METHODS: We identified patients with advanced fibrosis (F3/F4) who developed incident post-SVR HCC between March 2015 and October 2021 from 30 sites in Europe, North America, South America, the Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. We compared patient demographics, liver dysfunction, and tumor burden by region. We compared overall survival by region using Kaplan-Meier analysis and identified factors associated with survival using multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 8796 patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved SVR, 583 (6.6%) developed incident HCC. There was marked regional variation in the proportion of patients detected by surveillance (range: 59.5%-100%), median maximum tumor diameter (range, 1.8-5.0 cm), and the proportion with multinodular HCC (range, 15.4%-60.8%). The prognosis of patients highly varied by region (hazard ratio range, 1.82-9.92), with the highest survival rates in East Asia, North America, and South America, and the lowest survival rates in the Middle East and South Asia. After adjusting for geographic region, HCC surveillance was associated with early stage detection (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 71.0% vs 21.3%; P < .0001) and lower mortality rates (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.18-0.46). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical characteristics, including early stage detection, and prognosis of post-SVR HCC differed significantly across geographic regions. Surveillance utilization appears to be a high-yield intervention target to improve prognosis among patients with post-SVR HCC globally.

Optimizing Diagnostic Accuracy of Fine Needle Aspiration Biopsy Calcitonin Measurements in Detecting Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma.

Background: The optimal cutoff value of calcitonin (Ctn) levels measured using an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLIA) obtained from the washout fluid of fine needle aspiration (FNA-Ctn) for the diagnosis of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is currently not established. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of FNA-Ctn for the diagnosis and location of MTC in patients with nodular or multinodular goiters. Methods: This was a case-control study nested on a prospective multicenter cohort of patients with nodular or multinodular goiter, normal or elevated serum Ctn, and thyroidectomy indications. Ctn and FNA-Ctn were measured using ECLIA methodology before surgery. From this nested cohort, MTC cases and controls (non-medullary pathology) were identified from the final pathological analysis. Cumulative incidence sampling of controls was randomly performed at a ratio of 1:2. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) were calculated for patients and the total number of thyroid nodules. Results: From 1272 patients included in the prospective cohort, 50 MTC cases and 105 controls were included. In this study, 286 thyroid nodules were evaluated (63 MTC and 223 non-MTCs). The median serum Ctn value was significantly higher in cases (525 pg/mL [interquartile range (IQR), 162.5-1.200]) than in controls (1.6 pg/mL [IQR, 0.5-5.6]; p < 0.001). The median FNA-Ctn value was significantly higher in MTC nodules (3.100 pg/mL [IQR, 450-45,200]) than in non-MTC nodules (0.5 pg/mL [IQR, 0.5-0.5]; p < 0.0001). In 11 MTC patients with multinodular goiter, the FNA-Ctn value was significantly higher in non-medullary nodules located in the same lobe where an MTC nodule was diagnosed (p = 0.0002). Overall, the FNA-Ctn AUROC was 0.99 [95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.0], and a threshold of ≥220 pg/mL showed 100% sensitivity and 98% specificity for MTC diagnosis. Conclusions: The use of FNA-Ctn measured by ECLIA showed adequate diagnostic accuracy for MTC diagnosis. Moreover, it may be clinically useful for localization in multinodular goiter when lobectomy is considered. Clinical Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT06067594.

From evidence to clinical practice: Bridging the gap of new liver cancer therapies in Latin America.

The most common primary liver tumors are hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma. They constitute the sixth most common neoplasia and the third cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Although both tumors may share etiologic factors, diagnosis, prognostic factors, and treatments, they differ substantially in determining distinctive clinical management. In recent years, significant advances have been made in the management of these neoplasms, particularly in advanced stages. In this review, we focus on the most relevant diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment aspects of both, hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma, underlying their applicability in Latin America.

Liver decompensation is a frequent cause of treatment discontinuation and prognostic factor in intermediate-advanced HCC.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: With the advent of new therapeutic options for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for intermediate or advanced stages of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), regional real-world data regarding prognostic survival factors are of significant importance. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in Latin America including BCLC B or C patients since 15th May 2018. We report here the second interim analysis focusing on prognostic variables and causes of treatment discontinuation. Cox proportional hazard survival analysis was performed, estimating hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS: Overall, 390 patients were included, 55.1% and 44.9% were BCLC B and C at the time of study enrollment. Cirrhosis was present in 89.5% of the cohort. Among the BCLC-B group, 42.3% were treated with TACE with a median survival since the first session of 41.9 months. Liver decompensation before TACE was independently associated with increased mortality [HR 3.22 (CI 1.64;6.33); P<.001]. Systemic treatment was initiated in 48.2% of the cohort (n=188), with a median survival of 15.7 months. Of these, 48.9% presented first-line treatment discontinuation (44.4% tumor progression, 29.3% liver decompensation, 18.5% symptomatic deterioration, and 7.8% intolerance), and only 28.7% received second-line systemic treatments. Liver decompensation [HR 2.9 (1.64;5.29); P<.0001], and symptomatic progression [HR 3.9 (1.53;9.78); P=0.004] were independently associated with mortality after first-line systemic treatment discontinuation. CONCLUSIONS: The complexity of these patients, with one-third presenting liver decompensation after systemic therapies, underlines the need for multidisciplinary team management and the central role of hepatologists.

AFP score and metroticket 2.0 perform similarly and could be used in a "within-ALL" clinical decision tool.

Background & Aims: Two recently developed composite models, the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) score and Metroticket 2.0, could be used to select patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are candidates for liver transplantation (LT). The aim of this study was to compare the predictive performance of both models and to evaluate the net risk reclassification of post-LT recurrence between them using each model's original thresholds. Methods: This multicenter cohort study included 2,444 adult patients who underwent LT for HCC in 47 centers from Europe and Latin America. A competing risk regression analysis estimating sub-distribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and 95% CIs for recurrence was used (Fine and Gray method). Harrell's adapted c-statistics were estimated. The net reclassification index for recurrence was compared based on each model's original thresholds. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.8 years, there were 310 recurrences and 496 competing events (20.3%). Both models predicted recurrence, HCC survival and survival better than Milan criteria (p <0.0001). At last tumor reassessment before LT, c-statistics did not significantly differ between the two composite models, either as original or threshold versions, for recurrence (0.72 vs. 0.68; p = 0.06), HCC survival, and overall survival after LT. We observed predictive gaps and overlaps between the model's thresholds, and no significant gain on reclassification. Patients meeting both models ("within-ALL") at last tumor reassessment presented the lowest 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC recurrence (7.7%; 95% CI 5.1-11.5) and higher 5-year post-LT survival (70.0%; 95% CI 64.9-74.6). Conclusions: In this multicenter cohort, Metroticket 2.0 and the AFP score demonstrated a similar ability to predict HCC recurrence post-LT. The combination of these composite models might be a promising clinical approach. Impact and implications: Composite models were recently proposed for the selection of liver transplant (LT) candidates among individuals with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We found that both the AFP score and Metroticket 2.0 predicted post-LT HCC recurrence and survival better than Milan criteria; the Metroticket 2.0 did not result in better reclassification for transplant selection compared to the AFP score, with predictive gaps and overlaps between the two models; patients who met low-risk thresholds for both models had the lowest 5-year recurrence rate. We propose prospectively testing the combination of both models, to further optimize the LT selection process for candidates with HCC.

Implementation of a re-linkage to care strategy in patients with chronic hepatitis C who were lost to follow-up in Latin America.

To achieve WHO's goal of eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV), innovative strategies must be designed to diagnose and treat more patients. Therefore, we aimed to describe an implementation strategy to identify patients with HCV who were lost to follow-up (LTFU) and offer them re-linkage to HCV care. We conducted an implementation study utilizing a strategy to contact patients with HCV who were not under regular follow-up in 13 countries from Latin America. Patients with HCV were identified by the international classification of diseases (ICD-9/10) or equivalent. Medical records were then reviewed to confirm the diagnosis of chronic HCV infection defined by anti-HCV+ and detectable HCV-RNA. Identified patients who were not under follow-up by a liver specialist were contacted by telephone or email, and offered a medical reevaluation. A total of 10,364 patients were classified to have HCV. After reviewing their medical charts, 1349 (13%) had undetectable HCV-RNA or were wrongly coded. Overall, 9015 (86.9%) individuals were identified with chronic HCV infection. A total of 5096 (56.5%) patients were under routine HCV care and 3919 (43.5%) had been LTFU. We were able to contact 1617 (41.3%) of the 3919 patients who were LTFU at the primary medical institution, of which 427 (26.4%) were cured at a different institutions or were dead. Of the remaining patients, 906 (76.1%) were candidates for retrieval. In our cohort, about one out of four patients with chronic HCV who were LTFU were candidates to receive treatment. This strategy has the potential to be effective, accessible and significantly impacts on the HCV care cascade.

Outcome of liver cancer patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection: An International, Multicentre, Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Information about the impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in patients with liver cancer is lacking. This study characterizes the outcomes and mortality risk in this population. METHODS: Multicentre retrospective, cross-sectional, international study of liver cancer patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection registered between February and December 2020. Clinical data at SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis and outcomes were registered. RESULTS: Two hundred fifty patients from 38 centres were included, 218 with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 32 with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA). The median age was 66.5 and 64.5 years, and 84.9% and 21.9% had cirrhosis in the HCC and iCCA cohorts respectively. Patients had advanced cancer stage at SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis in 39.0% of the HCC and 71.9% of the iCCA patients. After a median follow-up of 7.20 (IQR: 1.84-11.24) months, 100 (40%) patients have died, 48% of the deaths were SARS-CoV-2-related. Forty (18.4%) HCC patients died within 30-days. The death rate increase was significantly different according to the BCLC stage (6.10% [95% CI 2.24-12.74], 11.76% [95% CI 4.73-22.30], 20.69% [95% CI 11.35-31.96] and 34.52% [95% CI 17.03-52.78] for BCLC 0/A, B, C and D, respectively; p = .0017). The hazard ratio was 1.45 (95% CI 0.49-4.31; p = .5032) in BCLC-B versus 0/A, and 3.13 (95% CI 1.29-7.62; p = .0118) in BCLC-C versus 0/A in the competing risk Cox regression model. Nineteen out of 32 iCCA (59.4%) died, and 12 deaths were related to SARS-CoV-2 infection. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest cohort of liver cancer patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. It characterizes the 30-day mortality risk of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients with HCC during this period.

R3-AFP score is a new composite tool to refine prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation.

Background & Aims: Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are selected for liver transplantation (LT) based on pre-LT imaging ± alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) level, but discrepancies between pre-LT tumour assessment and explant are frequent. Our aim was to design an explant-based recurrence risk reassessment score to refine prediction of recurrence after LT and provide a framework to guide post-LT management. Methods: Adult patients who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2018 for HCC in 47 centres were included. A prediction model for recurrence was developed using competing-risk regression analysis in a European training cohort (TC; n = 1,359) and tested in a Latin American validation cohort (VC; n=1,085). Results: In the TC, 76.4% of patients with HCC met the Milan criteria, and 89.9% had an AFP score of ≤2 points. The recurrence risk reassessment (R3)-AFP model was designed based on variables independently associated with recurrence in the TC (with associated weights): ≥4 nodules (sub-distribution of hazard ratio [SHR] = 1.88, 1 point), size of largest nodule (3-6 cm: SHR = 1.83, 1 point; >6 cm: SHR = 5.82, 5 points), presence of microvascular invasion (MVI; SHR = 2.69, 2 points), nuclear grade >II (SHR = 1.20, 1 point), and last pre-LT AFP value (101-1,000 ng/ml: SHR = 1.57, 1 point; >1,000 ng/ml: SHR = 2.83, 2 points). Wolber's c-index was 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80), significantly superior to an R3 model without AFP (0.75; 95% CI 0.72-0.79; p = 0.01). Four 5-year recurrence risk categories were identified: very low (score = 0; 5.5%), low (1-2 points; 15.1%), high (3-6 points; 39.1%), and very high (>6 points; 73.9%). The R3-AFP score performed well in the VC (Wolber's c-index of 0.78; 95% CI 0.73-0.83). Conclusions: The R3 score including the last pre-LT AFP value (R3-AFP score) provides a user-friendly, standardised framework to design post-LT surveillance strategies, protocols, or adjuvant therapy trials for HCC not limited to the Milan criteria. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT03775863. Lay summary: Considering discrepancies between pre-LT tumour assessment and explant are frequent, reassessing the risk of recurrence after LT is critical to further refine the management of patients with HCC. In a large and international cohort of patients who underwent transplantation for HCC, we designed and validated the R3-AFP model based on variables independently associated with recurrence post-LT (number of nodules, size of largest nodule, presence of MVI, nuclear grade, and last pre-LT AFP value). The R3-AFP model including last available pre-LT AFP value outperformed the original R3 model only based on explant features. The final R3-AFP scoring system provides a robust framework to design post-LT surveillance strategies, protocols, or adjuvant therapy trials, irrespective of criteria used to select patients with HCC for LT.

Performance of pre-transplant criteria in prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma progression and waitlist dropout.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Liver transplantation (LT) selection models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have not been proposed to predict waitlist dropout because of tumour progression. The aim of this study was to compare the alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) model and other pre-LT models in their prediction of HCC dropout. METHODS: A multicentre cohort study was conducted in 20 Latin American transplant centres, including 994 listed patients for LT with HCC from 2012 to 2018. Longitudinal tumour characteristics, and patterns of progression were recorded at time of listing, after treatments and at last follow-up over the waitlist period. Competing risk regression models were performed, and model's discrimination was compared estimating Harrell's adapted c-statistics. RESULTS: HCC dropout rate was significantly higher in patients beyond (24% [95% CI 16-28]) compared to those within Milan criteria (8% [95% IC 5%-12%]; p < .0001), with a SHR of 3.01 [95% CI 2.03-4.47]), adjusted for waiting list time and bridging therapies (c-index 0.63 [95% CI 0.57; 0.69). HCC dropout rates were higher in patients with AFP scores >2 (adjusted SHR of 3.17 [CI 2.13-4.71]), c-index of 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77; p = .09 vs Milan). Similar discrimination power for HCC dropout was observed between the AFP score and the Metroticket 2.0 model. In patients within Milan, an AFP score >2 points discriminated two populations with a higher risk of HCC dropout (SHR 1.68 [95% CI 1.08-2.61]). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-transplant selection models similarly predicted HCC dropout. However, the AFP model can discriminate a higher risk of dropout among patients within Milan criteria.

International study on the outcome of locoregional therapy for liver transplant in hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Milan criteria.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Good outcomes after liver transplantation (LT) have been reported after successfully downstaging to Milan criteria in more advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to compare post-LT outcomes in patients receiving locoregional therapies (LRT) before LT according to Milan criteria and University of California San Francisco downstaging (UCSF-DS) protocol and 'all-comers'. METHODS: This multicentre cohort study included patients who received any LRT before LT from Europe and Latin America (2000-2018). We excluded patients with alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) above 1,000 ng/ml. Competing risk regression analysis for HCC recurrence was conducted, estimating subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and corresponding 95% CIs. RESULTS: From 2,441 LT patients, 70.1% received LRT before LT (n = 1,711). Of these, 80.6% were within Milan, 12.0% within UCSF-DS, and 7.4% all-comers. Successful downstaging was achieved in 45.2% (CI 34.8-55.8) and 38.2% (CI 25.4-52.3) of the UCSF-DS group and all-comers, respectively. The risk of recurrence was higher for all-comers (SHR 6.01 [p <0.0001]) and not significantly higher for the UCSF-DS group (SHR 1.60 [p = 0.32]), compared with patients remaining within Milan. The all-comers presented more frequent features of aggressive HCC and higher tumour burden at explant. Among the UCSF-DS group, an AFP value of ≤20 ng/ml at listing was associated with lower recurrence (SHR 2.01 [p = 0.006]) and better survival. However, recurrence was still significantly high irrespective of AFP ≤20 ng/ml in all-comers. CONCLUSIONS: Patients within the UCSF-DS protocol at listing have similar post-transplant outcomes compared with those within Milan when successfully downstaged. Meanwhile, all-comers have a higher recurrence and inferior survival irrespective of response to LRT. Additionally, in the UCSF-DS group, an ALP of ≤20 ng/ml might be a novel tool to optimise selection of candidates for LT. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: This study was registered as part of an open public registry (NCT03775863). LAY SUMMARY: Patients with more extended HCC (within the UCSF-DS protocol) successfully downstaged to the conventional Milan criteria do not have a higher recurrence rate after LT compared with the group remaining in the Milan criteria from listing to transplantation. Moreover, in the UCSF-DS patient group, an ALP value equal to or below 20 ng/ml at listing might be a novel tool to further optimise selection of candidates for LT.

Regorafenib Efficacy After Sorafenib in Patients With Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Study.

Safety of regorafenib in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) has been recently demonstrated. We aimed to assess the survival benefit of regorafenib compared with best supportive care (BSC) in LT patients after sorafenib discontinuation. This observational multicenter retrospective study included LT patients with HCC recurrence who discontinued first-line sorafenib. Group 1 comprised regorafenib-treated patients, whereas the control group was selected among patients treated with BSC due to unavailability of second-line options at the time of sorafenib discontinuation and who were sorafenib-tolerant progressors (group 2). Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) of group 1 compared with group 2. Secondary endpoints were safety and OS of sequential treatment with sorafenib + regorafenib/BSC. Among 132 LT patients who discontinued sorafenib included in the study, 81 were sorafenib tolerant: 36 received regorafenib (group 1) and 45 (group 2) received BSC. Overall, 24 (67%) patients died in group 1 and 40 (89%) in group 2: the median OS was significantly longer in group 1 than in group 2 (13.1 versus 5.5 months; P < 0.01). Regorafenib treatment was an independent predictor of reduced mortality (hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16-0.89; P = 0.02). Median treatment duration with regorafenib was 7.0 (95% CI, 5.5-8.5) months; regorafenib dose was reduced in 22 (61%) patients for adverse events and discontinued for tumor progression in 93% (n = 28). The median OS calculated from sorafenib start was 28.8 months (95% CI, 17.6-40.1) in group 1 versus 15.3 months (95% CI, 8.8-21.7) in group 2 (P < 0.01). Regorafenib is an effective second-line treatment after sorafenib in patients with HCC recurrence after LT.

Trial eligibility in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Does it support clinical practice in underrepresented subgroups?

Although hepatocellular carcinoma is considered a highly lethal malignancy, recent therapeutic advances have been achieved during the last 10 years. This scenario resulted in an unprecedented improvement in survival for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, almost reaching 20-26 mo of overall survival after first-second line sequential treatment. The advent of the combination of atezolizumab with bevacizumab showed, for the first time, superiority over sorafenib with improvement in overall survival. However, first and second-line trials were correctly based on the premise that a strict selection of patients enhances the power to capture the positive effect of treatment by excluding competing risks for mortality such as liver failure, decompensated cirrhosis or other underlying medical conditions. As a result, the inclusion criteria used in clinical trials do not support the use of novel therapies in several real-world scenarios involving underrepresented subgroups, such as patients with unpreserved liver function, other comorbid conditions, a history of solid-organ transplantation, autoimmune disorders and those with a high risk of bleeding. The present text aims at discussing treatment strategies in these subgroups.

Comparison of different prognostic scores for patients with cirrhosis hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Viral infections have been described to increase the risk of decompensation in patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to determine the effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection on outcome of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and to compare the performance of different prognostic models for predicting mortality. PATIENTS: We performed a prospective cohort study including 2211 hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from April 15, 2020 through October 1, 2020 in 38 Hospitals from 11 Latin American countries. We registered clinical and laboratory parameters of patients with and without cirrhosis. All patients were followed until discharge or death. We evaluated the prognostic performance of different scoring systems to predict mortality in patients with cirrhosis using ROC curves. RESULTS: Overall, 4.6% (CI 3.7-5.6) subjects had cirrhosis (n = 96). Baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class was assessed: CTP-A (23%), CTP-B (45%) and CTP-C (32%); median MELD-Na score was 19 (IQR 14-25). Mortality was 47% in patients with cirrhosis and 16% in patients without cirrhosis (P < .0001). Cirrhosis was independently associated with death [OR 3.1 (CI 1.9-4.8); P < .0001], adjusted by age, gender, and body mass index >30. The areas under the ROC curves for performance evaluation in predicting 28-days mortality for Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C), North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease (NACSELD), CTP score and MELD-Na were 0.85, 0.75, 0.69, 0.67; respectively (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with elevated mortality in patients with cirrhosis. CLIF-C had better performance in predicting mortality than NACSELD, CTP and MELD-Na in patients with cirrhosis and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Clinicaltrials.gov:NCT04358380.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: impact of expansion criteria in a multicenter cohort study from a high waitlist mortality region.

This study aimed to compare liver transplantation (LT) outcomes and evaluate the potential rise in numbers of LT candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of different allocation policies in a high waitlist mortality region. Three policies were applied in two Latin American cohorts (1085 HCC transplanted patients and 917 listed patients for HCC): (i) Milan criteria with expansion according to UCSF downstaging (UCSF-DS), (ii) the AFP score, and (iii) restrictive policy or Double Eligibility Criteria (DEC; within Milan + AFP score ≤2). Increase in HCC patient numbers was evaluated in an Argentinian prospective validation set (INCUCAI; NCT03775863). Expansion criteria in policy A showed that UCSF-DS [28.4% (CI 12.8-56.2)] or "all-comers" [32.9% (CI 11.9-71.3)] had higher 5-year recurrence rates compared to Milan, with 10.9% increase in HCC patients for LT. The policy B showed lower recurrence rates for AFP scores ≤2 points, even expanding beyond Milan criteria, with a 3.3% increase. Patients within DEC had lower 5-year recurrence rates compared with those beyond DEC [13.3% (CI 10.1-17.3) vs 24.2% (CI 17.4-33.1; P = 0.0006], without significant HCC expansion. In conclusion, although the application of a stricter policy may optimize the selection process, this restrictive policy may lead to ethical concerns in organ allocation (NCT03775863).

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: Prognostic and predictive factors of survival in a Latin American cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) has a poor prognosis, and the adjusted effect of different treatments on post-recurrence survival (PRS) has not been well defined. This study aims to evaluate prognostic and predictive variables associated with PRS. METHODS: This Latin American multicenter retrospective cohort study included HCC patients who underwent LT between the years 2005-2018. We evaluated the effect of baseline characteristics at time of HCC recurrence diagnosis and PRS (Cox regression analysis). Early recurrences were those occurring within 12 months of LT. To evaluate the adjusted treatment effect for HCC recurrence, a propensity score matching analysis was performed to assess the probability of having received any specific treatment for recurrence. RESULTS: From a total of 1085 transplanted HCC patients, the cumulative incidence of recurrence was 16.6% (CI 13.5-20.3), with median time to recurrence of 13.0 months (IQR 6.0-26.0). Factors independently associated with PRS were early recurrence (47.6%), treatment with sorafenib and surgery/trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE). Patients who underwent any treatment presented "early recurrences" less frequently, and more extrahepatic metastasis. This unbalanced distribution was included in the propensity score matching, with correct calibration and discrimination (receiving operator curve of 0.81 [CI 0.72;0.88]). After matching, the adjusted effect on PRS for any treatment was HR of 0.2 (0.10;0.33); P < .0001, for sorafenib therapy HR of 0.4 (0.27;0.77); P = .003, and for surgery/TACE HR of 0.4 (0.18;0.78); P = .009. CONCLUSION: Although early recurrence was associated with worse outcome, even in this population, systemic or locoregional treatments were associated with better PRS.

Prospective Latin American cohort evaluating outcomes of patients with COVID-19 and abnormal liver tests on admission.

INTRODUCTION & OBJECTIVES: The independent effect of liver biochemistries as a prognostic factor in patients with COVID-19 has not been completely addressed. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of abnormal liver tests on admission of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. MATERIALS & METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study including 1611 hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from April 15, 2020 through July 31, 2020 in 38 different Hospitals from 11 Latin American countries. We registered clinical and laboratory parameters, including liver function tests, on admission and during hospitalization. All patients were followed until discharge or death. We fit multivariable logistic regression models, further post-estimation effect through margins and inverse probability weighting. RESULTS: Overall, 57.8% of the patients were male with a mean age of 52.3 years, 8.5% had chronic liver disease and 3.4% had cirrhosis. Abnormal liver tests on admission were present on 45.2% (CI 42.7-47.7) of the cohort (n = 726). Overall, 15.1% (CI 13.4-16.9) of patients died (n = 244). Patients with abnormal liver tests on admission presented higher mortality 18.7% (CI 15.9-21.7), compared to those with normal liver biochemistries 12.2% (CI 10.1-14.6); P < .0001). After excluding patients with history of chronic liver disease, abnormal liver tests on admission were independently associated with death [OR 1.5 (CI 1.1-2.0); P = 0.01], and severe COVID-19 (2.6 [2.0-3.3], P < .0001), both adjusted by age, gender, diabetes, pneumonia and body mass index >30. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of abnormal liver tests on admission is independently associated with mortality and severe COVID-19 in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection and may be used as surrogate marker of inflammation. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV: NCT04358380.