Sri Lanka's COVID-19 response and maintaining health services: implications for future pandemics.

This study examines how Sri Lanka, a lower-middle income country, managed its COVID-19 response and maintained health services. It draws on an extensive document review, key informant interviews and a national survey of public experience and opinion to assess what Sri Lanka did, its effectiveness and why.Owing to a strong health system and luck, Sri Lanka stopped the first wave of COVID-19 infections, and it adopted a 'Zero-COVID' approach with the explicit goal of stopping outbreaks. This was initially effective. Outbreaks reduced healthcare use, but with minimal impact on health outcomes. But from end-2020, Sri Lanka switched its approach to tolerating transmission and mitigation. It took proactive actions to maintain healthcare access, and it pursued a COVID-19 vaccination effort that was successful in covering its adult population rapidly and with minimal disparities. Despite this, widespread transmission during 2021-2022 disrupted health services through the pressure on health facilities of patients with COVID-19 and infection of healthcare workers, and because COVID-19 anxiety discouraged patients from seeking healthcare. This led to substantial mortality and more than 30 000 excess deaths by 2022.We find that Sri Lanka abandoned its initially successful approach, because it failed to understand that its chosen strategy required symptomatic PCR testing in primary care. Failure to invest in testing was compounded by groupthink and a medical culture averse to testing.Sri Lanka's experience confirms that strong public health capacities, robust healthcare systems and intersectoral action are critical for pandemic response. It shows that civilian-military collaboration can be beneficial but contested, and that lack of fiscal space will undermine any response. It also demonstrates that pandemic preparedness cannot guarantee a successful pandemic response. Policy and research must pay more attention to improving decision-making processes when faced with pandemics involving novel pathogens, rapid spread, and substantial scientific uncertainty.

Prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in Sri Lanka: a new global hotspot-estimates from the Sri Lanka Health and Ageing Survey 2018/2019.

INTRODUCTION: This study's objective was to produce robust, comparable estimates of the prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in the Sri Lankan adult population, where previous studies suggest the highest prevalence in South Asia. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data on 6661 adults from the nationally representative 2018/2019 first wave of the Sri Lanka Health and Ageing Study (SLHAS). We classified glycemic status based on previous diabetes diagnosis, and either fasting plasma glucose (FPG), or FPG and 2-hour plasma glucose (2-h PG). We estimated crude and age-standardized prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes and by major individual characteristics weighting the data to account for study design and subject participation. RESULTS: Crude prevalence of diabetes in adults was 23.0% (95% CI 21.2% to 24.7%) using both 2-h PG and FPG, and age-standardized prevalence was 21.8% (95% CI 20.1% to 23.5%). Using only FPG, prevalence was 18.5% (95% CI 7.1% to 19.8%). Previously diagnosed prevalence was 14.3% (95% CI 13.1% to 15.5%) of all adults. The prevalence of pre-diabetes was 30.5% (95% CI 28.2% to 32.7%). Diabetes prevalence increased with age until ages ≥70 years and was more prevalent in female, urban, more affluent, and Muslim adults. Diabetes and pre-diabetes prevalence increased with body mass index (BMI) but was as high as 21% and 29%, respectively, in those of normal weight. CONCLUSIONS: Study limitations included using only a single visit to assess diabetes, relying on self-reported fasting times, and unavailability of glycated hemoglobin for most participants. Our results indicate that Sri Lanka has a very high diabetes prevalence, significantly higher than previous estimates of 8%-15% and higher than current global estimates for any other Asian country. Our results have implications for other populations of South Asian origin, and the high prevalence of diabetes and dysglycemia at normal body weight indicates the need for further research to understand the underlying drivers.

Effects of a lifestyle intervention programme after 1 year of follow-up among South Asians at high risk of type 2 diabetes: a cluster randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: South Asians are at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). We assessed whether intensive family-based lifestyle intervention leads to significant weight loss, improved glycaemia and blood pressure in adults at elevated risk for T2D. METHODS: This cluster randomised controlled trial (iHealth-T2D) was conducted at 120 locations across India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the UK. We included 3684 South Asian men and women, aged 40-70 years, without T2D but with raised haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and/or waist circumference. Participants were randomly allocated either to the family-based lifestyle intervention or control group by location clusters. Participants in the intervention received 9 visits and 13 telephone contacts by community health workers over 1-year period, and the control group received usual care. Reductions in weight (aim >7% reduction), waist circumference (aim ≥5 cm reduction), blood pressure and HbA1C at 12 months of follow-up were assessed. Our linear mixed-effects regression analysis was based on intention-to-treat principle and adjusted for age, sex and baseline values. RESULTS: There were 1846 participants in the control and 1838 in the intervention group. Between baseline and 12 months, mean weight of participants in the intervention group reduced by 1.8 kg compared with 0.4 kg in the control group (adjusted mean difference -1.10 kg (95% CI -1.70 to -1.06), p<0.001). The adjusted mean difference for waist circumference was -1.9 cm (95% CI -2.5; to 1.3), p<0.001). No overall difference was observed for blood pressure or HbA1c. People who attended multiple intervention sessions had a dose-dependent effect on waist circumference, blood pressure and HbA1c, but not on weight. CONCLUSION: An intensive family-based lifestyle intervention adopting low-resource strategies led to effective reduction in weight and waist circumference at 12 months, which has potential long-term benefits for preventing T2D. A higher number of attended sessions increased the effect on waist circumference, blood pressure and HbA1c. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: EudraCT: 2016-001350-18; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02949739.

Increased Intensity Of PCR Testing Reduced COVID-19 Transmission Within Countries During The First Pandemic Wave.

Experts agree that reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing is critical in controlling coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but decision makers disagree on how much testing is optimal. Controlling for interventions and ecological factors, we used linear regression to quantify testing's impact on COVID-19's average reproduction number, which represents transmissibility, in 173 countries and territories (which account for 99 percent of the world's COVID-19 cases) during March-June 2020. Among interventions, PCR testing had the greatest influence: a tenfold increase in the ratio of tests to new cases reported reduced the average reproduction number by 9 percent across a range of testing levels. Our results imply that mobility reductions (for example, shelter-in-place orders) were less effective in developing countries than in developed countries. Our results help explain how some nations achieved near-elimination of COVID-19 and the failure of lockdowns to slow COVID-19 in others. Our findings suggest that the testing benchmarks used by the World Health Organization and other entities are insufficient for COVID-19 control. Increased testing and isolation may represent the most effective, least costly alternative in terms of money, economic growth, and human life for controlling COVID-19.