Factors affecting vaccination demand in Indonesia: a secondary analysis and multimethods national assessment.

OBJECTIVES: Vaccine hesitancy remains a major barrier to immunisation coverage worldwide. We explored influence of hesitancy on coverage and factors contributing to vaccine uptake during a national measles-rubella (MR) campaign in Indonesia. DESIGN: Secondary analyses of qualitative and quantitative data sets from existing cross-sectional studies conducted during and around the campaign. METHODS: Quantitative data used in this assessment included daily coverage reports generated by health workers, district risk profiles that indicate precampaign immunisation programme performance, and reports of campaign cessation due to vaccine hesitancy. We used t-test and χ2 tests for associations. The qualitative assessment employed three parallel national and regional studies. Deductive thematic analysis examined factors for acceptance among caregivers, health providers and programme managers. RESULTS: Coverage data were reported from 6462 health facilities across 395 districts from 1 August to 31 December 2018. The average district coverage was 73%, with wide variation between districts (2%-100%). One-third of districts fell below 70% coverage thresholds. Sixty-two of 395 (16%) districts paused the campaign due to hesitancy. Coverage among districts that never paused campaign activities due to hesitancy was significantly higher than rates for districts ever-pausing the campaign (81% vs 42%; p<0.001). Precampaign adequacy of district immunisation programmes did not explain coverage gaps (p=0.210). Qualitative analysis identified acceptance enablers including using digital health monitoring and feedback systems, increasing caregiver knowledge and awareness, making immunisation social norm, effective cross-sectoral collaboration, conducive service environment and positive experiences for mothers and children. Barriers included misinformation diffusion on social media, halal-haram issues, lack of healthcare provider knowledge, negative family influences and traditions, previous poor experiences and misinformation on adverse events. CONCLUSION: Barriers to vaccine uptake contributed to coverage gaps during national MR campaign in Indonesia. A range of supply-related and demand-related strategies were identified to address hesitancy contributors. Advancing a portfolio of tailored multilevel interventions will be critical to enhance vaccine acceptance.

Alarmingly High HIV Prevalence Among Adolescent and Young Men Who have Sex with Men (MSM) in Urban Indonesia.

Indonesia's HIV epidemic is concentrated among key populations. While prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) is high, transmission among young MSM (15-24-years-old) remains poorly understood. We conducted a respondent driven sampling survey of 211 young MSM in urban Bandung, Indonesia in 2018-2019 to estimate HIV prevalence and associated risk factors. Thirty percent of young MSM were HIV antibody positive. This is nearly 100-fold greater than Indonesia's population prevalence and sevenfold higher than average estimates for young MSM across Asia and the Pacific Region. Individual risk factors associated with HIV infection were being 20-24 years old, having a steady partner and preferring the receptive position during sex. Issues of stigma, discrimination and social exclusion were common. Few young MSM who were open with friends and family members about their sexual identity. Among those that were, close to half reported experiencing feelings of aversion from these groups. Wider structural factors that reduce social tolerance, restrict the rights of young MSM and compel concealment of sexual identity are likely to fuel high-risk behaviors and limit access to essential testing care and support services including pre-exposure prophylaxis which is not yet widely available. Urgent health, social, legal and political actions are required to respond to these factors and reduce the disproportionate contribution of young MSM to Indonesia's HIV epidemic.

The UN Commission on Life Saving Commodities 3 years on: global progress update and results of a multicountry assessment.

BACKGROUND: In September, 2012, the UN Commission on Life Saving Commodities (UNCoLSC) outlined a plan to expand availability and access to 13 life saving commodities. We profile global and country progress against these recommendations between 2012 and 2015. METHODS: For 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa that were off-track to achieve the Millennium Development Goals for maternal and child survival, we reviewed key documents and reference data, and conducted interviews with ministry staff and partners to assess the status of the UNCoLSC recommendations. The RMNCH fund provided short-term catalytic financing to support country plans to advance the commodity agenda, with activities coded by UNCoLSC recommendation. Our network of technical resource teams identified, addressed, and monitored progress against cross-cutting commodity-related challenges that needed coordinated global action. FINDINGS: In 2014 and 2015, child and maternal health commodities had fewer bottlenecks than reproductive and neonatal commodities. Common bottlenecks included regulatory challenges (ten of 12 countries); poor quality assurance (11 of 12 countries); insufficient staff training (more than half of facilities on average); and weak supply chains systems (11 of 12 countries), with stock-outs of priority commodities in about 40% of facilities on average. The RMNCH fund committed US$175·7 million to 19 countries to support strategies addressing crucial gaps. $68·2 million (39·0%) of the funds supported systems-strengthening interventions with the remainder split across reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health. Health worker training ($88·6 million, 50·4%), supply chain ($53·3 million, 30·0%), and demand generation ($21·1 million, 12·0%) were the major topics of focus. All priority commodities are now listed in the WHO Essential Medicines List; appropriate price reductions were secured; quality manufacturing was improved; a fast-track registration mechanism for prequalified products was established; and methods were developed for advocacy, quantification, demand generation, supply chain, and provider training. Slower progress was evident around regulatory harmonisation and quality assurance. INTERPRETATION: Much work is needed to achieve full implementation of the UNCoLSC recommendations. Coordinated efforts to secure price reductions beyond the 13 commodities and improve regulatory efficiency, quality, and supply chains are still needed alongside broader dissemination of work products. FUNDING: Governments of Norway (NORAD) and the UK (DFID).

The effect of an integrated multisector model for achieving the Millennium Development Goals and improving child survival in rural sub-Saharan Africa: a non-randomised controlled assessment.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneously addressing multiple Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) has the potential to complement essential health interventions to accelerate gains in child survival. The Millennium Villages project is an integrated multisector approach to rural development operating across diverse sub-Saharan African sites. Our aim was to assess the effects of the project on MDG-related outcomes including child mortality 3 years after implementation and compare these changes to local comparison data. METHODS: Village sites averaging 35,000 people were selected from rural areas across diverse agroecological zones with high baseline levels of poverty and undernutrition. Starting in 2006, simultaneous investments were made in agriculture, the environment, business development, education, infrastructure, and health in partnership with communities and local governments at an annual projected cost of US$120 per person. We assessed MDG-related progress by monitoring changes 3 years after implementation across Millenium Village sites in nine countries. The primary outcome was the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years of age. To assess plausibility and attribution, we compared changes to reference data gathered from matched randomly selected comparison sites for the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years of age. Analyses were done on a per-protocol basis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01125618. FINDINGS: Baseline levels of MDG-related spending averaged $27 per head, increasing to $116 by year 3 of which $25 was spent on health. After 3 years, reductions in poverty, food insecurity, stunting, and malaria parasitaemia were reported across nine Millennium Village sites. Access to improved water and sanitation increased, along with coverage for many maternal-child health interventions. Mortality rates in children younger than 5 years of age decreased by 22% in Millennium Village sites relative to baseline (absolute decrease 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths, p=0·015) and 32% relative to matched comparison sites (30 deaths per 1000 livebirths, p=0·033). INTERPRETATION: An integrated multisector approach for addressing the MDGs can produce rapid declines in child mortality in the first 3 years of a long-term effort in rural sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: UN Human Security Trust Fund, the Lenfest Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Becton Dickinson.

A review of global progress toward the Millennium Development Goal 1 Hunger Target.

BACKGROUND: The hunger component of the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG) aims to reduce the proportion of people who suffer from hunger by half between 1990 and 2015. In low- and middle-income countries, progress has been mixed, with approximately 925 million people hungry and 125 million and 195 million children underweight and stunted, respectively. OBJECTIVE: To assess global progress on the hunger component of MDG1 and evaluate the success of interventions and country programs in reducing undernutrition. METHODS: We review global progress on the hunger component of MDG1, examining experience from 40 community-based programs as well as national efforts to move interventions to scale drawn from the published and gray literature, alongside personal interviews with representatives of governments and development agencies. RESULTS: Based on this review, most strategies being implemented and scaled are focusing on treatment of malnutrition and rooted within the health sector. While critical, these programs generally address disease-related effects and emphasize the immediate determinants of undernutrition. Other major strategies to tackle undernutrition rely on the production of staple grains within the agriculture sector. These programs address hunger, as opposed to improving the quality of diets within communities. Strategies that adopt multisectoral programming as crucial to address longer-term determinants of undernutrition, such as poverty, gender equality, and functioning food and health systems, remain underdeveloped and under-researched. CONCLUSIONS: This review suggests that accelerating progress toward the MDG1 targets is less about the development of novel innovations and new technologies and more about putting what is already known into practice. Success will hinge on linking clear policies with effective delivery systems in working towards an evidence-based and contextually relevant multisectoral package of interventions that can rapidly be taken to scale.

Multisector intervention to accelerate reductions in child stunting: an observational study from 9 sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, ~ 40% of children <5 y old are stunted, with levels that have remained largely unchanged over the past 2 decades. Although the complex determinants of undernutrition are well recognized, few studies have evaluated strategies that combine nutrition-specific, health-based approaches with food system- and livelihood-based interventions. OBJECTIVE: We examined changes in childhood stunting and its determinants after 3 y of exposure to an integrated, multisector intervention and compared these changes with national trends. DESIGN: A prospective observational trial was conducted across rural sites in 9 sub-Saharan African countries with baseline levels of childhood stunting >20%. A stratified random sample of households and resident children <2 y old from villages exposed to the program were enrolled in the study. Main outcome measures included principal determinants of undernutrition and childhood stunting, which was defined as a height-for-age z score less than -2. National trends in stunting were generated from demographic and health surveys. RESULTS: Three years after the start of the program in 2005-2006, consistent improvements were observed in household food security and diet diversity, whereas coverage with child care and disease-control interventions improved for most outcomes. The prevalence of stunting in children <2 y old at year 3 of the program (2008-2009) was 43% lower (adjusted OR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.38, 0.83) than at baseline. The average national stunting prevalence for the countries included in the study had remained largely unchanged over the past 2 decades. CONCLUSION: These findings provide encouraging evidence that a package of multisector interventions has the potential to produce reductions in childhood stunting.

Economic evaluation of a combined microfinance and gender training intervention for the prevention of intimate partner violence in rural South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: Assess the cost-effectiveness of an intervention combining microfinance with gender and HIV training for the prevention of intimate partner violence (IPV) in South Africa. METHODS: We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a cluster-randomized trial. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of the intervention in both the trial and initial scale-up phase. RESULTS: We estimated the cost per DALY gained as US$7688 for the trial phase and US$2307 for the initial scale-up. The findings were sensitive to the statistical uncertainty in effect estimates but otherwise robust to other key assumptions employed in the analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that this combined economic and health intervention was cost-effective in its trial phase and highly cost-effective in scale-up. These estimates are probably conservative, as they do not include the health and development benefits of the intervention beyond IPV reduction.

Does accessibility to antiretroviral care improve after down-referral of patients from hospitals to health centres in rural South Africa?

We conducted an evaluation of healthcare accessibility among patients taking antiretroviral treatment (ART) after they were 'down-referred' from hospital-based programmes to primary healthcare (PHC) centres in a rural South African setting. A cross-sectional design was used to study 109 PHC users compared to a randomly selected control group of 220 hospital-based users. Both groups were matched for a minimum duration on ART of six months. Using a comprehensive healthcare-accessibility framework, the participants were asked about availability, affordability and acceptability of their ART care in structured exit interviews that were linked to their ART-clinic record reviews. Unadjusted and adjusted regression models were used. Down-referral was associated with reduced transportation and meal costs (p = 0.001) and travel time to an ART facility (p =0.043). The down-referred users were less likely to complain of long queues (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.06; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.01-0.29), were more likely to feel respected by health providers (AOR 4.43; 95% CI: 1.07-18.02), perceived lower stigma (AOR 0.25; 95% CI: 0.07-0.91), and showed a higher level of ART adherence (AOR 8.71; 95% CI: 1.16-65.22) than the hospital-based users. However, the down-referred users preferred to consult with doctors rather than nurses (AOR 3.43; 95% CI: 1.22-9.55) and they were more likely to visit private physicians (AOR 7.09; 95% CI: 3.86-13.04) and practice self-care (AOR 4.91; 95% CI: 2.37-10.17), resulting in increased health-related expenditure (p = 0.001). Therefore, the results indicate both gains and losses in ART care for the patients, and suggest that down-referred patients save time and money, feel more respected, perceive lower stigma and show better adherence levels. However, unintended consequences include increased costs of using private physicians and self-care, highlighting the need to further promote the potential gains of down-referral interventions in resource-poor settings.

High rates of AIDS-related mortality among older adults in rural Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Health challenges faced by older people in developing countries are often neglected amidst a wide range of competing priorities. This is evident in the HIV field where the upper age limit for reporting HIV prevalence remains 49 years. However, the long latency period for HIV infection, and the fact that older people continue to be sexually active, suggests that HIV and AIDS are likely to affect older people. To better understand this, we studied mortality due to AIDS in people aged 50 and older in an area of rural Kenya with high rates of HIV infection. METHODS: A community health worker-administered verbal autopsy system was introduced in Nyanza Province, encompassing 63,500 people. Algorithms were used to determine cause of death. RESULTS: A total of 1228 deaths were recorded during the study period; 368 deaths occurred in people aged 50 years and older. AIDS was the single most common cause of death, causing 27% of all deaths. AIDS continued to be the main cause of death up to age 70 years, causing 34% of deaths in people aged 50-59 years and 23% of deaths in people aged 60-69 years. CONCLUSIONS: AIDS remains the principle cause of death among older people in Nyanza Province in western Kenya up until the age of 70 years. Greater efforts are needed to integrate older people into the HIV response and to better understand the specific vulnerabilities and challenges faced by this group.

Characteristics of sexual partnerships, not just of individuals, are associated with condom use and recent HIV infection in rural South Africa.

Characteristics of sexual partnerships, as well as those of the individuals involved, might influence the use of condoms and risk of HIV transmission. We set out to identify characteristics of non-spousal sexual partnerships associated with condom use at last sex in the previous year and HIV infection in the previous three years among sexually active young people in rural South Africa. We conducted an analysis of follow-up data (collected in 2004) from a cohort of 14-35-year old men and women recruited to a cluster-randomised trial. Data on 1647 non-spousal sexual partnerships during the previous year were reported in 2004 and analysed alongside new HIV infections over the previous three years among 762 individuals who were HIV-negative in 2001. Structured interviews elicited information on sexual behaviour. HIV serostatus was assessed through oral-fluid ELISA. Condom use at last sex was reported for 615/1647 non-spousal sexual partnerships (37.3%) and was more commonly reported by individuals who were younger, more educated and aware of their HIV status. Condom use was more common in casual partnerships, those where the male partner was younger, where sex was less frequent and where the respondent believed the partner to have other sexual contacts. New HIV infection in the last three years was identified for 87/762 individuals (11.4%) and was more common among females and those out of school. Infection risk was associated with the age of the partners and was less common among individuals reporting less frequent intercourse in the previous year. Characteristics of sexual partnerships, as well as those of individuals, are important determinants of condom use and risk of HIV infection. Male characteristics may be particularly important because of their greater capacity to make decisions about HIV prevention. Established non-spousal sexual partnerships are an increasingly important context for HIV transmission in this setting.

Socioeconomic disparities in access to HIV/AIDS treatment programs in resource-limited settings.

This study employs data from rural South Africa to determine whether there were socioeconomic differences in the profile of HIV-infected persons living in the community and HIV-infected patients presenting for hospital-based outpatient HIV/AIDS care and related services. There were 776 HIV-infected persons aged 18-35 years in Limpopo Province, South Africa who were included in the study, including 534 consecutive patients who presented for care at a hospital-based outpatient HIV clinic, and 242 persons living in the community. Persons seen in clinic had a higher overall socioeconomic profile compared to the community sample. They were more likely to have completed matric or tertiary education (P=0.04), less likely to be unemployed (P<0.001), and more likely to live in households with access to a private tap water supply (P<0.001). These differences persisted after multivariable adjustment. Our findings demonstrate that important socioeconomic differences in uptake of hospital-based HIV/AIDS care were identified among HIV-infected adults living in a rural region of South Africa. This suggests an important limitation in hospital-based HIV/AIDS care and underscores the need to monitor the equity implications of highly active antiretroviral therapy scale-up in resource-limited settings.

"They have opened our mouths": increasing women's skills and motivation for sexual communication with young people in rural South Africa.

Communication between parents and young people about sex has been identified as a positive influence on young people's sexual behavior. This article presents findings from South Africa, where a social intervention to reduce levels of HIV and intimate partner violence actively promoted sexual communication between adults and young people. We assessed this component of the program using quantitative and qualitative methods, collecting data through surveys, direct observation, interviews, and focus group discussions. Women participating in intervention activities reported sexual communication with children significantly more often than matched women in the control group (80.3% vs. 49.4%, adjusted risk ratio 1.59 (1.31-1.93). The content of communication with young people also appears to have shifted from vague admonitions about the dangers of sex to concrete messages about reducing risks. The congruence between these findings and existing literature on parent-child sexual communication suggests that conceptual frameworks and programs from developed settings can be adapted effectively for resource-poor contexts.

Can social capital be intentionally generated? a randomized trial from rural South Africa.

While much descriptive research has documented positive associations between social capital and a range of economic, social and health outcomes, there have been few intervention studies to assess whether social capital can be intentionally generated. We conducted an intervention in rural South Africa that combined group-based microfinance with participatory gender and HIV training in an attempt to catalyze changes in solidarity, reciprocity and social group membership as a means to reduce women's vulnerability to intimate partner violence and HIV. A cluster randomized trial was used to assess intervention effects among eight study villages. In this paper, we examined effects on structural and cognitive social capital among 845 participants and age and wealth matched women from households in comparison villages. This was supported by a diverse portfolio of qualitative research. After two years, adjusted effect estimates indicated higher levels of structural and cognitive social capital in the intervention group than the comparison group, although confidence intervals were wide. Qualitative research illustrated the ways in which economic and social gains enhanced participation in social groups, and the positive and negative dynamics that emerged within the program. There were numerous instances where individuals and village loan centres worked to address community concerns, both working through existing social networks, and through the establishment of new partnerships with local leadership structures, police, the health sector and NGOs. This is among the first experimental trials suggesting that social capital can be exogenously strengthened. The implications for community interventions in public health are further explored.

A combined microfinance and training intervention can reduce HIV risk behaviour in young female participants.

OBJECTIVE: To assess effects of a combined microfinance and training intervention on HIV risk behavior among young female participants in rural South Africa. DESIGN: : Secondary analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from a cluster randomized trial, the Intervention with Microfinance for AIDS and Gender Equity study. METHODS: Eight villages were pair-matched and randomly allocated to receive the intervention. At baseline and after 2 years, HIV risk behavior was assessed among female participants aged 14-35 years. Their responses were compared with women of the same age and poverty group from control villages. Intervention effects were calculated using adjusted risk ratios employing village level summaries. Qualitative data collected during the study explored participants' responses to the intervention including HIV risk behavior. RESULTS: After 2 years of follow-up, when compared with controls, young participants had higher levels of HIV-related communication (adjusted risk ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.01-2.12), were more likely to have accessed voluntary counseling and testing (adjusted risk ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.06-2.56), and less likely to have had unprotected sex at last intercourse with a nonspousal partner (adjusted risk ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.60-0.96). Qualitative data suggest a greater acceptance of intrahousehold communication about HIV and sexuality. Although women noted challenges associated with acceptance of condoms by men, increased confidence and skills associated with participation in the intervention supported their introduction in sexual relationships. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to impacts on economic well being, women's empowerment and intimate partner violence, interventions addressing the economic and social vulnerability of women may contribute to reductions in HIV risk behavior.

Is social capital associated with HIV risk in rural South Africa?

The role of social capital in promoting health is now widely debated within international public health. In relation to HIV, the results of previous observational and cross-sectional studies have been mixed. In some settings it has been suggested that high levels of social capital and community cohesion might be protective and facilitate more effective collective responses to the epidemic. In others, group membership has been a risk factor for HIV infection. There have been few attempts to strengthen social capital, particularly in developing countries, and examine its effect on vulnerability to HIV. Employing data from an intervention study, we examined associations between social capital and HIV risk among 1063 14 to 35-year-old male and female residents of 750 poor households from 8 villages in rural Limpopo province, South Africa. We assessed cognitive social capital (CSC) and structural social capital (SSC) separately, and examined associations with numerous aspects of HIV-related psycho-social attributes, risk behavior, prevalence and incidence. Among males, after adjusting for potential confounders, residing in households with greater levels of CSC was linked to lower HIV prevalence and higher levels of condom use. Among females, similar patterns of relationships with CSC were observed. However, while greater SSC was associated with protective psychosocial attributes and risk behavior, it was also associated with higher rates of HIV infection. This work underscores the complex and nuanced relationship between social capital and HIV risk in a rural African context. We suggest that not all social capital is protective or health promotive, and that getting the balance right is critical to informing HIV prevention efforts.

Systematic review exploring time trends in the association between educational attainment and risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the evidence that the association between educational attainment and risk of HIV infection is changing over time in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN AND METHODS: Systematic review of published peer-reviewed articles. Articles were identified that reported original data comparing individually measured educational attainment and HIV status among at least 300 individuals representative of the general population of countries or regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Statistical analyses were required to adjust for potential confounders but not over-adjust for variables on the causal pathway. RESULTS: Approximately 4000 abstracts and 1200 full papers were reviewed. Thirty-six articles were included in the study, containing data on 72 discrete populations from 11 countries between 1987 and 2003, representing over 200,000 individuals. Studies on data collected prior to 1996 generally found either no association or the highest risk of HIV infection among the most educated. Studies conducted from 1996 onwards were more likely to find a lower risk of HIV infection among the most educated. Where data over time were available, HIV prevalence fell more consistently among highly educated groups than among less educated groups, in whom HIV prevalence sometimes rose while overall population prevalence was falling. In several populations, associations suggesting greater HIV risk in the more educated at earlier time points were replaced by weaker associations later. DISCUSSION: HIV infections appear to be shifting towards higher prevalence among the least educated in sub-Saharan Africa, reversing previous patterns. Policy responses that ensure HIV-prevention measures reach all strata of society and increase education levels are urgently needed.

Explaining continued high HIV prevalence in South Africa: socioeconomic factors, HIV incidence and sexual behaviour change among a rural cohort, 2001-2004.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate HIV incidence and explore evidence for changing sexual behaviour over time among men and women belonging to different socioeconomic groups in rural South Africa. DESIGN AND METHODS: A cohort study conducted between 2001 and 2004; 3881 individuals aged 14-35 years enumerated in eight villages were eligible. At least three household visits were made to contact each eligible respondent at both timepoints. Sexual behaviour data were collected in structured, respondent-focused interviews. HIV serostatus was assessed using an oral fluid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at each timepoint. RESULTS: Data on sexual behaviour were available from 1967 individuals at both timepoints. A total of 1286 HIV-negative individuals at baseline contributed to the analysis of incidence. HIV incidence was 2.2/100 person-years among men and 4.9/100 person-years in women, among whom it was highest in the least educated group. Median age at first sex was lower among later birth cohorts. A higher number of previously sexually active individuals reported having multiple partners in the past year in 2004 than 2001. Condom use with non-spousal partners increased from 2001 to 2004. Migrant men more often reported multiple partners. Migrant and more educated individuals of both sexes and women from wealthier households reported higher levels of condom use. DISCUSSION: HIV incidence is high in rural South Africa, particularly among women of low education. Some risky sexual behaviours (early sexual debut, having multiple sexual partners) are becoming more common over time. Condom use is increasing. Existing HIV prevention strategies have only been partly effective in generating population-level behavioural change.

Using health and demographic surveillance to understand the burden of disease in populations: the case of tuberculosis in rural South Africa.

AIMS: To utilize the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) platform to assess the burden of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in a rural South African sub-district. METHODS: During 1999, data from three sources were combined to estimate disease prevalence amongst a non-migrant adult population: (1) passive case-finding (PCF) through hospital register data; (2) active case finding (ACF) using a systematic household assessment of chronic coughers; and (3) verbal autopsy (VA) data on cause of death. RESULTS: Of 66,840 residents, 38,251 permanent adult residents were included in the analysis. A total of 102 cases of PTB were detected through PCF. ACF sweep detected 366 chronic coughers with 6 cases of confirmed PTB. Among 28 PTB deaths detected by VA, 13 (46%) were not previously identified by the health service. The total PTB prevalence was 157/100,000; 110/100,000 of prevalent cases were detected by PCF. Among undetected cases, 24/100,000 were identified through ACF, while 23/100,000 were detected by the VA process. CONCLUSIONS: Amongst prevalent PTB cases in the permanent adult population, 70% were detected by the health service; 15% of cases were undiagnosed in the community, while an equal proportion died of PTB prior to diagnosis. The latter groups contributed disproportionately to infectiousness in the community through prolonged duration of symptoms. As most of these cases presented to the health service on a number of occasions, strengthening early case detection should remain the cornerstone of TB control efforts. Strategies to strengthen the application of health & demographic surveillance systems to disease surveillance are discussed.