Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System.

The Northern Humboldt Current System sustains one of the most productive fisheries in the world. However, climate change is anticipated to negatively affect fish production in this region over the next few decades, and detailed analyses for many fishery resources are unavailable. We implemented a trait-based Climate Vulnerability Assessment based on expert elicitation to estimate the relative vulnerability of 28 fishery resources (benthic, demersal, and pelagic) to the impacts of climate change by 2055; ten exposure factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, pH, chlorophyll) and 13 sensitivity attributes (biological and population-level traits) were used. Nearly 36% of the species assessed had "high" or "very high" vulnerability. Benthic species were ranked the most vulnerable (gastropod and bivalve species). The pelagic group was the second most vulnerable; the Pacific chub mackerel and the yellowfin tuna were amongst the most vulnerable pelagic species. The demersal group had the relatively lowest vulnerability. This study allowed identification of vulnerable fishery resources, research and monitoring priorities, and identification of the key exposure factors and sensitivity attributes which are driving that vulnerability. Our findings can help fishery managers incorporate climate change into harvest level and allocation decisions, and assist stakeholders plan for and adapt to a changing future.

Population genetic signatures of a climate change driven marine range extension.

Shifts in species distribution, or 'range shifts', are one of the most commonly documented responses to ocean warming, with important consequences for the function and structure of ecosystems, and for socio-economic activities. Understanding the genetic signatures of range shifts can help build our knowledge of the capacity of species to establish and persist in colonised areas. Here, seven microsatellite loci were used to examine the population connectivity, genetic structure and diversity of Octopus tetricus, which has extended its distribution several hundred kilometres polewards associated with the southwards extension of the warm East Australian Current along south-eastern Australia. The historical distribution and the range extension zones had significant genetic differences but levels of genetic diversity were comparable. The population in the range extension zone was sub-structured, contained relatively high levels of self-recruitment and was sourced by migrants from along the entire geographic distribution. Genetic bottlenecks and changes in population size were detected throughout the range extension axis. Persistent gene flow from throughout the historical zone and moderate genetic diversity may buffer the genetic bottlenecks and favour the range extension of O. tetricus. These characteristics may aid adaptation, establishment, and long-term persistence of the population in the range extension zone.

Treatment of atrial fibrillation in patients with enhanced sympathetic tone by pulmonary vein isolation or pulmonary vein isolation and renal artery denervation: clinical background and study design : The ASAF trial: ablation of sympathetic atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is an important, modifiable risk factor for the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). Even after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI), 20-40% experience recurrent AF. Animal studies have shown that renal denervation (RDN) reduces AF inducibility. One clinical study with important limitations suggested that RDN additional to PVI could reduce recurrent AF. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this multicenter randomized controlled study is to investigate whether RDN added to PVI reduces AF recurrence. METHODS: The main end point is the time until first AF recurrence according to EHRA guidelines after a blanking period of 3 months. Assuming a 12-month accrual period and 12 months of follow-up, a power of 0.80, a two-sided alpha of 0.05 and an expected drop-out of 10% per group, 69 patients per group are required. We plan to randomize a total of 138 hypertensive patients with AF and signs of sympathetic overdrive in a 1:1 fashion. Patients should use at least two antihypertensive drugs. Sympathetic overdrive includes obesity, exercise-induced excessive blood pressure (BP) increase, significant white coat hypertension, hospital admission or fever induced AF, tachycardia induced AF and diabetes mellitus. The interventional group will undergo PVI + RDN and the control group will undergo PVI. RESULTS: Patients will have follow-up for 1 year, and continuous loop monitoring is advocated. CONCLUSION: This randomized, controlled study will elucidate if RDN on top of PVI reduces AF recurrence.

Body size, growth and life span: implications for the polewards range shift of Octopus tetricus in south-eastern Australia.

Understanding the response of any species to climate change can be challenging. However, in short-lived species the faster turnover of generations may facilitate the examination of responses associated with longer-term environmental change. Octopus tetricus, a commercially important species, has undergone a recent polewards range shift in the coastal waters of south-eastern Australia, thought to be associated with the southerly extension of the warm East Australian Current. At the cooler temperatures of a polewards distribution limit, growth of a species could be slower, potentially leading to a bigger body size and resulting in a slower population turnover, affecting population viability at the extreme of the distribution. Growth rates, body size, and life span of O. tetricus were examined at the leading edge of a polewards range shift in Tasmanian waters (40°S and 147°E) throughout 2011. Octopus tetricus had a relatively small body size and short lifespan of approximately 11 months that, despite cooler temperatures, would allow a high rate of population turnover and may facilitate the population increase necessary for successful establishment in the new extended area of the range. Temperature, food availability and gender appear to influence growth rate. Individuals that hatched during cooler and more productive conditions, but grew during warming conditions, exhibited faster growth rates and reached smaller body sizes than individuals that hatched into warmer waters but grew during cooling conditions. This study suggests that fast growth, small body size and associated rapid population turnover may facilitate the range shift of O. tetricus into Tasmanian waters.

Environmental effects on cephalopod population dynamics: implications for management of fisheries.

Cephalopods are a relatively small class of molluscs (~800 species), but they support some large industrial scale fisheries and numerous small-scale, local, artisanal fisheries. For several decades, landings of cephalopods globally have grown against a background of total finfish landings levelling off and then declining. There is now evidence that in recent years, growth in cephalopod landings has declined. The commercially exploited cephalopod species are fast-growing, short-lived ecological opportunists. Annual variability in abundance is strongly influenced by environmental variability, but the underlying causes of the links between environment and population dynamics are poorly understood. Stock assessment models have recently been developed that incorporate environmental processes that drive variability in recruitment, distribution and migration patterns. These models can be expected to improve as more, and better, data are obtained on environmental effects and as techniques for stock identification improve. A key element of future progress will be improved understanding of trophic dynamics at all phases in the cephalopod life cycle. In the meantime, there is no routine stock assessment in many targeted fisheries or in the numerous by-catch fisheries for cephalopods. There is a particular need for a precautionary approach in these cases. Assessment in many fisheries is complicated because cephalopods are ecological opportunists and stocks appear to have benefited from the reduction of key predator by overexploitation. Because of the complexities involved, ecosystem-based fisheries management integrating social, economic and ecological considerations is desirable for cephalopod fisheries. An ecological approach to management is routine in many fisheries, but to be effective, good scientific understanding of the relationships between the environment, trophic dynamics and population dynamics is essential. Fisheries and the ecosystems they depend on can only be managed by regulating the activities of the fishing industry, and this requires understanding the dynamics of the stocks they exploit.