Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic during the 2020 and 2021 waves in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19-associated mortality remains difficult to estimate in sub-Saharan Africa because of the lack of comprehensive systems of death registration. Based on death registers referring to the capital city of Madagascar, we sought to estimate the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and calculate the loss of life expectancy. METHODS: Death records between 2016 and 2021 were used to estimate weekly excess mortality during the pandemic period. To infer its synchrony with circulation of SARS-CoV-2, a cross-wavelet analysis was performed. Life expectancy loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic was calculated by projecting mortality rates using the Lee and Carter model and extrapolating the prepandemic trends (1990-2019). Differences in life expectancy at birth were disaggregated by cause of death. RESULTS: Peaks of excess mortality in 2020-21 were associated with waves of COVID-19. Estimates of all-cause excess mortality were 38.5 and 64.9 per 100 000 inhabitants in 2020 and 2021, respectively, with excess mortality reaching ≥50% over 6 weeks. In 2021, we quantified a drop of 0.8 and 1.0 years in the life expectancy for men and women, respectively attributable to increased risks of death beyond the age of 60 years. CONCLUSION: We observed high excess mortality during the pandemic period, in particular around the peaks of SARS-CoV-2 circulation in Antananarivo. Our study highlights the need to implement death registration systems in low-income countries to document true toll of a pandemic.

Assessment of surveillance predictors for suspected respiratory syncytial virus, influenza and Streptococcus pneumoniae infections in children aged <5 years in Madagascar.

Background: The lack of rapid, sensitive and affordable diagnostic tests that can distinguish a wide variety of respiratory pathogens at the point of care is an obstacle to the rapid implementation of control measures following events and epidemics. In addition, the absence of a standardized case definition to differentiate putative aetiologies is a challenge to assessing the burden of disease. This study aimed to identify the clinical spectrum of respiratory pathogens commonly associated with respiratory tract infections in the context of disease surveillance. Methods: Data obtained from prospective hospital-based severe acute respiratory infection surveillance among children aged <5 years from November 2010 to July 2013 were used in this study. Results: Intercostal recession and dyspnoea were predictive of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, whereas headache and chills were more often observed during influenza A infection. Male patients were at a higher risk for RSV infection than female patients. Productive cough, chills, sweating and weight loss were significantly associated with Streptococcus pneumoniae infection. The presence of fever did not necessarily indicate RSV infection. Conclusions: Combined with other examinations, this study shows the value of including the syndromic approach in the panel of diagnostic criteria for rapid identification of the risk of infectious diseases in areas where laboratory diagnostics are challenging. Given the current situation with coronavirus disease 2019, this approach may help decision makers to implement appropriate control measures.

Epidemiological Patterns of Seasonal Respiratory Viruses during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Madagascar, March 2020-May 2022.

Three epidemic waves of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) occurred in Madagascar from March 2020 to May 2022, with a positivity rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) of 21% to 33%. Our study aimed to identify the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemiology of seasonal respiratory viruses (RVs) in Madagascar. We used two different specimen sources (SpS). First, 2987 nasopharyngeal (NP) specimens were randomly selected from symptomatic patients between March 2020 and May 2022 who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 and were tested for 14 RVs by multiplex real-time PCR. Second, 6297 NP specimens were collected between March 2020 and May 2022 from patients visiting our sentinel sites of the influenza sentinel network. The samples were tested for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and SARS-CoV-2. From SpS-1, 19% (569/2987) of samples tested positive for at least one RV. Rhinovirus (6.3%, 187/2987) was the most frequently detected virus during the first two waves, whereas influenza predominated during the third. From SpS-2, influenza, SARS-CoV-2, and RSV accounted for 5.4%, 24.5%, and 39.4% of the detected viruses, respectively. During the study period, we observed three different RV circulation profiles. Certain viruses circulated sporadically, with increased activity in between waves of SARS-CoV-2. Other viruses continued to circulate regardless of the COVID-19 situation. Certain viruses were severely disrupted by the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings underline the importance and necessity of maintaining an integrated disease surveillance system for the surveillance and monitoring of RVs of public health interest.

The COVID-19 epidemic in Madagascar: clinical description and laboratory results of the first wave, march-september 2020.

BACKGROUND: Following the first detection of SARS-CoV-2 in passengers arriving from Europe on 19 March 2020, Madagascar took several mitigation measures to limit the spread of the virus in the country. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal and/or oropharyngeal swabs were collected from travellers to Madagascar, suspected SARS-CoV-2 cases and contact of confirmed cases. Swabs were tested at the national reference laboratory using real-time RT-PCR. Data collected from patients were entered in an electronic database for subsequent statistical analysis. All distribution of laboratory-confirmed cases were mapped, and six genomes of viruses were fully sequenced. RESULTS: Overall, 26,415 individuals were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between 18 March and 18 September 2020, of whom 21.0% (5,553/26,145) returned positive. Among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2-positive patients, the median age was 39 years (IQR: 28-52), and 56.6% (3,311/5,553) were asymptomatic at the time of sampling. The probability of testing positive increased with age with the highest adjusted odds ratio of 2.2 [95% CI: 1.9-2.5] for individuals aged 49 years and more. Viral strains sequenced belong to clades 19A, 20A and 20B indicative of several independent introduction of viruses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study describes the first wave of the COVID-19 in Madagascar. Despite early strategies in place Madagascar could not avoid the introduction and spread of the virus. More studies are needed to estimate the true burden of disease and make public health recommendations for a better preparation to another wave.

Epidemiology of severe acute respiratory infections from hospital-based surveillance in Madagascar, November 2010 to July 2013.

BACKGROUND: Few comprehensive data exist regarding the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in low income countries. This study aimed at identifying etiologies and describing clinical features of SARI-associated hospitalization in Madagascar. METHODS: It is a prospective surveillance of SARI in 2 hospitals for 3 years. Nasopharyngeal swabs, sputum, and blood were collected from SARI patients enrolled and tested for viruses and bacteria. Epidemiological and clinical information were obtained from case report forms. RESULTS: Overall, 876 patients were enrolled in the study, of which 83.1% (728/876) were tested positive for at least one pathogen. Viral and bacterial infections occurred in 76.1% (667/876) and 35.8% (314/876) of tested samples, respectively. Among all detected viruses, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was the most common (37.7%; 348/924) followed by influenza virus A (FLUA, 18.4%; 170/924), rhinovirus (RV, 13.5%; 125/924), and adenovirus (ADV, 8.3%; 77/924). Among bacteria, Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae, 50.3%, 189/370) was the most detected followed by Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib, 21.4%; 79/370), and Klebsiella (4.6%; 17/370). Other Streptococcus species were found in 8.1% (30/370) of samples. Compared to patients aged less than 5 years, older age groups were significantly less infected with RSV. On the other hand, patients aged more than 64 years (OR = 3.66) were at higher risk to be infected with FLUA, while those aged 15-29 years (OR = 3.22) and 30-64 years (OR = 2.39) were more likely to be infected with FLUB (influenza virus B). CONCLUSION: The frequency of influenza viruses detected among SARI patients aged 65 years and more highlights the need for health authorities to develop strategies to reduce morbidity amongst at-risk population through vaccine recommendation. Amongst young children, the demonstrated burden of RSV should guide clinicians for a better case management of children. These findings reveal the need to develop point-of-care tests to avoid overuse of antibiotics and to promote vaccine that could reduce drastically the RSV hospitalizations.

Distribution of influenza virus types by age using case-based global surveillance data from twenty-nine countries, 1999-2014.

BACKGROUND: Influenza disease burden varies by age and this has important public health implications. We compared the proportional distribution of different influenza virus types within age strata using surveillance data from twenty-nine countries during 1999-2014 (N=358,796 influenza cases). METHODS: For each virus, we calculated a Relative Illness Ratio (defined as the ratio of the percentage of cases in an age group to the percentage of the country population in the same age group) for young children (0-4 years), older children (5-17 years), young adults (18-39 years), older adults (40-64 years), and the elderly (65+ years). We used random-effects meta-analysis models to obtain summary relative illness ratios (sRIRs), and conducted meta-regression and sub-group analyses to explore causes of between-estimates heterogeneity. RESULTS: The influenza virus with highest sRIR was A(H1N1) for young children, B for older children, A(H1N1)pdm2009 for adults, and (A(H3N2) for the elderly. As expected, considering the diverse nature of the national surveillance datasets included in our analysis, between-estimates heterogeneity was high (I2>90%) for most sRIRs. The variations of countries' geographic, demographic and economic characteristics and the proportion of outpatients among reported influenza cases explained only part of the heterogeneity, suggesting that multiple factors were at play. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the importance of presenting burden of disease estimates by age group and virus (sub)type.

Temporal Patterns of Influenza A and B in Tropical and Temperate Countries: What Are the Lessons for Influenza Vaccination?

INTRODUCTION: Determining the optimal time to vaccinate is important for influenza vaccination programmes. Here, we assessed the temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and in the tropics, and discuss their implications for vaccination programmes. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data between 2000 and 2014 from the Global Influenza B Study database. The seasonal peak of influenza was defined as the week with the most reported cases (overall, A, and B) in the season. The duration of seasonal activity was assessed using the maximum proportion of influenza cases during three consecutive months and the minimum number of months with ≥80% of cases in the season. We also assessed whether co-circulation of A and B virus types affected the duration of influenza epidemics. RESULTS: 212 influenza seasons and 571,907 cases were included from 30 countries. In tropical countries, the seasonal influenza activity lasted longer and the peaks of influenza A and B coincided less frequently than in temperate countries. Temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics were heterogeneous in the tropics, with distinct seasonal epidemics observed only in some countries. Seasons with co-circulation of influenza A and B were longer than influenza A seasons, especially in the tropics. DISCUSSION: Our findings show that influenza seasonality is less well defined in the tropics than in temperate regions. This has important implications for vaccination programmes in these countries. High-quality influenza surveillance systems are needed in the tropics to enable decisions about when to vaccinate.

Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner.

BACKGROUND: The seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries. OBJECTIVES: We aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar. METHODS: We compiled weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza-positive specimens for the period 2002 to 2012 collected in Antananarivo, with data available from sub-Saharan countries and countries contributing most foreign travelers to Madagascar. Daily climate indicators were compiled for the study period. RESULTS: Overall, influenza activity detected in Antananarivo predated that identified in temperate Northern Hemisphere locations. This activity presented poor temporal matching with viral activity in other countries from the African continent or countries highly connected to Madagascar excepted for A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza detection in Antananarivo was not associated with travel activity and, although it was positively correlated with all climatic variables studied, such association was weak. CONCLUSIONS: The timing of influenza activity in Antananarivo is irregular, is not driven by climate, and does not align with that of countries in geographic proximity or highly connected to Madagascar. This work opens fresh questions regarding the drivers of influenza seasonality globally particularly in mid-latitude and less-connected regions to tailor vaccine strategies locally.

Early-warning health and process indicators for sentinel surveillance in Madagascar 2007-2011.

BACKGROUND: Epidemics pose major threats in resource-poor countries, and surveillance tools for their early detection and response are often inadequate. In 2007, a sentinel surveillance system was established in Madagascar, with the aim of rapidly identifying potential epidemics of febrile or diarrhoeal syndromes and issuing alerts. We present the health and process indicators for the five years during which this system was constructed, showing the spatiotemporal trends, early-warning sign detection capability and process evaluation through timely analyses of high-quality data. METHODS: The Malagasy sentinel surveillance network is currently based on data for fever and diarrhoeal syndromes collected from 34 primary health centres and reported daily via the transmission of short messages from mobile telephones. Data are analysed daily at the Institut Pasteur de Madagascar to make it possible to issue alerts more rapidly, and integrated process indicators (timeliness, data quality) are used to monitor the system. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2011, 917,798 visits were reported. Febrile syndromes accounted for about 11% of visits annually, but the trends observed differed between years and sentinel sites. From 2007 to 2011, 21 epidemic alerts were confirmed. However, delays in data transmission were observed (88% transmitted within 24 hours in 2008; 67% in 2011) and the percentage of forms transmitted each week for validity control decreased from 99.9% in 2007 to 63.5% in 2011. CONCLUSION: A sentinel surveillance scheme should take into account both epidemiological and process indicators. It must also be governed by the main purpose of the surveillance and by local factors, such as the motivation of healthcare workers and telecommunication infrastructure. Permanent evaluation indicators are required for regular improvement of the system.

Outcome risk factors during respiratory infections in a paediatric ward in Antananarivo, Madagascar 2010-2012.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of infectious disease-related morbidity, hospitalisation and mortality among children worldwide, and particularly in developing countries. In these low-income countries, most patients with acute respiratory infection (ARI), whether it is mild or severe, are still treated empirically. The aim of the study was to evaluate the risk factors associated with the evolution and outcome of respiratory illnesses in patients aged under 5 years old. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective study in a paediatric ward in Antananarivo from November 2010 to July 2012 including patients under 5 years old suffering from respiratory infections. We collected demographic, socio-economic, clinical and epidemiological data, and samples for laboratory analysis. Deaths, rapid progression to respiratory distress during hospitalisation, and hospitalisation for more than 10 days were considered as severe outcomes. We used multivariate analysis to study the effects of co-infections. RESULTS: From November 2010 to July 2012, a total of 290 patients were enrolled. Co-infection was found in 192 patients (70%). Co-infections were more frequent in children under 36 months, with a significant difference for the 19-24 month-old group (OR: 8.0). Sixty-nine percent (230/290) of the patients recovered fully and without any severe outcome during hospitalisation; the outcome was scored as severe for 60 children and nine patients (3%) died. Risk factors significantly associated with worsening evolution during hospitalisation (severe outcome) were admission at age under 6 months (OR = 5.3), comorbidity (OR = 4.6) and low household income (OR = 4.1). CONCLUSION: Co-mordidity, low-income and age under 6 months increase the risk of severe outcome for children infected by numerous respiratory pathogens. These results highlight the need for implementation of targeted public health policy to reduce the contribution of respiratory diseases to childhood morbidity and mortality in low income countries.

Epidemiological and virological characterization of 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Madagascar was one of the first African countries to be affected by the 2009 pandemic of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 [A(H1N1)pdm2009] infection. The outbreak started in the capital city, Antananarivo, and then spread throughout the country from October 2009 through February 2010. METHODS: Specimens from patients presenting with influenza-like illness were collected and shipped to the National Influenza Center in Madagascar for analyses, together with forms containing patient demographic and clinical information. RESULTS: Of the 2303 specimens tested, 1016 (44.1%) and 131 (5.7%) yielded A(H1N1)pdm09 and seasonal influenza virus, respectively. Most specimens (42.0%) received were collected from patients <10 years old. Patients <20 years old were more likely than patients >50 years old to be infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 (odds ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-2.6; P < .01). Although phylogenetic analyses of A(H1N1)pdm09 suggested multiple introductions of the virus into Madagascar, no antigenic differences between A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses recovered in Madagascar and those that circulated worldwide were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The high proportion of respiratory specimens positive for A(H1N1)pdm09 is consistent with a widespread transmission of the pandemic in Madagascar. The age distribution of cases of A(H1N1)pdm09 infection suggests that children and young adults could be targeted for interventions that aim to reduce transmission during an influenza pandemic.

Spatiotemporal circulation of influenza viruses in 5 African countries during 2008-2009: a collaborative study of the Institut Pasteur International Network.

BACKGROUND: Although recent work has described the spatiotemporal diffusion of influenza viruses worldwide, comprehensive data on spatiotemporal patterns of influenza from the African continent and Madagascar are still lacking. METHODS: National Influenza Centers from 5 countries-Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Madagascar, Niger, and Senegal--collected specimens from patients presenting with influenza-like illness who visited sentinel surveillance clinics during a 2-year period (2008-2009). Isolates were genetically and antigenically characterized. RESULTS: Overall, 8312 specimens were tested. Seasonal influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B viruses were detected in 329, 689, and 148 specimens, respectively. In 2009, pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 was detected in Madagascar most commonly (98.5% of cases). Influenza activity was either significant year-round or occurred during a specific period of the year in the African countries we evaluated. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that, from Madagascar to Senegal, the epidemiologic and virologic characteristics of influenza viruses are diverse in terms of spatiotemporal circulation of the different virus types, subtypes, and strains. Our data highlight the importance of country-specific surveillance and of data and virus sharing, and they provide a rational basis to aid policy makers to develop strategies, such as vaccination at the right moment and with the right formulation, aimed at reducing the disease burden in Africa and Madagascar.

Short message service sentinel surveillance of influenza-like illness in Madagascar, 2008-2012.

PROBLEM: The revision of the International Health Regulations (IHR) and the threat of influenza pandemics and other disease outbreaks with a major impact on developing countries have prompted bolstered surveillance capacity, particularly in low-resource settings. APPROACH: Surveillance tools with well-timed, validated data are necessary to strengthen disease surveillance. In 2007 Madagascar implemented a sentinel surveillance system for influenza-like illness (ILI) based on data collected from sentinel general practitioners. SETTING: Before 2007, Madagascar's disease surveillance was based on the passive collection and reporting of data aggregated weekly or monthly. The system did not allow for the early identification of outbreaks or unexpected increases in disease incidence. RELEVANT CHANGES: An innovative case reporting system based on the use of cell phones was launched in March 2007. Encrypted short message service, which costs less than 2 United States dollars per month per health centre, is now being used by sentinel general practitioners for the daily reporting of cases of fever and ILI seen in their practices. To validate the daily data, practitioners also report epidemiological and clinical data (e.g. new febrile patient's sex, age, visit date, symptoms) weekly to the epidemiologists on the research team using special patient forms. LESSONS LEARNT: Madagascar's sentinel ILI surveillance system represents the country's first nationwide "real-time" surveillance system. It has proved the feasibility of improving disease surveillance capacity through innovative systems despite resource constraints. This type of syndromic surveillance can detect unexpected increases in the incidence of ILI and other syndromic illnesses.

Viral etiology of influenza-like illnesses in Antananarivo, Madagascar, July 2008 to June 2009.

BACKGROUND: In Madagascar, despite an influenza surveillance established since 1978, little is known about the etiology and prevalence of viruses other than influenza causing influenza-like illnesses (ILIs). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From July 2008 to June 2009, we collected respiratory specimens from patients who presented ILIs symptoms in public and private clinics in Antananarivo (the capital city of Madagascar). ILIs were defined as body temperature ≥38°C and cough and at least two of the following symptoms: sore throat, rhinorrhea, headache and muscular pain, for a maximum duration of 3 days. We screened these specimens using five multiplex real time Reverse Transcription and/or Polymerase Chain Reaction assays for detection of 14 respiratory viruses. We detected respiratory viruses in 235/313 (75.1%) samples. Overall influenza virus A (27.3%) was the most common virus followed by rhinovirus (24.8%), RSV (21.2%), adenovirus (6.1%), coronavirus OC43 (6.1%), influenza virus B (3.9%), parainfluenza virus-3 (2.9%), and parainfluenza virus-1 (2.3%). Co-infections occurred in 29.4% (69/235) of infected patients and rhinovirus was the most detected virus (27.5%). Children under 5 years were more likely to have one or more detectable virus associated with their ILI. In this age group, compared to those ≥5 years, the risk of detecting more than one virus was higher (OR = 1.9), as was the risk of detecting of RSV (OR = 10.1) and adenovirus (OR = 4.7). While rhinovirus and adenovirus infections occurred year round, RSV, influenza virus A and coronavirus OC43 had defined period of circulation. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, we found that respiratory viruses play an important role in ILIs in the Malagasy community, particularly in children under 5 years old. These data provide a better understanding of the viral etiology of outpatients with ILI and describe for the first time importance of these viruses in different age group and their period of circulation.