High organic carbon content constricts the potential for stable organic carbon accrual in mineral agricultural soils in Finland.

Sequestering carbon into agricultural soils is considered as a means of mitigating climate change. We used agronomic soil test results representing c. 95% of the farmed land area in Finland to estimate the potential of the uppermost 15 cm soil layer of mineral agricultural soils to sequester organic carbon (OC) and to contribute to the mitigation of climate change. The estimation of the maximum capacity of mineral matter to protect OC in stable mineral-associated form was based on the theory that clay and fine-sized (fines = clay + silt) particles have a limited capacity to protect OC. In addition, we used the clay/OC and fines/OC ratios to identify areas with a risk of erosion and reduced productivity, thus indicating priority areas potentially benefitting from the increased soil OC contents. We found that 32-40% of the mineral agricultural soils in Finland have the potential to further accumulate mineral-associated OC (MOC), while in the majority of soils, the current OC stock in the uppermost 15 cm exceeded the capacity of mineral matter to protect OC. The nationwide soil OC sequestration potential of the uppermost 15 cm in mineral agricultural soils ranged between 0.21 and 0.26 Tg, which corresponds to less than 2% of annual greenhouse gas emissions in Finland. The fields with the highest potential for SOC accrual were found in the southern and southwestern parts of the country, including some of the most intensively cultivated high-clay soils. Although the nationwide potential for additional OC sequestration was estimated to be relatively small, the current OC storage in Finnish arable mineral soils (0-15 cm) is large, 128 Tg. Farming practices enabling maximum OC input into the soil play an important role as a tool for mitigating the loss of carbon from high-OC soils in the changing climate. Furthermore, especially in high-clay areas with potential for MOC accrual, efforts to increase soil OC could help improve soil structural stability and therefore reduce erosion and the loss of nutrients to the aquatic environments.

Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea.

This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.

Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea.

The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.