[Effet blouse blanche résiduel : un outil pertinent en soins premiers?] / Office white-coat effect tail: A useful tool in family practice?

BACKGROUND: White coat effect (WCE) and white coat hypertension (WCH) are hardly both compared in primary care. OBJECTIVE: To assess the usefulness of repeated measures of systolic blood pressure (SBP) to dissociate various forms of white-coat interactions. METHODS: An open cross-sectional study on consecutive patients treated or not for high blood pressure was made in family physicians' offices. SBP was measured 5 times by an electronic device. Measurements were performed before (SBP1) and after (SBP5) the office visit by a lay assistant and at the beginning (SBP2), middle (SBP3) and end (SBP4) of visit, by the family physician. Home BP (HBPM) was measured from 3 consecutive days by the patient. WCE and office WCE tail (OWCET) were defined, respectively, as a 10 mmHg SBP increase or decrease between SBP2-SBP1 or SBP4-SBP2. WCH was considered when HBPM was normal (SBP < 135 mmHg) at home and high during the SBP2 office visit. RESULTS: Two hundred five patients (134 women versus 71 men, ratio 1.9, aged 59.8±15.7 years) were recruited. In categorical terms, there were 51 patients (25%) who presented with WCE, OWCET was seen in 121 patients (62%) and 47 patients (23%) had WCH. Only 36 patients (18%) presented both OWCET and WCE and 32 (16%) had both OWCET and WCH. The receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) of OWCET in diagnosing WCE or WCH were respectively 0.67 (p<0.0001) and 0.53 (NS). CONCLUSION: Thus, OWCET was predictive of WCE and not of WCH and it is worthwhile to be measured in the family physician office.

Improving performance of 3D speckle tracking in arterial hypertension and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation by using novel strain parameters.

The function of left atrium (LA) is closely related to LA remodeling and one of the most important mechanisms is an increased deposition of fibrous tissue that often is the basis for LA electro-mechanical changes before the onset of atrial fibrillation (AF). This study evaluated LA shape and function, by investigating standard and novel strain parameters calculated by a new approach based on homologous times derived from 3D speckle tracking echocardiography (3DSTE) in hypertensive (HT) and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) patients with or without left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), compared to control (C) subjects. LA function was assessed using homologous times to compare strain variables among different individuals, acquired at different physiological time periods. Standard global longitudinal (GLS) and circumferential (GCS) strains were measured at peak of atrial diastole, while longitudinal and circumferential strains (GLSh, GCSh), strain rate (GLSr, GCSr), volume (Vh) and volume rate (Vr) were measured during the atrial telediastolic phase (fifth homologous time) and atrial pre-active phase (tenth homologous time). Using ANOVA, we found an impaired LA deformation detected by standard, interpolated strains and strain rates in both HT and PAF groups compared to C. We also performed ROC analysis to identify different performances of each parameter to discriminate groups (GLSr10 + GCSr10: C vs PAF 0.935; C vs PAF_LVH 0.924; C vs HT_LVH 0.844; C vs HT 0.756). Our study showed anatomical and functional LA remodeling in patients with PAF and HT. 3D strains and strain rates derived from the homologous times approach provide more functional information with improved performance to identify among the explored groups, in particular PAF patients.

Changes in left ventricular repolarization after short-term testosterone replacement therapy in hypogonadal males.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Evidences suggest that androgen deficiency is associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD). Our purpose was to analyse some electrocardiographic (ECG) markers of repolarization phase in hypogonadal patients either at baseline or after testosterone replacement therapy (TRT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Baseline and after 6 months of testosterone replacement therapy, 14 hypogonadal patients and 10 age-matched controls underwent a short-term ECG recordings at rest and immediately after a maximal exercise test. The following ECG parameters have been collected: QTe (the interval between the q wave the end of T wave), QTp (the interval between the q wave and the peak of T wave), and Te (the interval between the peak and the end of T wave). RESULTS: At baseline, in the hypogonadal patients, corrected QTe and QTp values were longer at rest than in the controls at rest (p < 0.05), whereas, during the recovery phase, only the QTp remained significantly longer (p < 0.05). After TRT, hypogonadal patients showed an improvement only in Te (p < 0.05). Conversely, any difference between hypogonadal patients and control subjects was found with respect to the markers of temporal dispersion of repolarization phases, except for a worse QTp → Te coherence (p = 0.001) obtained during the recovery phase. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, at rest, hypogonadal patients suffer from a stable increase in the myocardial repolarization phase without an increase in its temporal dispersion and, hence, the SCD risk seems to be low.

The natural history of prehypertension. A 20-year follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: According to the JNC7 report, prehypertension category includes subjects with systolic blood pressure between 120 and 139 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure between 80 and 89 mmHg that would be at risk for developing hypertension and its untoward sequelae as myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular disease. Moreover, ambulatory blood pressure monitoring made it possible to detect subjects with masked hypertension, who are at risk of greater target organ damage than those with normal ambulatory or home blood pressure. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of cardiac, cerebral and vascular events in a group of prehypertensive subjects, with and without masked hypertension. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied 204 consecutive asymptomatic prehypertensive subjects without history and signs of cardiovascular disease or diabetes. All the subjects underwent clinical evaluation, electrocardiogram, routine laboratory tests and ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. They were followed-up for a maximum of 237 months or until a cardiovascular event occurred. RESULTS: Twenty-seven cardiovascular events (13.2%) occurred, including 4 abdominal aortic aneurysms. Age (p<0.0001), total cholesterol (p=0.004), smoking (p=0.03) and clinically overt hypertension development (p=0.011) were related to cardiovascular events. Prognosis was not related to masked hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that, in subjects with prehypertension, followed for 20 years, traditional cardiovascular risk factors and development of clinically overt hypertension could be more relevant than ambulatory hypertension in the prediction of an adverse outcome.

The conceptual framework of ontogenetic trajectories: parallel transport allows the recognition and visualization of pure deformation patterns.

Ontogeny is usually studied by analyzing a deformation series spanning over juvenile to adult shapes. In geometric morphometrics, this approach implies applying generalized Procrustes analysis coupled with principal component analysis on multiple individuals or multiple species datasets. The trouble with such a procedure is that it mixes intra- and inter-group variation. While MANCOVA models are relevant statistical/mathematical tools to draw inferences about the similarities of trajectories, if one wants to observe and interpret the morphological deformation alone by filtering inter-group variability, a particular tool, namely parallel transport, is necessary. In the context of ontogenetic trajectories, one should firstly perform separate multivariate regressions between shape and size, using regression predictions to estimate within-group deformations relative to the smallest individuals. These deformations are then applied to a common reference (the mean of per-group smallest individuals). The estimation of deformations can be performed on the Riemannian manifold by using sophisticated connection metrics. Nevertheless, parallel transport can be effectively achieved by estimating deformations in the Euclidean space via ordinary Procrustes analysis. This approach proved very useful in comparing ontogenetic trajectories of species presenting large morphological differences at early developmental stages.

Metabolic syndrome and 10-year cardiovascular disease incidence: The ATTICA study.

AIMS: To evaluate the influence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) as well as inflammatory and renal markers on cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence. METHODS AND RESULTS: During 2001-2002, 1514 men and 1528 women (>18 y) without any clinical evidence of CVD or any other chronic disease, at baseline, living in greater Athens area, Greece, were enrolled. In 2011-2012, the 10-year follow-up was performed in 2583 participants (15% of the participants were lost to follow-up). Incidence of fatal or non-fatal CVD was defined according to WHO-ICD-10 criteria. MetS was defined using three definitions, provided by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment panel III (revised NCEP ATP III), the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) or the Harmonized definition. Furthermore, the contributory predictive role of C-reactive protein (CRP), inteleukin-6, uric acid and estimated glomerular filtration rate in the aforementioned models was evaluated. History of MetS-NCEP was positively associated with CVD, adjusting for potential confounding factors (OR:1.83, 95%CI:1.24-2.72). Not statistically significant associations with CVD incidence were observed when using the IDF or the Harmonized definition. Additionally, none of the added inflammatory and renal function markers mediated the influence of MetS on CVD incidence (all p's from Sobel test >0.40). C-statistic values for the MetS definitions used exceeded 0.789 (CI:0.751-0.827), indicating fair-to-good predictive probability of the models. CONCLUSION: Results of the present work revealed the negative impact of MetS-NCEP, but not of the other MetS definitions, on CVD incidence, a key-point that may help in better understanding the role of IDF and Harmonized MetS definitions on CVD.

The mechanisms of cardio-protective effects of desflurane and sevoflurane at the time of reperfusion: anaesthetic post-conditioning potentially translatable to humans?

Myocardial conditioning is actually an essential strategy in the management of ischaemia-reperfusion injury. The concept of anaesthetic post-conditioning is intriguing, its action occurring at a pivotal moment (that of reperfusion when ischaemia reperfusion lesions are initiated) where the activation of these cardio-protective mechanisms could overpower the mechanisms leading to ischaemia reperfusion injuries. Desflurane and sevoflurane are volatile anaesthetics frequently used during cardiac surgery. This review focuses on the efficacy of desflurane and sevoflurane administered during early reperfusion as a potential cardio-protective strategy. In the context of experimental studies in animal models and in human atrial tissues in vitro, the mechanisms underlying the cardio-protective effect of these agents and their capacity to induce post-conditioning have been reviewed in detail, underlining the role of reactive oxygen species generation, the activation of the cellular signalling pathways, and the actions on mitochondria along with the translatable actions in humans; this might well be sufficient to set the basis for launching randomized clinical studies, actually needed to confirm this strategy as one of real impact.

Is it possible a new definition of metabolic syndrome in childhood?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether a group of Italian children and adolescents who were diagnosed to have metabolic syndrome (MS) according to a new ethnic age and gender specific definition had, in comparison with a control group, other signs and metabolic risk factors which are commonly associated with MS. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The cross-sectional study population included 300 subjects (51% boys, age range 6-14 years), who were divided into 2 groups according to the presence of MS, diagnosed on the basis of 3/5 factors derived from the age and gender specific quantile distribution of MS components in a large regional Italian population survey (Calabrian Sierras Community Study, CSCS). In all subjects the following data were collected: anthropometric measures, blood pressure, liver function, C-reactive protein (hsCRP), uric acid blood levels, lipid and glucose profile. Triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio was calculated. RESULTS: There were 38 subjects (13%) with MS, who had higher indices of growth and fat distribution and higher blood levels of uric acid, alanine aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyltransferase. TG/HDL ratio was higher (median 3.11 vs. 1.14, p = 0.00001) in MS subjects who had lower apolipoprotein A and higher apolipoprotein B and non-HDL-C levels. hsCRP was not different between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our ethnic age and gender specific definition of MS in Italian children and adolescents was able to identify in a youth group different cardiometabolic risk factors related to insulin resistance, endothelial damage and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, which are commonly associated with MS diagnosis.

How the Seven Countries Study contributed to the definition and development of the Mediterranean diet concept: a 50-year journey.

The Seven Countries Study of Cardiovascular Diseases was started at the end of the 1950s and it continues to be run after >50 years. It enrolled, at entry, 16 population cohorts in eight nations of seven countries for a total of 12,763 middle-aged men. It was the prototype of epidemiological studies seeking cultural contrasts and the first to compare cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates related to diet differences. The study has shown that populations suffer widely different incidence and mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) as well as from other CVDs and overall mortality. Higher rates were found in North America and northern Europe, and lower rates in southern Europe - Mediterranean countries - and Japan. These differences in CHD rates were strongly associated with different levels of saturated fat consumption and average serum cholesterol levels, with lowest rates in Greece and Japan where the total fat intake was very different. The cohorts were also different in dietary patterns defined by the ratio of calories derived from plant foods and fish on the one hand and calories derived from animal foods and sugar on the other. These findings pointed to the so-called Mediterranean diet, which is characterized by large values of that plant/animal ratio, a pattern associated with lower incidence and mortality from CHD and also with the lowest death rates and the greatest survival rates. More recent studies have refined these concepts and documented on a larger scale the virtues of these eating habits.

Non-invasive assessment of functional strain lines in the real human left ventricle via speckle tracking echocardiography.

A mechanics-based analysis of data from three-dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography is proposed, aimed at investigating deformations in myocardium and at assessing shape and function of distinct strain lines corresponding to the principal strain lines of the cardiac tissue. The analysis is based on the application of a protocol of measurement of the endocardial and epicardial principal strain lines, which was already tested on simulated left ventricles. In contrast with similar studies, it is established that endocardial principal strain lines cannot be identified with any structural fibers, not even along the systolic phase and is suggested that it is due to the capacity of the endocardial surface to contrast the dilation of the left ventricle.

Lifestyle habits and mortality from all and specific causes of death: 40-year follow-up in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study.

OBJECTIVES: Three lifestyle factors were investigated in a population study to explore their relationships with a long-term mortality. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In a cohort of 1564 men aged 45-64 and examined in 1965 within the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study, smoking habits, physical activity at work and eating habits (as derived from factor analysis) were determined. During the follow-up 693 men died in 20 years and 1441 in 40 years. RESULTS: In Cox proportional hazards models men smoking cigarettes (versus never smokers), those having a sedentary activity (versus the very active) and those following the Diet Score 1, indexing an unhealthy Diet (versus men with a Diet close to the healthy Mediterranean style) had highly significant hazards ratios (HR) in relations with 20- and 40-year mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease (CHD), cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. HR for all causes in 40 years were 1.44 (95% confidence intervals, CI, 1.27 and 1.64) for smokers, 1.43 (CI 1.23 and 1.67) for sedentary people, and 1.31 (CI 1.15 and 1.50) for men with unhealthy diet. Larger HR were found for CHD, CVD and cancers deaths. Combination of 3 unhealthy risk factors versus their absence was associated with 4.8-year life loss in the 20-year follow-up and 10.7-year in the 40-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle behavior linked to physical activity and smoking and eating habits is strongly associated with mortality and survival in middle aged men during long-term follow-up.

Torsion of the human left ventricle: experimental analysis and computational modeling.

We set a twofold investigation: we assess left ventricular (LV) rotation and twist in the human heart through 3D-echocardiographic speckle tracking, and use representative experimental data as benchmark with respect to numerical results obtained by solving our mechanical model of the LV. We aim at new insight into the relationships between myocardial contraction patterns and the overall behavior at the scale of the whole organ. It is concluded that torsional rotation is sensitive to transmural gradients of contractility which is assumed linearly related to action potential duration (APD). Pressure-volume loops and other basic strain measures are not affected by these gradients. Therefore, realistic torsional behavior of human LV may indeed correspond to the electrophysiological and functional differences between endocardial and epicardial cells recently observed in non-failing hearts. Future investigations need now to integrate the mechanical model proposed here with minimal models of human ventricular APD to drive excitation-contraction coupling transmurally.

Preconditioning effects of levosimendan in coronary artery bypass grafting--a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: The calcium sensitizer levosimendan protects against myocardial ischaemia and reperfusion injury in animal models. METHODS: The present pilot study investigated whether a short infusion before coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) would protect the myocardium and improve postoperative haemodynamics. Twenty-four patients with stable angina undergoing elective CABG surgery were randomized to receive either placebo or levosimendan (24 microg kg(-1)) infused i.v. over a 10 min period just before placing the patient on cardiopulmonary bypass. RESULTS: Perioperative haemodynamic variables, concentrations of cardiac troponin I over the 48 h postoperative period, and clinical outcomes were assessed. There were no adverse effects related to levosimendan. Compared with control patients, levosimendan-treated patients had lower postoperative troponin I concentrations (P<0.05) and a higher cardiac index (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Patients receiving a short infusion of levosimendan before CABG showed evidence of less myocardial damage, suggestive of a preconditioning effect. Larger outcome studies are thus indicated to confirm benefit.

Twenty-five-year coronary mortality trends in the seven countries study using the accelerated failure time model.

The 'accelerated failure time model' (AFT) was tested in the 25-year experience of the Seven Countries Study, to describe the shape of hazard for coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality during long-term follow-up. Sixteen cohorts of men aged 40-59 at entry were enrolled in eight countries (USA, Finland, The Netherlands, Italy, Croatia, Serbia, Greece and Japan) for a total of 12,763 subjects. Risk factors were measured and CHD mortality data collected during 25 years. The AFT incorporating the Weibull survival distribution was applied to the pooled cohorts of each country, with CHD mortality as endpoint. Cumulative hazards and the annual hazard for CHD mortality were estimated during 25 years and compared among countries. The annual hazard for CHD in 25 years tended to reduce relatively or flatten out in the northern American and northern European countries, exponentially increased in Serbia and Japan, and increased moderately in the other countries of southern Europe. Positive correlations were found between the shape of the hazard curve and population mean risk factor changes (serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure) observed during the first 10 years follow-up. The Japanese group was an outlier. The countries with the largest relative decline in the annual hazard function were the same where, during the same historical period, the largest decreases in official death rates from CHD were recorded and vice versa. The curve shape in the annual hazard for CHD mortality in different countries seems related to changes in mean levels of serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure.

Serum uric acid for short-term prediction of cardiovascular disease incidence in the Gubbio population Study.

OBJECTIVE: The Gubbio Study is an Italian population study measuring risk factors for and incidence of major cardiovascular diseases. This analysis investigates the association of serum uric acid with the incidence of coronary and cardiovascular events. METHODS: A population sample of 2469 men and women aged 35-74 years, free from major cardiovascular diseases and in whom serum uric acid was measured in 1983 along with other standard risk factors, were followed up for 6 years and the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and all cardiovascular atherosclerotic (CVD) events, both fatal and non-fatal, was computed. Proportional hazards models were used for the prediction of these events. RESULTS: In six years 61 CHD hard criteria, 109 CHD any criterion and 149 CVD events were recorded. Age-adjusted rates per 1000 of the 3 event categories were computed in sex-specific quintiles (Q) of serum uric acid with 428 +/- 76 (Q5) and 198 +/- 42 (Q1) micromol/l, respectively. Although higher rates were seen in Q5 as compared to Q1 for all three first event categories considered (relative risks 6.2, 3.6 and 3.7, respectively), a statistically significant trend was seen only for CVD all criteria (t = 3.63, p < 0.036). These trends were borderline significant for CHD any criterion (t = 2.92, p < 0.06) and not significant for CHD hard criteria (t = 2.23, p < 0.11). In multivariate models, adjusted for 8 other risk factors, serum uric acid showed a statistically significant contribution to predict CVD incidence [relative risk (RR) for 92 micromol/l difference of 1.24 with 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.05-1.45], whereas the statistical contribution to predict CHD any criterion (RR = 1.19 with CI 0.98-1.45) and CHD hard criteria (RR = 1.20 with CI 0.93-1.55) was not significant. Diuretic treatment and blood urea, as further confounders, were positively and significantly related to event incidence (RR ranging from 1.21 to 2.00) but serum uric acid maintained its independent and statistically significant role in the prediction of CVD events (RR = 1.18 with CI 1.00-1.39). Presence of specific treatments to lower serum uric acid levels (in 1.13% of the population), tested as final confounders, was not statistically contributory. CONCLUSIONS: Increased serum uric acid levels are independently and significantly associated with risk of CVD events in the 6-year follow-up of the Gubbio Study. Longer follow-up is needed before the contributory role of serum uric acid can be properly assessed to explain CHD incidence.

Assessment of flow velocity reserve by transthoracic Doppler echocardiography and venous adenosine infusion before and after left anterior descending coronary artery stenting.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate whether coronary flow velocity reserve (CFR) (the ratio between hyperemic and baseline peak flow velocity), as measured by transthoracic Doppler echocardiography during adenosine infusion, allows detection of flow changes in the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) before and after stenting. BACKGROUND: The immediate post-stenting evaluation of CFR by intracoronary Doppler has shown mixed results, due to reactive hyperemia and microvascular stunning. Noninvasive coronary Doppler echocardiography may be a more reliable measure than intracoronary Doppler. METHODS: Transthoracic Doppler echocardiography during 90-s venous adenosine infusion (140 microg/kg body weight per min) was used to measure CFR of the LAD in 45 patients before and 3.7 +/- 2 days after successful stenting, as well as in 25 subjects with an angiographically normal LAD (control group). RESULTS: Adequate Doppler spectra were obtained in 96% of the patients. Pre-stent CFR was significantly lower in patients than in control subjects (diastolic CFR: 1.45 +/- 0.5 vs. 2.72 +/- 0.71, p < 0.01; systolic CFR: 1.61 +/- 1.02 vs. 2.41 +/- 0.68, p < 0.01) and increased toward the normal range after stenting (diastolic CFR: 2.58 +/- 0.7 vs. 2.72 +/- 0.75, p = NS; systolic CFR: 2.43 +/- 1.01 vs. 2.41 +/- 0.52, p = NS). Diastolic CFR was often damped, suggesting coronary steal in patients with > or =90% versus <90% LAD stenosis (0.86 +/- 0.23 vs. 1.69 +/- 0.43, p < 0.01). Coronary stenting normalized diastolic CFR in these two groups (2.45 +/- 0.77 and 2.64 +/- 0.69, respectively, p = NS), even though impaired diastolic CFR persisted in three of four patients with > or =90% stenosis. Stenosis of the LAD was better discriminated by diastolic (F = 49.30) than systolic (F = 12.20) CFR (both p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Coronary flow reserve, as measured by transthoracic Doppler echocardiography, is impaired in LAD disease; it may identify patients with > or =90% stenosis; and it normalizes early after stenting, even in patients with > or =90% stenosis.

Impact of the Gubbio population study on community control of blood pressure and hypertension. Gubbio Study Research Group.

BACKGROUND: Awareness and treatment of hypertension have markedly increased in the last 30 years in most parts of the world, but a satisfactory control of blood pressure is still infrequent OBJECTIVES: To describe trends in community control of hypertension and blood pressure levels in the small town of Gubbio, Italy. METHODS: Large samples of the populations (aged 30-79 years) were examined 6 years apart for measurement of blood pressure, other cardiovascular risk factors and knowledge, attitude and practice towards control of hypertension. Data were available from a total of 1125 men and 1445 women with two examinations and 1566 men and 1658 women with at least one examination. Two different definitions of hypertension were used (old definition: systolic blood pressure (SBP) > or = 160 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) > or = 95 mmHg or use of antihypertensive drugs; recent definition: SBP > or = 140 mmHg or DBP > or =90 mmHg or use of anti-hypertensive drugs). RESULTS: Awareness, treatment and control of hypertension increased from one survey to the other, whatever definition of hypertension was used. Control rose from 41 to 63% (old definition) and from 12 to 24% (recent definition). In a 6-year period, the average population SBP declined 2-8 mmHg and DBP declined 2-3 mmHg depending on type of analysis, against an expected rise of 9 mmHg for SBP and 2 mmHg for DBP. These trends are partly explained by a marked decline in alcohol consumption and by more common and intensive anti-hypertensive treatment, while change in body mass index, which showed a slight but systematic increase, cannot be considered as a contributor to this trend. CONCLUSIONS: An epidemiological study has motivated a population group and its medical profession towards a better control of hypertension.

An Italian chart for cardiovascular risk prediction. Its scientific basis.

A risk chart for primary prediction of major coronary and cerebrovascular events based on Italian population data was created. Material from three Italian population studies was available: the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study (no. 1712), the Gubbio Study (no. 3061) and the ECCIS Study (no. 4998) for a total of 9771 men and women aged 35 to 74 years and followed-up from 5 to 15 years, for a total of over 55,000 person/years. Sex, age, diabetes, cigarette smoking, systolic blood pressure and serum cholesterol were selected as risk factors, while the endpoint was established as the occurrence of the first major coronary or cerebrovascular event in 10 years. The accelerated failure time model was used as the predictive model. Two models were adopted, i.e., for relatively younger subjects (45-59 years) and for relatively older subjects (60-74 years). Both produced highly significant coefficients for each of the selected risk factors. The two models carried a satisfactory discriminating power, with 40% to more than 50% of all events located in the upper quintile of the estimated risk. Sex, age (6 classes), diabetes, cigarette smoking (4 classes), systolic blood pressure (4 classes) and serum cholesterol (5 classes) were considered for the creation of a risk map derived from multivariate models. A total of 1920 cells were filled with different colors corresponding to 6 classes of absolute risk. A similar set of cells was filled with another color scale for the estimate of the relative risk versus subjects of the same age and sex carrying Italian mean levels of risk factors. The chart is being distributed to the Italian medical profession as a practical tool to select high-risk individuals for the primary prevention of major cardiovascular diseases.