Estimating mortality and disability in Peru before the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of the Disease Study 2019.

Background: Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru's healthcare system performance. Methods: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region. Results: The Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5-10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1-9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region. Conclusion: In the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability.

The burden of disease, injuries, and risk factors in Mexico: 1990-2021 update.

BACKGROUND: For thirty years, Mexico has studied the burden of disease in order to inform health decisions. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the burden of disease, injuries, and risk factors in Mexico between 1990 and 2021. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study were used to analyze mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years, as well as the burden attributable to risk factors by sex, age and state of the country. RESULTS: Infant mortality decreased by 39.4% from 1990 to 2000 and by 49.0% from 2000 to 2013. At the national level, mortality decreased by 27.5% between 1990 and 2019, but increased in 2020 and 2021 across all states, especially in adults aged from 35 to 64 years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which contributed with 24.3% of deaths in 2021. Significant differences in mortality were observed according to age and sex. The burden attributable to metabolic risk factors did increase, while alcohol and tobacco consumption decreased. Access to drinking water and sanitation showed improvements. CONCLUSIONS: Assessing the burden of disease is crucial in order to design effective strategies to address current health needs and future healthcare challenges.

ANTECEDENTES: Desde hace treinta años, México ha estudiado la carga de la enfermedad para sustentar decisiones en salud. OBJETIVO: Analizar la carga de enfermedad, lesiones y factores de riesgo en México entre 1990 y 2021. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se utilizaron las estimaciones del Global Burden of Disease 2021 para analizar la mortalidad, los años de vida perdidos por muerte prematura, los años vividos con discapacidad y los años de vida saludable perdidos, así como la carga atribuible a los factores de riesgos por sexo, edad y entidad federativa. RESULTADOS: La mortalidad infantil disminuyó 39.4 % de 1990 a 2000, y 49.0 % de 2000 a 2019. En el ámbito nacional, la mortalidad decreció 27.5 % entre 1990 y 2019, pero ascendió en 2020 y 2021 en todos los estados, especialmente en adultos de 35 a 64 años, debido a la pandemia de COVID-19, que contribuyó con 24.3 % de las defunciones en 2019. Se observaron diferencias significativas en la mortalidad según la edad y el sexo. La carga atribuible a los factores de riesgo metabólicos se incrementó, mientras que la atribuible el consumo de alcohol y tabaco disminuyó. El acceso al agua potable y saneamiento mejoró. CONCLUSIONES: Evaluar la carga de enfermedad es crucial para diseñar estrategias eficaces para abordar las necesidades actuales y los futuros desafíos en salud.

The burden of chronic kidney disease in Mexico: data analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents a substantial global burden of disease due to a lack of universal tests and misinterpretation of biomarkers. OBJECTIVE: To analyze CKD epidemiology in Mexico and guide public policies. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were used to describe CKD prevalence and mortality in Mexico for the 1990-2021 period, stratifying by gender and age groups. RESULTS: The prevalence of CKD in Mexico in 2021 was 9,184.9 per 100,000 population. Diabetes was the most common cause of CKD, and CKD-related mortality was high, with an increase in 2019 and 2021, possibly as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: CKD in Mexico entails a high burden of mortality and years of life lost, but it barely contributes to disability. It is essential to improve CKD early detection, access to treatments and coding of the causes of the disease. Moreover, investigating the causes of CKD of unknown etiology, including genetic factors, is crucial in order for specific treatments to be developed in the future.

ANTECEDENTES: La enfermedad renal crónica (ERC) representa una elevada carga global de enfermedad debido a la falta de pruebas universales y a la interpretación errónea de biomarcadores. OBJETIVO: Analizar la epidemiología de la ERC en México y orientar las políticas públicas. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se utilizaron los datos del estudio Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 para describir la prevalencia y mortalidad de la ERC en México durante el periodo de 1990 a 2021, estratificando por sexo y grupos de edad. RESULTADOS: La prevalencia de la ERC en México en 2021 fue de 9184.9 por 100 000 habitantes. La diabetes constituyó la causa más común de ERC y la mortalidad por ERC fue elevada, se incrementó en 2019 y 2021, posiblemente debido a la pandemia de COVID-19. CONCLUSIONES: La ERC en México presenta una alta carga de mortalidad y años de vida perdidos, pero contribuye poco a la discapacidad. Es esencial mejorar la detección temprana de la ERC, el acceso a tratamientos y la codificación de las causas de la enfermedad. Además, investigar las causas de la ERC de etiología desconocida, incluidos factores genéticos, es crucial para desarrollar tratamientos específicos en el futuro.

The burden attributable to risk factors in Mexico, 1990-2021. Summary of the findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decades, Mexico's health landscape has shifted from infectious to non-communicable diseases and violence, mirroring lifestyle, urbanization, and developmental changes. OBJECTIVE: To describe the impact of risk factors on health in Mexico from 1990 to 2021. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study estimates, we describe risk factor-related mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in Mexico (1990-2021) by age, sex, and state of the country. RESULTS: In 2021, risk factors led to 14.9 (12.9-16.7) million DALYs, which accounted for 32.4% of Mexico's burden. Metabolic risks, with 19.8% (17.0-21.9%), were the main contributors. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized all-cause mortality rate associated with metabolic risks increased by 6.5%, while behavioral and environmental risks decreased by more than 50%, with marked variations between states. The predominant risk factors shifted from malnutrition and unsafe water and sanitation in 1990 to high glucose and body mass index in 2021. Malnutrition-related risks have the highest impact on health loss in children younger than 5 years. CONCLUSION: Mexico faces a dual health challenge: childhood malnutrition persists, and adult metabolic risks are on the rise, particularly in less developed states, with targeted interventions for traditional and emerging health threats being required.

ANTECEDENTES: Durante décadas, México ha transitado de las enfermedades infecciosas a las crónicas y la violencia, debido a cambios en los estilos de vida y la urbanización. OBJETIVO: Describir el impacto en salud de los factores de riesgo en México entre 1990 y 2021. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se utilizaron las estimaciones del Global Burden of Disease para analizar la mortalidad y años de vida saludable (AVISA) perdidos atribuibles a factores de riesgo, estratificados por edad, sexo y estado. RESULTADOS: Los factores de riesgo representaron 14.9 millones de AVISA en 2021, 32.4 % del total nacional, con predominio de los riesgos metabólicos (19.8 %). La mortalidad estandarizada por edad debida a estos riesgos se incrementó 6.5 % de 1990 a 2021 y los riesgos conductuales y ambientales se redujeron en más de 50 %. Los factores predominantes cambiaron de desnutrición, problemas de acceso al agua potable y saneamiento en 1990 a altos niveles de glucosa y obesidad en 2021; la desnutrición fue el mayor riesgo en los niños menores de cinco años. CONCLUSIONES: México afronta desafíos sanitarios dobles, la desnutrición infantil continúa y los riesgos metabólicos en adultos se incrementan, sobre todo en los estados menos desarrollados, por lo que se requieren intervenciones específicas para amenazas nuevas y existentes.

Type 2 diabetes epidemic in Mexico. Burden of disease 1990-2021 analysis and implications for public policies.

BACKGROUND: Mexico faces a challenge due to the burden imposed by type 2 diabetes (T2D). OBJECTIVE: To analyze T2D epidemiology and burden in Mexico from 1990 to 2021, at the national and state levels. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study were used to evaluate the prevalence, incidence, mortality, fatal and non-fatal burden. Metabolic, environmental and behavioral factors were considered. Comparative analyses were carried out by gender, age and state of the country. RESULTS: The prevalence of T2D increased by 25%. The incidence increased in those younger than 45 years, with a mortality decrease being found among women. The rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) showed an increase in all states, from 45.2% in Nuevo León to 237.6% in Tabasco. In 2021, T2D caused the loss of 3.1 million DALYs, which accounted for 6.6% of total burden in Mexico, out of which 64% was due to premature deaths. Diabetic neuropathy affected 47%, and there were 270,000 cases of visual impairment; 66.3% of the burden was attributed to obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive policies are urgently needed in order to reduce the burden of T2D in Mexico, through standardized guidelines, evidence-based strategies and technological resources that improve medical care accessibility and efficiency.

ANTECEDENTES: México enfrenta un desafío por la carga que representa la diabetes tipo 2 (DT2). OBJETIVO: Analizar la epidemiología y la carga de DT2 en México de 1990 a 2021 en los ámbitos nacional y estatal. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se empleó el Global Burden of Disease 2021 para evaluar prevalencia, incidencia, mortalidad, carga letal y no letal. Se consideraron factores metabólicos, ambientales y de comportamiento. Se realizó análisis comparativo por sexo, edad y entidad federativa. RESULTADOS: Se incrementó la prevalencia de DT2 en 25 % y la incidencia en menores de 45 años; la mortalidad en mujeres disminuyó. La tasa de años de vida saludable (AVISA) perdidos se incrementó en todos los estados, entre 45.2 % en Nuevo León y 237.6 % en Tabasco. En 2021, la DT2 ocasionó 3.1 millones de AVISA perdidos, que representaron 6.6 % de la carga total en México, de la cual 64 % se atribuyó a muertes prematuras. La neuropatía diabética afectó a 47 % y las afecciones visuales a 270 000 personas; 66.3 % de la carga se atribuyó a obesidad. CONCLUSIONES: Urgen políticas integrales para reducir la carga de DT2 en México, mediante pautas estandarizadas, estrategias basadas en evidencia y recursos tecnológicos que mejoren la accesibilidad y eficiencia de la atención médica.

Respiratory diseases in Mexico: analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory diseases (RD) are often analyzed separately rather than collectively, possibly leading to an underestimation of their total burden. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the burden of RD in Mexico for population aged 20 or older from 1990 to 2021. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We present the burden of RD in Mexico based on estimates of the Global Burden of Disease study for mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), comprising counts, rates per 100,000, as well as age-standardized rates. RDs were categorized into three key groups: chronic respiratory diseases (CRD), respiratory infections (RI), and respiratory cancers. RESULTS: In 2021, among those aged 20+, RDs were responsible for 336,728 deaths, which accounts for 30.5% of total deaths -a nearly threefold increase since 2019, primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic. CRDs contributed with 3.4% of total deaths; RIs, with 25.9%; and respiratory cancers, with 1.2%. CRDs showed a continuous rise in deaths, crude mortality, and DALY rates across genders, with no signs of leveling. RD burden varied widely across Mexican states. Age-standardized CRD mortality rates have generally declined since 1990, except for interstitial lung diseases, which have consistently increased. CONCLUSION: The significant burden of mortality and disability due to RDs in Mexico underscores the n|ecessity for enhanced prevention, research, and for addressing risk factors such as smoking and pollution. Ongoing healthcare training can help reduce RD burden.

ANTECEDENTES: Las enfermedades respiratorias (ER) se analizan individualmente, posiblemente con subestimación de su carga total. OBJETIVO: Analizar la carga de las ER en México para población de 20 años o más de 1990 a 2021. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se presenta la carga de ER en México a partir de estimaciones del estudio Global Burden of Disease en cuanto a mortalidad y años de vida saludable (AVISA) perdidos que comprenden recuentos, tasas por 100 000 y tasas estandarizadas por edad. Las ER se categorizaron en enfermedades respiratorias crónicas (ERC), infecciones respiratorias y cánceres respiratorios. RESULTADOS: En 2021, las ER causaron la muerte de 336 728 adultos mayores de 20 años, lo que representó 30.5 % del total de defunciones, incremento cercano al triple respecto a 2019, principalmente debido a COVID-19. Las ERC contribuyeron con 3.4 % del total de muertes, las infecciones respiratorias con 25.9 % y los cánceres respiratorios con 1.2 %. La mortalidad y AVISA perdidos por ERC se incrementaron persistentemente, con variaciones entre los estados. Las tasas de mortalidad ajustadas por edad de las ERC disminuyeron desde 1990, excepto las enfermedades pulmonares intersticiales, que se incrementaron constantemente. CONCLUSIÓN: Los significativos niveles de mortalidad y discapacidad debidos a enfermedades respiratorias en México exigen mejorar la prevención, investigación y abordar factores de riesgo como tabaquismo y contaminación, además de fomentar la capacitación médica continua.

Burden of overweight and obesity in Mexico from 1990 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity (OW/OB) represent a serious challenge in Mexico, with effects on health, society and economy. Demographic, epidemiological, nutritional, social and economic factors have exacerbated this problem. OBJECTIVE: To analyze mortality and years of healthy life lost in Mexico due to OW/OB in the 1990-2021 period. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors 2021 study was used to analyze data on elevated body mass index (BMI) as a risk factor and its evolution in Mexico. RESULTS: In 2021, 118 thousand deaths attributable to high BMI were recorded, which accounted for 10.6% of total deaths and more than 4.2 million disability-adjusted life years lost. CONCLUSIONS: The obesogenic environment, influenced by social determinants of health, has had a significant impact on mortality, burden of disease, and economic costs. Addressing OW/OB requires multisector interventions to strengthen the Mexican health system.

ANTECEDENTES: El sobrepeso y la obesidad constituyen un grave desafío en México, con efectos en la salud, sociedad y economía. Factores demográficos, epidemiológicos, nutricionales, sociales y económicos han agravado esta problemática. OBJETIVO: Analizar la mortalidad y los años de vida saludable perdidos en México por sobrepeso y obesidad en el período de 1990 a 2021. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se utilizó el Global Burden of Disease 2021 para analizar los datos sobre índice de masa corporal elevado como factor de riesgo y su evolución en México. RESULTADOS: En 2021 se registraron 118 mil muertes atribuibles a índice de masa corporal elevado, que representaron 10.6 % del total de muertes y más de 4.2 millones de años de vida perdidos ajustados por discapacidad. CONCLUSIONES: El ambiente obesogénico, influido por determinantes sociales, ha tenido un impacto significativo en la mortalidad, la carga de enfermedad y los costos económicos. Abordar el sobrepeso y la obesidad requiere intervenciones multisectoriales para fortalecer el sistema de salud mexicano.

Impact of accidental and intentional injuries in Mexico. Findings of the Global Burden of Disease study for 1990 and 2021.

BACKGROUND: Previous analyses on the burden of disease in Mexico identified that injuries differentially affect young people, males and working-age people. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the burden of disease due to intentional and unintentional injuries in Mexico during 1990 and 2021, at the national and state levels. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The results of the Global Burden of Disease study for the 1990-2021 period were used to describe the burden of disease attributed to injuries in Mexico. The life years lost (YLL) due to premature mortality, years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were analyzed. RESULTS: The burden of disease related to intentional injuries has increased, as also have YLDs and DALYs associated with unintentional injuries. Men continue to have higher mortality and DALY rates compared to women. Interpersonal violence and suicide have steadily increased. The analysis by state showed patterns with important variations. CONCLUSIONS: Injuries generate catastrophic consequences in terms of mortality and disability in Mexico. It is necessary to promote and strengthen programs and policies in order to improve the data system and injury prevention.

ANTECEDENTES: Análisis previos sobre la carga de la enfermedad en México identificaron que las lesiones afectan de manera diferenciada a hombres, personas jóvenes y en edad productiva. OBJETIVO: Analizar la carga de la enfermedad por lesiones intencionales y no intencionales en México durante 1990 y 2021 en los ámbitos nacional y estatal. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se utilizaron los resultados del Global Burden of Disease respecto al período 1990-2021 para describir la carga de la enfermedad por las principales causas de lesiones en México; se analizaron los años perdidos por muerte prematura (APMP), los años vividos con discapacidad (AVD) y los años de vida saludable perdidos (AVISA). RESULTADOS: La carga de la enfermedad relacionada con lesiones intencionales se ha incrementado, al igual que los AVD y AVISA por lesiones no intencionales. Los hombres continúan presentando tasas de mortalidad y AVISA más altas comparados con las mujeres. La violencia interpersonal y el suicidio se han incrementado de manera sostenida El análisis por estados mostró patrones con variaciones importantes. CONCLUSIONES: Las lesiones generan consecuencias catastróficas en términos de mortalidad y discapacidad en México. Es indispensable impulsar y reforzar los programas y políticas para mejorar el sistema de datos y la prevención de lesiones.

Analysis of musculoskeletal disorders-associated disability in Mexico from 1990 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) affect 1.71 billion people worldwide and are the leading cause of disability. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the years lived with disability (YLD) attributed to MSD in Mexico between 1990 and 2021. MATERIAL AND METHODS: With estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, the YLDs due to MSD and their six categories were analyzed, including osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, neck pain, low back pain, as well as other MSDs. Patterns and trends in the number, crude rate, and YLD age-standardized rate were evaluated at the national and state levels, as well as by age group and gender. RESULTS: MSDs were the main cause of YLDs in Mexico between 1990 and 2021, with an increase of 57.3%, going from 1,458.4 to 2,293.7 per 100,000 population. Low back pain (840.6 YLD) showed the highest rate in 2021, while osteoarthritis had the largest increase. MSDs increased with age and, and except for gout, affected women more often. CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2021, MSDs were the main cause of YLDs in Mexico, with a higher impact on adults and women. MSDs can appear early in life, hence the need for continuous interventions in order to preserve quality of life.

ANTECEDENTES: Los trastornos musculoesqueléticos (TME) afectan a 1710 millones de personas en todo el mundo y es la principal causa de discapacidad. OBJETIVO: Analizar los años vividos con discapacidad (AVD) por TME en México entre 1990 y 2021. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Con las estimaciones del estudio de la Carga Global de la Enfermedad 2021 se analizaron los AVD por TME y sus seis categorías: osteoartritis, artritis reumatoide, gota, dolor cervical, lumbalgia y otros TME. Se evaluaron patrones y tendencias del número, tasa cruda y tasa estandarizada por edad de los AVD a nivel nacional, estatal, por grupos de edad y sexo. RESULTADOS: Los TME constituyeron la principal causa de AVD en México entre 1990 y 2021, con un incremento de 57.3 %; pasaron de 1458.4 a 2293.7 por 100 000 habitantes. La lumbalgia (840.6 AVD) destacó con la mayor tasa en 2021 y la osteoartritis, con el mayor incremento. Los TME se incrementaron con la edad y, con excepción de la gota, afectaron más a las mujeres. CONCLUSIONES: De 1990 a 2021, los TME constituyeron la principal causa de AVD en México, con mayor impacto en adultos y mujeres. Los TME se evidencian desde edades tempranas, de ahí la necesidad de intervenciones continuas para preservar la calidad de vida.

COVID-19 impact on life expectancy in Mexico. An analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study.

BACKGROUND: Between 2020 and 2021, Mexico documented 2.21 million fatalities, out of which 25.3% were attributable to SARS-COV-2 infection. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate COVID-19 mortality during 2020-2021, determine its impact on national- and state-level life expectancy at birth, and in a group of selected countries of the region, as well as to analyze it according to sociodemographic profiles. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study were used to report mortality, the impact on life expectancy and underlying causes between 2019 and 2021. These data were evaluated from the perspective of response to the pandemic and according to the sociodemographic structure based on a quadratic regression model. RESULTS: Between 2020 and 2021, 708,971 excess deaths were recorded, which decreased life expectancy at birth by 4.6 years; 76% of this reduction was attributed to COVID-19. The COVID-19 mortality rate was higher than expected according to the sociodemographic conditions of the states. CONCLUSIONS: In Mexico and the countries of the region, the pandemic was devastating and generated regressions in life expectancy at birth, which varied from two to nine years. It is not clear why the effect was so different between countries and within Mexico.

ANTECEDENTES: Entre 2020 y 2021, México experimentó 2.21 millones de defunciones, de las cuales 25.3 % estuvo relacionado con infección por SARS-COV-2. OBJETIVOS: Evaluar la mortalidad por COVID-19 en 2020-2021, determinar su influencia en la esperanza de vida al nacer a nivel nacional, estatal y en países seleccionados de la región, así como analizarla en función del perfil sociodemográfico. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se utilizaron datos del Global Burden of Disease 2021 para reportar la mortalidad, el impacto en la esperanza de vida y las causas subyacentes entre 2019 y 2021. Se usó una regresión cuadrática para evaluar la mortalidad en exceso como indicador de la respuesta de los estados a la pandemia, considerando su estructura sociodemográfica. RESULTADOS: Entre 2020 y 2021, se registraron 708 971 muertes en exceso, que disminuyeron la esperanza de vida al nacer en 4.6 años; 76 % de esta reducción se atribuyó a COVID-19. La tasa de mortalidad por COVID-19 fue superior a la esperada conforme a las condiciones sociodemográficas de las entidades. CONCLUSIONES: En México y los países de la región, la pandemia fue devastadora y generó regresiones en la esperanza de vida al nacer, que variaron de dos a nueve años. Se requiere más investigación para entender las variaciones en sus efectos.

The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk.

Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk. We present a new suite of meta-analyses-termed the Burden of Proof studies-designed specifically to help evaluate these methodological issues objectively and quantitatively. Through this data-driven approach that complements existing systems, including GRADE and Cochrane Reviews, we aim to aggregate evidence across multiple studies and enable a quantitative comparison of risk-outcome pairs. We introduce the burden of proof risk function (BPRF), which estimates the level of risk closest to the null hypothesis that is consistent with available data. Here we illustrate the BPRF methodology for the evaluation of four exemplar risk-outcome pairs: smoking and lung cancer, systolic blood pressure and ischemic heart disease, vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease, and unprocessed red meat consumption and ischemic heart disease. The strength of evidence for each relationship is assessed by computing and summarizing the BPRF, and then translating the summary to a simple star rating. The Burden of Proof methodology provides a consistent way to understand, evaluate and summarize evidence of risk across different risk-outcome pairs, and informs risk analysis conducted as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

Effects of elevated systolic blood pressure on ischemic heart disease: a Burden of Proof study.

High systolic blood pressure (SBP) is a major risk factor for ischemic heart disease (IHD), the leading cause of death worldwide. Using data from published observational studies and controlled trials, we estimated the mean SBP-IHD dose-response function and burden of proof risk function (BPRF), and we calculated a risk outcome score (ROS) and corresponding star rating (one to five). We found a very strong, significant harmful effect of SBP on IHD, with a mean risk-relative to that at 100 mm Hg SBP-of 1.39 (95% uncertainty interval including between-study heterogeneity 1.34-1.44) at 120 mm Hg, 1.81 (1.70-1.93) at 130 mm Hg and 4.48 (3.81-5.26) at 165 mm Hg. The conservative BPRF measure indicated that SBP exposure between 107.5 and 165.0 mm Hg raised risk by 101.36% on average, yielding a ROS of 0.70 and star rating of five. Our analysis shows that IHD risk was already increasing at 120 mm Hg SBP, rising steadily up to 165 mm Hg and increasing less steeply above that point. Our study endorses the need to prioritize and strengthen strategies for screening, to raise awareness of the need for timely diagnosis and treatment of hypertension and to increase the resources allocated for understanding primordial prevention of elevated blood pressure.

Integrated Measurement for Early Detection (MIDO) as a digital strategy for timely assessment of non-communicable disease profiles and factors associated with unawareness and control: a retrospective observational study in primary healthcare facilities in Mexico.

OBJECTIVES: The Carlos Slim Foundation implemented the Integrated Measurement for Early Detection (MIDO), a screening strategy for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Mexico as part of CASALUD, a portfolio of digital health services focusing on healthcare delivery and prevention/management of NCDs. We investigated the disease profile of the screened population and evaluated MIDO's contribution to the continuum of care of the main NCDs. DESIGN: Using data from MIDO and the chronic diseases information system, we quantified the proportion of the population screened and diagnosed with NCDs, and measured care linkage/retention and level of control achieved. We analysed comorbidity patterns and estimated prevalence of predisease stages. Finally, we estimated characteristics associated with unawareness and control of NCDs, and examined efficacy of the CASALUD model in improving NCD control. SETTING: Public primary health centres in 27/32 Mexican states. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged ≥20 years lacking healthcare access. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2018, 743 000 individuals were screened using MIDO. A predisease or disease condition was detected in ≥70% of the population who were unaware of their NCD status. The screening identified 38 417 new cases of type 2 diabetes, 53 133 new cases of hypertension and 208 627 individuals with obesity. Dyslipidaemia was found in 77.3% of individuals with available blood samples. Comorbidities were highly prevalent, especially in people with obesity. Only 5.47% (n=17 774) of individuals were linked with their corresponding primary health centre. Factors associated with unawareness of and uncontrolled NCDs were sex, age, and social determinants, for example, rural/urban environment, access to healthcare service, and education level. Patients with type 2 diabetes treated at clinics under the CASALUD model were more likely to achieve disease control (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.61). CONCLUSION: Patient-centred screening strategies such as MIDO are urgently needed to improve screening, access, retention and control for patients with NCDs.

Life expectancy, death, and disability in Haiti, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the magnitude and distribution of the main causes of death, disability, and risk factors in Haiti. METHODS: We conducted an ecological analysis, using data estimated from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 for the period 1990-2017, to present life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE) at under 1-year-old, cause-specific deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk factors associated with DALYs. RESULTS: LE and HALE increased substantially in Haiti. People may hope to live longer in 2017, but in poor health. The Caribbean countries had significantly lower YLLs rates than Haiti for ischemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and diarrheal diseases. Road injuries were the leading cause of DALYs for people aged 5-14 years. Road injuries and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of DALYs for men and women aged 15-49 years, respectively. Ischemic heart disease was the main cause of DALYs for people older than 50 years. Maternal and child malnutrition were the leading risk factors for DALYs in both sexes. CONCLUSION: Haiti faces a double burden of disease. Infectious diseases continue to be an issue, while non-communicable diseases have become a significant burden of disease. More attention must also be focused on the increase in worrying public health issues such as road injuries, exposure to forces of nature and HIV/AIDS in specific age groups. To address the burden of disease, sustained actions are needed to promote better health in Haiti and countries with similar challenges.

OBJETIVO: Investigar la magnitud y la distribución de las principales causas de muerte, discapacidad y factores de riesgo en Haití. MÉTODOS: Se llevó a cabo un análisis ecológico con datos estimados a partir del estudio Carga Global de Morbilidad 2017 para el período 1990-2017 para presentar la esperanza de vida (LE), la esperanza de vida saludable (HALE), la mortalidad por causas específicas, los años de vida perdidos (YLL), los años vividos con discapacidad (YLD), los años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (DALY), y los factores de riesgo asociados a los DALY. RESULTADOS: La LE y la HALE aumentaron sustancialmente en Haití. En 2017, la población puede esperar vivir más, pero con mala salud. Los países del Caribe tuvieron tasas de YLL significativamente más bajas que Haití en cuanto a cardiopatías isquémicas, accidentes cerebrovasculares, infecciones respiratorias bajas y enfermedades diarreicas. Las lesiones debidas a accidentes de tránsito fueron la principal causa de DALY para las personas de 5 a 14 años. Las lesiones debidas a accidentes de tránsito y el VIH/sida fueron las principales causas de DALY en hombres y mujeres de 15 a 49 años de edad, respectivamente. Las cardiopatías isquémicas fueron la principal causa de DALY para las personas mayores de 50 años. Las desnutriciones materna e infantil fueron los principales factores de riesgo de DALY en ambos sexos. CONCLUSIÓN: Haití se enfrenta a una doble carga de enfermedad. Las enfermedades infecciosas siguen siendo un problema, mientras que las enfermedades no transmisibles se han convertido en una carga significativa de enfermedad. También debe prestarse más atención al aumento de problemas de salud pública preocupantes, como las lesiones por accidentes de tránsito, la exposición a fenómenos naturales y el VIH/sida en grupos etarios específicos. Para hacer frente a la carga de morbilidad es necesario adoptar medidas sostenidas para promover una mejor salud en Haití y en los países con desafíos similares.

Advances and challenges on the path toward the SDGs: subnational inequalities in Mexico, 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) have generated momentum for global health, aligning efforts from governments and international organisations toward a set of goals that are expected to reflect improvements in life conditions across the globe. Mexico has huge social inequalities that can affect access to quality care and health outcomes. The objective of this study is to analyse inequalities among Mexico's 32 states on the health-related SDG indicators (HRSDGIs) from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: These analyses rely on the estimation of HRSDGIs as part of the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. We estimated the concentration index for 40+3 HRSDGI stratified by Socio-demographic Index and marginalisation index, and then for indicators where inequalities were identified, we ran decomposition analyses using structural variables such as gross domestic product per capita, poverty and health expenditure. FINDINGS: Mexico has made progress on most HRSDGIs, but current trends in improvement do not appear to fast enough to meet 2030 targets. Out of 43 HRSDGIs, we identified evidence of inequality between Mexico's states for 30 indicators; of those, 23 HRSDGIs were unequal distributed affecting states with lower development and seven affecting states with higher development. The decomposition analysis indicates that social determinants of health are major drivers of HRSDGI inequalities in Mexico. INTERPRETATION: Modifying current trends for HRSDGIs will require subnational-level and national-level policy action, of which should be informed by the latest available data and monitoring on the health-related SDGs. The SDGs' overarching objective of leaving no-one behind should be prioritised not only for individuals but also for communities and other subnational levels.

Life expectancy, death, and disability in Haiti, 1990- 2017: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. To investigate the magnitude and distribution of the main causes of death, disability, and risk factors in Haiti. Methods. We conducted an ecological analysis, using data estimated from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 for the period 1990-2017, to present life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE) at under 1-year-old, cause-specific deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk factors associated with DALYs. Results. LE and HALE increased substantially in Haiti. People may hope to live longer in 2017, but in poor health. The Caribbean countries had significantly lower YLLs rates than Haiti for ischemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and diarrheal diseases. Road injuries were the leading cause of DALYs for people aged 5-14 years. Road injuries and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of DALYs for men and women aged 15-49 years, respectively. Ischemic heart disease was the main cause of DALYs for people older than 50 years. Maternal and child malnutrition were the leading risk factors for DALYs in both sexes. Conclusion. Haiti faces a double burden of disease. Infectious diseases continue to be an issue, while non-communicable diseases have become a significant burden of disease. More attention must also be focused on the increase in worrying public health issues such as road injuries, exposure to forces of nature and HIV/AIDS in specific age groups. To address the burden of disease, sustained actions are needed to promote better health in Haiti and countries with similar challenges.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Investigar la magnitud y la distribución de las principales causas de muerte, discapacidad y factores de riesgo en Haití. Métodos. Se llevó a cabo un análisis ecológico con datos estimados a partir del estudio Carga Global de Morbilidad 2017 para el período 1990-2017 para presentar la esperanza de vida (LE), la esperanza de vida saludable (HALE), la mortalidad por causas específicas, los años de vida perdidos (YLL), los años vividos con discapacidad (YLD), los años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (DALY), y los factores de riesgo asociados a los DALY. Resultados. La LE y la HALE aumentaron sustancialmente en Haití. En 2017, la población puede esperar vivir más, pero con mala salud. Los países del Caribe tuvieron tasas de YLL significativamente más bajas que Haití en cuanto a cardiopatías isquémicas, accidentes cerebrovasculares, infecciones respiratorias bajas y enfermedades diarreicas. Las lesiones debidas a accidentes de tránsito fueron la principal causa de DALY para las personas de 5 a 14 años. Las lesiones debidas a accidentes de tránsito y el VIH/sida fueron las principales causas de DALY en hombres y mujeres de 15 a 49 años de edad, respectivamente. Las cardiopatías isquémicas fueron la principal causa de DALY para las personas mayores de 50 años. Las desnutriciones materna e infantil fueron los principales factores de riesgo de DALY en ambos sexos. Conclusión. Haití se enfrenta a una doble carga de enfermedad. Las enfermedades infecciosas siguen siendo un problema, mientras que las enfermedades no transmisibles se han convertido en una carga significativa de enfermedad. También debe prestarse más atención al aumento de problemas de salud pública preocupantes, como las lesiones por accidentes de tránsito, la exposición a fenómenos naturales y el VIH/sida en grupos etarios específicos. Para hacer frente a la carga de morbilidad es necesario adoptar medidas sostenidas para promover una mejor salud en Haití y en los países con desafíos similares.

The association of Native American genetic ancestry and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol: A representative study of a highly admixed population.

OBJECTIVE: Hispanic populations typically show a high prevalence of dyslipidemias, especially of low high-density lipoproteins (HDLs) or HDL cholesterol. Highly admixed populations are ideal groups to clarify the role of genetic ancestry on HDL concentrations, isolating it from that of other factors. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between Native American genetic ancestry and HDL-cholesterol levels independent of socioeconomic factors in a representative sample of the Mexican population. METHODS: We used data from the Mexican National Health Survey 2000, analyzing 1647 subjects from whom stored DNA samples and HDL measurements were available. To estimate proportional genetic ancestry (Native American, African, and European), we used a 107 genetic ancestry informative marker panel with the software STRUCTURE. To estimate the association between genetic ancestry and low HDL levels, we fitted logistic regression models with the percentage of Native American genetic ancestry, in quartiles, as the main predictor. RESULTS: Mean HDL levels were 38.9 mg/dL, with 62% of subjects having levels below 40 mg/dL. Participants had on average 53.6% Native American, 39% European, and 7.3% African genetic ancestry. Those in the fourth quartile of Native American genetic ancestry had 35% higher odds of having low HDL-cholesterol relative to those in the first quartile (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.81) after adjustment for socioeconomic level and other covariates, although the association is clearly nonlinear. CONCLUSION: Native American genetic ancestry seems to play a small but distinct role in the development of low HDL cholesterol levels.

Sitaglitpin phosphate treatment in patients with reactive hypoglycemia secondary to dysinsulinism. Controlled, randomized, double-blind study. / Tratamiento con fosfato de sitagliptina en pacientes con hipoglucemia reactiva secundaria a disinsulinismo. Estudio controlado, aleatorizado y doble ciego.

Objective: We evaluated the effect of sitagliptin in correction of symptomatic reactive hypoglycemia. Methods: Randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. Thirteen patients treated with sitagliptin and 15 with placebo, with mean age of 34.3 ± 10.6 years and body mass index of 24.6 ± 5.1 kg/m2, mostly women (n = 24, 85.7%), were evaluated. Results: Basal glycemia was similar in placebo versus sitagliptin (92.3 ± 18.9 vs. 93.4 ± 17.3 mg/dl; p = 0.41) as was median and interquartile range of insulin (15.2 [8.8-43.7] vs. 14.7 µU/ml [7.0-39.0]; p = 0.44). Patients with sitagliptin recovered the first phase insulin secretion (FISP). This was related with higher glucose level at the end of the oral glucose tolerance test (79.5 [74.2-83.0] vs. 83.5 [81.2-89.7]; p = 0.003) with a similar insulin median level (13.0 [5.0-34.4] vs. 13.8 [4.8-30.6]; p = 0.32). Symptomatology was significantly lower under sitagliptin treatment (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Sitagliptin improved FISP and reduced post-prandial symptomatology. These results suggest a novel therapeutic option for patients with reactive hypoglycemia related with FISP.