Factors associated with repeat emergency department visits for mental health care in adolescents: A scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this review was to identify factors associated with multiple visits to emergency department (ED) services for mental health care in adolescents. METHODS: Electronic databases (MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science and ProQuest Dissertations & Thesis Global) were searched for evidence that presented an association between risk factors or correlates of multiple visits to the emergency departmental for mental health care by 10-24 year olds. High impact use was defined as at least one return ED visit for mental health care. Primary studies of any quantitative design were included, with no exclusions based on language or country and all possible risk factors were considered. Data were extracted and synthesised using quantitative methods; frequencies of positive, negative and null associations were summarised for categories of potential risk factors. RESULTS: Sixty-five studies were included in the review. Most studies were from North America and reported a wide range of measures of high impact ED use, the most common being a binary indicator of multiple ED visits. Sex/gender and age were the most frequently reported risk factors. Measure of previous or concurrent access to mental health care was consistently positively associated with high impact use. Having private health insurance, compared with public or no insurance, was generally negatively associated with high impact use. Proxy measures of socioeconomic position (SEP) showed associations between lower SEP and more high impact use in a small number of studies. No other factors were consistently or uniformly associated with high impact use. CONCLUSIONS: The review identified a substantial evidence base but due to the variability in study design and measurement of both risk factors and outcomes, no consistent risk factors emerged. More research is needed, particularly outside North America, using robust methods and high quality routinely collected data.

Use of drugs for hyperlipidaemia and diabetes and risk of primary and secondary brain tumours: nested case-control studies using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have suggested that fibrates and glitazones may have a role in brain tumour prevention. We examined if there is support for these observations using primary care records from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). DESIGN: We conducted two nested case-control studies using primary and secondary brain tumours identified within CPRD between 2000 and 2016. We selected cases and controls among the population of individuals who had been treated with any anti-diabetic or anti-hyperlipidaemic medication to reduce confounding by indication. SETTING: Adults older than 18 years registered with a general practitioner in the UK contributing data to CPRD. RESULTS: We identified 7496 individuals with any brain tumour (4471 primary; 3025 secondary) in total. After restricting cases and controls to those prescribed any anti-diabetic or anti-hyperlipidaemic medication, there were 1950 cases and 7791 controls in the fibrate and 480 cases with 1920 controls in the glitazone analyses. Longer use of glitazones compared with all other anti-diabetic medications was associated with a reduced risk of primary (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.89 per year, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.98), secondary (aOR 0.87 per year, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.99) or combined brain tumours (aOR 0.88 per year, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.95). There was little evidence that fibrate exposure was associated with risk of either primary or secondary brain tumours. CONCLUSIONS: Longer exposure to glitazones was associated with reduced primary and secondary brain tumour risk. Further basic science and population-based research should explore this finding in greater detail, in terms of replication and mechanistic studies.

Antipsychotic Medication and Risk of Metabolic Disorders in People With Schizophrenia: A Longitudinal Study Using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Antipsychotics are first-line drug treatments for schizophrenia. When antipsychotic monotherapy is ineffective, combining two antipsychotic drugs is common although treatment guidelines warn of possible increases in side effects. Risks of metabolic side effects with antipsychotic polypharmacy have not been fully investigated. This study examined associations between antipsychotic polypharmacy and risk of developing diabetes, hypertension, or hyperlipidemia in adults with schizophrenia, and impact of co-prescription of first- and second-generation antipsychotics. STUDY DESIGN: A population-based prospective cohort study was conducted in the United Kingdom using linked primary care, secondary care, mental health, and social deprivation datasets. Cox proportional hazards models with stabilizing weights were used to estimate risk of metabolic disorders among adults with schizophrenia, comparing patients on antipsychotic monotherapy vs polypharmacy, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, and antipsychotic dose. STUDY RESULTS: Median follow-up time across the three cohorts was approximately 14 months. 6.6% developed hypertension in the cohort assembled for this outcome, with polypharmacy conferring an increased risk compared to monotherapy, (adjusted Hazard Ratio = 3.16; P = .021). Patients exposed to exclusive first-generation antipsychotic polypharmacy had greater risk of hypertension compared to those exposed to combined first- and second-generation polypharmacy (adjusted HR 0.29, P = .039). No associations between polypharmacy and risk of diabetes or hyperlipidemia were found. CONCLUSIONS: Antipsychotic polypharmacy, particularly polypharmacy solely comprised of first-generation antipsychotics, increased the risk of hypertension. Future research employing larger samples, follow-up longer than the current median of 14 months, and more complex methodologies may further elucidate the association reported in this study.

Quality improvement interventions to increase the uptake of magnesium sulphate in preterm deliveries for the prevention of cerebral palsy (PReCePT study): a cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To compare two quality improvement (QI) interventions to improve antenatal magnesium sulphate (MgSO4 ) uptake in preterm births for the prevention of cerebral palsy. DESIGN: Unblinded cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Academic Health Sciences Network, England, 2018. SAMPLE: Maternity units with ≥10 preterm deliveries annually and MgSO4 uptake of ≤70%; 40 (27 NPP, 13 enhanced support) were included (randomisation stratified by MgSO4 uptake). METHODS: The National PReCePT Programme (NPP) gave maternity units QI materials (clinical guidance, training), regional support, and midwife backfill funding. Enhanced support units received this plus extra backfill funding and unit-level QI coaching. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: MgSO4 uptake was compared using routine data and multivariable linear regression. Net monetary benefit was estimated, based on implementation costs, lifetime quality-adjusted life-years and societal costs. The implementation process was assessed through qualitative interviews. RESULTS: MgSO4 uptake increased in all units, with no evidence of any difference between groups (0.84 percentage points lower uptake in the enhanced group, 95% CI -5.03 to 3.35). The probability of enhanced support being cost-effective was <30%. NPP midwives gave more than their funded hours for implementation. Units varied in their support needs. Enhanced support units reported better understanding, engagement and perinatal teamwork. CONCLUSIONS: PReCePT improved MgSO4 uptake in all maternity units. Enhanced support did not further improve uptake but may improve teamwork, and more accurately represented the time needed for implementation. Targeted enhanced support, sustainability of improvements and the possible indirect benefits of stronger teamwork associated with enhanced support should be explored further.

Development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in England.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop a simulation model to support orthopaedic elective capacity planning. METHODS: An open-source, generalisable discrete-event simulation was developed, including a web-based application. The model used anonymised patient records between 2016 and 2019 of elective orthopaedic procedures from a National Health Service (NHS) Trust in England. In this paper, it is used to investigate scenarios including resourcing (beds and theatres) and productivity (lengths of stay, delayed discharges and theatre activity) to support planning for meeting new NHS targets aimed at reducing elective orthopaedic surgical backlogs in a proposed ring-fenced orthopaedic surgical facility. The simulation is interactive and intended for use by health service planners and clinicians. RESULTS: A higher number of beds (65-70) than the proposed number (40 beds) will be required if lengths of stay and delayed discharge rates remain unchanged. Reducing lengths of stay in line with national benchmarks reduces bed utilisation to an estimated 60%, allowing for additional theatre activity such as weekend working. Further, reducing the proportion of patients with a delayed discharge by 75% reduces bed utilisation to below 40%, even with weekend working. A range of other scenarios can also be investigated directly by NHS planners using the interactive web app. CONCLUSIONS: The simulation model is intended to support capacity planning of orthopaedic elective services by identifying a balance of capacity across theatres and beds and predicting the impact of productivity measures on capacity requirements. It is applicable beyond the study site and can be adapted for other specialties.

The impact of restricted provision of publicly funded elective hip and knee joints replacement during the COVID-19 pandemic in England.

AIMS: Elective hip and knee replacement operations were suspended in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this suspension and continued disruption to the delivery of joint replacement surgery is still emerging. We describe the impact of the pandemic on the provision of publicly funded elective hip and knee replacement surgery at one teaching hospital in England and on which patients had surgery. METHODS: We included all elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements performed at one hospital between January 2016 and June 2021. Using data for the years 2016-2019, we estimated the expected number of operations and beds occupied per month in January 2020 to June 2021 using time series linear models (adjusting for season and trend). We compared the predictions with the real data for January 2020 to June 2021 to assess the impact of the pandemic on the provision of elective hip and knee replacements. We compared the length of stay and characteristics (age, gender, number of comorbidities, index of multiple deprivation) of patients who had surgery before the pandemic with those who had surgery during the pandemic. RESULTS: We included 6,964 elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements between January 2016 and June 2021. Between January 2020 and June 2021 primary hip replacement volume was 59% of predicted, and 47% for primary knee replacements. Revision hip replacement volume was 77% of predicted, and 42% for revision knee replacement. Median length of stay was one day shorter for primary (4 vs 3 days) and revision (6 vs 5 days) operations during the pandemic compared with before. Patients operated on during the pandemic were younger and had slightly more comorbidities than those operated on before the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The restricted provision of elective hip and knee replacements during the COVID-19 pandemic changed the patient casemix, but did not introduce new inequalities in access to these operations. Patients were younger, had more comorbidities, and stayed in hospital for less time than those treated before the pandemic. Approximately half the number of operations were performed during the pandemic than would have been expected and the effect was greatest for revision knee replacements.

Access to publicly funded weight management services in England using routine data from primary and secondary care (2007-2020): An observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Adults living with overweight/obesity are eligible for publicly funded weight management (WM) programmes according to national guidance. People with the most severe and complex obesity are eligible for bariatric surgery. Primary care plays a key role in identifying overweight/obesity and referring to WM interventions. This study aimed to (1) describe the primary care population in England who (a) are referred for WM interventions and (b) undergo bariatric surgery and (2) determine the patient and GP practice characteristics associated with both. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An observational cohort study was undertaken using routinely collected primary care data in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics. During the study period (January 2007 to June 2020), 1,811,587 adults met the inclusion criteria of a recording of overweight/obesity in primary care, of which 54.62% were female and 20.10% aged 45 to 54. Only 56,783 (3.13%) were referred to WM, and 3,701 (1.09% of those with severe and complex obesity) underwent bariatric surgery. Multivariable Poisson regression examined the associations of demographic, clinical, and regional characteristics on the likelihood of WM referral and bariatric surgery. Higher body mass index (BMI) and practice region had the strongest associations with both outcomes. People with BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were more than 6 times as likely to be referred for WM (10.05% of individuals) than BMI 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m2 (1.34%) (rate ratio (RR) 6.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) [5.99,6.40], p < 0.001). They were more than 5 times as likely to undergo bariatric surgery (3.98%) than BMI 35.0 to 40.0 kg/m2 with a comorbidity (0.53%) (RR 5.52, 95% CI [5.07,6.02], p < 0.001). Patients from practices in the West Midlands were the most likely to have a WM referral (5.40%) (RR 2.17, 95% CI [2.10,2.24], p < 0.001, compared with the North West, 2.89%), and practices from the East of England least likely (1.04%) (RR 0.43, 95% CI [0.41,0.46], p < 0.001, compared with North West). Patients from practices in London were the most likely to undergo bariatric surgery (2.15%), and practices in the North West the least likely (0.68%) (RR 3.29, 95% CI [2.88,3.76], p < 0.001, London compared with North West). Longer duration since diagnosis with severe and complex obesity (e.g., 1.67% of individuals diagnosed in 2007 versus 0.34% in 2015, RR 0.20, 95% CI [0.12,0.32], p < 0.001), and increasing comorbidities (e.g., 2.26% of individuals with 6+ comorbidities versus 1.39% with none (RR 8.79, 95% CI [7.16,10.79], p < 0.001) were also strongly associated with bariatric surgery. The main limitation is the reliance on overweight/obesity being recorded within primary care records to identify the study population. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2007 and 2020, a very small percentage of the primary care population eligible for WM referral or bariatric surgery according to national guidance received either. Higher BMI and GP practice region had the strongest associations with both. Regional inequalities may reflect differences in commissioning and provision of WM services across the country. Multi-stakeholder qualitative research is ongoing to understand the barriers to accessing WM services and potential solutions. Together with population-wide prevention strategies, improved access to WM interventions is needed to reduce obesity levels.

Impact of pausing elective hip and knee replacement surgery during 2017 on subsequent service provision at a major NHS Trust: a descriptive observational study using interrupted time series.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the impact of a temporary cancellation of elective surgery in winter 2017 on trends in primary hip and knee replacement at a major National Health Service (NHS) Trust, and whether lessons can be learnt about efficient surgery provision. DESIGN AND SETTING: Observational descriptive study using interrupted time series analysis of hospital records to explore trends in primary hip and knee replacement surgery at a major NHS Trust, as well as patient characteristics, 2016-2019. INTERVENTION: A temporary cancellation of elective services for 2 months in winter 2017. OUTCOMES: NHS-funded hospital admissions for primary hip or knee replacement, length of stay and bed occupancy. Additionally, we explored the ratio of elective to emergency admissions at the Trust as a measure of elective capacity, and the ratio of public to private provision of NHS-funded hip and knee surgery. RESULTS: After winter 2017, there was a sustained reduction in the number of knee replacements, a decrease in the proportion of most deprived people having knee replacements and an increase in average age for knee replacement and comorbidity for both types of surgery. The ratio of public to private provision dropped after winter 2017, and elective capacity generally has reduced over time. There was clear seasonality in provision of elective surgery, with less complex patients admitted during winter. CONCLUSIONS: Declining elective capacity and seasonality has a marked effect on the provision of joint replacement, despite efficiency improvements in hospital treatment. The Trust has outsourced less complex patients to independent providers, and/or treated them during winter when capacity is most limited. There is a need to explore whether these are strategies that could be used explicitly to maximise the use of limited elective capacity, provide benefit to patients and value for money for taxpayers.

Factors related to adverse long-term outcomes after mild traumatic brain injury in children: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: To identify demographic, premorbid and injury-related factors, or biomarkers associated with long-term (≥3 months) adverse outcomes in children after mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). DESIGN: Scoping review of literature. PATIENTS: Children and adolescents with mTBI. RISK FACTORS: Any demographic, premorbid and injury-related factors, or biomarkers were included. We excluded genetic and treatment-related factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Postconcussion syndrome (PCS), recovery. RESULTS: Seventy-three publications were included, reporting 12 long-term adverse outcomes, including PCS in 12 studies and recovery in 29 studies. Additional outcomes studied were symptom scores/severity (n=22), quality of life (n=9) and cognitive function (n=9). Forty-nine risk factors were identified across studies. Risk factors most often assessed were sex (n=28), followed by age (n=23), injury mechanism = (n=22) and prior mTBI (n=18). The influence of these and other risk factors on outcomes of mTBI were inconsistent across the reviewed literature. CONCLUSIONS: The most researched risk factors are sex, age and mechanism of injury, but their effects have been estimated inconsistently and did not show a clear pattern. The most studied outcomes are recovery patterns and symptom severity. However, these may not be the most important outcomes for clinicians and patients. Future primary studies in this area should focus on patient-important outcomes. Population-based prospective studies are needed that address prespecified hypotheses on the relationship of risk factors with given outcomes to enable reliable prediction of long-term adverse outcomes for childhood mTBI.

Interrupted time series evaluation of the impact of a dementia wellbeing service on avoidable hospital admissions for people with dementia in Bristol, England.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether a dementia wellbeing service (DWS) signposting people with dementia to community services decreases the rate of avoidable hospital admissions, in-hospital mortality, complexity of admissions (number of comorbidities) or length of stay. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis to estimate the effects of the DWS on hospital outcomes. We included all unplanned admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions ('avoidable hospital admissions') with a dementia diagnosis recorded in the Hospital Episode Statistics. The intervention region was compared with a demographically similar control region in the 2 years before and 3 years after the implementation of the new service (October 2013 to September 2018). RESULTS: There was no strong evidence that admission rates reduced and only weak evidence that the trend in average length of stay reduced slowly over time. In-hospital mortality decreased immediately after the introduction of the dementia wellbeing service compared to comparator areas (x0.64, 95% CI 0.42, 0.97, p = 0.037) but attenuated over the following years. The rate of increase in comorbidities also appeared to slow after the service began; they were similar to comparator areas by September 2018. CONCLUSIONS: We found no major impact of the DWS on avoidable hospital admissions, although there was weak evidence for slightly shorter length of stay and reduced complexity of hospital admissions. These findings may or may not reflect a true benefit of the service and require further investigation. The DWS was established to improve quality of dementia care; reducing hospital admissions was never its sole purpose. More targeted interventions may be required to reduce hospital admissions for people with dementia.

Impact of rapid near-patient STI testing on service delivery outcomes in an integrated sexual health service in the United Kingdom: a controlled interrupted time series study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of a new clinic-based rapid sexually transmitted infection testing, diagnosis and treatment service on healthcare delivery and resource needs in an integrated sexual health service. DESIGN: Controlled interrupted time series study. SETTING: Two integrated sexual health services (SHS) in UK: Unity Sexual Health in Bristol, UK (intervention site) and Croydon Sexual Health in London (control site). PARTICIPANTS: Electronic patient records for all 58 418 attendances during the period 1 year before and 1 year after the intervention. INTERVENTION: Introduction of an in-clinic rapid testing system for gonorrhoea and chlamydia in combination with revised treatment pathways. OUTCOME MEASURES: Time-to-test notification, staff capacity, cost per episode of care and overall service costs. We also assessed rates of gonorrhoea culture swabs, follow-up attendances and examinations. RESULTS: Time-to-notification and the rate of gonorrhoea swabs significantly decreased following implementation of the new system. There was no evidence of change in follow-up visits or examination rates for patients seen in clinic related to the new system. Staff capacity in clinics appeared to be maintained across the study period. Overall, the number of episodes per week was unchanged in the intervention site, and the mean cost per episode decreased by 7.5% (95% CI 5.7% to 9.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The clear improvement in time-to-notification, while maintaining activity at a lower overall cost, suggests that the implementation of clinic-based testing had the intended impact, which bolsters the case for more widespread rollout in sexual health services.

National PReCePT Programme: a before-and-after evaluation of the implementation of a national quality improvement programme to increase the uptake of magnesium sulfate in preterm deliveries.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the National PReCePT Programme (NPP) in increasing use of magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) in preterm births. DESIGN: Before-and-after study. SETTING: Maternity units (N=137) within NHS England and the Academic Health Science Network (AHSN) in 2018. PARTICIPANTS: Babies born ≤30 weeks' gestation admitted to neonatal units in England. INTERVENTIONS: The NPP was a quality improvement (QI) intervention including the PReCePT (Preventing Cerebral Palsy in Pre Term labour) QI toolkit and materials (preterm labour proforma, staff training presentations, parent leaflet, posters for the unit and learning log), regional AHSN-level support, and up to 90 hours funded backfill for a midwife 'champion' to lead implementation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: MgSO4 uptake post implementation was compared with pre-NPP implementation uptake. Implementation and lifetime costs were estimated. RESULTS: Compared with pre-implementation estimates, the average MgSO4 uptake for babies born ≤30 weeks' gestation, in 137 maternity units in England, increased by 6.3 percentage points (95% CI 2.6 to 10.0 percentage points) to 83.1% post implementation, accounting for unit size, maternal, baby and maternity unit factors, time trends, and AHSN. Further adjustment for early/late initiation of NPP activities increased the estimate to 9.5 percentage points (95% CI 4.3 to 14.7 percentage points). From a societal and lifetime perspective, the health gains and cost savings associated with the NPP effectiveness generated a net monetary benefit of £866 per preterm baby and the probability of the NPP being cost-effective was greater than 95%. CONCLUSION: This national QI programme was effective and cost-effective. National programmes delivered via coordinated regional clinical networks can accelerate uptake of evidence-based therapies in perinatal care.

Identification of risk factors associated with prolonged hospital stay following primary knee replacement surgery: a retrospective, longitudinal observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify risk factors associated with prolonged length of hospital stay and staying in hospital longer than medically necessary following primary knee replacement surgery. DESIGN: Retrospective, longitudinal observational study. SETTING: Elective knee replacement surgeries between 2016 and 2019 were identified using routinely collected data from an NHS Trust in England. PARTICIPANTS: There were 2295 knee replacement patients with complete data included in analysis. The mean age was 68 (SD 11) and 60% were female. OUTCOME MEASURES: We assessed a binary length of stay outcome (>7 days), a continuous length of stay outcome (≤30 days) and a binary measure of whether patients remained in hospital when they were medically fit for discharge. RESULTS: The mean length of stay was 5.0 days (SD 3.9), 15.4% of patients were in hospital for >7 days and 7.1% remained in hospital when they were medically fit for discharge. Longer length of stay was associated with older age (b=0.08, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.09), female sex (b=0.36, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.67), high deprivation (b=0.98, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.48) and more comorbidities (b=2.48, 95% CI 0.15 to 4.81). Remaining in hospital beyond being medically fit for discharge was associated with older age (OR=1.07, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.09), female sex (OR=1.71, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.47) and high deprivation (OR=2.27, 95% CI 1.27 to 4.06). CONCLUSIONS: The regression models could be used to identify which patients are likely to occupy hospital beds for longer. This could be helpful in scheduling operations to aid hospital efficiency by planning these patients' operations for when the hospital is less busy.

Educational interventions to prevent paediatric abusive head trauma in babies younger than one year old: A systematic review and meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Paediatric abusive head trauma (AHT) occurs in young children due to violent shaking or blunt impact. Educational and behavioural programmes modifying parent/infant interactions may aid primary prevention. This systematic review aims to assess the effectiveness of such interventions to prevent AHT in infants. METHODS: We searched Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, The Cochrane library, CINAHL databases and trial registries to September 2021, for studies assessing the effectiveness of educational and behavioural interventions in preventing AHT. Eligible interventions had to include messaging about avoiding or dangers of infant shaking. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) reporting results for primary (AHT, infant shaking) or secondary outcomes (including parental responses to infant crying, mental wellbeing), and non-randomised studies (NRSs) reporting primary outcomes were included. Evidence from combinable studies was synthesised using random-effects meta-analyses. Certainty of evidence was assessed using GRADE framework. PROSPERO registration CRD42020195644. FINDINGS: Of 25 identified studies, 16 were included in meta-analyses. Five NRSs reported results for AHT, of which four were meta-analysed (summary odds ratio [OR] 0.95, 95 % confidence intervals [CI] 0.80-1.13). Two studies assessed self-reported shaking (one cluster-RCT, OR 0.11, 95 % CI 0.02-0.53; one cohort study, OR 0.36, 95 % CI 0.20-0.64, not pooled). Meta-analyses of secondary outcomes demonstrated marginal improvements in parental response to inconsolable crying (summary mean difference 1.58, 95 % CI 0.11-3.06, on a 100-point scale) and weak evidence that interventions increased walking away from crying infants (summary incidence rate ratio 1.52, 95 % CI 0.94-2.45). No intervention effects were found in meta-analyses of parental mental wellbeing or other responses to crying. INTERPRETATION: Low certainty evidence suggests that educational programmes for AHT prevention are not effective in preventing AHT. There is low to moderate certainty evidence that educational interventions have no effect or only marginally improve some parental responses to infant crying.

Providing men at risk of suicide with emotional support and advice with employment, housing and financial difficulties: a qualitative evaluation of the Hope service.

BACKGROUND: Men at risk of suicide often face difficulties with finances, employment, or housing, yet support services are usually psychologically based. This study evaluated the Hope service which provides integrated psychosocial support alongside practical, financial and specialist advice. AIMS: To examine how the Hope service supports men at risk of suicide and factors that influence its impact and usefulness. METHODS: Twenty-six qualitative interviews with 16 service users, six Hope staff, two specialist money advice workers funded to work for Hope and two NHS referral staff, thematically analysed. RESULTS: The Hope service provided an essential service for men at risk of suicide, with complex needs including addiction, job loss, homelessness, debt, relationship-breakdown and bereavement who often would otherwise have fallen through service provision gaps. Working in a person-centred, non-judgemental way elicited trust and specialist advice tackled problems such as housing needs, debt, benefit claims and employment, enabling men to regain a sense of control over their lives. Some men shared histories of abuse, for which specialist counselling was hard to access. CONCLUSIONS: Hope provides an effective integrated support package for suicidal men. Funding for services like Hope are important to tackle structural issues such as homelessness and debt, alongside emotional support.

Preventing male suicide through a psychosocial intervention that provides psychological support and tackles financial difficulties: a mixed method evaluation.

BACKGROUND: To help resolve high suicide rates in Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire, the charity Second Step was commissioned to roll-out the Hope service offering a psychosocial intervention for men, supporting them through acute distress and addressing financial difficulties. This study evaluated the impact of the Hope service on men at risk of suicide experiencing financial and other difficulties. METHODS: Mixed methods study using: (i) a prospective cohort study design to compare depression, suicidal ideation and financial self-efficacy scores of men aged 30-64, referred to the service between October 2018 and July 2020, at baseline and 6 months follow-up and between low and moderate to high-intensity service users; and (ii) a qualitative interview study to evaluate the acceptability and impact of the Hope service to Hope service users. RESULTS: There was a 49% reduction in depression score (mean reduction - 10.0, 95% CI - 11.7 to - 8.3) and in the proportion of service users with suicidal ideation (percent reduction - 52.5, 95% CI - 64.1% to - 40.9%) at 6 months follow-up compared to baseline. Financial self-efficacy scores increased by 26% (mean increase 2.9, 95% CI 1.8 to 3.9). Qualitative accounts illustrated how 'Hope saved my life' for several men interviewed; most respondents described being able to move forward and tackle challenges with more confidence following the Hope intervention. Professional advice to tackle financial and other difficulties such as housing helped to relieve anxiety and stress and enable practical issues to be resolved. CONCLUSIONS: The Hope service offered practical and emotional support to men who have experienced suicidal feelings, redundancy, homelessness and poverty and occupies an important space between mental health and social care provision. Hope demonstrates the value of an intervention which cuts across traditional boundaries between psychiatric care and social advice agencies to provide, what is, in effect, an integrated care service.

Can we accurately forecast non-elective bed occupancy and admissions in the NHS? A time-series MSARIMA analysis of longitudinal data from an NHS Trust.

OBJECTIVES: The main objective of the study was to develop more accurate and precise short-term forecasting models for admissions and bed occupancy for an NHS Trust located in Bristol, England. Subforecasts for the medical and surgical specialties, and for different lengths of stay were realised DESIGN: Autoregressive integrated moving average models were specified on a training dataset of daily count data, then tested on a 6-week forecast horizon. Explanatory variables were included in the models: day of the week, holiday days, lagged temperature and precipitation. SETTING: A secondary care hospital in an NHS Trust in South West England. PARTICIPANTS: Hospital admissions between September 2016 and March 2020, comprising 1291 days. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The accuracy of the forecasts was assessed through standard measures, as well as compared with the actual data using accuracy thresholds of 10% and 20% of the mean number of admissions or occupied beds. RESULTS: The overall Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) admissions forecast was compared with the Trust's forecast, and found to be more accurate, namely, being closer to the actual value 95.6% of the time. Furthermore, it was more precise than the Trust's. The subforecasts, as well as those for bed occupancy, tended to be less accurate compared with the overall forecasts. All of the explanatory variables improved the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: ARIMA models can forecast non-elective admissions in an NHS Trust accurately on a 6-week horizon, which is an improvement on the current predictive modelling in the Trust. These models can be readily applied to other contexts, improving patient flow.

Regression discontinuity analysis for pharmacovigilance: statin example reflected trial findings showing little evidence of harm.

OBJECTIVES: The study aims to explore the use of regression discontinuity analysis (RDA) to examine effects of prescription of statins on total cholesterol and adverse outcomes (type 2 diabetes, rhabdomyolysis and myopathy, myalgia and myositis, liver disease, CVD, and mortality). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a prospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink including patients with QRISK scores of 10 to 30 in 2010 to 2013 who were last followed-up in October 2016. Comparing patients with QRISK≥20 and QRISK<20, we explored RDA assumptions, provided proof of concept analyses (total cholesterol as outcome), and investigated the effect of statins prescription on adverse outcomes. RESULT: RDA confirmed statin prescription reduced total cholesterol (Mean difference (MD) -1.33 mmol/L, 95%Confidence Interval (CI) -1.93 to -0.73). RDA provided little evidence for adverse effects on diabetes, myalgia and myositis, liver disease, CVD, or mortality. The RDA analysis findings are similar to RCT results. Findings from non-RDA analysis agree with published observational studies. CONCLUSION: RDA can be used with large routine clinical datasets to provide evidence on effects of medications which are prescribed according to a threshold. Testable RDA assumptions were satisfied, but confidence intervals were wide, partly due to the low compliance with the prescribing threshold.

Self-harm and suicide during and after opioid agonist treatment among primary care patients in England: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The first 4 weeks after initiation and cessation of opioid agonist treatment for opioid dependence are associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality and overdose. We aimed to investigate whether the rate of self-harm and suicide among people who were prescribed opioid agonist treatment differs during initiation, cessation, and the remainder of time on and off treatment. METHODS: We did a retrospective cohort study and used health-care records from UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linked to mortality and hospital admission data, for adults (age 18-75 years at cohort entry) who were prescribed opioid agonist treatment at least once in primary care in England between Jan 2, 1998, and Nov 30, 2018. We estimated rates and adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) of hospital admissions for self-harm and death by suicide, comparing time during and after treatment, as well as comparing stable periods of time on treatment with treatment initiation, cessation, and the remaining time off treatment. FINDINGS: Between Jan 2, 1998, and Nov 30, 2018, 8070 patients (5594 [69·3%] men and 2476 [30·7%] women) received 17 004 episodes of opioid agonist treatment over 40 599 person-years. Patients were mostly of White ethnicity (7006 [86·8%] patients). 807 episodes of self-harm (1·99 per 100 person-years) and 46 suicides (0·11 per 100 person-years) occurred during the study period. The overall age-standardised and sex-standardised mortality ratio for suicide was 7·5 times (95% CI 5·5-10·0) higher in the study cohort than in the general population. Opioid agonist treatment was associated with a reduced risk of self-harm (aRR in periods off treatment 1·50 [95% CI 1·21-1·88]), but was not significantly associated with suicide risk (aRR in periods off treatment 1·21 [0·64-2·28]). Risk of self-harm (aRR 2·60 [95% CI 1·83-3·70]) and suicide (4·68 [1·63-13·42]) were both elevated in the first 4 weeks after stopping opioid agonist treatment compared with stable periods on treatment. INTERPRETATION: Stable periods of opioid agonist treatment are associated with reduced risk of self-harm, emphasising the importance of improving retention of patients in treatment. The first month following cessation of opioid agonist treatment is a period of increased risk of suicide and self-harm, during which additional psychosocial support is required. FUNDING: Medical Research Council.

Associations of GP practice characteristics with the rate of ambulatory care sensitive conditions in people living with dementia in England: an ecological analysis of routine data.

BACKGROUND: Hospital admissions for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSCs) are potentially avoidable. Dementia is one of the leading chronic conditions in terms of variability in ACSC admissions by general practice, as well as accounting for around a third of UK emergency admissions. METHODS: Using Bayesian multilevel linear regression models, we examined the ecological association of organizational characteristics of general practices (ACSC n=7076, non-ACSC n=7046 units) and Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCG n=212 units) in relation to ACSC and non-ACSC admissions for people with dementia in England. RESULTS: The rate of hospital admissions are variable between GP practices, with deprivation and being admitted from home as risk factors for admission for ACSC and non-ACSC admissions. The budget allocated by the CCG to mental health shows diverging effects for ACSC versus non-ACSC admissions, so it is likely there is some geographic variation. CONCLUSIONS: A variety of factors that could explain avoidable admissions for PWD at the practice level were examined; most were equally predictive for avoidable and non-avoidable admissions. However, a high amount of variation found at the practice level, in conjunction with the diverging effects of the CCG mental health budget, implies that guidance may be applied inconsistently, or local services may have differences in referral criteria. This indicates there is potential scope for improvement.