A Regional Study to Evaluate the Impact of Coal-fired Power Plants on Lung Cancer Incident Rates.

Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer related deaths. In Kansas, where coal-fired power plants account for 34% of power, we investigated whether hosting counties had higher age-adjusted lung cancer incidence rates. We also examined demographics, poverty levels, percentage of smokers, and environmental conditions using spatial analysis. Methods: Data from the Kansas Health Matters, and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2010-2014) for 105 counties in Kansas were analyzed. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) assessed associations between potential risk factors and age-adjusted lung cancer incidence rates while Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) examined regional risk factors. Results: Moran's I test confirmed spatial autocorrelation in age-adjusted lung cancer incidence rates (p<0.0003). MLR identified percentage of smokers, population size, and proportion of elderly population as significant predictors of age-adjusted lung cancer incidence rates (p<0.05). GWR showed positive associations between percentage of smokers and age-adjusted lung cancer incidence rates in over 50% of counties. Conclusion: Contrary to our hypothesis, proximity to a coal-fired power plant was not a significant predictor of age-adjusted lung cancer incidence rates. Instead, percentage of smokers emerged as a consistent global and regional risk factor. Regional lung cancer outcomes in Kansas are influenced by wind patterns and elderly population.

Evaluating the impact of delayed study startup on accrual in cancer studies.

Background: Drug development in cancer medicine depends on high-quality clinical trials, but these require large investments of time to design, operationalize, and complete; for oncology drugs, this can take 8-10 years. Long timelines are expensive and delay innovative therapies from reaching patients. Delays often arise from study startup, a process that can take 6 months or more. We assessed how study-specific factors affected the study startup duration and the resulting overall success of the study. Method: Data from The University of Kansas Cancer Center (KUCC) were used to analyze studies initiated from 2018 to 2022. Accrual percentage was computed based on the number of enrolled participants and the desired enrollment goal. Accrual success was determined by comparing the percentage of enrollments to predetermined threshold values (50%, 70%, or 90%). Results: Studies that achieve or surpass the 70% activation threshold typically exhibit a median activation time of 140.5 days. In contrast, studies that fall short of the accrual goal tend to have a median activation time of 187 days, demonstrating the shorter median activation times associated with successful studies. Wilcoxon rank-sum test conducted for the study phase (W=13607, p-value=0.001) indicates that late-phase projects took longer to activate compared to early-stage projects. We also conducted the study with 50% and 90% accrual thresholds; our findings remained consistent. Conclusions: Longer activation times are linked to reduced project success, and early-phase studies tend to have higher success than late-phase studies. Therefore, by reducing impediments to the approval process, we can facilitate quicker approvals, increasing the success of studies regardless of phase.

An R Shiny Application (SDOH) for Predictive Modeling Using Regional Social Determinants of Health Survey Responses.

Social determinants of health (SDoH) surveys are data sets that provide useful health-related information about individuals and communities. This study aims to develop a user-friendly web application that allows clinicians to get a predictive insight into the social needs of their patients before their in-patient visits using SDoH survey data to provide an improved and personalized service. The study used a longitudinal survey that consisted of 108,563 patient responses to 12 questions. Questions were designed to have a binary outcome as the response and the patient's most recent responses for each of these questions were modeled independently by incorporating explanatory variables. Multiple classification and regression techniques were used, including logistic regression, Bayesian generalized linear model, extreme gradient boosting, gradient boosting, neural networks, and random forests. Based on the area under the curve values, gradient boosting models provided the highest precision values. Finally, the models were incorporated into an R Shiny application, enabling users to predict and compare the impact of SDoH on patients' lives. The tool is freely hosted online by the University of Kansas Medical Center's Department of Biostatistics and Data Science. The supporting materials for the application are publicly accessible on GitHub.

Rurality Impacts Mammography Screening Adherence Among Mid-life Women in the Kansas Region.

OBJECTIVE: The gold standard for breast cancer screening and prevention is regular mammography; thus, understanding what impacts adherence to this standard is essential in limiting cancer-associated costs. We assessed the impact of various understudied sociodemographic factors of interest on adherence to the receipt of regular mammograms. METHODS: A total Nc = 14,553 mammography-related claims from Nw = 6,336 female Kansas aged between 45 and 54 were utilized from insurance claim databases furnished by multiple providers. Adherence to regular mammography was quantified continuously via a compliance ratio, used to capture the number of eligible years in which at least one mammogram was received, as well as categorically. The relationship between race, ethnicity, rurality, insurance (public/private), screening facility type, and distance to nearest screening facility with both continuous and categorically defined compliance were individually assessed via Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVAs, chi-squared tests, multiple linear regression models, and multiple logistic regression, as appropriate. Findings from these individual models were used to inform the construction of a basic, multifaceted prediction model. RESULTS: Model results demonstrated that all factors race and ethnicity had at least some bearing on compliance with screening guidelines among mid-life female Kansans. The strongest signal was observed in the rurality variable, which demonstrated a significant relationship with compliance regardless of how it was defined. CONCLUSION: Understudied factors that are associated with regular mammography adherence, such as rurality and distance to nearest facility, may serve as important considerations when developing intervention strategies for ensuring that female patients stick to prescribed screening regimens.

An integer GARCH model for a Poisson process with time-varying zero-inflation.

A serially dependent Poisson process with time-varying zero-inflation is proposed. Such formulations have the potential to model count data time series arising from phenomena such as infectious diseases that ebb and flow over time. The model assumes that the intensity of the Poisson process evolves according to a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) formulation and allows the zero-inflation parameter to vary over time and be governed by a deterministic function or by an exogenous variable. Both the expectation maximization (EM) and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approaches are presented as possible estimation methods. A simulation study shows that both parameter estimation methods provide good estimates. Applications to two real-life data sets on infant deaths due to influenza show that the proposed integer-valued GARCH (INGARCH) model provides a better fit in general than existing zero-inflated INGARCH models. We also extended a non-linear INGARCH model to include zero-inflation and an exogenous input. This extended model performed as well as our proposed model with respect to some criteria, but not with respect to all.