Developing Acute Event Risk Profiles for Older Adults with Dementia in Long-Term Care Using Motor Behavior Clusters Derived from Deep Learning.

OBJECTIVES: This paper uses deep (machine) learning techniques to develop and test how motor behaviors, derived from location and movement sensor tracking data, may be associated with falls, delirium, and urinary tract infections (UTIs) in long-term care (LTC) residents. DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 23 LTC residents (81,323 observations) with cognitive impairment or dementia in 2 northeast Department of Veterans Affairs LTC facilities. METHODS: More than 18 months of continuous (24/7) monitoring of motor behavior and activity levels used objective radiofrequency identification sensor data to track and record movement data. Occurrence of acute events was recorded each week. Unsupervised deep learning models were used to classify motor behaviors into 5 clusters; supervised decision tree algorithms used these clusters to predict acute health events (falls, delirium, and UTIs) the week before the week of the event. RESULTS: Motor behaviors were classified into 5 categories (Silhouette score = 0.67), and these were significantly different from each other. Motor behavior classifications were sensitive and specific to falls, delirium, and UTI predictions 1 week before the week of the event (sensitivity range = 0.88-0.91; specificity range = 0.71-0.88). CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Intraindividual changes in motor behaviors predict some of the most common and detrimental acute events in LTC populations. Study findings suggest real-time locating system sensor data and machine learning techniques may be used in clinical applications to effectively prevent falls and lead to the earlier recognition of risk for delirium and UTIs in this vulnerable population.

Predicting Progression Patterns of Type 2 Diabetes using Multi-sensor Measurements.

Type 2 diabetes - a prevalent chronic disease worldwide - increases risk for serious health consequences including heart and kidney disease. Forecasting diabetes progression can inform disease management strategies, thereby potentially reducing the likelihood or severity of its consequences. We use continuous glucose monitoring and actigraphy data from 54 individuals with Type 2 diabetes to predict their future hemoglobin A1c, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and triglyceride levels one year later. We use a combination of convolutional and recurrent neural networks to develop a deep neural network architecture that can learn the dynamic patterns in different sensors' data and combine those patterns with additional demographic and lab data. To further demonstrate the generalizability of our models, we also evaluate their performance using an independent public dataset of individuals with Type 1 diabetes. In addition to diabetes, our approach could be useful for other serious and chronic physical illness, where dynamic (e.g., from multiple sensors) and static (e.g., demographic) data are used for creating predictive models.