Scale up urban agriculture to leverage transformative food systems change, advance social-ecological resilience and improve sustainability.

Scaling up urban agriculture could leverage transformative change, to build and maintain resilient and sustainable urban systems. Current understanding of drivers, processes and pathways for scaling up urban agriculture, however, remains fragmentary and largely siloed in disparate disciplines and sectors. Here we draw on multiple disciplinary domains to present an integrated conceptual framework of urban agriculture and synthesize literature to reveal its social-ecological effects across scales. We demonstrate plausible multi-phase developmental pathways, including dynamics, accelerators and feedback associated with scaling up urban agriculture. Finally, we discuss key considerations for scaling up urban agriculture, including diversity, heterogeneity, connectivity, spatial synergies and trade-offs, nonlinearity, scale and polycentricity. Our framework provides a transdisciplinary roadmap for policy, planning and collaborative engagement to scale up urban agriculture and catalyse transformative change towards more robust urban resilience and sustainability.

Grassland intensification effects cascade to alter multifunctionality of wetlands within metaecosystems.

Sustainable agricultural intensification could improve ecosystem service multifunctionality, yet empirical evidence remains tenuous, especially regarding consequences for spatially coupled ecosystems connected by flows across ecosystem boundaries (i.e., metaecosystems). Here we aim to understand the effects of land-use intensification on multiple ecosystem services of spatially connected grasslands and wetlands, where management practices were applied to grasslands but not directly imposed to wetlands. We synthesize long-term datasets encompassing 53 physical, chemical, and biological indicators, comprising >11,000 field measurements. Our results reveal that intensification promotes high-quality forage and livestock production in both grasslands and wetlands, but at the expense of water quality regulation, methane mitigation, non-native species invasion resistance, and biodiversity. Land-use intensification weakens relationships among ecosystem services. The effects on grasslands cascade to alter multifunctionality of embedded natural wetlands within the metaecosystems to a similar extent. These results highlight the importance of considering spatial flows of resources and organisms when studying land-use intensification effects on metaecosystems as well as when designing grassland and wetland management practices to improve landscape multifunctionality.

Assessing coupling interactions in a safe and just operating space for regional sustainability.

Human activities affect the Earth System with an unprecedented magnitude, causing undesirable irreversible degradation. The United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide an integrated global action plan for sustainable development. However, it remains a great challenge to develop actionable strategies to achieve regional sustainability within social-environmental constraints. Here we proposed a framework, integrating safe and just operating space (SJOS) with SDGs, to assess regional sustainability and interactions between environmental performance and human well-being across scales. Despite China has not fully achieved sustainable development from 2000 to 2018, most provinces have shown significant improvements. Our analyses further delineated four development patterns (i.e., coupled and developed, coupled and underdeveloped, uncoupled and underdeveloped, and coupled and underdeveloped), and developed targeted strategies and pathways for each pattern to transition towards sustainability. Our operationalizable framework is broadly applicable to other regions or nations to actualize sustainable development.

Invasive snails alter multiple ecosystem functions in subtropical wetlands.

Invasive species that compromise ecosystem functioning through direct and indirect (or cascading) pathways are a rising global threat. Apple snails (Pomacea spp.) are semi-aquatic freshwater invaders that have exerted devastating ecological and economic impacts on agricultural wetlands and are emerging as a major threat to the structures and functions of natural wetlands. In this research, we conducted a field mesocosm experiment in subtropical wetlands in Florida, USA to investigate how P. maculata alter a suite of wetland vegetation, water, and soil processes and how these effects vary across wetlands under two different management intensities. Overall, we found that invasive snails substantially decreased aboveground biomass and vegetation cover and exhibited preferential feeding on wetland plant species. In addition, snails increased water nutrients (e.g., total carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous and dissolved solids), but showed minimal impacts on soil pools and processes. While most effects of invasive P. maculata were similar across wetland types, certain responses (e.g., algal biomass) were divergent. Our study provides holistic evidence on multiple direct and indirect consequences of invasive apple snails along the wetland plant-water-soil continuum. By altering plant assemblages and nutrient cycling (e.g., via consumption, egestion, and excretion), P. maculata invasion could hamper vital wetland services, which is concerning for these globally vulnerable ecosystems. Differential snail effects across management intensities further suggest the need for tailored actions to mitigate apple snail impacts and conserve wetland ecosystems.

Direct and indirect pathways of land management effects on wetland plant litter decomposition.

Litter decomposition is a fundamental process underpinning multiple ecosystem services. Despite a long history of research on decomposition, direct and indirect effects of multiple interactive land management on wetland decomposition yet remain less well understood. Here, we used a long-term whole-ecosystem wetland experiment in south-central Florida to investigate interactive effects of land-use intensification, cattle grazing and prescribed fire on in situ wetland plant litter decomposition. We further examined the direct and indirect pathways of land management effects on litter decomposition through changes in associated litter traits, soil properties, and soil microbial attributes using structural equation models. We used the litterbag technique that quantifies decomposition rates (k-values) and recalcitrant fractions (A-values). Our results showed that land-use intensification increased k-values in ungrazed wetlands and decreased k-values in grazed wetlands, but consistently reduced A-values regardless of other treatments. Prescribed fire individually suppressed litter decomposition by reducing k and increasing A. Further, these effects occurred through altering litter, soil, and microbial properties. Our results revealed that litter traits and soil properties were the first two strongest factors in determining wetland decomposition processes. Particularly, litter P and Mg contents and soil P and K contents were the best predictors for k, while litter Ca and lignin contents and soil pH, N and water content best predicted A. Moreover, microbial traits exhibited interactive effects with litter and soil properties to affect wetland litter decomposition. Our research suggests that cattle grazing could buffer against stimulating effect of land-use intensification on decomposition rates and thus avoid nutrient releases pulses. Our study further indicates that land-use intensification and fire suppression in subtropical wetlands could promote organic matter depletion and thus nutrient loss, highlighting the need to reduce anthropogenic disturbances to natural wetlands to maintain their capacity for providing associated regulating and supporting services.

Scaling up experimental stress responses of grass invasion to predictions of continental-level range suitability.

Understanding how the biological invasion is driven by environmental factors will improve model prediction and advance early detection, especially in the context of accelerating anthropogenic ecological changes. Although a large body of studies has examined how favorable environments promote biological invasions, a more comprehensive and mechanistic understanding of invasive species response to unfavorable/stressful conditions is still developing. Grass invasion has been problematic across the globe; in particular, C4 grass invaders, with high drought tolerance, adaptations to high temperatures, and high water use efficiency, could become more severe. Here, we conducted a rigorous microcosm experiment, with one of the most damaging invasive C4 grass, cogongrass (Imperata cylindrica), to explore how cogongrass responds to soil water and nutrient stress. We further integrated the results of the microcosm study with a species distribution model to (1) corroborate greenhouse results with field observations and (2) validate the robustness of our findings at subcontinental scales. Both the microcosm experiments and species distribution model agreed that soil water stress had a stronger impact on cogongrass than the nutrient one. New vegetative growth of cogongrass continued to be inhibited by the prior water stress. The significant water effect on cogongrass total biomass was supported by the finding that both allometric and biochemical traits of cogongrass did not show significant responses to the changes in water treatment. Different to the conventional wisdom that nutrient enrichment plays a bigger role in facilitating biological invasions, this study highlighted the possibility that water conditions may have a more substantial effect on some aggressive invaders. Therefore, an important implication of this study on biological conservation is that field managers might take advantage of the negative effect of global drought on some invasive species to increase the efficiency of their controlling efforts because invasive species may become more vulnerable under drought effect.

Scaling up biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships across space and over time.

Understanding how to scale up effects of biological diversity on ecosystem functioning and services remains challenging. There is a general consensus that biodiversity loss alters ecosystem processes underpinning the goods and services upon which humanity depends. Yet most of that consensus stems from experiments performed at small spatial scales for short time frames, which limits transferability of conclusions to longer-term, landscape-scale conservation policies and management. Here we develop quantitative scaling relationships linking 374 experiments that tested plant diversity effects on biomass production across a range of scales. We show that biodiversity effects increase by factors of 1.68 and 1.10 for each 10-fold increase in experiment temporal and spatial scales, respectively. Contrary to prior studies, our analyses suggest that the time scale of experiments, rather than their spatial scale, is the primary source of variation in biodiversity effects. But consistent with earlier research, our analyses reveal that complementarity effects, rather than selection effects, drive the positive space-time interactions for plant diversity effects. Importantly, we also demonstrate complex space-time interactions and nonlinear responses that emphasize how simple extrapolations from small-scale experiments are likely to underestimate biodiversity effects in real-world ecosystems. Quantitative scaling relationships from this research are a crucial step towards bridging controlled experiments that identify biological mechanisms across a range of scales. Predictions from scaling relationships like these could then be compared with observations for fine-tuning the relationships and ultimately improving their capacities to predict consequences of biodiversity loss for ecosystem functioning and services over longer time frames across real-world landscapes.

Urbanization significantly impacts the connectivity of soil microbes involved in nitrogen dynamics at a watershed scale.

As one of the most dominant ecosystems of urban green space, turfgrasses provide a wide range of ecosystem services. However, little is known about the interactions of microbial communities in turfgrass soils and how these interactions respond to expanding development of impervious surfaces during watershed urbanization. In this study, we analyzed bacterial communities and their co-occurrence patterns in turfgrass soils along an urbanization gradient as measured by the proportion of impervious surfaces in Jiulong River watershed in Fujian, China. Results show that the diversity and network size of bacterial communities negatively associated with impervious surfaces. The bacterial communities showed non-random co-occurrence patterns, with more intra-module connections observed for urbanized networks. The co-occurrence network with distinct modules of soil samples with contrasting land cover imperviousness suggested different functional organizations with altered microbial nitrogen processes. Structural equation modelling revealed that watershed impervious surfaces had indirect impacts on microbial connectivity by altering soil properties, including pH, temperature, moisture, C/N and nitrate (NO3-). Moreover, impervious surfaces affected microbial connectivity far more than human population density. Our study highlights the significance of human disturbances in affecting microbial interactions and assemblies in turfgrass ecosystems through impervious surfaces and provides benefits for sustainable urban planning and management at a watershed scale.

Comparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water quality using future watershed scenarios.

Eutrophication of freshwaters occurs in watersheds with excessive pollution of phosphorus (P). Factors that affect P cycling and transport, including climate and land use, are changing rapidly and can have legacy effects, making future freshwater quality uncertain. Focusing on the Yahara Watershed (YW) of southern Wisconsin, USA, an intensive agricultural landscape, we explored the relative influence of land use and climate on three indicators of water quality over a span of 57 years (2014-2070). The indicators included watershed-averaged P yield from the land surface, direct drainage P loads to a lake, and average summertime lake P concentration. Using biophysical model simulations of future watershed scenarios, we found that climate exerted a stronger influence than land use on all three indicators, yet land use had an important role in influencing long term outcomes for each. Variations in P yield due to land use exceeded those due to climate in 36 of 57 years, whereas variations in load and lake total P concentration due to climate exceeded those due to land use in 54 of 57 years, and 52 of 57 years, respectively. The effect of land use was thus strongest for P yield off the landscape and attenuated in the stream and lake aquatic systems where the influence of weather variability was greater. Overall these findings underscore the dominant role of climate in driving inter-annual nutrient fluxes within the hydrologic network and suggest a challenge for land use to influence water quality within streams and lakes over timescales less than a decade. Over longer timescales, reducing applications of P throughout the watershed was an effective management strategy under all four climates investigated, even during decades with wetter conditions and more frequent extreme precipitation events.

Reimagining the potential of Earth observations for ecosystem service assessments.

The benefits nature provides to people, called ecosystem services, are increasingly recognized and accounted for in assessments of infrastructure development, agricultural management, conservation prioritization, and sustainable sourcing. These assessments are often limited by data, however, a gap with tremendous potential to be filled through Earth observations (EO), which produce a variety of data across spatial and temporal extents and resolutions. Despite widespread recognition of this potential, in practice few ecosystem service studies use EO. Here, we identify challenges and opportunities to using EO in ecosystem service modeling and assessment. Some challenges are technical, related to data awareness, processing, and access. These challenges require systematic investment in model platforms and data management. Other challenges are more conceptual but still systemic; they are byproducts of the structure of existing ecosystem service models and addressing them requires scientific investment in solutions and tools applicable to a wide range of models and approaches. We also highlight new ways in which EO can be leveraged for ecosystem service assessments, identifying promising new areas of research. More widespread use of EO for ecosystem service assessment will only be achieved if all of these types of challenges are addressed. This will require non-traditional funding and partnering opportunities from private and public agencies to promote data exploration, sharing, and archiving. Investing in this integration will be reflected in better and more accurate ecosystem service assessments worldwide.

Evidence-Based Causal Chains for Linking Health, Development, and Conservation Actions.

Sustainability challenges for nature and people are complex and interconnected, such that effective solutions require approaches and a common theory of change that bridge disparate disciplines and sectors. Causal chains offer promising approaches to achieving an integrated understanding of how actions affect ecosystems, the goods and services they provide, and ultimately, human well-being. Although causal chains and their variants are common tools across disciplines, their use remains highly inconsistent, limiting their ability to support and create a shared evidence base for joint actions. In this article, we present the foundational concepts and guidance of causal chains linking disciplines and sectors that do not often intersect to elucidate the effects of actions on ecosystems and society. We further discuss considerations for establishing and implementing causal chains, including nonlinearity, trade-offs and synergies, heterogeneity, scale, and confounding factors. Finally, we highlight the science, practice, and policy implications of causal chains to address real-world linked human-nature challenges.

Cross-discipline evidence principles for sustainability policy.

Evidence-based approaches to sustainability challenges must draw on knowledge from the environment, development and health communities. To be practicable, this requires an approach to evidence that is broader and less hierarchical than the standards often applied within disciplines.

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive land-use changes and management may buffer water quality against undesirable future climate changes, but changing climate may overwhelm management efforts to sustain freshwater supply and flood regulation. Spatially, changes in ecosystem services were heterogeneous across the landscape, underscoring the power of local actions and fine-scale management. Our research highlights the value of embracing spatial and temporal perspectives in managing ecosystem services and their complex interactions, and provides a system-level understanding for achieving sustainability of the food-water-climate nexus in agricultural landscapes.

Historical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology.

Macrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space-time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are "expanding", "shrinking", "speeding up" and "slowing down" ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change.

Spatial interactions among ecosystem services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed.

Understanding spatial distributions, synergies, and tradeoffs of multiple ecosystem services (benefits people derive from ecosystems) remains challenging. We analyzed the supply of 10 ecosystem services for 2006 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) Where are areas of high and low supply of individual ecosystem services, and are these areas spatially concordant across services? (ii) Where on the landscape are the strongest tradeoffs and synergies among ecosystem services located? (iii) For ecosystem service pairs that experience tradeoffs, what distinguishes locations that are "win-win" exceptions from other locations? Spatial patterns of high supply for multiple ecosystem services often were not coincident; locations where six or more services were produced at high levels (upper 20th percentile) occupied only 3.3% of the landscape. Most relationships among ecosystem services were synergies, but tradeoffs occurred between crop production and water quality. Ecosystem services related to water quality and quantity separated into three different groups, indicating that management to sustain freshwater services along with other ecosystem services will not be simple. Despite overall tradeoffs between crop production and water quality, some locations were positive for both, suggesting that tradeoffs are not inevitable everywhere and might be ameliorated in some locations. Overall, we found that different areas of the landscape supplied different suites of ecosystem services, and their lack of spatial concordance suggests the importance of managing over large areas to sustain multiple ecosystem services.

Preliminary report on methane emissions from the Three Gorges Reservoir in the summer drainage period.

Recently reported summertime methane (CH4) emissions (6.7 +/- 13.3 mg CH4/(m2 x hr)) from newly created marshes in the drawdown area of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), China have triggered broad concern in academic circles and among the public. The CH4 emissions from TGR water surfaces and drawdown areas were monitored from 3rd June to 16th October 2010 with floating and static chambers and gas chromatography. The average CH4 emission flux from permanently flooded areas in Zigui, Wushan and Yunyang Counties was (0.33 +/- 0.09) mg CH4/(m2 x hr). In half of these hottest months of the year, the wilderness, cropland and deforested drawdown sites were aerobic and located above water level, and the CH4 emissions were very small, ranging from a sink at 0.12 mg CH4/(m2 x hr) to a source at 0.08 mg CH4/(m2 x hr) except for one mud-covered site after flood. Mean CH4 emission in flooded drawdown sites was 0.34 mg CH4/(m2 x hr). The emissions from the rice paddy sites in the drawdown area were averaged at (4.86 +/- 2.31) mg CH4/(m2 x hr). Excepting the rice-paddy sites, these results show much lower emission levels than previously reported. Our results indicated considerable spatial and temporal variation in CH4 emissions from the TGR. Human activities and occasional events, such as flood, may also affect emission levels. Long-term CH4 measurements and modeling in a large region are necessary to accurately estimate greenhouse gas emissions from the TGR.