The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK.

BACKGROUND: we project incidence and prevalence of stroke in the UK and associated costs to society to 2035. We include future costs of health care, social care, unpaid care and lost productivity, drawing on recent estimates that there are almost 1 million people living with stroke and the current cost of their care is £26 billion. METHODS: we developed a model to produce projections, building on earlier work to estimate the costs of stroke care by age, gender and other characteristics. Our cell-based simulation model uses the 2014-based Office for National Statistics population projections; future trends in incidence and prevalence rates of stroke derived from an expert consultation exercise; and data from the Office for Budget Responsibility on expected future changes in productivity and average earnings. RESULTS: between 2015 and 2035, the number of strokes in the UK per year is projected to increase by 60% and the number of stroke survivors is projected to more than double. Under current patterns of care, the societal cost is projected to almost treble in constant prices over the period. The greatest increase is projected to be in social care costs-both public and private-which we anticipate will rise by as much as 250% between 2015 and 2035. CONCLUSION: the costs of stroke care in the UK are expected to rise rapidly over the next two decades unless measures to prevent strokes and to reduce the disabling effects of strokes can be successfully developed and implemented.

An assessment of the cost-effectiveness of magnetic resonance, including diffusion-weighted imaging, in patients with transient ischaemic attack and minor stroke: a systematic review, meta-analysis and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Patients with transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke need rapid treatment of risk factors to prevent recurrent stroke. ABCD2 score or magnetic resonance diffusion-weighted brain imaging (MR DWI) may help assessment and treatment. OBJECTIVES: Is MR with DWI cost-effective in stroke prevention compared with computed tomography (CT) brain scanning in all patients, in specific subgroups or as 'one-stop' brain-carotid imaging? What is the current UK availability of services for stroke prevention? DATA SOURCES: Published literature; stroke registries, audit and randomised clinical trials; national databases; survey of UK clinical and imaging services for stroke; expert opinion. REVIEW METHODS: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of published/unpublished data. Decision-analytic model of stroke prevention including on a 20-year time horizon including nine representative imaging scenarios. RESULTS: The pooled recurrent stroke rate after TIA (53 studies, 30,558 patients) is 5.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9% to 5.9%] by 7 days, and 6.7% (5.2% to 8.7%) at 90 days. ABCD2 score does not identify patients with key stroke causes or identify mimics: 66% of specialist-diagnosed true TIAs and 35-41% of mimics had an ABCD2 score of ≥ 4; 20% of true TIAs with ABCD2 score of < 4 had key risk factors. MR DWI (45 studies, 9078 patients) showed an acute ischaemic lesion in 34.3% (95% CI 30.5% to 38.4%) of TIA, 69% of minor stroke patients, i.e. two-thirds of TIA patients are DWI negative. TIA mimics (16 studies, 14,542 patients) make up 40-45% of patients attending clinics. UK survey (45% response) showed most secondary prevention started prior to clinic, 85% of primary brain imaging was same-day CT; 51-54% of patients had MR, mostly additional to CT, on average 1 week later; 55% omitted blood-sensitive MR sequences. Compared with 'CT scan all patients' MR was more expensive and no more cost-effective, except for patients presenting at > 1 week after symptoms to diagnose haemorrhage; strategies that triaged patients with low ABCD2 scores for slow investigation or treated DWI-negative patients as non-TIA/minor stroke prevented fewer strokes and increased costs. 'One-stop' CT/MR angiographic-plus-brain imaging was not cost-effective. LIMITATIONS: Data on sensitivity/specificity of MR in TIA/minor stroke, stroke costs, prognosis of TIA mimics and accuracy of ABCD2 score by non-specialists are sparse or absent; all analysis had substantial heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Magnetic resonance with DWI is not cost-effective for secondary stroke prevention. MR was most helpful in patients presenting at > 1 week after symptoms if blood-sensitive sequences were used. ABCD2 score is unlikely to facilitate patient triage by non-stroke specialists. Rapid specialist assessment, CT brain scanning and identification of serious underlying stroke causes is the most cost-effective stroke prevention strategy. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Clinical and imaging services for TIA and minor stroke: results of two surveys of practice across the UK.

OBJECTIVES: Transient ischaemic attack (TIA) is a medical emergency requiring rapid access to effective, organised, stroke prevention. There are about 90 000 TIAs per year in the UK. We assessed whether stroke-prevention services in the UK meet Government targets. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: All UK clinical and imaging stroke-prevention services. INTERVENTION: Electronic structured survey delivered over the web with automatic recording of responses into a database; reminders to non-respondents. The survey sought information on clinic frequency, staff, case-mix, details of brain and carotid artery imaging, medical and surgical treatments. RESULTS: 114 stroke clinical and 146 imaging surveys were completed (both response rates 45%). Stroke-prevention services were available in most (97%) centres but only 31% operated 7 days/week. Half of the clinic referrals were TIA mimics, most patients (75%) were prescribed secondary prevention prior to clinic referral, and nurses performed the medical assessment in 28% of centres. CT was the most common and fastest first-line investigation; MR, used in 51% of centres, mostly after CT, was delayed up to 2 weeks in 26%; 51% of centres omitted blood-sensitive (GRE/T2*) MR sequences. Carotid imaging was with ultrasound in 95% of centres and 59% performed endarterectomy within 1 week of deciding to operate. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke-prevention services are widely available in the UK. Delays to MRI, its use in addition to CT while omitting key sequences to diagnose haemorrhage, limit the potential benefit of MRI in stroke prevention, but inflate costs. Assessing TIA mimics requires clinical neurology expertise yet nurses run 28% of clinics. Further improvements are still required for optimal stroke prevention.

Level and determinants of incentives for village midwives in Indonesia.

Since the early 1990s Indonesia has attempted to increase the level of skilled attendance at birth by placing rural midwives in every village in an effort to reduce persistently high levels of maternal mortality. Yet evidence suggests that there remains insufficient incentive to ensure an equal distribution across areas while the poor in all areas continue to access skilled attendance much less than those in richer groups. We report on a survey that was conducted as part of a complex evaluation of the rural midwife programme in Banten Province, to better understand the effect of financial incentives on the distribution of midwives and use of services. Midwives obtain almost two-thirds of their income from private clinical practice. Private income is strongly associated with competence and experience. Multivariate analysis suggests that midwives are well able to earn a substantial private income even in remoter areas. Yet the study also found a high level of unwillingness to move posts to a more remote area for a variety of non-financial reasons. The results suggest that the access to skilled attendance of those unable to afford fees may be impaired by the dependence on fee income, a result supported by companion household studies. In addition, ensuring that staff live and work in remoter areas is only likely to be financially sustainable if midwives can be attracted to live in these areas early in their careers. Finally, the overall strategy of basing skilled attendance mainly on village services throughout the country may need to be re-visited, with alternative models offered in areas where it continues to be impractical even with a change in the incentive framework.

Public funding for community-based skilled delivery care in Indonesia: to what extent are the poor benefiting?

Since the early 1990s, the Government of Indonesia has addressed high maternal mortality by attempting to ensure skilled attendance at delivery through access to trained village midwifery services in every village. Yet access to skilled services at delivery continues to prove problematic, with low levels of skilled attendance and high mortality. Making use of a funding flow analysis and population-based survey in two districts, we investigate to what extent funding allocated for maternal services enables access to skilled services by rich and poor households. The results suggest that, although resources reach remote poor areas, the poor obtain unequal access to skilled delivery services. Because rural midwives must earn a significant fraction of their income from private fees this acts to deter women from seeking their help. A new system of targeting poor women utilising the existing state insurance company (ASKES) is an important step in helping to reduce these barriers, but may not be sufficiently generous to protect all those that are considered vulnerable.