A probabilistic approach to chronic effects assessments for listed species in a vernal pool case study.

Ecological risk assessments for potential pesticide impacts on species listed as threatened or endangered must ensure that decisions to grant registration or establish water quality standards will not jeopardize species or their critical habitats. Pesticides are designed to affect pest species via physiological pathways that may be shared by some nontarget species for which toxicity data are usually unavailable, creating a need for robust methods to estimate acute and chronic toxicity with minimal data. We used a unique probabilistic approach to estimate the risk of chronic effects of two organophosphate (OP) pesticides on the vernal pool fairy shrimp Branchinecta lynchi. Acute toxicity estimates were derived from Monte Carlo (MC) sampling of acute toxicity distributions developed from interspecies relationships using surrogate species. Within each MC draw, acute values were divided by an acute to chronic ratio (ACR) sampled from a distribution of ACRs for OP pesticides and invertebrates, producing a distribution of chronic effects concentrations. The estimated exposure concentrations (EECs) were sampled from distributions representing different environmental conditions. Risk was characterized using probability distributions of acute toxicity, ACRs, and EECs in a probabilistic analysis, as well as partial probabilistic variations that used only some distributions whereas some variables were used deterministically. A deterministic risk quotient (RQ) was compared with the results of probabilistic methods to compare the approaches. Risk varied across exposure scenarios and the number of variables that were handled probabilistically, increasing as the number of variables drawn from distributions increased. The magnitude of RQs was not correlated with the probability that EECs would exceed chronic thresholds, and comparison of the two approaches demonstrates the limited interpretability of RQs. Our novel probabilistic approach to estimating chronic risk with minimal data incorporates uncertainty underlying both exposure and effects assessments for listed species. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-13. Published 2024. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Long-term, landscape-level assessment of aquatic pesticide exposure to identify amphibian ontological traits affecting vulnerability.

Amphibians worldwide are threatened by habitat loss, some of which is driven by a changing climate, as well as exposure to pesticides, among other causes. The timing and duration of the larval development phase vary between species, thereby influencing the relative impacts of stochastic hydroregime conditions as well as potential aquatic pesticide exposure. We describe the stages of breeding through metamorphosis for eight amphibian species, based on optimal hydroregime conditions, and use a model of pesticide fate and exposure representative of central Florida citrus groves to simulate hydrodynamics based on observed weather data over a 54-year period. Using the Pesticide in Water Calculator and Plant Assessment Tool, we estimated daily wetland depth and pyraclostrobin exposure, with label-recommended application quantities. Species' timing and duration of larval development determined the number of years of suitable hydroregime for breeding and the likelihood of exposure to peak aquatic concentrations of pyraclostrobin. Although the timing of pesticide application determined the number of surviving larvae, density-dependent constraints of wetland hydroregime also affected larval survival across species and seasons. Further defining categorical amphibian life history types and habitat requirements supports the development of screening-level assessments by incorporating environmental stochasticity at the appropriate temporal resolution. Subsequent refinement of these screening-level risk assessment strategies to include spatially explicit landscape data along with terrestrial exposure estimates would offer additional insights into species vulnerability to pesticide exposure throughout the life cycle. Computational simulation of ecologically relevant exposure scenarios, such as these, offers a more realistic interpretation of differential agrichemical risk among species based on their phenology and habits and provides a more situation-specific risk assessment perspective for threatened species. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-10. Published 2024. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Evaluation of Chronic Effects of Potassium Chloride and Nickel on Survival, Growth, and Reproduction of a Unionid Mussel (Lampsilis siliquoidea).

The ASTM International standard test method for freshwater mussels (E2455-13) recommends 4-week toxicity testing with juveniles to evaluate chronic effects on survival and growth. However, concerns remain that the method may not adequately address the sensitivity of mussels to longer term exposures (>4 weeks), particularly in relation to potential reproductive impairments. No standard method directly evaluates toxicant effects on mussel reproduction. The objectives of the present study were to (1) evaluate toxicity endpoints related to reproduction in fatmucket (Lampsilis siliquoidea) using two common reference toxicants, potassium chloride (KCl) and nickel (Ni); (2) evaluate the survival and growth of juvenile fatmucket in standard 4-week and longer term (12-week) KCl and Ni tests following a method refined from the standard method; and (3) compare the sensitivity of the reproductive endpoints with the endpoints obtained from the juvenile mussel tests. Reproductive toxicity tests were conducted by first exposing female fatmucket brooding mature larvae (glochidia) to five test concentrations of KCl and Ni for 6 weeks. Subsamples of the glochidia were then removed from the adults to determine three reproductive endpoints: (1) the viability of brooded glochidia; (2) the viability of free glochidia in a 24-h exposure to the same toxicant concentrations as their mother; and (3) the success of glochidia parasitism on host fish. Mean viability of brooded glochidia was significantly reduced in the high KCl concentration (26 mg K/L) relative to the control, with a 20% effect concentration (EC20) of 14 mg K/L, but there were no significant differences between the control and any Ni treatment (EC20 > 95 µg Ni/L). The EC20s for viability of free glochidia after the additional 24-h exposure and parasitism success were similar to the EC20s of brooded glochidia. The EC20s based on the most sensitive biomass endpoint in the 4-week juvenile tests were 15 mg K/L and 91 µg Ni/L, similar to or greater than the EC20s from the reproductive KCl and Ni tests, respectively. When exposure duration in the juvenile tests was extended from 4 to 12 weeks, the EC20s decreased by more than 50% in the KCl test but by only 8% in the Ni test. Overall, these results indicate that a standard 4-week test with juvenile mussels can prove effective for estimating effects in chronic exposures with different life stages although a longer term 12-week exposure with juvenile mussels may reveal higher sensitivity of mussels to some toxicants, such as KCl. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:1097-1111. © 2024 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Towards Precision Ecotoxicology: Leveraging Evolutionary Conservation of Pharmaceutical and Personal Care Product Targets to Understand Adverse Outcomes Across Species and Life Stages.

Translation of environmental science to the practice aims to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services, and our future ability to do so relies on the development of a precision ecotoxicology approach wherein we leverage the genetics and informatics of species to better understand and manage the risks of global pollution. A little over a decade ago, a workshop focusing on the risks of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in the environment identified a priority research question, "What can be learned about the evolutionary conservation of PPCP targets across species and life stages in the context of potential adverse outcomes and effects?" We review the activities in this area over the past decade, consider prospects of more recent developments, and identify future research needs to develop next-generation approaches for PPCPs and other global chemicals and waste challenges. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:526-536. © 2023 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Uncertainty analysis and updated user guidance for interspecies correlation estimation models and low toxicity compounds.

Interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models are log-linear relationships of acute sensitivity between two species that estimate the sensitivity of an untested species from the known sensitivity of a surrogate. As ICE model use increases globally, additional user guidance is required to ensure consistent use across chemicals and applications. The present study expands ICE uncertainty analyses and user guidance with a focus on low toxicity compounds whose acute values (i.e., reported as mg/L) can be greater than those used to develop a model. In these cases, surrogate values may be outside the ICE model domain and require additional extrapolations to predict acute toxicity. We use the extensive, standardized acute toxicity database underlying ICE models to broadly summarize inter-test variability of acute toxicity data as a measure by which model prediction accuracy can be evaluated. Using the data and models found on the USEPA Web-ICE (www3.epa.gov/webice), we created a set of "truncated" models from data corresponding to the lower 75th percentile of surrogate toxicity. We predicted toxicity for chemicals in the upper 25th percentile as both µg/L beyond the model domain and converted to mg/L (i.e., "scaled" value) and compared these predictions with those from cross-validation of whole ICE models and to the measured value. For ICE models with slopes in the range 0.66-1.33, prediction accuracy of scaled values did not differ from the accuracy of the models when data were entered as µg/L within or beyond the model domain. An uncertainty analysis of ICE confidence intervals was conducted and an interval range of two orders of magnitude was determined to minimize type I and II errors when accepting or rejecting ICE predictions. We updated the ICE user guidance based on these analyses to advance the state of the science for ICE model application and interpretation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-12. Published 2023. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Mechanistic population models for ecological risk assessment and decision support: The importance of good conceptual model diagrams.

The use of mechanistic population models as research and decision-support tools in ecology and ecological risk assessment (ERA) is increasing. This growth has been facilitated by advances in technology, allowing the simulation of more complex systems, as well as by standardized approaches for model development, documentation, and evaluation. Mechanistic population models are particularly useful for simulating complex systems, but the required model complexity can make them challenging to communicate. Conceptual diagrams that summarize key model elements, as well as elements that were considered but not included, can facilitate communication and understanding of models and increase their acceptance as decision-support tools. Currently, however, there are no consistent standards for creating or presenting conceptual model diagrams (CMDs), and both terminology and content vary widely. Here, we argue that greater consistency in CMD development and presentation is an important component of good modeling practice, and we provide recommendations, examples, and a free web app (pop-cmd.com) for achieving this for population models used for decision support in ERAs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-9. © 2023 SETAC.

A multi-scale approach for identification of potential pesticide use sites impacting vernal pool critical habitat in California.

Spatially explicit ecological risk assessment (ERA) requires estimating the overlap between chemical and receptor distribution to evaluate the potential impacts of exposure on nontarget organisms. Pesticide use estimation at field level is prone to error due to inconsistencies between ground-reporting and geospatial data coverage; attempts to rectify these inconsistencies have been limited in approach and rarely scaled to multiple crop types. We built upon a previously developed Bayesian approach to combine multiple crop types for a probabilistic determination of field-crop assignments and to examine co-occurrence of critical vernal pool habitats and bifenthrin application within a 5-county area in California (Madera, Merced, Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties). We incorporated a multi-scale repeated sampling approach with an area constraint to improve the delineation of field boundaries and better capture variability in crop assignments and rotation schemes. After comparing the accuracy of the spatial probabilistic approach to USDA Census of Agriculture crop acreage data, we found our approach allows more specificity in the combination of crop types represented by the potential application area and improves acreage estimates when compared to traditional deterministic approaches. In addition, our multi-scale sampling scheme improved estimates of bifenthrin acreage variability for co-occurrence analysis and allowed for estimates of crop rotations that were previously uncaptured. Our approach could be leveraged for more realistic, spatially resolved exposure and effects models both in and outside of California.

Investigating Vernal Pool Fairy Shrimp Exposure to Organophosphate Pesticides: Implications for Population-Level Risk Assessment.

Vernal pool fairy shrimp, Branchinecta lynchi, is a freshwater crustacean endemic to California and Oregon, including California's Central Valley. B. lynchi is listed as a Federally Threatened species under the US Endangered Species Act, and as a vulnerable species on the IUCN Red List. Threats that may negatively impact vernal pool fairy shrimp populations include pesticide applications to agricultural land use (e.g., agrochemicals such as organophosphate pesticides) and climate changes that impact vernal pool hydrology. Pop-GUIDE (Population model Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological risk assessment) is a comprehensive tool that facilitates development and implementation of population models for ecological risk assessment and can be used to document the model derivation process. We employed Pop-GUIDE to document and facilitate the development of a population model for investigating impacts of organophosphate pesticides on vernal pool fairy shrimp populations in California's Central Valley. The resulting model could be applied in combination with field assessment and laboratory-based chemical analysis to link effects from pesticide exposure to adverse outcomes in populations across their range. B. lynchi has a unique intra-annual life cycle that is largely dependent upon environmental conditions. Future deployment of this population model should include complex scenarios consisting of multiple stressors, whereby the model is used to examine scenarios that combine chemical stress resulting from exposure to pesticides and climate changes.

Comparison of coral reef communities in proximity to ocean effluent pipes off the north coast of Puerto Rico.

Coral reefs are declining globally as a result of multiple stressors, including land-based stressors, such as sedimentation and pollution, and those that are related to a changing climate, such as increases in ocean acidification. Degradation of US Caribbean coral reef biota has been associated with exposure to sewage effluent from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) maintains WWTPs on the north coast of Puerto Rico, which release effluent into the marine environment in the vicinity of coral reefs. Using data collected by PRASA surveys conducted from 1999 to 2013, we examined coral reef condition at survey sites to identify potential changes or differences in reefs with respect to their proximity to the WWTP effluent pipes (e.g., upstream, downstream). The proportion of coverage represented by all coral, sensitive taxa, and tolerant taxa were compared across sites located upstream and downstream of WWTP effluent pipes using multivariate approaches and analysis of variance. The proportion of healthy, sensitive coral species and invasive or tolerant coral species were not different at sites downstream of the WWTP effluent pipe compared to upstream. These results are caveated by the limited sampling design, highly variable communities across WWTP locations, and the sparsity or absence of well-developed coral reef communities at most stations. We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the survey design and provide recommendations for future coral reef surveys investigating potential impacts of WWTP effluent.

A QSAR-ICE-SSD model prediction of the PNECs for alkylphenol substances and application in ecological risk assessment for rivers of a megacity.

Alkylphenols (APs) are ubiquitous and generally present in higher residue levels in the environment. The present work focuses on the development of a set of in silico models to predict the aquatic toxicity of APs with incomplete/unknown toxicity data in aquatic environments. To achieve this, a QSAR-ICE-SSD model was constructed for aquatic organisms by combining quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR), interspecies correlation estimation (ICE), and species sensitivity distribution (SSD) models in order to obtain the hazardous concentrations (HCs) of selected APs. The research indicated that the keywords "alkylphenol" and "nonylphenol" were most commonly studied. The selected ICE models were robust (R2: 0.70-0.99; p-value < 0.01). All models had a high reliability cross- validation success rates (>75%), and the HC5 predicted with the QSAR-ICE-SSD model was 2-fold than that derived with measured experimental data. The HC5 values demonstrated nearly linear decreasing trend from 2-MP to 4-HTP, while the decreasing trend from 4-HTP to 4-DP became shallower, indicates that the toxicity of APs to aquatic organisms increases with the addition of alkyl carbon chain lengths. The ecological risks assessment (ERA) of APs revealed that aquatic organisms were at risk from exposure to 4-NP at most river stations (the highest risk quotient (RQ) = 1.51), with the highest relative risk associated with 2.9% of 4-NP detected in 82.9% of the sampling sites. The targeted APs posed potential ecological risks in the Yongding and Beiyun River according to the mixture ERA. The potential application of QSAR-ICE-SSD models could satisfy the immediate needs for HC5 derivations without the need for additional in vivo testing.

Relationships Between Aquatic Toxicity, Chemical Hydrophobicity, and Mode of Action: Log Kow Revisited.

Relationships between toxicity and chemical hydrophobicity have been known for nearly 100 years in mammals and fish, typically using the log of the octanol:water partition coefficient (Kow). The current study reassessed the influence of mode of action (MOA) on acute aquatic toxicity-log Kow relationships using a comprehensive database of 617 organic chemicals with curated and standardized acute toxicity data that did not exceed solubility limits, their consensus log Kow values, and weight of evidence-based MOA classifications (including 6 broad and 26 specific MOAs). A total of 166 significant (p < 0.05) log Kow-toxicity models were developed across six taxa groups that included QSARs for 5 of the broad and 13 of the specific MOAs. In this study, we demonstrate that QSARs based on MOAs can significantly increase LC50 prediction accuracy for specific acting chemicals. Prediction accuracy increases when QSARs are built based on highly specific MOAs, rather than broad MOA classifications. Additionally, we demonstrate that building QSAR models with chemicals in specific MOA groupings, rather than broader MOA groups leads to significantly better estimates. We also evaluated the differences between models developed from mass-based (µg/L) and mole-based (µmol/L) toxicity data and demonstrate that both are suitable for QSAR development with no clear trend in greater model accuracy. Overall, the results reveal that, despite high variance in all taxa and MOA groups, specific MOA-based models can improve the accuracy of aquatic toxicity predictions over more general groupings.Please check and confirm that the authors and their respective affiliations have been correctly identified and amend if necessary.The affiliations are correct.

Moving beyond Risk Quotients: Advancing Ecological Risk Assessment to Reflect Better, More Robust and Relevant Methods.

Under standard guidance for conducting Ecological Risk Assessments (ERAs), the risks of chemical exposure to diverse organisms are most often based on deterministic point estimates evaluated against safety-factor-based levels of concern (LOCs). While the science and guidance for mechanistic effect models (e.g., demographic, population, and agent-based) have long been demonstrated to provide more ecologically relevant effect endpoints upon which risk can be evaluated, their application in ERAs has been limited, particularly in the US. This special issue highlights the state of the science in effect modeling for ERAs through demonstrated application of the recently published Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for ERA (Pop-GUIDE). We introduce this issue with a perspective on why it is critical to move past the current application of deterministic endpoints and LOCs. We demonstrate how the current, widely used approaches contain extensive uncertainty that could be reduced considerably by applying models that account for species life histories and other important endogenous and exogenous factors critical to species sustainability. We emphasize that it is long past time to incorporate better, more robust, and ecologically relevant effect models into ERAs, particularly for chronic risk determination. The papers in this special issue demonstrate how mechanistic models that follow Pop-GUIDE better inform ERAs compared to the current standard practice.

Assessment of a New Approach Method for Grouped Chemical Hazard Estimation: The Toxicity-Normalized Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSDn).

New approach methods are being developed to address the challenges of reducing animal testing and assessing risks to the diversity of species in aquatic environments for the multitude of chemicals with minimal toxicity data. The toxicity-normalized species sensitivity distribution (SSDn) approach is a novel method for developing compound-specific hazard concentrations using data for toxicologically similar chemicals. This approach first develops an SSDn composed of acute toxicity values for multiple related chemicals that have been normalized by the sensitivity of a common species tested with each compound. A toxicity-normalized hazard concentration (HC5n) is then computed from the fifth percentile of the SSDn. Chemical-specific HC5 values are determined by back-calculating the HC5n using the chemical-specific sensitivity of the normalization species. A comparison of the SSDn approach with the single-chemical SSD method was conducted by using data for nine transition metals to generate and compare HC5 values between the two methods. We identified several guiding principles for this method that, when applied, resulted in accurate HC5 values based on comparisons with results from single-metal SSDs. The SSDn approach shows promise for developing statistically robust hazard concentrations when adequate taxonomic representation is not available for a single chemical.

A biological condition gradient for Caribbean coral reefs: Part II. Numeric rules using sessile benthic organisms.

The Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) is a conceptual model used to describe incremental changes in biological condition along a gradient of increasing anthropogenic stress. As coral reefs collapse globally, scientists and managers are focused on how to sustain the crucial structure and functions, and the benefits that healthy coral reef ecosystems provide for many economies and societies. We developed a numeric (quantitative) BGC model for the coral reefs of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands to transparently facilitate ecologically meaningful management decisions regarding these fragile resources. Here, reef conditions range from natural, undisturbed conditions to severely altered or degraded conditions. Numeric decision rules were developed by an expert panel for scleractinian corals and other benthic assemblages using multiple attributes to apply in shallow-water tropical fore reefs with depths <30 m. The numeric model employed decision rules based on metrics (e.g., % live coral cover, coral species richness, pollution-sensitive coral species, unproductive and sediment substrates, % cover by Orbicella spp.) used to assess coral reef condition. Model confirmation showed the numeric BCG model predicted the panel's median site ratings for 84% of the sites used to calibrate the model and 89% of independent validation sites. The numeric BCG model is suitable for adaptive management applications and supports bioassessment and criteria development. It is a robust assessment tool that could be used to establish ecosystem condition that would aid resource managers in evaluating and communicating current or changing conditions, protect water and habitat quality in areas of high biological integrity, or develop restoration goals with stakeholders and other public beneficiaries.

Using metabolomic profiling to inform use of surrogate species in ecological risk assessment practices.

The U.S. EPA frequently uses avian or fish toxicity data to set protective standards for amphibians in ecological risk assessments. However, this approach does not always adequately represent aquatic-dwelling and terrestrial-phase amphibian exposure data. For instance, it is accepted that early life stage tests for fish are typically sensitive enough to protect larval amphibians, however, metamorphosis from tadpole to a terrestrial-phase adult relies on endocrine cues that are less prevalent in fish but essential for amphibian life stage transitions. These differences suggest that more robust approaches are needed to adequately elucidate the impacts of pesticide exposure in amphibians across critical life stages. Therefore, in the current study, methodology is presented that can be applied to link the perturbations in the metabolomic response of larval zebrafish (Danio rerio), a surrogate species frequently used in ecotoxicological studies, to those of African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis) tadpoles following exposure to three high-use pesticides, bifenthrin, chlorothalonil, or trifluralin. Generally, D. rerio exhibited greater metabolic perturbations in both number and magnitude across the pesticide exposures as opposed to X. laevis. This suggests that screening ecological risk assessment surrogate toxicity data would sufficiently protect amphibians at the single life stage studied but care needs to be taken to understand the suite of metabolic requirements of each developing species. Ultimately, methodology presented, and data gathered herein will help inform the applicability of metabolomic profiling in establishing the risk pesticide exposure poses to amphibians and potentially other non-target species.

Microplastic ingestion by coral as a function of the interaction between calyx and microplastic size.

Coral reefs have been heavily impacted by anthropogenic stressors, such as global warming, ocean acidification, sedimentation, and nutrients. Recently, microplastics (MP) have emerged as another potential stressor that may also cause adverse impacts to coral. MP ingestion by scleractinian coral among four species, Acropora cervicornis, Montastraea cavernosa, Orbicella faveolata, and Pseudodiploria clivosa, was used to identify the relationship between calyx and MP size as it pertains to active coral ingestion. A range of MP sizes (0.231-2.60 mm) were offered to the coral species across a wide range of calyx sizes (1.33-4.84 mm). Laboratory data showed that as the mean calyx size increased, so too did the mean percent of ingestion with increasing MP size. From laboratory data, a logistic model was developed to extrapolate the range of MP sizes that can be actively ingested by coral species based on calyx size. The data and model presented here offer the first predictive approach that can be used to determine the range of MP sizes that have a high likelihood of being actively ingested by coral of various sizes, thus offering insight to possible impacts on scleractinian coral.

A biological condition gradient for coral reefs in the US Caribbean Territories: Part I. Coral narrative rules.

As coral reef condition and sustainability continue to decline worldwide, losses of critical habitat and their ecosystem services have generated an urgency to understand and communicate reef response to management actions, environmental contamination, and natural disasters. Increasingly, coral reef protection and restoration programs emphasize the need for robust assessment tools for protecting high-quality waters and establishing conservation goals. Of equal importance is the need to communicate assessment results to stakeholders, beneficiaries, and the public so that environmental consequences of decisions are understood. The Biological Condition (BCG) model provides a structure to evaluate the condition of a coral reef in increments of change along a gradient of human disturbance. Communication of incremental change, regardless of direction, is important for decision makers and the public to better understand what is gained or lost depending on what actions are taken. We developed a narrative (qualitative) Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) from the consensus of a diverse expert panel to provide a framework for coral reefs in US Caribbean Territories. The model uses narrative descriptions of biological attributes for benthic organisms to evaluate reefs relative to undisturbed or minimally disturbed conditions. Using expert elicitation, narrative decision rules were proposed and deliberated to discriminate among six levels of change along a gradient of increasing anthropogenic stress. Narrative rules for each of the BCG levels are presented to facilitate the evaluation of benthic communities in coral reefs and provide specific narrative features to detect changes in coral reef condition and biological integrity. The BCG model can be used in the absence of numeric, or quantitative metrics, to evaluate actions that may encroach on coral reef ecosystems, manage endangered species habitat, and develop and implement management plans for marine protected areas, watersheds, and coastal zones. The narrative BCG model is a defensible model and communication tool that translates scientific results so the nontechnical person can understand and support both regulatory and non-regulatory water quality and natural resource programs.

Pop-guide: Population modeling guidance, use, interpretation, and development for ecological risk assessment.

The assimilation of population models into ecological risk assessment (ERA) has been hindered by their range of complexity, uncertainty, resource investment, and data availability. Likewise, ensuring that the models address risk assessment objectives has been challenging. Recent research efforts have begun to tackle these challenges by creating an integrated modeling framework and decision guide to aid the development of population models with respect to ERA objectives and data availability. In the framework, the trade-offs associated with the generality, realism, and precision of an assessment are used to guide the development of a population model commensurate with the protection goal. The decision guide provides risk assessors with a stepwise process to assist them in developing a conceptual model that is appropriate for the assessment objective and available data. We have merged the decision guide and modeling framework into a comprehensive approach, Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological risk assessment (Pop-GUIDE), for the development of population models for ERA that is applicable across regulatory statutes and assessment objectives. In Phase 1 of Pop-GUIDE, assessors are guided through the trade-offs of ERA generality, realism, and precision, which are translated into model objectives. In Phase 2, available data are assimilated and characterized as general, realistic, and/or precise. Phase 3 provides a series of dichotomous questions to guide development of a conceptual model that matches the complexity and uncertainty appropriate for the assessment that is in concordance with the available data. This phase guides model developers and users to ensure consistency and transparency of the modeling process. We introduce Pop-GUIDE as the most comprehensive guidance for population model development provided to date and demonstrate its use through case studies using fish as an example taxon and the US Federal Insecticide Fungicide and Rodenticide Act and Endangered Species Act as example regulatory statutes. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:767-784. © 2020 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Cross-Taxa Distinctions in Mechanisms of Developmental Effects for Aquatic Species Exposed to Trifluralin.

Standard ecological risk assessment practices often rely on larval and juvenile fish toxicity data as representative of the amphibian aquatic phase. Empirical evidence suggests that endpoints measured in fish early life stage tests are often sufficient to protect larval amphibians. However, the process of amphibian metamorphosis relies on endocrine cues that affect development and morphological restructuring and are not represented by these test endpoints. The present study compares developmental endpoints for zebrafish (Danio rerio) and the African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), 2 standard test species, exposed to the herbicide trifluralin throughout the larval period. Danio rerio were more sensitive and demonstrated a reduction in growth measurements with increasing trifluralin exposure. Size of X. laevis at metamorphosis was not correlated with exposure concentration; however, time to metamorphosis was delayed relative to trifluralin concentration. Gene expression patterns indicate discrepancies in response by D. rerio and X. laevis, and dose-dependent metabolic activity suggests that trifluralin exposure perturbed biological pathways differently within the 2 species. Although many metabolites were correlated with exposure concentration in D. rerio, nontargeted hepatic metabolomics identified a subset of metabolites that exhibited a nonmonotonic response to trifluralin exposure in X. laevis. Linking taxonomic distinctions in cellular-level response with ecologically relevant endpoints will refine assumptions used in interspecies extrapolation of standard test effects and improve assessment of sublethal impacts on amphibian populations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:1797-1812. Published 2020. This article is a US government work and is in the public domain in the USA.