Monitoring organ donor rates: a predictive model based on routinely available data in France applied to the year 2002.

Temporal trends in organ donor harvesting rates are subject to variability. It is important to detect variations as early as possible using current data. We developed a predictive model for monitoring harvesting activity using the number of donors harvested monthly between 1996 and 2001. A Poisson model was used to predict the number of donors harvested each month along with their confidence intervals. This model also updates, on a monthly basis, the predicted number of donors for the current year. During 2002, the number of donors observed each month followed the predicted monthly variations, but a significant increase was observed in March and May. These models can be used by transplantation agencies for monitoring purposes and for the evaluation of organ donation programmes.

[The French national waiting list for keratoplasty created in 1999: patient registration, indications, characteristics, and turnover]. / Bilan de la liste nationale d'attente de greffe de cornée française créée en 1999: taux d'inscription, flux, indications et caractéristiques des malades.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the French waiting list and the indications of registered patients, to compare the rates of registration, graft, and procurement between French regions. METHODS: In France, each patient with an indication for penetrating keratoplasty should be registered on the waiting list with his or her clinical characteristics. Those registered during 2000 and 2001 were included in the study. Data on transplantation activity from the waiting list were compared to data collected by a questionnaire on graft and procurement activities completed each year by medical teams. RESULTS: In 2000 and 2001, 6093 and 5505 waiting patients, respectively, were registered. For the same years, 3984 and 3457 keratoplasties were declared for the patients registered, but the questionnaires reported 4514 and 4388 grafts, respectively. The national registration rate was 96 per million population (pmp). The extreme values between regions ranged from 53 to 143 pmp. There was a significant correlation between regional procurement and transplantation rates (r=0.75, p=0.001) but not for registration and procurement rates, and not for registration and transplantation rates. The national registration rate was 27 pmp for pseudophakic and aphakic corneal edema, with extreme values of 12-64 pmp. The national registration rate was 24 pmp for keratoconus (11-37 pmp). A high patient turnover was observed between regions. Among the 11,598 patients registered, the most common indications were pseudophakic and aphakic corneal edema (27.7%), keratoconus (25.3%), and Fuchs'endothelial dystrophy (9.1%). Mean recipient age was 57+/-22 years (0-103 years). Among these patients, 14.1% had already received transplants at least once for the same eye (7.8% for keratoconus, 14.3% for pseudophakic and aphakic corneal edema, and 6.1% for Fuchs'dystrophy). DISCUSSION: Ophthalmologists will be able to register their patients directly on the waiting list, which will improve data quality for transplantation notification. Regional policies should be developed to decrease the inequalities of graft shortages between regions.

[Geographic variations in access to heart transplantation in France]. / Variations géographiques de l'accès à la greffe cardiaque en France.

This study was undertaken to determine whether there were regional variations in the access to the national waiting list for cardiac transplantation and in access to cardiac transplantation itself in France. The incidence of inscription on the waiting list for transplantation was calculated for new candidates living in each region between 1998 and 2000, indicating the level of access to the waiting list. The average interval before transplantation between 1995 and 2000 was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The regional lack of transplant organs was estimated by the ratio of the difference between patients inscribed on the waiting list and those operated, over the number of patients operated. The overall national incidence of inscription of the waiting list for cardiac transplantation was 8 new patients per year per million inhabitants with a range of 1.7 in Corsica to 12.1 in Lorraine. The regional incidence was lower than the national reference in 5 regions in higher in 4 regions. There was a strong attraction of patients to the Ile-de-France, Pays de la Loire and Rhone-Alpes regions. The average waiting time for transplantation in France was 3.7 months and ranged from 1.2 months in Brittany to 15.4 months in Aquitaine (p < 0.001). The degree of regional lack of transplant organs was significantly and positively correlated with the average waiting time for transplantation. The results of this study show that there are regional differences in the incidence of inscription on the waiting list for cardiac transplantation in France and a significant variation in waiting times for cardiac transplantation, and therefore, in access to cardiac transplantation.