Land management versus natural factors in land instability: some examples in northern Spain.

The objective of this work is to test a hypothesis formulated on the basis of former results which considers that there might be a ''global geomorphic change,'' due to activities related to land management and not determined by climate change, which could be causing an acceleration of geomorphic processes. Possible relationships between some geomorphic processes related to land instability (landslides or sediment generation) and potential triggering factors are analyzed in study areas in northern Spain. The analysis is based on landslide inventories covering different periods, as well as the determination of sedimentation rates. Temporal landslide and sedimentation rate trends are compared with different indicators of human activities (land-use change, logging, forest fires) and with potential natural triggers (rainfall, seismicity). The possible influence of the road network in the distribution of landslides is also analyzed. Results obtained show that there is a general increase of both landslide and sedimentation rates with time that cannot be explained satisfactorily by observed rainfall trends and even less by seismicity. Land use change appears to be by far the main factor leading to land instability, with some changes producing up to a 12-fold increase of landslide rate. A relationship between road network and the spatial distribution of landslides has also been observed. These results do confirm the existence of an acceleration of geomorphic processes in the region, and also suggest that climate-related factors play a limited role in the changes observed.

Natural and human forcing in recent geomorphic change; case studies in the Rio de la Plata basin.

An analysis of geomorphic system's response to change in human and natural drivers in some areas within the Río de la Plata basin is presented. The aim is to determine whether an acceleration of geomorphic processes has taken place in recent years and, if so, to what extent it is due to natural (climate) or human (land-use) drivers. Study areas of different size, socio-economic and geomorphic conditions have been selected: the Río de la Plata estuary and three sub-basins within its watershed. Sediment cores were extracted and dated ((210)Pb) to determine sedimentation rates since the end of the 19th century. Rates were compared with time series on rainfall as well as human drivers such as population, GDP, livestock load, crop area, energy consumption or cement consumption, all of them related to human capacity to disturb land surface. Data on river discharge were also gathered. Results obtained indicate that sedimentation rates during the last century have remained essentially constant in a remote Andean basin, whereas they show important increases in the other two, particularly one located by the São Paulo metropolitan area. Rates in the estuary are somewhere in between. It appears that there is an intensification of denudation/sedimentation processes within the basin. Rainfall remained stable or varied very slightly during the period analysed and does not seem to explain increases of sedimentation rates observed. Human drivers, particularly those more directly related to capacity to disturb land surface (GDP, energy or cement consumption) show variations that suggest human forcing is a more likely explanation for the observed change in geomorphic processes. It appears that a marked increase in denudation, of a "technological" nature, is taking place in this basin and leading to an acceleration of sediment supply. This is coherent with similar increases observed in other regions.

Landslide risk models for decision making.

This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at risk), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the models are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis.