Increased ecological land and atmospheric CO2 dominate the growth of ecosystem carbon sinks under the regulation of environmental conditions in national key ecological function zones in China.

Increased ecological land (IEL) such as forests and grasslands can greatly enhance ecosystem carbon sinks. Understanding the mechanisms for the magnitude of IEL-induced ecosystem carbon sinks is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. We estimated the impact of IEL, specifically the increase in forests and grasslands, as well as global changes including atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, and climate change on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in National Key Ecological Function Zones (NKEFZs) in China using a calibrated ecological process model. The NEP in NKEFZs in China was calculated to be 119.4 Tg C yr-1, showing an increase of 42.6 Tg C yr-1 from 2001 to 2021. Compared to the slight contributions of climate change (-8.0%), nitrogen deposition (11.5%), and reduction in ecological land (-3.5%), the increase in NEP was primarily attributed to CO2 (66.5%) and IEL (33.5%). Moreover, the effect of IEL (14.8 Tg C yr-1) surpassed that of global change (13.1 Tg C yr-1) in the land use change zone. The IEL-induced NEP is significantly associated with CO2 fertilization, regulated by precipitation and nitrogen deposition. The high values of IEL-induced NEP occurred in areas with precipitation exceeding 800 mm and nitrogen deposition exceeding 25 kg N ha-1 yr-1. We recommend prioritizing the expansion of ecological land in areas with sufficient water and nutrients to enhance CO2 fertilization, while avoiding increasing ecological land in regions facing unfavorable climate change conditions. This study serves as a foundation for comprehending the NEP response to ecological restoration and global change.

Impact of Epidemic-Affected Labor Shortage on Food Safety: A Chinese Scenario Analysis Using the CGE Model.

Human food safety should be given priority during a major public health crisis. As the primary element of agricultural production, labor tends to suffer the most during a period of public health concern. Studying the impact of epidemic-affected labor shortages on agricultural production, trade, and prices has important implications for food security. This study used a calculable general equilibrium model to study the changes in agricultural production, trade, and prices under different labor damage scenarios. The results showed that agricultural production was less affected under a scenario where the epidemic was controlled locally. The output of agricultural products decreased by about 2.19%, and the prices of agricultural products increased slightly. However, the nationwide output of agricultural products decreased by only 0.1%, and the prices remained largely stable. In the case of the spread of the epidemic, the output of agricultural products in the epidemic area decreased by 2.11%, and the prices of certain agricultural products increased significantly. For example, the price of vegetables increased by 0.78%, the price of pork increased by about 0.7%, and those of agricultural products in other parts of the country also increased slightly. Compared with the national spread scenario, the local outbreak scenario had a smaller impact on Chinese food security, indicating Chinese effective policy against the epidemic. Although the impact of labor shortage under the influence of the epidemic on China was relatively limited, and considering its stable food security, we should pay attention to the increase in the process of agricultural products and changes in agricultural trade in the epidemic area. The residents in the epidemic areas could not effectively obtain nutritious food, which affected their health. Thus, the government should also completely mobilize agricultural resources to ensure the nutrition safety of residents during major public health incidents.

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Determinants of Grain Self-Sufficiency in China.

The pattern of grain self-sufficiency plays a fundamental role in maintaining food security. We analyzed the patterns and determinants of grain production and demand, as well as grain self-sufficiency, in China over a 30-year period. The results show that China's total grain production, with an obvious northeast-southwest direction, increased by 63%, and yields of rice, wheat, corn, tubers, and beans increased by 16, 49, 224, 6, and 103%, respectively. The trends in ration and feed grain consumption changes at the provincial scale were roughly the same as at the national scale, with the ration consumption ratio decreasing and the ratio of feed grain consumption increasing. The ration consumption in Northwest China was relatively high, while the feed grain consumption rates in Shanghai, Guangdong, Beijing, Tianjin, and Chongqing were higher. Compared with ration and feed grain, the proportions of seed grain and grain loss were relatively small. China's grain consumption mainly concentrated in the central and eastern regions of China. Total grain, rice, corn, wheat, tubers, and beans consumption in feed grain showed a northeast-southwest trend, with consumption centers all shifting southward in the 30-year period. Corn accounted for the largest proportion in feed grain, followed by beans. Urban feed grain and urban ration hot spot areas have gradually transferred from the northwest to southeast coastal areas. The hot spots of rural feed grain consumption and rural ration consumption remained almost unchanged, located in the south of the Yangtze River and Central and Southern China, respectively. The grain self-sufficiency level developed well in the study period, while the areas with grain deficit were Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan. The areas with high supply and high demand were mainly located in Central and East China, the areas with high supply and low demand were mainly distributed in Northeast China, and the areas with low supply and low demand were mainly located in Western China. The pattern of self-sufficiency of corn in feed grain has remained basically unchanged; the areas with corn feed grain deficit were Central and Southeast China, while North China had corn feed grain surplus. Compared with corn feed, the surplus of soybean feed was relatively poor. Factor detector analysis revealed that in different periods, the same impact factor had different explanatory power in the supply and demand pattern, and the comprehensive consideration of any two factors will enhance the explanatory power of grain supply and demand pattern.

Impact Mechanism of the Ecological Vulnerability of Highly Developed Islands Based on the Bayesian Network Model-Applied to the Changshan Islands.

Islands are one of the most sensitive interfaces between global changes and land and sea dynamic effects, with high sensitivity and low stability. Therefore, under the dynamic coupling effect of human activities and frequent natural disasters, the vulnerability of the ecological environment of islands shows the characteristics of complexity and diversity. For the protection of island ecosystems, a system for the assessment of island ecosystems and studies on the mechanism of island ecological vulnerability are highly crucial. In this study, the North and South Changshan Islands of China were selected as the study area. Considering various impact factors of island ecological vulnerability, the geographical information systems (GIS) spatial analysis, field surveys, data sampling were used to evaluate island ecological vulnerability. The Bayesian network model was used to explore the impact mechanism of ecological vulnerability. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability of the North Changshan Island is higher than that of the South Changshan Island. Among all the indicators, the proportion of net primary productivity (NPP) and the steep slope has the strongest correlation with ecological vulnerability. This study can be used as references in the relevant departments to formulate management policies and promote the sustainable development of islands and their surrounding waters.

Can technology R&D continuously improve green development level in the open economy? Empirical evidence from China's industrial sector.

Applying a global DEA model based on non-radial directional distance function, this paper constructs a comprehensive efficiency index to estimate green development level and further identifies the influencing mechanism of technology R&D on green development in China's industrial sector. The results demonstrate that the level of green development in China's industrial sector declined year by year and the average was 0.27, and it also shows significant regional characteristics within the sample period. Besides, the environment pollution transferred from the east to the central and the west. In addition, the results also indicate that there is a threshold effect for the impact of technology R&D on China's industrial green development. Based on the volume of the trade openness, this effect presents a "N"-type characteristic that tilts to the right. According to the research results, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward, which may be of great importance to improve the green development level in China's industrial sector.

The total suitability of water yield and carbon sequestration under multi-scenario simulations in the Weihe watershed, China.

Global climate change and national policies play an important role in regional ecosystem services, both of which should be fully considered when exploring their effective use and management. Bayesian belief network (BBN) is often used in complicated system modelling. Using a BBN to construct a network framework of ecosystem services under climate and policy scenarios for exploring the total suitability distribution of ecosystem services is of great significance. In this study, we develop BBN for the total suitability of water yield and carbon sequestration based on hydro-biogeochemical process. And then we predict the probabilities of the total suitability in 2050 through the BBN under multi-scenario simulations accounting for climate change, birth control and carbon tax policies. Finally, total suitability priority regions are mapped, which are synergy development, water yield suitability, carbon sequestration suitability and non-suitability, respectively. Our results indicate forest, cropland, urban area, and grassland have the largest areas under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The abolition of the one-child policy has led to a significant expansion of urban areas, and the implementation of the carbon tax policy has greatly increased forest areas. Additionally, temperature, Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), precipitation and land use are the key driving factors that influence suitability. The suitable priority regions of different alternatives help policy makers consider ecological protection priorities while addressing management options.

Integrating ecosystem services flows into water security simulations in water scarce areas: Present and future.

Water resources are indispensable resources for human survival. Researchers have used different methods to evaluate regional water security situations to ensure sustainable development. However, existing water security assessment models focus on the current status of water security in a static state and do not introduce flow characteristics of water resources into regional water security assessments. On the other hand, the quality of water resources should be reflected in not only current water security situations but also change trends of water security. Therefore, this paper attempts to integrate ecosystem service flows into a water security simulation using a simplified service path attribution networks (SPANs) model. Simultaneously, by simulating future scenarios and comparing future and current water security statuses, this paper systematically evaluates regional water security status and provides water security management and control suggestions that meet the requirements of regional development. The results show that water security in Henan Province and Shandong Province is lacking, and water resource management and control measures need to be strengthened to improve the water security in these areas. The water security assessment framework established in this paper not only reasonably assesses the status of water security but also provides a development model that meets the needs of the study area through a multiple scenario analysis. This study provides a scientific basis for government departments to formulate water management policies.

Setting conservation priorities based on ecosystem services - A case study of the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region.

Economic development and the increased human demand for natural resources have seriously damaged many ecosystems. Nature reserves are areas with good natural conditions, abundant natural resources and healthy ecosystems that have been established for protection and management. This paper introduces cultural ecosystem services into the selection criteria for priority conservation areas. Both natural and human factors are considered, making it possible to protect both ecological and cultural services in reserves. In this paper, (1) the cultural ecosystem services of the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region were estimated and quantified using questionnaires and the SolVES application; (2) the supplying services (water yield) and regulating services (net primary productivity (NPP), soil conservation) were calculated, and several ecosystem services were valued by models combining human and cultural data; and (3) multiple scenarios were considered, and a priority conservation area with NPP, soil conservation, water yield, aesthetic value and recreation protection efficiencies of 1.315, 2.458, 1.018, 1.414, and 1.079, respectively was selected by comparing the protection efficiencies of the different areas in each scenario to achieve the highest value for the various ecosystem services in the study area. The results provide decision support for the environmental protection of the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region.

Taking climate, land use, and social economy into estimation of carbon budget in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China.

Carbon sequestration is an indispensable ecosystem service provided by soil and vegetation, so mapping and valuing the carbon budget by considering both ecological and social factors is an important trend in evaluating ecosystem services. In this work, we established multiple scenarios to evaluate the impacts of land use change, population growth, carbon emission per capita, and carbon markets on carbon budget. We quantified carbon sinks (aboveground and belowground) under different scenarios, using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and an improved carbon cycle process model, and studied carbon sources caused by human activities by analyzing the spatial distribution of human population and carbon emission per capita. We also assessed the net present value (NPV) for carbon budgets under different carbon price and discount rate scenarios using NPV model. Our results indicate that the carbon budget of Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region is surplus: Carbon sinks range from 1.50 × 1010 to 1.54 × 1010 t, while carbon sources caused by human activities range from 2.76 × 105 to 7.60 × 105 t. And the NPV for carbon deficits range from 3.20 × 1011 RMB to 1.52 × 1012 RMB. From the perspective of ecological management, deforestation, urban sprawl, population growth, and excessive carbon consumption are considered as the main challenges in balancing carbon sources and sinks. Levying carbon tax would be a considerable option when decision maker develops carbon emission reduction policies. Our results provide a scientific and credible reference for harmonious and sustainable development in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China.

Changes in land-uses and ecosystem services under multi-scenarios simulation.

Social economy of China has been rapidly developing for more than 30years with efficient reforms and policies being issued. Societal developments have resulted in a greater use of many natural resources to the extent that the ecosystem can no longer self-regulate, thus severely damaging the balance of the ecosystem itself. This in turn has led to a deterioration in people's living environments. Our research is based on a combination of climate scenarios presented in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy scenarios, including the one-child policy and carbon tax policy. We adopted Land Change Modeler of IDRISI software to simulate and analyze land-use change under 16 future scenarios in 2050. Carbon sequestration, soil conservation and water yields were quantified, based on those land-use maps and different ecosystem models. We also analyzed trade-offs and synergy among each ecosystem service and discussed why those interactions happened. The results show that: (1) Global climate change has a strong influence on future changes in land-use. (2) Carbon sequestration, water yield and soil conservation have a mutual relationship in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. (3) Climate change and implementation of policy have a conspicuous impact on the changes in ecosystem services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. This paper can be used as a reference for further related research, and provide a reliable basis for achieving the sustainable development of the ecosystem.

Long noncoding RNA linc00617 exhibits oncogenic activity in breast cancer.

Protein-coding genes account for only 2% of the human genome, whereas the vast majority of transcripts are noncoding RNAs including long noncoding RNAs. LncRNAs are involved in the regulation of a diverse array of biological processes, including cancer progression. An evolutionarily conserved lncRNA TUNA, was found to be required for pluripotency of mouse embryonic stem cells. In this study, we found the human ortholog of TUNA, linc00617, was upregulated in breast cancer samples. Linc00617 promoted motility and invasion of breast cancer cells and induced epithelial-mesenchymal-transition (EMT), which was accompanied by generation of stem cell properties. Moreover, knockdown of linc00617 repressed lung metastasis in vivo. We demonstrated that linc00617 upregulated the expression of stemness factor Sox2 in breast cancer cells, which was shown to promote the oncogenic activity of breast cancer cells by stimulating epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition and enhancing the tumor-initiating capacity. Thus, our data indicate that linc00617 functions as an important regulator of EMT and promotes breast cancer progression and metastasis via activating the transcription of Sox2. Together, it suggests that linc00617 may be a potential therapeutic target for aggressive breast cancer. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ecosystem Services Insights into Water Resources Management in China: A Case of Xi'an City.

Global climate and environmental changes are endangering global water resources; and several approaches have been tested to manage and reduce the pressure on these decreasing resources. This study uses the case study of Xi'an City in China to test reasonable and effective methods to address water resource shortages. The study generated a framework combining ecosystem services and water resource management. Seven ecosystem indicators were classified as supply services, regulating services, or cultural services. Index values for each indicator were calculated, and based on questionnaire results, each index's weight was calculated. Using the Likert method, we calculated ecosystem service supplies in every region of the city. We found that the ecosystem's service capability is closely related to water resources, providing a method for managing water resources. Using Xi'an City as an example, we apply the ecosystem services concept to water resources management, providing a method for decision makers.

Trade-Off and Synergy among Ecosystem Services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China.

Natural ecosystems provide society with important goods and services. With rapidly increasing populations and excessive utilization of natural resources, humans have been enhancing the production of some services at the expense of others. Although the need for certain trade-offs between conservation and development is urgent, having only a small number of efficient methods to assess such trade-offs has impeded progress. This study focuses on the evaluation of ecosystem services under different land use schemes. It reveals the spatial and temporal distributions of and changes in ecosystem services. Based on a correlation rate model and distribution mapping, the trade-offs and synergies of these ecosystem services can be found. Here, we also describe a new simple approach to quantify the relationships of every trade-off and synergy. The results show that all ecosystem services possess trade-offs and synergies in the study area. The trend of improving carbon sequestration and water interception indicate that these key ecosystem services have the strongest synergy. And the decrease in regional agricultural production and other services, except water yield, may be considered as trade-offs. The synergy between water yield and agricultural production was the most significant, while the trade-off between water interception and carbon sequestration was the most apparent, according to our interaction quantification model. The results of this study have implications for planning and monitoring the future management of natural capital and ecosystem services, and can be integrated into land use decision-making.