ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Ending AIDS by 2030 requires improvements across all stages of the HIV care continuum. We used a longitudinal approach to assess changes in the HIV care continuum in Spain and transition probabilities across different stages. METHODS: We used data from the prospective Cohort of the Spanish HIV/AIDS Research Network to analyse the time from diagnosis to linkage to care, linkage to care to antiretroviral therapy (ART), and ART to viral suppression in five calendar periods defined by milestones in ART, from 2005 to 2022. We used the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard models to estimate cumulative probabilities of stage transition within 1, 3, 6, and 12 months of stage eligibility, by period. FINDINGS: We included 18 529 participants. Comparing the initial (2005-09) and final (2020-22) periods, time to linkage to care decreased from a median of 6·0 weeks to 1·3 weeks, time to ART initiation from 15·9 weeks to 0·4 weeks, and time to viral suppression from 13·3 weeks to 7·1 weeks. Adjusted hazard ratios for the comparison between the last period and the initial period were 3·1 (95% CI 2·8-3·4) for linkage to care within 1 month, 11·4 (10·1-12·3) for ART initiation within 1 month, and 2·2 (1·2-2·4) for viral suppression within 3 months. The aggregate proportion of late diagnoses was 38·6%, increasing after 2012 to 46·4% in the 2020-22 period. Same-day ART initiation increased from 18% to 39% from 2005 to 2022. The overall incidence rate of virological failure was 1·05 failures per 1000 person-years and showed a non-significant decline throughout the study. INTERPRETATION: The great improvement in transition times through the HIV care cascade might put Spain on the verge of achieving the UNAIDS targets for HIV elimination. However, late diagnosis remains a challenge that should be addressed. FUNDING: Instituto de Salud Carlos III and Spanish AIDS Research Network.
ABSTRACT
People with HIV have a higher risk of fracture than the general population. Because of the low performance of the existing prediction tools, there is controversy surrounding fracture risk estimation in this population. The aim of the study was to develop a model for predicting the long-term risk of fragility fractures in people with HIV. We included 11,899 individuals aged ≥30 years from the Spanish HIV/AIDS research network cohort. We identified incident fragility fractures from medical records, defined as nontraumatic or those occurring after a casual fall, at major osteoporotic sites (hip, clinical spine, forearm, proximal humerus). Our model accounted for the competing risk of death and included 12 candidate predictors to estimate the time to first fragility fracture. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the model and compared it with the FRAX tool. The incidence rate of fragility fractures was 4.34 (95% CI 3.61 to 5.22) per 1000 person-years. The final prediction model included age, chronic kidney disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as significant predictors. The model accurately predicted the 5- and 10-year risk of fragility fractures, with an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve of 0.768 (95% CI 0.722 to 0.814) and agreement between the observed and expected probabilities. Furthermore, it demonstrated better discrimination and calibration than the FRAX tool, improving the classification of over 35% of individuals with fragility fractures compared to FRAX. Our prediction model demonstrated accuracy in predicting the long-term risk of fragility fractures. It can assist in making personalized intervention decisions for individuals with HIV and could potentially replace the current tools recommended for fracture risk assessment in this population. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).
