Patterns of Recovery in Cardiovascular Care after the COVID-19 Pandemic Surge.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease remains the number one cause of death globally. Patients with cardiovascular disease are at risk of poor outcomes from deferral of healthcare during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Little is known about recovery of cardiovascular hospitalizations or procedural volume following the COVID-19 surges. We sought to examine the cardiovascular diagnoses requiring healthcare utilization surrounding the first and second COVID-19 waves and characterize trends in return to pre-pandemic levels at a tertiary care center in Massachusetts. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using electronic health records and administrative claims data, we performed a retrospective analysis of patients undergoing cardiovascular procedures and admitted to inpatient cardiology services throughout the first two COVID surges. ICD-10 codes were used to categorize admissions. RESULTS: Patients who presented for care during the initial COVID-19 surge were younger, had higher comorbidity burden, and longer length-of-stay compared with pre- and post-surge. Marked declines in admissions in the first wave (to 29% of pre-surge levels) followed eventually by complete recovery were noted across all cardiac diagnoses, with smaller declines seen in the second wave. Cardiac procedural volume declined significantly during the initial surge but quickly rebounded post-surge, eventually eclipsing pre-COVID volume. CONCLUSIONS: There was a gradual but initially incomplete recovery to pre-surge levels of hospitalizations and procedures during the reopening phase, which eventually rebounded to meet or exceed pre-COVID-19 levels. To the extent that this reflects deferred or foregone essential care, it may adversely affect long-term cardiovascular outcomes. These results should inform planning for cardiovascular care delivery during future pandemic surges.

Development and validation of a pancreatic cancer risk model for the general population using electronic health records: An observational study.

AIM: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is often diagnosed at a late, incurable stage. We sought to determine whether individuals at high risk of developing PDAC could be identified early using routinely collected data. METHODS: Electronic health record (EHR) databases from two independent hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts, providing inpatient, outpatient, and emergency care, from 1979 through 2017, were used with case-control matching. PDAC cases were selected using International Classification of Diseases 9/10 codes and validated with tumour registries. A data-driven feature selection approach was used to develop neural networks and L2-regularised logistic regression (LR) models on training data (594 cases, 100,787 controls) and compared with a published model based on hand-selected diagnoses ('baseline'). Model performance was validated on an external database (408 cases, 160,185 controls). Three prediction lead times (180, 270 and 365 days) were considered. RESULTS: The LR model had the best performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.71 (confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.76) for the training set, and AUC 0.68 (CI: 0.65-0.71) for the validation set, 365 days before diagnosis. Data-driven feature selection improved results over 'baseline' (AUC = 0.55; CI: 0.52-0.58). The LR model flags 2692 (CI 2592-2791) of 156,485 as high risk, 365 days in advance, identifying 25 (CI: 16-36) cancer patients. Risk stratification showed that the high-risk group presented a cancer rate 3 to 5 times the prevalence in our data set. CONCLUSION: A simple EHR model, based on diagnoses, can identify high-risk individuals for PDAC up to one year in advance. This inexpensive, systematic approach may serve as the first sieve for selection of individuals for PDAC screening programs.

Tricuspid Regurgitation and Mortality in Patients With Transvenous Permanent Pacemaker Leads.

Estimates of the prevalence and importance of significant tricuspid regurgitation (STR) related to implantable device leads are based mainly on case reports, small observational studies, or mixed samples that include defibrillators. We sought to assess whether patients with permanent pacemaker (PPM) leads have an increased risk of STR and to determine mortality associated with PPM-related TR in a large longitudinal single-center cohort. We examined the prevalence of STR (defined as moderate-severe or ≥3+) among all echocardiograms performed from 2005 to 2011 excluding those with defibrillators. We then examined mortality risk according to the prevalence of PPM and STR after adjusting for cardiac co-morbidities, left ventricular systolic/diastolic function, and pulmonary artery hypertension. We screened 93,592 echocardiograms (1,245 with PPM) in 58,556 individual patients (634 with PPM). The prevalence of STR was higher in patients after PPM placement (mean age 79 ± 3 years; 54% men) compared with those without a PPM (adjusted odds ratio 2.32; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.54 to 3.49; p <0.0001). Among patients with a PPM lead, the presence of STR was associated with increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.40; 95% CI 1.04 to 2.11, p = 0.027, vs no STR). Compared with having neither a PPM lead nor STR, adjusted hazard ratios for death were 2.13 (95% CI 1.93 to 2.34) for STR but no PPM, 1.04 (0.89 to 1.22) for PPM without STR, and 1.55 (1.13 to 2.14) for PPM with STR. In conclusion, in a sample comprising >58,000 individual patients, PPM leads are associated with higher risk of STR after adjustment for left ventricular systolic/diastolic function and pulmonary artery hypertension; similarly to STR from other cardiac pathologies, PPM-related STR is associated with increased mortality.

Serum Ammonia is Associated With Transplant-free Survival in Hospitalized Patients With Acutely Decompensated Cirrhosis [corrected].

BACKGROUND: As ammonia metabolism is a complex multiorgan process, we sought to determine whether serum ammonia concentrations were associated with transplant-free survival in patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). METHODS: We studied 494 consecutive patients hospitalized with cirrhosis between April 2007 and September 2012 with venous ammonia measured on hospital admission. The primary outcome was transplant-free survival. RESULTS: Overall, rates of death or transplant within 30 and 90 days were 23.1% (n=114) and 37.7% (n=186), respectively. Forty-six patients (9.2%) underwent liver transplantation within 90 days. In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, ammonia concentration was independently associated with death or transplantation within 30 and 90 days after adjusting for model for end-stage liver disease, sodium, white blood cells, and number of ACLF organ failures; every doubling of ammonia was associated with respective hazard ratios of 1.22 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.38) and 1.21 (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.44) for 90- and 30-day transplant or mortality. Notably, after adjusting for ammonia, organ failures were not predictive of outcomes. In a Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients with admission ammonia concentrations >60 µmol/L had significantly lower 90-day transplant-free survival (P=0.0004). Patients with admission ammonia concentrations >60 µmol/L had higher 90- and 30-day risk of death or transplantation (45.2% vs. 31.2%, P=0.001; and 31.6% vs. 15.7%, P<0.0001, respectively). CONCLUSION: For patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis, an elevated serum ammonia concentration on admission is associated with reduced 90-day transplant-free survival after adjusting for established predictors.

A Quality Improvement Initiative Reduces 30-Day Rate of Readmission for Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Many hospitalized patients with cirrhosis are readmitted to the hospital within 30 days, particularly those with hepatic encephalopathy (HE). We performed a prospective study to assess the effects of a quality improvement protocol on readmission to a transplant center's liver unit within 30 days. METHODS: We studied the effects of a quality improvement program in 824 unique patients with decompensated cirrhosis or receiving liver transplants (mean Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, 17.7 ± 7.4) admitted to an inpatient hepatology unit from 2010 through 2013. The study had a year-long control period (626 admissions receiving usual care) and 2 intervention phases: a hand-held checklist phase (470 admissions) and an electronic phase that incorporated the checklist items into the electronic provider order entry system (624 admissions). The intervention phases included goal-directed lactulose therapy and rifaximin for overt HE, and prompts for antibiotic prophylaxis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. The primary endpoint was the difference in 30-day readmissions between the control and intervention phases. Trends in 30-day readmissions were compared with those of patients with decompensated cirrhosis admitted at another center. RESULTS: During the electronic phase, study subjects had 40% lower adjusted odds of 30-day readmission than during the control period. The slope of the decline in readmissions over time was significantly greater than for patients at the other center (P < .0001). The proportion of patients with greater than grade 2 HE and 30-day readmission was 48.9% (66 of 135) in the control period versus 26.0% (27 of 104) in the electronic phase (P = .0003). Treatment of HE with rifaximin and secondary prophylaxis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis with antibiotics (on discharge) were associated with lower adjusted odds of readmission (odds ratios, 0.39 and 0.40, respectively). The electronic phase was associated with 1.34 fewer hospital days for HE compared with the control period (P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: In a prospective study, a quality improvement initiative that included electronic decision support reduced readmissions of patients with cirrhosis to the hospital within 30 days.

Standard assessments of frailty are validated predictors of mortality in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.

UNLABELLED: The risk of morbidity and mortality for hospitalized patients with cirrhosis is high and incompletely captured by conventional indices. We sought to evaluate the predictive role of frailty in an observational cohort study of inpatients with decompensated cirrhosis between 2010 and 2013. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included discharge to a rehabilitation hospital, 30-day readmission, and length of stay. Frailty was assessed with three metrics: activities of daily living (ADL), the Braden Scale, and the Morse fall risk score. A predictive model was validated by randomly dividing the population into training and validation cohorts: 734 patients were admitted 1358 times in the study period. The overall 90-day mortality was 18.3%. The 30-day readmission rate was 26.6%, and the rate of discharge to a rehabilitation facility was 14.3%. Adjusting for sex, age, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, sodium, and Charlson index, the odds ratio for the effect of an ADL score of less than 12 of 15 on mortality is 1.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-3.20). A predictive model for 90-day mortality including ADL and Braden Scale yielded C statistics of 0.83 (95% CI 0.80-0.86) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.71-0.83) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Discharge to a rehabilitation hospital is predicted by both the ADL (<12) and Braden Scale (<16), with respective adjusted odds ratios of 3.78 (95% CI 1.97-7.29) and 6.23 (95% CI 2.53-15.4). Length of stay was associated with the Braden Scale (<16) (hazard ratio = 0.63, 95% CI 0.44-0.91). No frailty measure was associated with 30-day readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Readily available, standardized measures of frailty predict 90-day mortality, length of stay, and rehabilitation needs for hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.

Low likelihood of intracranial hemorrhage in patients with cirrhosis and altered mental status.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Given the myriad causes of altered mental status (AMS), patients with cirrhosis and hepatic encephalopathy often present a diagnostic dilemma. In light of the perceived bleeding tendency of patients with cirrhosis, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is often feared, so these patients frequently undergo non-contrast computed tomography (CT) of the head. However, little is known about the diagnostic yield of CT for patients with cirrhosis presenting with AMS. METHODS: We analyzed all unique admissions of patients with cirrhosis who underwent head CT from 2003 through 2013 (N = 462) at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston. By using blinded reviewers, we coded the indications and results of the CT scans separately and evaluated patient characteristics associated with acute findings. RESULTS: A higher proportion of patients who presented with falls or trauma, focal neurologic signs, or history of ICH were found to have ICH (13 of 146, 8.9%) than of patients who presented with AMS, headache, or fever (1 of 316, 0.3%; P < .0001). The odds ratio of ICH in patients with low-risk indications was 0.02 (95% confidence interval, 0.001-0.14). The number needed to scan (NNS) for each positive result from CT varied by indication: focal neurologic deficits (NNS = 9), fall/trauma (NNS = 20), and AMS (NNS = 293). There was no association between presence of new, acute ICH and platelet count, international normalized ratio, level of creatinine, or Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. CONCLUSIONS: Despite abnormal hemostatic indices, patients with cirrhosis presenting with AMS in the absence of focal neurologic deficits or trauma have a low likelihood of ICH.

The need for antibiotic stewardship and treatment standardization in the care of cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis - a retrospective cohort study examining the effect of ceftriaxone dosing.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a common, often fatal affliction for cirrhotic patients. Despite all clinical trials of ceftriaxone for SBP using 2g daily, it is often given at 1g daily. AIM: We evaluated survival after SBP as a function of ceftriaxone dosage. METHODS:   A retrospective cohort of all patients who received ceftriaxone for SBP (greater than 250 neutrophils in the ascites). RESULTS: As opposed to 1 gram, median survival is longer for patients receiving 2 grams (228 days vs. 102 days (p = 0.26) and one year survival is significantly higher (p = 0.0034).  After adjusting for baseline Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, however, this difference was no longer significant.  Similarly, there was a significantly shorter length of intensive care for patients receiving 2 g (0.59 ± 1.78 days vs. 3.26 ± 6.9, p = 0.034), odds ratio 0.11 (95% CI 0.02 - 0.65). This difference, too, was no longer significant after controlling for the MELD score - odds ratio 0.21 (95% CI 0.04 - 1.07). Additionally, 70% of patients received at least one additional antibiotic; over 25 different medications were used in various combinations. CONCLUSIONS:   Patients receiving 2 g of ceftriaxone may require fewer intensive care days and may enjoy an improved survival compared to those receiving 1 g daily. The complexity of antibiotic regimens to which cirrhotic patients are exposed must be studied further and rationalized.  We recommend fastidious antibiotic stewardship for patients with cirrhosis. Efforts should be made to craft local standards for the treatment of SBP that include appropriate antibiotic selection and dose.

Derivation and validation of a 30-day heart failure readmission model.

In 2006, there were >1 million hospital admissions for heart failure (HF), and the estimated cost to the United States in 2009 was >$37.2 billion. Better models to target aggressive therapy to patients at the highest risk for readmission are clearly needed. We studied 3,413 consecutive admissions for HF based on discharge diagnosis codes from October 2007 to August 2011 from a single academic center. We randomly generated derivation and validation sets in a 3:1 ratio. We used generalized estimating equations to develop our models, accounting for repeated hospitalizations and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test to examine model calibration. The 30-day readmission rate was 24.2% in the derivation set. Of 25 candidate variables, the best fitting model included creatinine, troponin, hematocrit, and hyponatremia at discharge; race; zip code of residence; discharge hour; and number of hospitalizations in the previous year. Insignificant variables included intravenous diuretic use on day of discharge, discharge service, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, age, and gender. The risk of 30-day readmission increased with increasing decile of predicted risk in both the validation and derivation cohorts. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 0.69 in the derivation set and 0.66 in the validation set. In conclusion, we derived and validated a simple model relating discharge-specific characteristics at risk of 30-day readmission. Application of this approach may facilitate targeted intervention to reduce the burden of rehospitalization in patients with HF, but our results suggest that the best readmission models may require incorporation of both clinical and local system factors for optimal prediction.

Predictors of negative intraoperative findings at emergent laparotomy in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Emergent surgery in the setting of decompensated cirrhosis is highly morbid. We sought to determine the clinical factors associated with negative intraoperative findings at emergent laparotomy. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of consecutive inpatients with a diagnosis of cirrhosis (ICD-9 571) admitted to the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Boston, MA) who underwent emergent, nonhepatic, abdominal surgery between May 6, 2005 and September 3, 2012. RESULTS: Eighty-six patients with cirrhosis were included with a mean model for end-stage liver disease score of 21.3 ± 7.95 and a 90-day mortality rate of 39.5%. Twelve (16.2%) patients had negative laparotomies. Negative intraoperative findings were independently associated with (1) paracentesis prior to a preoperative diagnosis of perforated viscus (P = 0.006), (2) development of an indication for emergent surgery after 24 h into hospital admission for another reason (P = 0.020), and (3) a preoperative diagnosis of bowel ischemia (P = 0.005), with odds ratios of 10.1 (CI 1.92-66.83), 5.80 (CI 1.32-33.39), and 11.1 (CI 2.08-77.4), respectively. Free air on computed tomography (CT) imaging was found in 64.3% (9/14) of patients who had a paracentesis within the preceding 48 h compared to 10.1% (7/72) among patients who did not undergo a paracentesis (P < 0.001). Only 45% of patients with free air following a paracentesis had positive findings at laparotomy compared to 100% in those without a preceding paracentesis (P = 0.038). Negative laparotomy was independently predictive of in-hospital mortality (OR 4.7; P = 0.034). CONCLUSION: The possibility of a negative laparotomy is suggested by preoperative clinical factors. In particular, free air following a paracentesis does not necessarily indicate that operative intervention is required. Consideration of close observation before laparotomy in these patients is reasonable.