A Model Based on Noninvasive Markers Predicts Very Low Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk After Viral Response in Hepatitis C Virus-Advanced Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and advanced fibrosis remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sustained viral response (SVR) and need lifelong surveillance. Because HCC risk is not homogenous and may decrease with fibrosis regression, we aimed to identify patients with low HCC risk based on the prediction of noninvasive markers and its changes after SVR. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This is a multicenter cohort study, including patients with HCV and compensated advanced fibrosis that achieved SVR after direct antivirals. Clinical and transient elastography (TE) data were registered at baseline, 1 year, and 3 years after the end of treatment (EOT). All patients underwent liver ultrasound scan every 6 months. Patients with clinical evaluation 1 year after EOT were eligible. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed, and predictive models were constructed. HCC occurrence rates were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier. Nine hundred and ninety-three patients were eligible (56% male; 44% female; median age 62 years), 35 developed HCC (3.9%), and the median follow-up was 45 months (range 13-53). Baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (HR 1.040; 95% CI 1.017-1.064), serum albumin (HR 0.400; 95% CI 0.174-0.923), 1-year DeltaLSM (HR 0.993; 95% CI 0.987-0.998), and 1-year FIB-4 score (HR 1.095; 95% CI 1.046-1.146) were independent factors associated with HCC. The TE-based HCC risk model predicted 0% of HCC occurrence at 3 years in patients with score 0 (baseline LSM ≤ 17.3 kPa, albumin >4.2 g/dL, and 1-year DeltaLSM > 25.5%) versus 5.2% in patients with score 1-3 (Harrell's C 0.779; log-rank 0.002). An alternative model with FIB-4 similarly predicted HCC risk. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of baseline and dynamic changes in noninvasive markers may help to identify patients with a very low risk of HCC development after SVR.

[Therapeutic decisions in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma and patterns of sorafenib use. Results of the international observational GIDEON trial in Spain]. / Decisiones terapéuticas en el tratamiento del carcinoma hepatocelular y patrones de uso de sorafenib. Resultados del estudio internacional observacional GIDEON en España.

INTRODUCTION: GIDEON is a non-interventional, prospective, international study that evaluated the safety of sorafenib in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in daily clinical practice, including Child-Pugh B patients. OBJECTIVES: To analyze data collected in Spain on the safety and efficacy of sorafenib and treatment patterns. METHODS: Data were collected during follow-up on demographic and disease characteristics, the initial dose used, treatment-emergent adverse events (AEs) and dose modifications. Overall survival was evaluated, as well as time to disease progression. Efficacy and safety were analyzed according to the Child-Pugh classification and the initial dose. RESULTS: We included 143 patients from 19 Spanish hospitals. A total of 24.5% of the patients were Child-Pugh B. An initial dose of 400 mg/12 h was used in 90.9% of patients. In Child-Pugh A patients, dose modifications occurred more frequently and the treatment duration was longer. The incidence of AEs and drug-related AEs were similar in Child-Pugh A and B patients, although serious AEs were more frequent in Child-Pugh B patients. The most common AEs were diarrhea, fatigue and hand-foot skin reactions. The median overall survival was 384 days and was higher in Child-Pugh A patients (593 vs. 211 days in Child-Pugh B). The median time to disease progression was 177 days, similar in both subgroups. CONCLUSION: The safety profile of sorafenib in Spanish patients with unresectable HCC is independent of liver function. Child-Pugh status does not seem to influence the approach to sorafenib dosage or time to progression but does seem to be a strong prognostic factor for survival.