ABSTRACT
Evaluation metrics for prediction error, model selection and model averaging on space-time data are understudied and poorly understood. The absence of independent replication makes prediction ambiguous as a concept and renders evaluation procedures developed for independent data inappropriate for most space-time prediction problems. Motivated by air pollution data collected during California wildfires in 2008, this manuscript attempts a formalization of the true prediction error associated with spatial interpolation. We investigate a variety of cross-validation (CV) procedures employing both simulations and case studies to provide insight into the nature of the estimand targeted by alternative data partition strategies. Consistent with recent best practice, we find that location-based cross-validation is appropriate for estimating spatial interpolation error as in our analysis of the California wildfire data. Interestingly, commonly held notions of bias-variance trade-off of CV fold size do not trivially apply to dependent data, and we recommend leave-one-location-out (LOLO) CV as the preferred prediction error metric for spatial interpolation.
ABSTRACT
Fine particulate air pollution (PM2.5) is decreasing in most areas of the United States, except for areas most affected by wildfires, where increasing trends in PM2.5 can be attributed to wildfire smoke. The frequency and duration of large wildfires and the length of the wildfire season have all increased in recent decades, partially due to climate change, and wildfire risk is projected to increase further in many regions including the western United States. Increasingly, empirical evidence suggests differential health effects from air pollution by class and race; however, few studies have investigated such differential health impacts from air pollution during a wildfire event. We investigated differential risk of respiratory health impacts during the 2008 northern California wildfires by a comprehensive list of socio-economic status (SES), race/ethnicity, and smoking prevalence variables. Regardless of SES level across nine measures of SES, we found significant associations between PM2.5 and asthma hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits during these wildfires. Differential respiratory health risk was found by SES for ED visits for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease where the highest risks were in ZIP codes with the lowest SES levels. Findings for differential effects by race/ethnicity were less consistent across health outcomes. We found that ZIP codes with higher prevalence of smokers had greater risk of ED visits for asthma and pneumonia. Our study suggests that public health efforts to decrease exposures to high levels of air pollution during wildfires should focus on lower SES communities.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, and substantial research has linked ambient air pollution to elevated rates of CVD etiology and events. Much of this research identified increased effects of air pollution in lower socioeconomic position (SEP) communities, where pollution exposures are also often higher. The complex spatial confounding between air pollution and SEP makes it very challenging, however, to disentangle the impacts of these very different exposure types and to accurately assess their interactions. The specific causal components (i.e., specific social stressors) underlying this SEP-related susceptibility remain unknown, because there are myriad pathways through which poverty and/or lower-SEP conditions may influence pollution susceptibility - including diet, smoking, coexposures in the home and occupational environments, health behaviors, and healthcare access. Growing evidence suggests that a substantial portion of SEP-related susceptibility may be due to chronic psychosocial stress - given the known wide-ranging impacts of chronic stress on immune, endocrine, and metabolic function - and to a higher prevalence of unpredictable chronic stressors in many lower-SEP communities, including violence, job insecurity, and housing instability. As such, elucidating susceptibility to pollution in the etiology of CVD, and in the risk of CVD events, has been identified as a research priority. This interplay among social and environmental conditions may be particularly relevant for CVD, because pollution and chronic stress both impact inflammation, metabolic function, oxidative stress, hypertension, atherosclerosis, and other processes relevant to CVD etiology. Because pollution exposures are often spatially patterned by SEP, disentangling their effects - and quantifying any interplay - is especially challenging. Doing so, however, would help to improve our ability to identify and characterize susceptible populations and to improve our understanding of how community stressors may alter responses to multiple air pollutants. More clearly characterizing susceptible populations will improve our ability to design and target interventions more effectively (and cost-effectively) and may reveal greater benefits of pollution reduction in susceptible communities, strengthening cost-benefit and accountability analyses, ultimately reducing the disproportionate burden of CVD and reducing health disparities. METHODS: In the current study, we aimed to quantify combined effects of multiple pollutants and stressor exposures on CVD events, using a number of unique datasets we have compiled and verified, including the following. 1. Poverty metrics, violent crime rates, a composite socioeconomic deprivation index (SDI), an index of racial and economic segregation, noise disturbance metrics, and three composite spatial factors produced from a factor analysis of 27 community stressors. All indicators have citywide coverage and were verified against individual reports of stress and stressor exposure, in citywide focus groups and surveys. 2. Spatial surfaces for multiple pollutants from the New York City (NYC) Community Air Survey (NYCCAS), which monitored multiple pollutants year-round at 150 sites and used land use regression (LUR) modeling to estimate fine-scale (100-m) intra-urban spatial variance in fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3). 3. Daily data and time-trends derived from all U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) monitors in NYC for 2005-2011, which we combined with NYCCAS surfaces to create residence- and day-specific spatiotemporal exposure estimates. 4. Complete data on in- and out-patient unscheduled CVD events presented in NYC hospitals for 2005-2011 (n = 1,113,185) from the New York State (NYS) Department of Health's Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS). In the study, we quantified relationships between multiple pollutant exposures and both community CVD event rates and individual risk of CVD events in NYC and tested whether pollution-CVD associations varied by community SEP and social stressor exposures. We hypothesized (1) that greater chronic community-level SEP, stressor, and pollution exposures would be associated with higher community CVD rates; (2) that spatiotemporal variations in multiple pollutants would be associated with excess risk of CVD events; and (3) that pollution-CVD associations would be stronger in communities of lower SEP or higher stressor exposures. RESULTS: To first understand the separate and combined associations with CVD for both stressors and pollutants measured at the same spatial and temporal scale of resolution, we used ecological cross-sectional models to examine spatial relationships between multiple chronic pollutant and stressor exposures and age-adjusted community CVD rates. Using census-tract-level annual averages (n = 2,167), we compared associations with CVD rates for multiple pollutant concentrations and social stressors. We found that associations with community CVD rates were consistently stronger for social stressors than for pollutants, in terms of both magnitude and significance. We note, however, that this result may be driven by the relatively greater variation (on a proportional basis) for stressors than for pollutants in NYC. We also tested effect modification of pollutant-CVD associations by each social stressor and found evidence of stronger associations for NO2, PM2.5, and wintertime SO2 with CVD rates, particularly across quintiles of increasing community violence or assault rates (P trend < 0.0001). To examine individual-level associations between spatiotemporal exposures to multiple pollutants and the risk of CVD events, across multiple lag days, we examined the combined effects of multiple pollutant exposures, using spatiotemporal (day- and residence-specific) pollution exposure estimates and hospital data on individual CVD events in case-crossover models, which inherently adjust for nontime-varying individual confounders (e.g., sex and race) and comorbidities. We found consistent significant relationships only for same-day pollutant exposures and the risk of CVD events, suggesting very acute impacts of pollution on CVD risk. Associations with CVD were positive for NO2, PM2.5, and SO2, as hypothesized, and we found inverse associations for O3 (a secondary pollutant chemically decreased ["scavenged"] by fresh emissions that, in NYC, displays spatial and temporal patterns opposite those of NO2). Finally, to test effect modification by chronic community social stressors on the relationships between spatiotemporal pollution measures and the risk of CVD events, we used individual-level case-crossover models, adding interaction terms with categorical versions of each social stressor. We found that associations between NO2 and the risk of CVD events were significantly elevated only in communities with the highest exposures to social stressors (i.e., in the highest quintiles of poverty, socioeconomic deprivation, violence, or assault). The largest positive associations for PM2.5 and winter SO2 were generally found in the highest-stressor communities but were not significant in any quintile. We again found inverse associations for O3, which were likewise stronger for individuals living in communities with greater stressor exposures. CONCLUSIONS: In ecological models, we found stronger relationships with community CVD rates for social stressors than for pollutant exposures. In case-crossover analyses, higher exposures to NO2, PM2.5, and SO2 were associated with greater excess risk of CVD events but only on the case day (there were no consistent significant lagged-day effects). In effect-modification analyses at both the community and individual level, we found evidence of stronger pollution-CVD associations in communities with higher stressor exposures. Given substantial spatial confounding across multiple social stressors, further research is needed to disentangle these effects in order to identify the predominant social stressors driving this observed differential susceptibility.
Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , Cardiovascular Diseases , Air Pollutants/adverse effects , Air Pollution/adverse effects , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Environmental Exposure/adverse effects , Humans , New York City , Nitrogen Dioxide/analysis , Particulate Matter/adverse effectsABSTRACT
Aims: To characterise and classify wounds in sheep suspected to have been caused by attacks by kea (Nestor notabilis) (kea strike), and to report the prevalence of these wounds on five high country farms in the South Island of New Zealand.Methods: Data were collected from farms between 28 August 2012 and 20 September 2013. Sheep were examined opportunistically immediately after shearing for signs of wounds caused by kea. The age and sex of sheep were also recorded. Wounds were measured and characterised as recent, healing, or healed, and the estimated true prevalence was calculated for each farm.Results: Injuries consistent with kea strike wounds were identified in 70/13,978 (0.5%) sheep examined. The estimated true prevalence varied between farms, from 0 (95% CI = 0-0.16) to 1.25 (95% CI = 0.97-1.61)%. Of the 76 wounds identified, 61 (80%) were located in the lumbar region, and 74 (97%) consisted of full-thickness ulceration of the skin, one showed evidence of injury to muscle and one to bone. The median length of the 63 wounds measured was 6 (min 1, max 23.5) cm, and 10/63 (13%) were categorised as recently healed, 47/63 (62%) as healing, and 17/63 (22%) as recent wounds.Conclusions: The results of this study show that kea strike on sheep was occurring at a low prevalence on the high country farms surveyed. The wounds identified were survivable, but the welfare impact of kea strike on sheep should be considered in balance with the conservation status of kea. There was clear variation in the prevalence of wounds attributed to kea strike between the farms but we were not able to identify the risk factors contributing to these differences. Future studies of kea strike should examine variables such as altitude, local kea density and distribution, and differences in kea strike management and husbandry practices, and should include high country farms without a history of kea strike.
Subject(s)
Bites and Stings , Parrots/physiology , Sheep/injuries , Wounds and Injuries/veterinary , Animals , New Zealand/epidemiology , Prevalence , Wounds and Injuries/epidemiology , Wounds and Injuries/pathologyABSTRACT
The challenges in the management of treatment-resistant rapid-cycling bipolar disorder are multifaceted and represent a significant burden to the patient. There is a need for more exploration into the potential utility of various combination therapies in the setting of severe affective states. A 52-year-old woman with a history of severe treatment-resistant rapid-cycling bipolar affective disorder (BPAD) was hospitalized for the treatment of a severe mixed episode. The introduction of lamotrigine and clozapine in combination proved remarkably effective and well tolerated in both the acute management and in subsequent maintenance. The patient has remained asymptomatic during the 5-year follow-up without any further mood disturbance. Lamotrigine and clozapine are among the less-prescribed agents for BPAD and there is as yet little research into their use in combination. It is possible that these agents have complementary modes of action on various facets of the affective pathology, resulting in superior mood stabilization in this patient.
Subject(s)
Antipsychotic Agents/therapeutic use , Bipolar Disorder/drug therapy , Clozapine/therapeutic use , Triazines/therapeutic use , Antipsychotic Agents/administration & dosage , Antipsychotic Agents/adverse effects , Bipolar Disorder/physiopathology , Calcium Channel Blockers/administration & dosage , Calcium Channel Blockers/adverse effects , Calcium Channel Blockers/therapeutic use , Clozapine/administration & dosage , Clozapine/adverse effects , Drug Therapy, Combination , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Lamotrigine , Middle Aged , Severity of Illness Index , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome , Triazines/administration & dosage , Triazines/adverse effectsABSTRACT
The first successful artificial insemination (AI) in a rhinoceros was reported in 2007 using fresh semen. Following that success, we decided to evaluate the possibility of using frozen-thawed semen for artificial insemination. Semen, collected from a 35-36 year old Southern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum simum) in the UK was frozen using the directional freezing technique. This frozen semen was used in two intrauterine AI attempts on a 30 years old female rhinoceros in Hungary. The first attempt, conducted 30 days postpartum with an insemination dose of approximately 135 x 10(6) motile cells, failed. The second attempt, conducted two estrus cycles later with an insemination dose of approximately 500 x 10(6) motile cells, resulted in pregnancy and the birth of a healthy offspring. This represents the first successful AI using frozen-thawed semen in a rhinoceros, putting it among very few wildlife species in which AI with frozen-thawed semen resulted in a live birth. The incorporation of AI with frozen-thawed semen into the assisted reproduction toolbox opens the way to preserve and transport semen between distant individuals in captivity or between wild and captive populations, without the need to transport stressed or potentially disease carrying animals. In addition, cryopreserved spermatozoa, in combination with AI, are useful methods to extend the reproductive lifespan of individuals beyond their biological lifespan and an important tool for managing genetic diversity in these endangered mammals.
Subject(s)
Cryopreservation/veterinary , Insemination, Artificial/veterinary , Perissodactyla/physiology , Semen Preservation/veterinary , Semen/physiology , Animals , Female , Freezing , Male , Pregnancy , Semen Preservation/methodsABSTRACT
To increase the quality of cryopreserved sperm in white rhinoceros, the liquid nitrogen vapour (LN vapour) freezing and the multi-thermal gradient directional freezing methods were compared. Sixteen white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum sp.) were electro-ejaculated. Semen samples were diluted with cryoextender (Tris, lactose, egg-yolk, DMSO) and aliquoted into straws for LN vapour freezing, and glass hollow tubes for directional freezing. The sperm quality was evaluated before and after freezing by assessing the following parameters: motility, morphologic state, acrosomal integrity and plasma membrane function and integrity (i.e. sperm viability) as defined by the hypo-osmotic swelling. Directional freezing improved the sperm viability by 5.6% (p<0.005), progressive motility score by 34.7% and sperm motility index (SMI) by 8.1% (p<0.005) versus LN vapour freezing. When data was categorized into groups of low (<19%), moderate (20-39%) and high (>40%) percentages of morphologically normal, directional freezing (DF) resulted in 31.4% less abnormal acrosomes for the low quality group as well as 18.7% increase in intact acrosomes and 10.9% increase in motility for the high quality group compared to LN vapour freezing (LN) (p<0.01, p<0.03, p<0.01, respectively). LN showed a significant reduction in sperm head volume (5.7%, p<0.05) compared to the prefreeze; whereas, no significant reduction in head volume was demonstrated after DF. Several additives (xanthenuric acid, cytochalasin D, potassium, EDTA) to the basic cryoextender provided no significant improvement in spermatozoal survival after directional freezing. In conclusion, directional freezing proved to facilitate higher gamete survival compared to LN vapour freezing. This is especially effective in ejaculates of low sperm quality and is important in endangered species where high quality semen donors are often not accessible. These results suggest that directional freezing could be valuable particularly for species with limited freezability of spermatozoa.
Subject(s)
Cryopreservation/veterinary , Perissodactyla , Semen Preservation/veterinary , Animals , Cryopreservation/methods , Cryoprotective Agents , Freezing , Male , NitrogenABSTRACT
Since 1995, 4 suspected cases of Endotheliotropic Elephant Herpes Virus (EEHV) infection, i.e. based on clinical presentation, have occurred in Asia without resulting in epidemic outbreaks as expected. In order to confirm the presence of EEHV on the continent of Asia, viral DNA particles from liver samples of a wild-caught 3-year-old elephant found dead at a Cambodian elephant sanctuary and clinically diagnosed with EEHV, were PCR processed using known EEHV strain primers. The presence of EEHV viral nucleic acids was confirmed and the nucleic acids had a 99% sequence similarity to the U.S.A strain (gene bank locus: AF117265) and 97% sequence similarity to the European strain (gene bank locus: AF354746) assigning this case to the EEHV-1 cluster. More than the confirmation of EEHV on the continent of Asia, is the phylogenic relationship to the USA and European strains with no corresponding contact or transport of USA or European elephants to Asia. Thus, this brings many of the traditional theories into question. Although almost forgotten, this disease is still ramped in captive elephant populations worldwide and continues to devastate particularly the neonatal and weaning-age population. Special attention and continued research are needed specifically in the area of basic virology and epidemiology.
Subject(s)
Elephants/virology , Herpesviridae Infections/veterinary , Herpesviridae/isolation & purification , Animals , Cambodia , DNA, Viral/chemistry , Female , Herpesviridae/genetics , Herpesviridae Infections/diagnosis , Herpesviridae Infections/pathology , Polymerase Chain Reaction/methods , Polymerase Chain Reaction/veterinaryABSTRACT
Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) replicates its circular RNA genome via a rolling circle mechanism. During this process, cis-acting ribozymes cleave adjacent upstream sequences and thereby resolve replication intermediates to unit-length RNA. The subsequent ligation of these 5'OH and 2',3'-cyclic phosphate termini to form circular RNA is an essential step in the life cycle of the virus. Here we present evidence for the involvement of a host activity in the ligation of HDV RNA. We used both HDV and hammerhead ribozymes to generate a panel of HDV and non-HDV RNA substrates that bear 5' hydroxyl and 2', 3'- cyclic phosphate termini. We found that ligation of these substrates occurred in host cells, but not in vitro or in Escherichia coli. The host-specific ligation activity was capable of joining RNA in both bimolecular and intramolecular reactions and functioned in a sequence-independent manner. We conclude that mammalian cells contain a default pathway that efficiently circularizes ribozyme processed RNAs. This pathway could be exploited in the delivery of stable antisense and decoy RNA to the nucleus.
Subject(s)
Hepatitis Delta Virus/genetics , RNA, Catalytic/metabolism , RNA/metabolism , Base Sequence , Blotting, Northern , Cell Line , DNA-Directed RNA Polymerases/metabolism , Humans , Molecular Sequence Data , Mutation , Nucleic Acid Conformation , Polynucleotide Ligases/metabolism , RNA Precursors/metabolism , RNA, Viral/metabolism , Viral ProteinsABSTRACT
Human papillomaviruses (HPVs) are associated with the majority of cervical cancers and encode a transforming protein, E6, that interacts with the tumor suppressor protein p53. Because E6 has p53-independent transforming activity, the yeast two-hybrid system was used to search for other E6-binding proteins. One such protein, E6BP, interacted with cancer-associated HPV E6 and with bovine papillomavirus type 1 (BPV-1) E6. The transforming activity of BPV-1 E6 mutants correlated with their E6BP-binding ability. E6BP is identical to a putative calcium-binding protein, ERC-55, that appears to be localized in the endoplasmic reticulum.